853 resultados para optimism bias


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Executuve Summary Background and Aims Child abuse and neglect is a tragedy within our community, with over 10,000 substantiated reports of abuse and neglect in Queensland in the past year. The considerable consequences of child abuse and neglect are far-reaching, substantial and can be fatal. The reporting of suspicions of child abuse or neglect is often the first step in preventing further abuse or neglect. In the State of Queensland, medical practitioners are mandated by law to report their suspicions of child abuse and neglect. However, despite this mandate many still do not report their suspicions. A 1998 study indicated that 43% of medical practitioners had, at some time, made a conscious decision to not report suspected abuse or neglect (Van Haeringen, Dadds & Armstrong, 1998). The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of beliefs about reporting suspected child abuse and neglect and the barriers to reporting suspected abuse and neglect by medical practitioners and parents and students. The findings have the potential to inform the training and education of members of the community who have a shared responsibility to protect the wellbeing of its most vulnerable members. Method In one of the largest studies of reporting behaviour in relation to suspected child abuse and neglect in Australia, we examined and compared medical practitioners’ responses with members of the community, namely parents and students. We surveyed 91 medical practitioners and 214 members of the community (102 parents and 112 students) regarding their beliefs and reporting behaviour related to suspected child abuse and neglect. We also examined reasons for not reporting suspected abuse or neglect, as well as awareness of responsibilities and the appropriate reporting procedures. To obtain such information, participants anonymously completed a comprehensive questionnaire using items from previous studies of reporting attitudes and behaviour. Executive Summary Abused Child Trust Report August 2003 5 Findings Key findings include: • The majority of medical practitioners (97%) were aware of their duty to report suspected abuse and neglect and believed they had a professional and ethical duty to do so. • A majority of parents (82%) and students (68%) also believed that they had a professional and ethical duty to report suspected abuse and neglect. • In accord with their statutory duty to report suspected abuse and neglect, 69% of medical practitioners had made a report at some point. • Sixteen percent of parents and 9% of students surveyed indicated that they had reported their suspicions of neglect and abuse. • The most endorsed belief associated with not reporting suspected child abuse and neglect was that, ‘unpleasant events would follow reporting’. • Over a quarter of medical practitioners (26%) admitted to making a decision not to report their suspicions of child abuse or neglect on at least one occasion. • Compared with previous research, there has been a decline in the number of medical practitioners who decided not to report suspected abuse or neglect from 43% (Van Haeringen et al., 1998) to 26% in the current study. • Fourteen percent of parents and 15% of students surveyed had also chosen not to report a case of suspected abuse or neglect. • Attitudes that most strongly influenced the decision to report or not report suspected abuse or neglect differed between groups (medical practitioners, parents, or students). A belief that, ‘the abuse was a single incident’ was the best predictor of non-reporting by medical practitioners, while having ‘no time to follow-up the report’ or failing to be ‘convinced of evidence of abuse’ best predicted failure to report abuse by students. A range of beliefs predicted non-reporting by parents, including the beliefs that reporting suspected abuse was ‘not their responsibility’ and ‘knowing the child had retracted their statement’. Conclusions Of major concern is that approximately 25% of medical practitioners with a mandated responsibility to report, as well as some members of the general public, revealed that they have suspected child neglect or abuse but have made the decision not to report their suspicions. Parents and students perceived the general community as having responsibility for reporting suspicions of abuse or neglect. Despite this perception, they felt that lodging a report may be overly demanding in terms of time and they had the confidence in their ability to identify child abuse and neglect. An explanation for medical practitioners deciding not to report may be based upon their optimistic belief that suspected abuse or neglect was a single incident. Our findings may best be understood from the ‘inflation of optimism’ hypothesis put forward by the Nobel Laureate, Daniel Kahneman. He suggests that in spite of rational evidence, human beings tend to make judgements based on an optimistic view rather than engaging in a rational decision-making process. In this case, despite past behaviour of abuse or neglect being the best predictor of future behaviour, medical practitioners have taken an optimistic view, choosing to believe that their suspicion of child abuse or neglect represents a single incident. The clear implication of findings in the current research is the need for the members of the general community and medical practitioners to be better appraised of the consequences of their decision-making in relation to suspicionsof child abuse and neglect. Finally findings from parents and students relating to their reporting behaviour suggest that members of the larger community represent an untapped resourcewho might, with appropriate awareness, play a more significant role in theidentification and reporting of suspected child abuse and neglect.

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A new set of primitive extraterrestrial materials collected in the Earth's stratosphere include Chondritic Porous Aggregates (CPA's) [1]. CPAs have a complex and variable mineralogy [1-3] that include 'organic compounds' [4,5] and poorly graphitised carbon (PGC)[6]. This study presents a continuation of our detailed Analytical Electron Microscope study on carbon-rich CPA W7029*A from the JSC Cosmic Dust Collection. This CPA is an uncontaminated sample that survived atmospheric entry without appreciable alteration [7] and which contains ~44% carbonaceous material. The carbonaceous composition of selected particles was confirmed by Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy and Selected Area Electron Diffraction (SAED). Possible carbonaceous contaminants introduced by specimen preparation techniques are easily recognised from indigenous CPA carbon particles [8] and do not bias our interpretations.

