936 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability


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Natural gas, although basically composed by light hydrocarbons, also presents in its composition gaseous contaminants such as CO2 (carbon dioxide) and H2S (hydrogen sulfide). Hydrogen sulfide, which commonly occurs in oil and gas exploration and production activities, besides being among the gases that are responsible by the acid rain and greenhouse effect, can also cause serious harm to health, leading even to death, and damages to oil and natural gas pipelines. Therefore, the removal of hydrogen sulfide will significantly reduce operational costs and will result in oil with best quality to be sent to refinery, thereby resulting in economical, environmental, and social benefits. These factors highlight the need for the development and improvement of hydrogen sulfide sequestrating agents to be used in the oil industry. Nowadays there are several procedures for hydrogen sulfide removal from natural gas used by the petroleum industry. However, they produce derivatives of amines that are harmful to the distillation towers, form insoluble precipitates that cause pipe clogging and produce wastes of high environmental impact. Therefore, the obtaining of a stable system, in inorganic or organic reaction media, that is able to remove hydrogen sulfide without forming by-products that affect the quality and costs of natural gas processing, transport and distribution is of great importance. In this context, the evaluation of the kinetics of H2S removal is a valuable procedure for the treatment of natural gas and disposal of the byproducts generated by the process. This evaluation was made in an absorption column packed with Raschig ring, where natural gas with H2S passes through a stagnant solution, being the contaminant absorbed by it. The content of H2S in natural gas in column output was monitored by an H2S analyzer. The comparison between the obtained curves and the study of the involved reactions have not only allowed to determine the efficiency and mass transfer controlling step of the involved processes but also make possible to effect a more detailed kinetic study and evaluate the commercial potential of each reagent

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Macroalgal species richness and diversity were analysed along a longitudinal profile in small and large scales during Spring, Fall and Winter, respectively in a small stream and a mid size river in the northwest region of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil (20 degrees 23'-20 degrees 49'S, 49 degrees 26'-51 degrees 19'W). Longitudinal variation in species richness and diversity in small scale was strongly associated with incident light. Microhabitat distribution (from data taken by quadrat technique) revealed no significant correlations. Principal coordinates analysis (PCO) indicated no consistent groupings among sampling sites in distinct seasons (Spring, Fall and Winter). Longitudinal analysis in large scale revealed different patterns in the two seasons sampled (Spring and Winter), whereas species diversity presented a consistent tl end: high upstream, low in mid reaches and higher downstream. It was associated with type of substratum in Spring, rocky substrata presenting the highest values for species richness and diversity. Weak correlations were observed in Winter. Microhabitat distribution showed significant correlations between species abundance and the following variables: positive for rocky substrata and current velocity and negative for sandyclayish substratum and macrophyte-dominated substratum. PCO delineated only one consistent grouping formed by the two headwater sites. Small scale macroalgal distribution corroborated the longitudinal pattern predicted by the River Continuum Concept, whereas the large scale approach showed a distribution more associated with substratum type than to light availability. These results showed an opposite trend in relation to the expected distributional pattern. Longitudinal distribution in macroalgal community structure has yet to be better documented, particularly for tropical streams and no generalization is possible at this stage.

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This work describes the development of a new program, named SISTAX, for the expert system SISTEMAT. This program allows anyone interested in chemotaxonomy to carry out an intelligent search for organic compounds in databases through chemical structures. When coupled with can efficient encoding system, the program recognizes skeletal types and can find any substructural constraints demanded by the user. An example of an application of the program to the diterpene class found in plants is described.

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The objective of this work was to identify the spatial variability of the natural erosion potential, soil loss and erosion risk in two intensely cultivated areas, in order to assess the erosion occurrence patterns. The soil of the area located at Monte Alto, São Paulo state, was classified as Paleudalf (PVA) with moderately slope, with different managements. The soil of the area located at Jaboticabal, São Paulo state, was classified as Haplortox(LV) with gentle slope and cultivated with sugarcane. A irregular grid was imposed on the experimental areas. Soil samples were obtained from 0-0.2 m depth at each grid point: 88 samples in Monte Alto area (1465 ha) and 128 samples at Jaboticabal area (2597 ha). In order to obtain the values of the studied variables USLE was applied at each grid point. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and geoestatistical analyses were performed for defining semivariograms. Kriging techniques to develop map showing spatial patterns in variability of selected soil attributes were used. All variables showed spatial dependence. The PVA soil showed higher erosion risk due to the slope and atual management compared to the soil LV.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Avaliar a espacialização de informações na gestão de Sistema de Abastecimento de Água (SAA). Para isso, foram definidos e adotados os dados da pesquisa (Fase 1), sendo dividido em dados de perdas reais, comerciais e Despesas de exploração. Na Fase 2, a base cartográfica da área de estudo e os dados adotados foram armazenados e organizados em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), utilizando o software ArcGis 9.3, onde foi construído o modelo de dados para a pesquisa, e definida a topologia a ser utilizada para identificação dos dados espacializados, a construção do banco de dados georreferenciado e a criação dos layers. Na fase 3 foi realizado o cálculo do balanço hídrico nas principais unidades dos SAAs estudados sendo determinadas as perdas na adução de água bruta, no tratamento, na reservação, e na distribuição. Na fase 4 foram calculados indicadores para avaliar o desempenho dos SAAs, como: índice de cobertura, índice total de perda real, índice de perda na arrecadação, índice de perda de faturamento, índice de consumo de energia em SAA, índice de despesas com energia elétrica, entre outros. Na fase 5 foi proposta a espacialização e apresentação em SIG dos resultados obtidos nas fases anteriores. Com isso, considerando os dados adotados, foi possível identificar os valores das perdas reais e dos indicadores de desempenho em cada setor do SAA estudado, sendo, por exemplo, o setor 9, o que apresentou maior índice de perda total, chegando a 59,10%, seguido dos setores 4, 8 e 5. A perda mais significante para o sistema foi a perda na distribuição, com o setor 9 apresentando perda de 57%; a perda no tratamento foi de 3,4%, no setor 3; e os setores com maior índice de perda na adução, foram os setores 6 e 8, com 3,5%. Os percentuais de água não faturada, foram maiores nos setores 1 e 5. Os setores 1, 3, 4 e 6 são os que apresentaram maior consumo de energia elétrica por volume de água produzido. Portanto, a espacialização dos dados em SIG facilitou a visualização e análise dos dados adotados na pesquisa.

