Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.

Essays in optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints

This thesis brings together four papers on optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints. The first is an extension of the Arrow-Debreu contingent claim model to a good subject to supply uncertainty for which delivery capacity has to be chosen before the uncertainty is resolved. The second compares an ex-ante contingent claims market to a dynamic market in which capacity is chosen ex-ante and output and consumption decisions are made ex-post. The third extends the analysis to a storable good subject to random supply. Finally, the fourth examines optimal allocation of water under an appropriative rights system.

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models. © 2010 Nagengast et al.

Design and path planning for a remote-brained service robot

This paper presents a novel robot named "TUT03-A" with expert systems, speech interaction, vision systems etc. based on remote-brained approach. The robot is designed to have the brain and body separated. There is a cerebellum in the body. The brain with the expert systems is in charge of decision and the cerebellum control motion of the body. The brain-body. interface has many kinds of structure. It enables a brain to control one or more cerebellums. The brain controls all modules in the system and coordinates their work. The framework of the robot allows us to carry out different kinds of robotics research in an environment that can be shared and inherited over generations. Then we discuss the path planning method for the robot based on ant colony algorithm. The mathematical model is established and the algorithm is achieved with the Starlogo simulating environment. The simulation result shows that it has strong robustness and eligible pathfinding efficiency.

Design and path planning for a remote-brained service robot

This article introduced an effective design method of robot called remote-brain, which is made the brain and body separated. It leaves the brain in the mother environment, by which we mean the environment in which the brain's software is developed, and talks with its body by wireless links. It also presents a real robot TUT06-B based on this method which has human-machine interaction, vision systems, manipulator etc. Then it discussed the path planning method for the robot based on ant colony algorithm in details, especially the Ant-cycle model. And it also analyzed the parameter of the algorithm which can affect the convergence. Finally, it gives the program flow chat of this algorithm.

a real-time path planning approach without the computation of cspace obstacles

An important concept proposed in the early stage of robot path planning field is the shrinking of the robot to a point and meanwhile expanding of the obstacles in the workspace as a set of new obstacles. The resulting grown obstacles are called the Configuration Space (Cspace) obstacles. The find-path problem is then transformed into that of finding a collision free path for a point robot among the Cspace obstacles. However, the research experiences obtained so far have shown that the calculation of the Cspace obstacles is very hard work when the following situations occur: 1. both the robot and obstacles are not polygons and 2. the robot is allowed to rotate. This situation is even worse when the robot and obstacles are three dimensional (3D) objects with various shapes. Obviously a direct path planning approach without the calculation of the Cspace obstacles is strongly needed. This paper presents such a new real-time robot path planning approach which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first one in the robotic community. The fundamental ideas are the utilization of inequality and optimization technique. Simulation results have been presented to show its merits.

Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty

Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has received little previous attention. We present a framework for computing motion strategies that are guaranteed to succeed in the presence of all three kinds of uncertainty. The motion strategies comprise sensor-based gross motions, compliant motions, and simple pushing motions.