Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Nuclear Weapons as Symbols. The Role of Norms in Nuclear Policy Making

Throughout history, nuclear weapons have been considered to be the ultimate weapons. This understanding largely detached them from the portfolio of conventional military means and assigned them a symbolic meaning that influenced the identity and norms creation of nations. In most countries today, the development of nuclear weapons is considered morally prohibitive, incompatible with a country’s identity and international outlook. In some states, however, these negative norms are overridden by a positive set of norms, causing nuclear weapons to become either symbols of invulnerability to perceived threats or the regalia of major power status. Main purpose of this paper is to explore on the conditions that cause most states to develop a moral aversion to nuclear weapons, yet effectively lead to their glorification in others. Many studies on the normative understanding of nuclear weapons consider the existence of a negative normative predisposition, often referred to as ‘nuclear taboo’, as a major factor in preventing their acquisition and use. Other studies acknowledge the existence of a nuclear taboo inhibiting the use of nuclear weapons, but point to the existence of the opposing effect of norms, frequently referred to as the ‘nuclear myth’, when it comes to the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This myth emerges when certain symbolic meanings are attached to nuclear weapons, such as a state’s identity, self-image, and its desired position in the international system. With 180 odd countries in the world abstaining from the acquisition of nuclear weapons and 8 countries in possession of them (with two further countries assumed to have pursued their acquisition), one might consider the dominance of the nuclear taboo over the nuclear myth to be the rule. The core question is thus why and how this relationship reversed in the case of defectors.

Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.

Behavior of endogenous tumor-associated macrophages assessed in vivo using a functionalized nanoparticle.

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) invade the tumor stroma in many cancers, yet their role is incompletely understood. To visualize and better understand these critical cells in tumor progression, we screened a portfolio of rationally selected, injectable agents to image endogenous TAMs ubiquitously in three different cancer models (colon carcinoma, lung adenocarcinoma, and soft tissue sarcoma). AMTA680, a functionally derivatized magneto-fluorescent nanoparticle, labeled a subset of myeloid cells with an "M2" macrophage phenotype, whereas other neighboring cells, including tumor cells and a variety of other leukocytes, remained unlabeled. We further show that AMTA680-labeled endogenous TAMs are not altered and can be tracked noninvasively at different resolutions and using various imaging modalities, e.g., fluorescence molecular tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and multiphoton and confocal intravital microscopy. Quantitative assessment of TAM distribution and activity in vivo identified that these cells cluster in delimited foci within tumors, show relatively low motility, and extend cytoplasmic protrusions for prolonged physical interactions with neighboring tumor cells. Noninvasive imaging can also be used to monitor TAM-depleting regimen quantitatively. Thus, AMTA680 or related cell-targeting agents represent appropriate injectable vehicles for in vivo analysis of the tumor microenvironment.

A Comparative analysis of oil production setors in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

Aquest article s'aplica un enfocament comparatiu de la gestió del sector petrolier en dos països rics en petroli a l'Orient Mitjà: Aràbia Saudita i els Emirats Àrabs Units (EAU). Més explícitament, s'examinen els factors que millor expliquen la variació en les estratègies que han vingut aplicant en el sector des de l'establiment de les seves empreses petrolieres nacionals (NOC). Recorrent a la literatura sobre expropiació / privatització en el camp d'Estudis de l'Energia, en aquest treball es proposa un marc teòric per analitzar la lògica que hi ha al darrera de les diferents formes d'exploració i les estratègies de producció en el sector petrolier. Teòricament, aquesta investigació té com a objectiu avançar en un conjunt d'eines d'anàlisi per abordar millor i entendre els determinants reals del procés de presa de decisions en el upstream. Empíricament, el model es prova en els casos divergents d'Aràbia Saudita i els Emirats Àrabs Units, i una sèrie de lliçons s'han extret. En última instància, aquest treball ha d'augmentar la conscienciació entre els erudits i els polític, tant sobre el poc coneixement que tenim sobre els mecanismes interns que impulsen les estratègies ascendents en el majors estats productor de petroli.