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In this paper we introduce an extension of the Lindley distribution which offers a more flexible model for lifetime data. Several statistical properties of the distribution are explored, such as the density, (reversed) failure rate, (reversed) mean residual lifetime, moments, order statistics, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves. Estimation using the maximum likelihood and inference of a random sample from the distribution are investigated. A real data application illustrates the performance of the distribution. (C) 2011 The Korean Statistical Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.

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Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of two screening methods (imitanciometry screening and questionnaire) to identify children at risk for conductive hearing loss, comparing this data with complete audiologic evaluation. Methods Of 507 children aged between three and six, 111 completed all procedures. The observational methods used were: imitanciometry screening, a questionnaire to identify risk factors for hearing loss and complete audiologic evaluation. Results obtained in the first two instruments were compared with results from complete audiologic evaluation (gold standard). From these comparisons, sensitivity and specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and odds ratio were determined for the two screening methods and for the combination of both methods. Results The two methods applied in series (questionnaire and after imitanciometry screening) showed a greater odds ratio and better correlation between sensitivity and proportion of false-positives (ROC curve). Conclusion Combining the two tests in series improved screening accuracy. This combination was the best tool for identifying children at risk for conductive hearing loss.

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The interpretation of the effect of plastic deformation on the calculated excess loss component (anomalous-loss) supports the concept of loss separation. Magnetic losses and Barkhausen noise of nonoriented electrical steel sheets were measured on Epstein strips taken from a single coil of 0.8% Si nonoriented electrical steel. Sheets were extracted in the annealed condition, without any skin pass and with a grain size of 18 mu m. This material was cold rolled in order to obtain sets of samples with true strain from 2% up to 29%. X-ray diffraction was used to estimate the dislocation density. The analysis of magnetic properties was performed by Barkhausen noise measurements and also by analyzing the hysteresis loops obtained from Epstein frame measurements for different inductions and different frequencies (including the quasi-static regime for hysteresis loss measurements). These data allowed us to observe that most of the well known total loss increase with plastic deformation is due to an increase in the hysteresis loss component, while excess loss decreases to become negligible. This behavior can be explained if it is assumed that the plastic deformation lead to an increase in the number of domain walls per unit volume, thereby decreasing the excess loss. Barkhausen peak area increases with plastic deformation, reproducing results taken from samples of different silicon content.

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We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

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„Risikomaße in der Finanzmathematik“ Der Value-at -Risk (VaR) ist ein Risikomaß, dessen Verwendung von der Bankenaufsicht gefordert wird. Der Vorteil des VaR liegt – als Quantil der Ertrags- oder Verlustverteilung - vor allem in seiner einfachen Interpretierbarkeit. Nachteilig ist, dass der linke Rand der Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung nicht beachtet wird. Darüber hinaus ist die Berechnung des VaR schwierig, da Quantile nicht additiv sind. Der größte Nachteil des VaR ist in der fehlenden Subadditivität zu sehen. Deswegen werden Alternativen wie Expected Shortfall untersucht. In dieser Arbeit werden zunächst finanzielle Risikomaße eingeführt und einige ihre grundlegenden Eigenschaften festgehalten. Wir beschäftigen uns mit verschiedenen parametrischen und nichtparametrischen Methoden zur Ermittlung des VaR, unter anderen mit ihren Vorteilen und Nachteilen. Des Weiteren beschäftigen wir uns mit parametrischen und nichtparametrischen Schätzern vom VaR in diskreter Zeit. Wir stellen Portfoliooptimierungsprobleme im Black Scholes Modell mit beschränktem VaR und mit beschränkter Varianz vor. Der Vorteil des erstens Ansatzes gegenüber dem zweiten wird hier erläutert. Wir lösen Nutzenoptimierungsprobleme in Bezug auf das Endvermögen mit beschränktem VaR und mit beschränkter Varianz. VaR sagt nichts über den darüber hinausgehenden Verlust aus, während dieser von Expected Shortfall berücksichtigt wird. Deswegen verwenden wir hier den Expected Shortfall anstelle des von Emmer, Korn und Klüppelberg (2001) betrachteten Risikomaßes VaR für die Optimierung des Portfolios im Black Scholes Modell.