983 resultados para series temporales


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A key capability of data-race detectors is to determine whether one thread executes logically in parallel with another or whether the threads must operate in series. This paper provides two algorithms, one serial and one parallel, to maintain series-parallel (SP) relationships "on the fly" for fork-join multithreaded programs. The serial SP-order algorithm runs in O(1) amortized time per operation. In contrast, the previously best algorithm requires a time per operation that is proportional to Tarjan’s functional inverse of Ackermann’s function. SP-order employs an order-maintenance data structure that allows us to implement a more efficient "English-Hebrew" labeling scheme than was used in earlier race detectors, which immediately yields an improved determinacy-race detector. In particular, any fork-join program running in T₁ time on a single processor can be checked on the fly for determinacy races in O(T₁) time. Corresponding improved bounds can also be obtained for more sophisticated data-race detectors, for example, those that use locks. By combining SP-order with Feng and Leiserson’s serial SP-bags algorithm, we obtain a parallel SP-maintenance algorithm, called SP-hybrid. Suppose that a fork-join program has n threads, T₁ work, and a critical-path length of T[subscript ∞]. When executed on P processors, we prove that SP-hybrid runs in O((T₁/P + PT[subscript ∞]) lg n) expected time. To understand this bound, consider that the original program obtains linear speed-up over a 1-processor execution when P = O(T₁/T[subscript ∞]). In contrast, SP-hybrid obtains linear speed-up when P = O(√T₁/T[subscript ∞]), but the work is increased by a factor of O(lg n).

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Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

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A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed at different points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariate time series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time. Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, a trawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in its infancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Any appropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series must take into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statistical techniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach to analyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform to break the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformed time series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of the additive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also present results from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initial transform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality of the forecasts

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The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country. Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest. I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish Labour Force Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series, the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformation of the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of the three models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the time series 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of the three models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the prediction regions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot. We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power of the three models

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Comprobar la existencia de una regulación específicamente semántica. Contrastar la influencia reguladora derivada del seguimiento de claves perceptivas con la influencia reguladora de las claves semánticas. 129 preescolares. Se trata de un diseño multifactorial mixto con bloqueo y medidas repetidas en tres factores, en el cual: se manejan seis factores de variación (variables independientes). Se efectúan comparaciones tanto intrasujeto como intersujeto. Los sujetos de todos los grupos formados en el bloqueo realizan las dos tareas (GRA y MAN) en las dos condiciones de presencia del modelo visual (CM y SM), cada una de las cuales comprende los cuatro niveles de dificultad. Prueba de Lebedinski y Subbotski. Técnicas estadísticas. Se aprecian ligeras pero constantes diferencias entre las modalidades CM y SM, a favor de la primera. Por lo que hace referencia a las tareas, en todos los niveles de edad se aprecia mayor proporción de realizaciones correctas en la tarea gráfica. Las tareas de reproducción de series, tanto en su versión gráfica como en la manipulativa, son pruebas idóneas porque requieren tal subordinación de la acción a un objetivo dado. La actividad autorreguladora no necesariamente está acompañada por la verbalización reguladora.

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Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

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Lecture notes on Fourier Series

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Preliminartry listing of talks planned for the Autumn semester 2011

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Purpose: To evaluate the evolution of clinical and functional outcomes of symptomatic discoid lateral meniscus treated arthroscopically over time and to investigate the relationship between associated intra-articular findings and outcomes. Methods: Of all patients treated arthroscopically between 1995 and 2010, patients treated for symptomatic discoid meniscus were identified in the hospital charts. Baseline data (demographics, previous trauma of ipsilateral knee, and associated intra-articular findings) and medium term outcome data from clinical follow-up examinations (pain, locking, snapping and instability of the operated knee) were extracted from clinical records. Telephone interviews were conducted at long term in 28 patients (31 knees). Interviews comprised clinical outcomes as well as functional outcomes as assessed by the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (IKDC). Results: All patients underwent arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. The mean follow-up time for data extracted from clinical records was 11 months (SD ± 12). A significant improvement was found for pain in 77% (p<0.001), locking in 13%, (p=0.045) and snapping in 39 % (p<0.005). The mean follow-up time of the telephone interview was 60 months (SD ± 43). Improvement from baseline was generally less after five years than after one year and functional outcomes of the IKDC indicated an abnormal function after surgery (IKDC mean= 84.5, SD ± 20). In some patients, 5 year-outcomes were even worse than their preoperative condition. Nonetheless, 74% of patients perceived their knee function as improved. Furthermore, better results were seen in patients without any associated intra-articular findings. Conclusions: Arthroscopical partial meniscectomy is an effective intervention to relieve symptoms in patients with discoid meniscus in the medium-term; however, results trend to deteriorate over time. A trend towards better outcome for patients with no associated intra-articular findings was observed.