Constraints on the permeability structure of alluvial aquifers from P-wave sonic logs

Modern sonic logging tools designed for shallow environmental and engineering applications allow for P-wave phase velocity measurements over a wide frequency band. Methodological considerations indicate that, for saturated unconsolidated sediments in the silt to sand range and source frequencies ranging from approximately 1 to 30 kHz, the observable poro-elastic P-wave velocity dispersion is sufficiently pronounced to allow for reliable first-order estimations of the underlying permeability structure. These predictions have been tested on and verified for a surficial alluvial aquifer. Our results indicate that, even without any further calibration, the thus obtained permeability estimates as well as their variabilities within the pertinent lithological units are remarkably close to those expected based on the corresponding granulometric characteristics.

Bitumens in the late Variscan hydrothermal vein-type uranium deposit of Pribram, Czech Republic: Sources, radiation-induced alteration, and relation to mineralization

The late Variscan (275-278 Ma) Pribram uranium deposit is one of the largest known accumulations of uraniferous bitumens in hydrothermal veins. The deposit extends along the northwestern boundary of the Central Bohemian pluton (345-335 Ma) with low-grade metamorphosed Late Proterozoic and unmetamorphosed Cambrian rocks. From a net uranium production of 41,742 metric tons (t), more than 6,000 t were extracted from bitumen-uraninite ores during 43 years of exploration and mining. Three morphological varieties of solid bitumen are recognized: globular, asphaltlike, and cokelike. While the globular bitumen is uranium free, the other two types are uraniferous. The amount of bitumen in ore veins gradually decreases toward the contact with the plutonic body and increases with depth. Two types of bitumen microtextures are recognized using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy: amorphous and microporous, the former being less common in uraniferous samples. A lower Raman peak area ratio (1,360/1,575 cm(-1)) in mineralized bitumens (0.9) compared with uranium-free samples (2.0) indicates a lower degree of microtextural organization in the latter The H/C and O/C atomic ratios in uranium-free bitumens (0.9-1.1 and 0.09, respectively) are higher than those in mineralized samples (H/C = 0.3-0.8, O/C = 0.03-0.09). The chloroform extractable matter yield is Very low in uranium-free bitumens (0.30-0.35% of the total organic carbon,TOC) and decreases with uranium content increase. The extracted solid uraniferous bitumen infrared spectra show depletion in aliphatic CH2 and CH3 groups compared to uranium-free samples. The concentration of oxygen-bearing functional groups relative to aromatic bonds in the IR spectra of uranium-free and mineralized bitumen, however, do not differ significantly. C-13 NMR confirmed than the aromaticity of a uraniferous sample is higher (F-ar = 0.61) than in the uranium-free bitumen (F-ar = 0.51). Pyrolysates from uraniferous and nonuraniferous bitumens do not differ significantly, being predominantly cresol, alkylphenols, alkylbenzenes, and alkylnaphthalenes. The liquid pyrolysate yield decreases significantly with increasing uranium content. The delta(13)C Values of bulk uranium-free bitumens and low-grade uraniferous, asphaltlike bitumens range from -43.6 to 52.3 per mil. High-grade, cokelike, uraniferous bitumens are more C-13 depleted (54.5 to -58.4 parts per thousand). In contrast to the very light isotopic ratios of the high-grade uraniferous cokelike bitumen bulk carbon, the individual n-alkanes and isoprenoids (pristane and phytane) extracted from the same sample are significantly C-13 enriched. The isotopic composition of the C13-24 n-alkanes extracted from the high-grade uraniferous sample (delta(13)C = -28.0 to 32.6 parts per thousand) are heavier compared with the same compounds in a uranium-free sample (delta(13)C = 31.9 to 33.8 parts per thousand). It is proposed that the bitumen source was the isotopically light (delta(13)C = 35.8 to 30.2 parts per thousand) organic matter of the Upper Proterozoic host rocks that were pyrolyzed during intrusion of the Central Bohemian pluton. The C-13- depleted pyrolysates were mobilized from the innermost part of the contact-metamorphic aureole, accumulated in structural traps in less thermally influenced parts of the sedimentary complex and were later extracted by hydrothermal fluids. Bitumens at the Pribram deposit are younger than the main part of the uranium mineralization and were formed through water-washing and radiation-induced polymerization of both the gaseous and liquid pyrolysates. Direct evidence for pyrolysate reduction of uranium in the hydrothermal system is difficult to obtain as the chemical composition of the original organic fluid phase was modified during water-washing and radiolytic alteration. However, indirect evidence-e.g., higher O/C atomic ratios in uranium-free bitumens (0.1) relative to the Upper Proterozoic source rocks (0.02-0.05), isotopically very light carbon in associated whewellite (delta(13)C = 31.7 to -28.4 parts per thousand), and the striking absence of bitumens in the pre-uranium, hematite stage of the mineralization-indicates that oxidation of organic fluids may have contributed to lowering of aO(2) and uraninite precipitation.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Joint inversion of crosshole GPR and seismic traveltime data

