935 resultados para Forecast combination


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Conceptual modelling continues to be an important means for graphically capturing the requirements of an information system. Observations of modelling practice suggest that modellers often use multiple conceptual models in combination, because they articulate different aspects of real-world domains. Yet, the available empirical as well as theoretical research in this area has largely studied the use of single models, or single modelling grammars. We develop a Theory of Combined Ontological Coverage by extending an existing theory of ontological expressiveness of conceptual modelling grammars. Our new theory posits that multiple conceptual models are used to increase the maximum coverage of the real-world domain being modelled, whilst trying to minimize the ontological overlap between the models. We illustrate how the theory can be applied to analyse sets of conceptual models. We develop three propositions of the theory about evaluations of model combinations in terms of users’ selection, understandability and usefulness of conceptual models.

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The combination of thermally- and photochemically-induced polymerization using light sensitive alkoxyamines was investigated. The thermally driven polymerizations were performed via the cleavage of the alkoxyamine functionality, whereas the photochemically-induced polymerizations were carried out either by nitroxide mediated photo-polymerization (NMP2) or by a classical type II mechanism, depending on the structure of the light-sensitive alkoxyamine employed. Once the potential of the various structures as initiators of thermally- and photo-induced polymerizations was established, their use in combination for block copolymer syntheses was investigated. With each alkoxyamine investigated, block copolymers were successfully obtained and the system was applied to the post-modification of polymer coatings for application in patterning and photografting.

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Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are appropriate for case management, but persistent antigenaemia is a concern for HRP2-detecting RDTs in endemic areas. It has been suggested that pan-pLDH test bands on combination RDTs could be used to distinguish persistent antigenaemia from active Plasmodium falciparum infection, however this assumes all active infections produce positive results on both bands of RDTs, an assertion that has not been demonstrated. Methods: In this study, data generated during the WHO-FIND product testing programme for malaria RDTs was reviewed to investigate the reactivity of individual test bands against P. falciparum in 18 combination RDTs. Each product was tested against multiple wild-type P. falciparum only samples. Antigen levels were measured by quantitative ELISA for HRP2, pLDH and aldolase. Results: When tested against P. falciparum samples at 200 parasites/μL, 92% of RDTs were positive; 57% of these on both the P. falciparum and pan bands, while 43% were positive on the P. falciparum band only. There was a relationship between antigen concentration and band positivity; ≥4 ng/mL of HRP2 produced positive results in more than 95% of P. falciparum bands, while ≥45 ng/mL of pLDH was required for at least 90% of pan bands to be positive. Conclusions: In active P. falciparum infections it is common for combination RDTs to return a positive HRP2 band combined with a negative pan-pLDH band, and when both bands are positive, often the pan band is faint. Thus active infections could be missed if the presence of a HRP2 band in the absence of a pan band is interpreted as being caused solely by persistent antigenaemia.

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This thesis presents a promising boundary setting method for solving challenging issues in text classification to produce an effective text classifier. A classifier must identify boundary between classes optimally. However, after the features are selected, the boundary is still unclear with regard to mixed positive and negative documents. A classifier combination method to boost effectiveness of the classification model is also presented. The experiments carried out in the study demonstrate that the proposed classifier is promising.

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Background The expression of biomass-degrading enzymes (such as cellobiohydrolases) in transgenic plants has the potential to reduce the costs of biomass saccharification by providing a source of enzymes to supplement commercial cellulase mixtures. Cellobiohydrolases are the main enzymes in commercial cellulase mixtures. In the present study, a cellobiohydrolase was expressed in transgenic corn stover leaf and assessed as an additive for two commercial cellulase mixtures for the saccharification of pretreated sugar cane bagasse obtained by different processes. Results Recombinant cellobiohydrolase in the senescent leaves of transgenic corn was extracted using a simple buffer with no concentration step. The extract significantly enhanced the performance of Celluclast 1.5 L (a commercial cellulase mixture) by up to fourfold on sugar cane bagasse pretreated at the pilot scale using a dilute sulfuric acid steam explosion process compared to the commercial cellulase mixture on its own. Also, the extracts were able to enhance the performance of Cellic CTec2 (a commercial cellulase mixture) up to fourfold on a range of residues from sugar cane bagasse pretreated at the laboratory (using acidified ethylene carbonate/ethylene glycol, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, and ball-milling) and pilot (dilute sodium hydroxide and glycerol/hydrochloric acid steam explosion) scales. We have demonstrated using tap water as a solvent (under conditions that mimic an industrial process) extraction of about 90% recombinant cellobiohydrolase from senescent, transgenic corn stover leaf that had minimal tissue disruption. Conclusions The accumulation of recombinant cellobiohydrolase in senescent, transgenic corn stover leaf is a viable strategy to reduce the saccharification cost associated with the production of fermentable sugars from pretreated biomass. We envisage an industrial-scale process in which transgenic plants provide both fibre and biomass-degrading enzymes for pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis, respectively.

