The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Substrate-inhibited kinetics with catalyst deactivation in an isothermal CSTR. II. Multiple pseudosteady states and reactor failure

Analytical expressions are derived for the time and magnitude of failure of an isothermal CSTR with substrate-inhibited kinetics, caused by slow catalyst deactivation under three types of parallel and series mechanisms. Reactors operating at high space velocity are found to be most susceptible to early failure and poisoning by product is more dangerous than by reactant. The magnitude of the jump across steady states depends solely on the Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic parameters and a detailed analysis of reactor behavior during the jump itself is given.

Activation of beta(2)-adrenergic receptors hastens relaxation and mediates phosphorylation of phospholamban, troponin I, and C-protein in ventricular myocardium from patients with terminal heart failure

Background-Catecholamines hasten cardiac relaxation through beta-adrenergic receptors, presumably by phosphorylation of several proteins, but it is unknown which receptor subtypes are involved in human ventricle. We assessed the role of beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors in phosphorylating proteins implicated in ventricular relaxation. Methods and Results-Right ventricular trabeculae, obtained from freshly explanted hearts of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (n=5) or ischemic cardiomyopathy (n=5), were paced at 60 bpm. After measurement of the contractile and relaxant effects of epinephrine (10 mu mol/L) or zinterol (10 mu mol/L), mediated through beta(2)-adrenergic receptors, and of norepinephrine (10 mu mol/L), mediated through beta(1)-adrenergic receptors, tissues were freeze clamped. We assessed phosphorylation of phospholamban, troponin I, and C-protein, as well as specific phosphorylation of phospholamban at serine 16 and threonine 17, Data did not differ between the 2 disease groups and were therefore pooled. Epinephrine, zinterol, and norepinephrine increased contractile force to approximately the same extent, hastened the onset of relaxation by 15+/-3%, 5+/-2%, and 20+/-3%, respectively, and reduced the time to half-relaxation by 26+/-3%, 21+/-3%, and 37+/-3%. These effects of epinephrine, zinterol, and norepinephrine were associated with phosphorylation (pmol phosphate/mg protein) of phospholamban 14+/-3, 12+/-4, and 12+/-3, troponin I 40+/-7, 33+/-7, and 31+/-6; and C-protein 7.2+/-1.9, 9.3 +/- 1.4, and 7.5 +/- 2.0. Phosphorylation of phospholamban occurred at both Ser16 and Thr17 residues through both beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors. Conclusions-Norepinephrine and epinephrine hasten human ventricular relaxation and promote phosphorylation of implicated proteins through both beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors, thereby potentially improving diastolic function.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Standard Values for Real-Time Transthoracic Three-Dimensional Echocardiographic Dyssynchrony Indexes in a Normal Population

Background: There is a paucity of information describing the real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) and dyssynchrony indexes (DIs) of a normal population. We evaluate the RT3DE DIs in a population with normal electrocardiograms and 2- and 3-dimensional echocardiographic analyses. This information is relevant for cardiac resynchronization therapy. Methods: We evaluated 131 healthy volunteers (73 were male, aged 46 +/- 14 years) who were referred for routine echocardiography; who presented normal cardiac structure on electrocardiography, 2-dimensional echocardiography, and RT3DE; and who had no history of cardiac diseases. We analyzed 3-dimensional left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricle end-diastolic volume, left ventricle end-systolic volume, and left ventricular systolic DI% (6-, 12-, and 16-segment models). RT3DE data were analyzed by quantifying the statistical distribution (mean, median, standard deviation [SD], relative SD, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, D`Agostino-Pearson test, percentiles, and 95% confidence interval). Results: Left ventricular ejection fraction ranged from 50% to 80% (66.1% +/- 7.1%); left ventricle end-diastolic volume ranged from 39.8 to 145 mL (79.1 +/- 24.9 mL); left ventricle end-systolic volume ranged from 12.9 to 66 mL (27 +/- 12.1 mL); 6-segment DI% ranged from 0.20% to 3.80% (1.21% +/- 0.66%), median: 1.06, relative SD: 0.5482, coefficient of skewness: 1.2620 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.9956 (P = .0039); percentile 2.5%: 0.2900, percentile 97.5%: 2.8300; 12-segment DI% ranged from 0.22% to 4.01% (1.29% +/- 0.71%), median: 1.14, relative SD: 0.95, coefficient of skewness: 1.1089 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.6372 (P = .0100), percentile 2.5%: 0.2850, percentile 97.5%: 3.0700; and 16-segment DI% ranged from 0.29% to 4.88% (1.59 +/- 0.99), median: 1.39, relative SD: 0.56, coefficient of skewness: 1.0792 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 0.9248 (P = .07), percentile 2.5%: 0.3750, percentile 97.5%: 3.750. Conclusion: This study allows for the quantification of RT3DE DIs in normal subjects, providing a comparison for patients with heart failure who may be candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2008; 21: 1229-1235)