Joint inversion of crosshole ground-penetrating radar and seismic data can improve model resolution and fidelity of the resultant individual models. Model coupling obtained by minimizing or penalizing some measure of structural dissimilarity between models appears to be the most versatile approach because only weak assumptions about petrophysical relationships are required. Nevertheless, experimental results and petrophysical arguments suggest that when porosity variations are weak in saturated unconsolidated environments, then radar wave speed is approximately linearly related to seismic wave speed. Under such circumstances, model coupling also can be achieved by incorporating cross-covariances in the model regularization. In two case studies, structural similarity is imposed by penalizing models for which the model cross-gradients are nonzero. A first case study demonstrates improvements in model resolution by comparing the resulting models with borehole information, whereas a second case study uses point-spread functions. Although radar seismic wavespeed crossplots are very similar for the two case studies, the models plot in different portions of the graph, suggesting variances in porosity. Both examples display a close, quasilinear relationship between radar seismic wave speed in unconsolidated environments that is described rather well by the corresponding lower Hashin-Shtrikman (HS) bounds. Combining crossplots of the joint inversion models with HS bounds can constrain porosity and pore structure better than individual inversion results can.

Offering planning with support of roadmapping in project business

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia kuinka roadmapping-tekniikkaa voidaan käyttää tarjonnan suunnittelun tukena uusien tuotteiden valmistamisen yhteydessä. Työ koostuu teoreettisesta ja käytännönläheisestä osasta. Teoreettinen runko on luotu selventämään kuinka tämän hetkisen tutkimus- ja kehitys projektit lopulta muodostavat tulevaisuuden tarjoaman. Menestyksekkään tuotetarjoaman luominen vaatii, sekä uusien teknologioiden kehittämistä, että markkinoilla olevien asiakkaiden tarpeiden ymmärtämistä. Asiakassuuntaisten tuotteiden kehittäminen vaatii toimintaympäristöstä ja asiakasrajapinnasta tulevien signaalien tunnistamista ja niiden ohjaamista tuote- ja teknologia platformeille. Strategia luodaan tukemaan päätöksentekoa prosessin eri vaiheissa. Yrityskohtainen osio koostuu analyysistä, joka on tehty teetetyn kyselyn ja haas-tattelujen pohjalta. Osana analyysia ovat Major project-yksikön tämänhetkinen tarjonnansuunnitteluprosessi, strategian soveltaminen, informaation kerääminen ja priorisointi, portfolionhallinta ja roadmap-tekniikan käyttö. Ratkaisussa on esitet-ty tarjonnan suunnitteluprosessi ja siihen liittyvät kriittiset komponentit. Roadmapping-tekniikkaaon luotu yhdistämään toimintaympäristö, tuotteet ja teknologia toisiinsa. Toimintaympäristö ja tuotteet on yhdistetty myös linked-grids-tekniikan avulla.

Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Brief report : Academic amotivation in light of the dark side of identity formation

The study intended to determine motivational profiles of first-year undergraduates and aimed their characterization in terms of identity processes. First, a cluster analysis revealed five motivational profiles: combined (i.e., high quantity of motivation, low amotivation); intrinsic (i.e., high intrinsic, low introjected and external regulation, low amotivation); "demotivated" (i.e., very low quantity of motivation and amotivation); extrinsic (i.e., high extrinsic and identified regulation and low intrinsic and amotivation); and "amotivated" (i.e., low intrinsic and identified, very high amotivation). Second, using Lebart's (2000) methodology, the most characteristic identity processes were listed for each motivational cluster. Demotivated and amotivated profiles were refined in terms of adaptive and maladaptive forms of exploration. Notably, exploration in breadth and in depth were underrepresented in demotivated students compared to the total sample; commitment and ruminative exploration were under and overrepresented respectively in amotivated students. Educational and clinical implications are proposedand future research is suggested.

Química Sem Fronteiras: o desafio da energia

Coal, natural gas and petroleum-based liquid fuels are still the most widely used energy sources in modern society. The current scenario contrasts with the foreseen shortage of petroleum that was spread out in the beginning of the XXI century, when the concept of "energy security" emerged as an urgent agenda to ensure a good balance between energy supply and demand. Much beyond protecting refineries and oil ducts from terrorist attacks, these issues soon developed to a portfolio of measures related to process sustainability, involving at least three fundamental dimensions: (a) the need for technological breakthroughs to improve energy production worldwide; (b) the improvement of energy efficiency in all sectors of modern society; and (c) the increase of the social perception that education is a key-word towards a better use of our energy resources. Together with these technological, economic or social issues, "energy security" is also strongly influenced by environmental issues involving greenhouse gas emissions, loss of biodiversity in environmentally sensitive areas, pollution and poor solid waste management. For these and other reasons, the implementation of more sustainable practices in our currently available industrial facilities and the search for alternative energy sources that could partly replace the fossil fuels became a major priority throughout the world. Regarding fossil fuels, the main technological bottlenecks are related to the exploitation of less accessible petroleum resources such as those in the pre-salt layer, ranging from the proper characterization of these deep-water oil reservoirs, the development of lighter and more efficient equipment for both exploration and exploitation, the optimization of the drilling techniques, the achievement of further improvements in production yields and the establishment of specialized training programs for the technical staff. The production of natural gas from shale is also emerging in several countries but its production in large scale has several problems ranging from the unavoidable environmental impact of shale mining as well as to the bad consequences of its large scale exploitation in the past. The large scale use of coal has similar environmental problems, which are aggravated by difficulties in its proper characterization. Also, the mitigation of harmful gases and particulate matter that are released as a result of combustion is still depending on the development of new gas cleaning technologies including more efficient catalysts to improve its emission profile. On the other hand, biofuels are still struggling to fulfill their role in reducing our high dependence on fossil fuels. Fatty acid alkyl esters (biodiesel) from vegetable oils and ethanol from cane sucrose and corn starch are mature technologies whose market share is partially limited by the availability of their raw materials. For this reason, there has been a great effort to develop "second-generation" technologies to produce methanol, ethanol, butanol, biodiesel, biogas (methane), bio-oils, syngas and synthetic fuels from lower grade renewable feedstocks such as lignocellulosic materials whose consumption would not interfere with the rather sensitive issues of food security. Advanced fermentation processes are envisaged as "third generation" technologies and these are primarily linked to the use of algae feedstocks as well as other organisms that could produce biofuels or simply provide microbial biomass for the processes listed above. Due to the complexity and cost of their production chain, "third generation" technologies usually aim at high value added biofuels such as biojet fuel, biohydrogen and hydrocarbons with a fuel performance similar to diesel or gasoline, situations in which the use of genetically modified organisms is usually required. In general, the main challenges in this field could be summarized as follows: (a) the need for prospecting alternative sources of biomass that are not linked to the food chain; (b) the intensive use of green chemistry principles in our current industrial activities; (c) the development of mature technologies for the production of second and third generation biofuels; (d) the development of safe bioprocesses that are based on environmentally benign microorganisms; (e) the scale-up of potential technologies to a suitable demonstration scale; and (f) the full understanding of the technological and environmental implications of the food vs. fuel debate. On the basis of these, the main objective of this article is to stimulate the discussion and help the decision making regarding "energy security" issues and their challenges for modern society, in such a way to encourage the participation of the Brazilian Chemistry community in the design of a road map for a safer, sustainable and prosper future for our nation.