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Twelve patients with primary small intestinal lymphoma were followed prospectively for 3 years. Endoscopic abnormalities were diagnostic of lymphoma in all cases where the duodenum was involved (83%). In three cases (25%) the disease extended to the stomach. One patient (8%) had diffuse small cell cleaved and 11 (92%) diffuse large cell lymphoma stages I (8%), II (25%), III (58%) and IV (8%). Nine of them were unresectable and primarily treated with combination chemotherapy; 67% achieved complete remission, 22% partial response and 11% no response. Only one patient relapsed and achieved a second remission. All complete remission patients are currently alive and free of disease at a median follow-up of 36 months. Overall survival for all patients is 58%, and disease-free survival is 50%. No instance of chemotherapy-related bleeding or perforation was seen. Tetracycline was necessary for the treatment of IPSID-associated diarrhea and malabsorption in spite of cytotoxic chemotherapy.

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BACKGROUND Bronchiectasis is a major contributor to chronic respiratory morbidity and mortality worldwide. Wheeze and other asthma-like symptoms and bronchial hyperreactivity may occur in people with bronchiectasis. Physicians often use asthma treatments in patients with bronchiectasis. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of inhaled long-acting beta2-agonists (LABA) combined with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in children and adults with bronchiectasis during (1) acute exacerbations and (2) stable state. SEARCH METHODS The Cochrane Airways Group searched the the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, which includes records identified from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and other databases. The Cochrane Airways Group performed the latest searches in October 2013. SELECTION CRITERIA All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of combined ICS and LABA compared with a control (placebo, no treatment, ICS as monotherapy) in children and adults with bronchiectasis not related to cystic fibrosis (CF). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors extracted data independently using standard methodological procedures as expected by The Cochrane Collaboration. MAIN RESULTS We found no RCTs comparing ICS and LABA combination with either placebo or usual care. We included one RCT that compared combined ICS and LABA with high-dose ICS in 40 adults with non-CF bronchiectasis without co-existent asthma. All participants received three months of high-dose budesonide dipropionate treatment (1600 micrograms). After three months, participants were randomly assigned to receive either high-dose budesonide dipropionate (1600 micrograms per day) or a combination of budesonide with formoterol (640 micrograms of budesonide and 18 micrograms of formoterol) for three months. The study was not blinded. We assessed it to be an RCT with overall high risk of bias. Data analysed in this review showed that those who received combined ICS-LABA (in stable state) had a significantly better transition dyspnoea index (mean difference (MD) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 2.18) and cough-free days (MD 12.30, 95% CI 2.38 to 22.2) compared with those receiving ICS after three months of treatment. No significant difference was noted between groups in quality of life (MD -4.57, 95% CI -12.38 to 3.24), number of hospitalisations (odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.02 to 2.79) or lung function (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)). Investigators reported 37 adverse events in the ICS group versus 12 events in the ICS-LABA group but did not mention the number of individuals experiencing adverse events. Hence differences between groups were not included in the analyses. We assessed the overall evidence to be low quality. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS In adults with bronchiectasis without co-existent asthma, during stable state, a small single trial with a high risk of bias suggests that combined ICS-LABA may improve dyspnoea and increase cough-free days in comparison with high-dose ICS. No data are provided for or against, the use of combined ICS-LABA in adults with bronchiectasis during an acute exacerbation, or in children with bronchiectasis in a stable or acute state. The absence of high quality evidence means that decisions to use or discontinue combined ICS-LABA in people with bronchiectasis may need to take account of the presence or absence of co-existing airway hyper-responsiveness and consideration of adverse events associated with combined ICS-LABA.

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Substantial progress has been achieved in antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B; however, options for women of child-bearing age with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B remain a challenge. In this study, we sought to determine whether de novo combination therapy of Adefovir plus Lamivudine was a super treatment for women of child-bearing age with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B prior to conception. A total of 122 women patients of child-bearing age with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B were randomly assigned to receive (i) 10 mg Adefovir plus 100 mg Lamivudine (64 patients) or (ii) 10 mg Adefovir monotherapy (58 patients), administrated orally once daily for 96 weeks. The therapeutic efficacy within each group was compared at weeks 48 and 96. The results showed that de novo combination therapy of Adefovir plus Lamivudine significantly reduced HBV-DNA detectability, and enhanced ALT normalization and HBeAg seroconversion in women of child-bearing age with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B. No virological breakthrough and genotypic resistance were observed in the combination therapy group. Additionally, the combination therapy with Adefovir plus Lamivudine was well tolerated. This study suggests that de novo combination therapy of Adefovir plus Lamivudine offers a therapeutic advantage for women of child-bearing age with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B when taken before conception.