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En la Constitución Política se consagra el trabajo como un derecho fundamental, objeto de protección cuando sea vulnerado o amenazado; el Estado tiene el deber de protegerlo, creando, estimulando e incentivando las condiciones socioeconómicas propicias que promuevan una oferta de oportunidades laborales para todas aquellas personas en capacidad de trabajar, expidiendo la normatividad que asegure unas relaciones laborales “dignas y justas”, con arreglo a los principios fundamentales básicos y mínimos ideados por el constituyente. El orden normativo primario es el protector del derecho al trabajo, bien sea que se preste independientemente o bajo condiciones de subordinación, en las modalidades de contrato de trabajo o bajo una relación laboral, legal, estatutaria, o reglamentaria.

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Objective: The objective of this study is to conduct a description of the features of optic neuropathy associated with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in relation to their possible incidence within our population, regarding that there is no data in our population in terms of frequency of this pathology (1,2). Methodology: Descriptive cross-sectional study of a clinical series of patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus, but AIDS, and the thickness of optic nerve´s layer of fibers studied with OCT technology (optical coherence tomography), patients were cited once captured. OCT was performed by the same observer, by taking 3 shots and picking the one with better reliability. Patients were given personally to the Ophthalmologic Foundation of Santander to conduct the review called OCT (optical coherence tomography). Results: In terms of viral load variable, we found a clear correlation in which validates the hypothesis that lower viral load means a thicker layer of fibers finding statistically significant differences for the 6 hours in right eye and 12 and 6 hours in left eye. Comparison between the known nomogram of fiber layer thickness for the population of Bucaramanga, Santander and thickness found in our sample, we note a clear decrease in the upper and lower quadrants, specifically in 7 hours and 11 hours, being more important in 7 hours, showing statistically significant differences. Conclusions: The pattern  of thinning of the nerve fiber layer in HIV positive patients without AIDS, and antiretroviral treatment type HAART, showed a statistically significant thinning targeted at 7 hours and 11 hours, being higher in first. Viral load figures have a direct relation with loss fiber layer, showing a statistically significant difference for the 6 and 12 hours.

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En este libro, se desarrollan los conceptos fundamentales del cálculo integral y de las series de Fourier. Cada uno de estos apartados constituyen dos campos de las matemáticas aplicadas en que las conexiones con los problemas de física y de la ingeniería son más evidentes. Cada capítulo consta de un desarrollo teórico el cual va acompañado con ejercicios de aplicación de las teorías expuestas, asimismo al finalixar cada capítulo se recojen una serie de ejercicios resueltos así como de ejercicios propuestos. Se concluye el libro con un apéndice, en el cual se hace uso del paquete de cálculo simbólico 'Mathemática', para la resolución de algunos ejercicios, así como dar una visión gráfica de algunos de los ejercicios previstos.

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Este libro forma parte de una colección de cinco tomos pensados como libros de texto de las asignaturas de Cálculo de los diferentes estudios de la Escuela Politécnica Superior de Ingeniería de la Universidad de Cantabria. En este tomo se desarrolla teoría y problemas; la presentación de los resultados teóricos es fluída y fácil de entender y asimilar. Además, se evitan las demostraciones intrincadas, que no afianzan las técnicas y conceptos manejados por ellas. A medida que se presenta la teoría se incluye, con objeto de ilustrarla, un buen número de ejemplos sencillos. Cada capítulo finaliza con ejercicios resueltos detalladamente y una relación de ejercicios propuestos, algunos de ellos incluídos en examen. Todo ello con el objeto de proporcionar al alumnado un material de apoyo para su tarea cotidiana.

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Resumen de la autora en catalán

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En este artículo se argumenta que la persistencia no es una característica invariable de una serie de tiempo, sino que depende del contexto en el cual la serie se utiliza: dado que los parámetros de cualquier modelo dinámico se definen en relación a un conjunto particular de información, cualquier cambio en el conjunto de variables condicionales puede afectar las estimaciones resultantes. Definimos persistencia de una variable como la tasa a la cual su función de autocorrelación converge a cero, y demostramos que la inferencia sobre la persistencia de una variable no varía en función de la adición de otras variables condicionales siempre y cuando éstas variables no sean Granger-causales sobre la variable de interés. Más aún, establecemos que la persistencia medida es una función del modelo elegido y que esto es más fundamental para sistemas inestables. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que, a menos que se impongan más restricciones derivadas de la teoría económica, temas como la efectividad de las políticas de estabilización no pueden ser resueltos empíricamente, y que por ende, el debate entre los teóricos keynesianos y RBC no puede cerrarse.