Long-Term Prospective, Randomized, Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients The REMADHE Trial

Background-The effectiveness of heart failure disease management proarams in patients under cardiologists` care over long-term follow-up is not established. Methods and Results-We investigated the effects of a disease management program with repetitive education and telephone monitoring on primary (combined death or unplanned first hospitalization and quality-of-life changes) and secondary end points (hospitalization, death, and adherence). The REMADHE [Repetitive Education and Monitoring for ADherence for Heart Failure] trial is a long-term randomized, prospective, parallel trial designed to compare intervention with control. One hundred seventeen patients were randomized to usual care, and 233 to additional intervention. The mean follow-up was 2.47 +/- 1.75 years, with 54% adherence to the program. In the intervention group, the primary end point composite of death or unplanned hospitalization was reduced (hazard ratio, 0.64; confidence interval, 0.43 to 0.88; P=0.008), driven by reduction in hospitalization. The quality-of-life questionnaire score improved only in the intervention group (P<0.003). Mortality was similar in both groups. Number of hospitalizations (1.3 +/- 1.7 versus 0.8 +/- 1.3, P<0.0001), total hospital days during the follow-up (19.9 +/- 51 versus 11.1 +/- 24 days, P<0.0001), and the need for emergency visits (4.5 +/- 10.6 versus 1.6 +/- 2.4, P<0.0001) were lower in the intervention group. Beneficial effects were homogeneous for sex, race, diabetes and no diabetes, age, functional class, and etiology. Conclusions-For a longer follow-up period than in previous studies, this heart failure disease management program model of patients under the supervision of a cardiologist is associated with a reduction in unplanned hospitalization, a reduction of total hospital days, and a reduced need for emergency care, as well as improved quality of life, despite modest program adherence over time. (Circ Heart Fail. 2008;1:115-124.)

Qualitative and Quantitative Real Time Myocardial Contrast Echocardiography for Detecting Hibernating Myocardium

Background: Real time myocardial contrast echocardiography (RTMCE) is an emerging imaging modality for assessing myocardial perfusion that allows for noninvasive quantification of regional myocardial blood flow (MBF). Aim: We sought to assess the value of qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and quantitative assessment of myocardial blood flow (MBF) by RTMCE for predicting regional function recovery in patients with ischemic heart disease who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods: Twenty-four patients with coronary disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 45%) underwent RTMCE before and 3 months after CABG. RTMCE was performed using continuous intravenous infusion of commercially available contrast agent with low mechanical index power modulation imaging. Viability was defined by qualitative assessment of myocardial perfusion as homogenous opacification at rest in >= 2 segments of anterior or >= 1 segment of posterior territory. Viability by quantitative assessment of MBF was determined by receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis. Results: Regional function recovery was observed in 74% of territories considered viable by qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and 40% of nonviable (P = 0.03). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of qualitative RTMCE for detecting regional function recovery were 74%, 60%, 77%, and 56%, respectively. Cutoff value of MBF for predicting regional function recovery was 1.76 (AUC = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.62-0.92). MBF obtained by RTMCE had sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 50%, positive predictive value of 75%, and negative predictive value of 78%. Conclusion: Qualitative and quantitative RTMCE provide good accuracy for predicting regional function recovery after CABG. Determination of MBF increases the sensitivity for detecting hibernating myocardium. (Echocardiography 2011;28:342-349).