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This study reports on an original concept of additive manufacturing for the fabrication of tissue engineered constructs (TEC), offering the possibility of concomitantly manufacturing a customized scaffold and a bioreactor chamber to any size and shape. As a proof of concept towards the development of anatomically relevant TECs, this concept was utilized for the design and fabrication of a highly porous sheep tibia scaffold around which a bioreactor chamber of similar shape was simultaneously built. The morphology of the bioreactor/scaffold device was investigated by micro-computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy confirming the porous architecture of the sheep tibiae as opposed to the non-porous nature of the bioreactor chamber. Additionally, this study demonstrates that both the shape, as well as the inner architecture of the device can significantly impact the perfusion of fluid within the scaffold architecture. Indeed, fluid flow modelling revealed that this was of significant importance for controlling the nutrition flow pattern within the scaffold and the bioreactor chamber, avoiding the formation of stagnant flow regions detrimental for in vitro tissue development. The bioreactor/scaffold device was dynamically seeded with human primary osteoblasts and cultured under bi-directional perfusion for two and six weeks. Primary human osteoblasts were observed homogenously distributed throughout the scaffold, and were viable for the six week culture period. This work demonstrates a novel application for additive manufacturing in the development of scaffolds and bioreactors. Given the intrinsic flexibility of the additive manufacturing technology platform developed, more complex culture systems can be fabricated which would contribute to the advances in customized and patient-specific tissue engineering strategies for a wide range of applications.

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The optimal parameters in the use of nuclease S1 in DNA reassociation kinetics in the presence of formamide have been determined. The conditions are especially suitable for the study of DNA rich in mole percent GC. A 10-fold dilution of the reassociation samples leading to a decrease in both NaCl and formamide concentrations, consequently resulting in a lowering of Tm by only 1.5°C, and the S1 digestion at temperatures identical to the reassociation assay in order to retain the stability of the duplex, are two important aspects of this system. Under these conditions, the kinetics of reassociation followed the theoretically predicted pattern, while the earlier reported methods have shown lower values.

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This paper proposes a multilevel inverter configuration which produces a hexagonal voltage space vector structure in the lower modulation region and a 12-sided polygonal space vector structure in the overmodulation region. A conventional multilevel inverter produces 6n plusmn 1 (n = odd) harmonics in the phase voltage during overmodulation and in the extreme square-wave mode of operation. However, this inverter produces a 12-sided polygonal space vector location, leading to the elimination of 6n plusmn 1 (n = odd) harmonics in the overmodulation region extending to a final 12-step mode of operation with a smooth transition. The benefits of this arrangement are lower losses and reduced torque pulsation in an induction motor drive fed from this converter at higher modulation indexes. The inverter is fabricated by using three conventional cascaded two-level inverters with asymmetric dc-bus voltages. A comparative simulation study of the harmonic distortion in the phase voltage and associated losses in conventional multilevel inverters and that of the proposed inverter is presented in this paper. Experimental validation on a prototype shows that the proposed converter is suitable for high-power applications because of low harmonic distortion and low losses.

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Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

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An analytical method for the measurement of five naturally occurring bromophenols of sensory relevance in seafood (barramundi and prawns) is presented. The method combines simultaneous distillation−extraction followed by alkaline back extraction of a hexane extract and subsequent acetylation of the bromophenols. Analysis of the bromophenol acetates was accomplished by headspace solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography−mass spectrometry using selected ion monitoring. The addition of 13C6 bromophenol stable isotope internal standards for each of the five congeners studied permitted the accurate quantitation of 2-bromophenol, 4-bromophenol, 2,6-dibromophenol, 2,4-dibromophenol, and 2,4,6-tribromophenol down to a limit of quantification of 0.05 ng/g of fish flesh. The method indicated acceptable precision and repeatability and excellent linearity over the typical concentration range of these compounds in seafood (0.5−50 ng/g). The analytical method was applied to determine the concentration of bromophenols in a range of farmed and wild barramundi and prawns and was also used to monitor bromophenol uptake in a pilot feeding trial.

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Estimation of secondary structure in polypeptides is important for studying their structure, folding and dynamics. In NMR spectroscopy, such information is generally obtained after sequence specific resonance assignments are completed. We present here a new methodology for assignment of secondary structure type to spin systems in proteins directly from NMR spectra, without prior knowledge of resonance assignments. The methodology, named Combination of Shifts for Secondary Structure Identification in Proteins (CSSI-PRO), involves detection of specific linear combination of backbone H-1(alpha) and C-13' chemical shifts in a two-dimensional (2D) NMR experiment based on G-matrix Fourier transform (GFT) NMR spectroscopy. Such linear combinations of shifts facilitate editing of residues belonging to alpha-helical/beta-strand regions into distinct spectral regions nearly independent of the amino acid type, thereby allowing the estimation of overall secondary structure content of the protein. Comparison of the predicted secondary structure content with those estimated based on their respective 3D structures and/or the method of Chemical Shift Index for 237 proteins gives a correlation of more than 90% and an overall rmsd of 7.0%, which is comparable to other biophysical techniques used for structural characterization of proteins. Taken together, this methodology has a wide range of applications in NMR spectroscopy such as rapid protein structure determination, monitoring conformational changes in protein-folding/ligand-binding studies and automated resonance assignment.