Effects of Exercise Training on Myocardial Blood Flow Reserve in Patients With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction

Exercise training has been shown to be effective in improving exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with heart failure and left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction. Real-time myocardial contrast echocardiography (RTMCE) is a new technique that allows quantitative analysis of myocardial blood flow (MBF). The aim of this study was to determine the effects of exercise training on MBF in patients with LV dysfunction. We studied 23 patients with LV dysfunction who underwent RTMCE and cardiopulmonary exercise testing at baseline and 4 months after medical treatment (control group, n = 10) or medical treatment plus exercise training (trained group, n = 13). Replenishment velocity (0) and MBF reserves were derived from quantitative RTMCE. The 4-month exercise training consisted of 3 60-minute exercise sessions/week at an intensity corresponding to anaerobic threshold, 10% below the respiratory compensation point. Aerobic exercise training did not change LV diameters, volumes, or ejection fraction. At baseline, no difference was observed in MBF reserve between the control and trained groups (1.89, 1.67 to 1.98, vs 1.81, 1.28 to 2.38, p = 0.38). Four-month exercise training resulted in a significant increase in beta reserve from 1.72 (1.45 to 1.48) to 2.20 (1.69 to 2.77, p <0.001) and an MBF reserve from 1.81 (1.28 to 2.38) to 3.05 (2.07 to 3.93, p <0.001). In the control group, 13 reserve decreased from 1.51 (1.10 to 1.85) to 1.46 (1.14 to 2.33, p = 0.03) and MBF reserve from 1.89 (1.67 to 1.98) to 1.55 (1.11 to 2.27, p <0.001). Peak oxygen consumption increased by 13.8% after 4 months of exercise training and decreased by 1.9% in the control group. In conclusion, exercise training resulted in significant improvement of MBF reserve in patients with heart failure and LV dysfunction. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2010;105:243-248)

Time- and Fluid-Sensitive Resuscitation for Hemodynamic Support of Children in Septic Shock Barriers to the Implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine/Pediatric Advanced Life Support Guidelines in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit in a Developing World

Objectives: To analyze mortality rates of children with severe sepsis and septic shock in relation to time-sensitive fluid resuscitation and treatments received and to define barriers to the implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine/Pediatric Advanced Life Support guidelines in a pediatric intensive care unit in a developing country. Methods: Retrospective chart review and prospective analysis of septic shock treatment in a pediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Ninety patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted between July 2002 and June 2003 were included in this study. Results: Of the 90 patients, 83% had septic shock and 17% had severe sepsis; 80 patients had preexisting severe chronic diseases. Patients with septic shock who received less than a 20-mL/kg dose of resuscitation fluid in the first hour of treatment had a mortality rate of 73%, whereas patients who received more than a 40-mL/kg dose in the first hour of treatment had a mortality rate of 33% (P < 0.05.) Patients treated less than 30 minutes after diagnosis of severe sepsis and septic shock had a significantly lower mortality rate (40%) than patients treated more than 60 Minutes after diagnosis (P < 0.05). Controlling for the risk of mortality, early fluid resuscitation was associated with a 3-fold reduction in the odds of death (odds ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.85). The most important barriers to achieve adequate severe sepsis and septic shock treatment were lack of adequate vascular access, lack of recognition of early shock, shortage of health care providers, and nonuse of goals and treatment protocols. Conclusions: The mortality rate was higher for children older than years, for those who received less than 40 mL/kg in the first hour, and for those whose treatment was not initiated in the first 30 Minutes after the diagnosis of septic shock. The acknowledgment of existing barriers to a timely fluid administration and the establishment of objectives to overcome these barriers may lead to a more successful implementation of the American College of Critical Care Medicine guidelines and reduced mortality rates for children with septic shock in the developing world.

Distinct resistance mutation and polymorphism acquisition in HIV-1 protease of subtypes B and F1 from children and adult patients under virological failure

The goal of this work was to compare the differences between human immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) of B and F1 Subtypes in the acquisition of major and rninot- protease inhibitor (P1)-associated resistance mutations and of other polymorphisms at the protease (PR) gene, through a cross sectional Study. PR sequences from subtypes B and F1 isolates matched according to P1 exposure time from Brazilian patients were included in this study. Sequences were separated in four groups: 24 and 90 from children and 141 and 99 from adults infected with isolates of subtypes F1 and B, respectively. For comparison, 211 subype B and 79 subtype F1 PR sequences from drug-naive individuals Were included. Demographic and clinical data were similar among B- and F1-infected patients. In untreated patients, Mutations L1OV, K20R, and M361 were more frequent in subtype F1, while L63P, A7IT, and V771 were more prevalent in Subtype B. In treated patients, K20M, D30N, G73S, 184V, and L90M, were More prevalent in subtype B, and K20T and N88S Were more prevalent in Subtype F1. A higher proportion of subtype F1 than Of subtype B Strains Containing other polymorphisms was observed. V82L mutation was Present With increased frequency in isolates from children compared to isolates from adults infected with both subtypes. We could observe a faster resistance emergence in children than in adults, during treatment with protease inhibitors. This data provided evidence that, although rates of overall drug resistance do not differ between subtypes B and F1, the former accumulates resistance at higher proportion in specific amino acid positions of protease when compared to the latter. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The epidemiology of acute respiratory failure in hospitalized patients: A Brazilian prospective cohort study

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess risk factors associated with the development of acute respiratory failure (ARF) and death in a general intensive care unit (ICU). Materials and Methods: Adults who were hospitalized at 12 surgical and nonsurgical ICUs were prospectively followed up. Multivariable analyses were realized to determine the risk factors for ARF and point out the prognostic factors for mortality in these patients. Results: A total of 1732 patients were evaluated, with an ARF prevalence of 57%. Of the 889 patients who were admitted without ARF, 141 (16%) developed this syndrome in the ICU. The independent risk factors for developing ARF were 64 years of age or older, longer time between hospital and ICU admission, unscheduled surgical or clinical reason for ICU admission, and severity of illness. Of the 984 patients with ARF, 475 (48%) died during the ICU stay. Independent prognostic factors for death were age older than 64 years, time between hospital and ICU admission of more than 4 days, history of hematologic malignancy or AIDS, the development of ARF in ICU, acute lung injury, and severity of illness. Conclusions: Acute respiratory failure represents a large percentage of all ICU patients, and the high mortality is related to some preventable factors such as the time to ICU admission. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the heritability of inspection time and its covariance with IQ: A twin study

Using the classical twin design, this study investigates the influence of genetic factors on the large phenotypic variance in inspection time (IT), and whether the well established IT-IQ association can be explained by a common genetic factor. Three hundred ninety pairs of twins (184 monozygotic, MZ; 206 dizygotic, DZ) with a mean age of 16 years participated, and 49 pairs returned approximately 3 months, later for retesting. As in many IT studies, the pi figure stimulus was used and IT was estimated from the cumulative normal ogive. IT ranged from 39.4 to 774.1 ms (159 +/- 110.1 ms) with faster ITs (by an average of 26.9 ms) found in the retest session from which a reliability of .69 was estimated. Full-scale IQ (FIQ) was assessed by the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) and ranged from 79 to 145 (111 +/- 13). The phenotypic association between IT and FIQ was confirmed (- .35) and bivariate results showed that a common genetic factor accounted for 36% of the variance in IT and 32% of the variance in FIQ. The maximum likelihood estimate of the genetic correlation was - .63. When performance and verbal IQ (PIQ & VIQ) were analysed with IT, a stronger phenotypic and genetic relationship was found between PIQ and IT than with VIQ. A large part of the IT variance (64%) was accounted for by a unique environmental factor. Further genetic factors were needed to explain the remaining variance in IQ with a small component of unique environmental variance present. The separability of a shared genetic factor influencing IT and IQ from the total genetic variance in IQ suggests that IT affects a specific subcomponent of intelligence rather than a generalised efficiency. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Etiology of ovarian failure in blepharophimosis ptosis epicanthus inversus syndrome: FOXL2 is a conserved, early-acting gene in vertebrate ovarian development

Blepharophimosis ptosis epicanthus inversus syndrome (BPES) is a human disorder caused by mutations in the forkhead transcription factor gene FOXL2 and is characterized by facial dysmorphology combined in some cases with ovarian failure. To better understand the role of FOXL2 in the etiology of ovarian failure in BPES, we examined its expression in embryonic ovaries of mice, chickens, and red-eared slider turtles, representatives of three phylogenetically distant vertebrate groups that have different mechanisms of sex determination. Expression of Foxl2 was detected in early ovaries of all three species around the time of sex determination and was associated with both somatic and germ cell populations in mice. Expression was sexually dimorphic in all cases. Sequence analysis of turtle and chicken FoxL2 orthologues indicated an unusually high degree of structural conservation during evolution. FoxL2 was found to be autosomal in chickens, and therefore unlikely to represent the dominant ovarian-determining gene that has been postulated to exist as a possible explanation for female heterogamety in birds. Our observations suggest that BPES may result from early abnormalities in regulating the development of the fetal ovary, rather than premature degeneration of the postnatal or adult ovary. Further, our results suggest that FOXL2 is a highly conserved early regulator of vertebrate ovarian development.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Seasonal variation in hospitalizations due to heart failure in Niterói city, Southeastern Brazil

The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.