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Background: Evaluation of scapular posture is a fundamental component in the clinical evaluation of the upper quadrant. This study examined the intrarater reliability of scapular posture ratings. Methods: A test-retest reliability investigation was undertaken with one week between assessment sessions. At each session physical therapists conducted visual assessments of scapula posture (relative to the thorax) in five different scapula postural planes (plane of scapula, sagittal plane, transverse plane, horizontal plane, and vertical plane). These five plane ratings were performed for four different scapular posture perturbating conditions (rest, isometric shoulder; flexion, abduction, and external rotation). Results. A total of 100 complete scapular posture ratings (50 left, 50 right) were undertaken at each assessment. The observed agreement between the test and retest postural plane ratings ranged from 59% to 87%; 16 of the 20 plane-condition combinations exceeded 75% observed agreement. Kappa (and prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa) values were inconsistent across the postural planes and perturbating conditions. Conclusions: This investigation generally revealed fair to moderate intrarater reliability in the rating of scapular posture by visual inspection. However, enough disagreement between assessments was present to warrant caution when interpreting perceived changes in scapula position between longitudinal assessments using visual inspection alone.

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Background: Despite important implications for the budgets, statistical power and generalisability of research findings, detailed reports of recruitment and retention in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are rare. The NOURISH RCT evaluated a community-based intervention for first-time mothers that promoted protective infant feeding practices as a primary prevention strategy for childhood obesity. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed description and evaluation of the recruitment and retention strategies used. Methods: A two stage recruitment process designed to provide a consecutive sampling framework was used. First time mothers delivering healthy term infants were initially approached in postnatal wards of the major maternity services in two Australian cities for consent to later contact (Stage 1). When infants were about four months old mothers were re-contacted by mail for enrolment (Stage 2), baseline measurements (Time 1) and subsequent random allocation to the intervention or control condition. Outcomes were assessed at infant ages 14 months (Time 2) and 24 months (Time 3). Results: At Stage 1, 86% of eligible mothers were approached and of these women, 76% consented to later contact. At Stage 2, 3% had become ineligible and 76% could be recontacted. Of the latter, 44% consented to full enrolment and were allocated. This represented 21% of mothers screened as eligible at Stage 1. Retention at Time 3 was 78%. Mothers who did not consent or discontinued the study were younger and less likely to have a university education. Conclusions: The consent and retention rates of our sample of first time mothers are comparable with or better than other similar studies. The recruitment strategy used allowed for detailed information from non-consenters to be collected; thus selection bias could be estimated. Recommendations for future studies include being able to contact participants via mobile phone (particular text messaging), offering home visits to reduce participant burden and considering the use of financial incentives to support participant retention.

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The three main contributors to the war on Iraq in March 2003 (the United States, United Kingdom and Australia) are also the three most significant countries in which Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation operates. This article examines the degree of editorial conformity (or otherwise) that existed across the news media of News Corporation in six months leading to the invasion. It compares the framing of the arguments for war and finds significant similarities across the three countries, especially in the output of columnists and commentators employed by News Corporation. While generally pro-war, however, News Corporation outlets also displayed local variations in the caution or stridency of their editorial pitch as well as the degree of toleration for debate. The extent and significance of these variations are used in the article to argue for the development of a more complex political economy model in the study of private news media bias.

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Many commentators have treated the internet as a site of democratic freedom and as a new kind of public sphere. While there are good reasons for optimism, like any social space digital space also has its dark side. Citizens and governments alike have expressed anxiety about cybercrime and cyber-security. In August 2011, the Australian government introduced legislation to give effect to Australia becoming a signatory to the European Convention on Cybercrime (2001). At the time of writing, that legislation is still before the Parliament. In this article, attention is given to how the legal and policy-making process enabling Australia to be compliant with the European Convention on Cybercrime came about. Among the motivations that informed both the development of the Convention in Europe and then the Australian exercise of legislating for compliance with it was a range of legitimate concerns about the impact that cybercrime can have on individuals and communities. This article makes the case that equal attention also needs to be given to ensuring that legislators and policy makers differentiate between legitimate security imperatives and any over-reach evident in the implementation of this legislation that affects rule of law principles, our capacity to engage in democratic practices, and our civic and human rights.

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Introduction QC and EQA are integral to good pathology laboratory practice. Medical Laboratory Science students undertake a project exploring internal QC and EQA procedures used in chemical pathology laboratories. Each student represents an individual lab and the class group represents the peer group of labs performing the same assay using the same method. Methods Using a manual BCG assay for serum albumin, normal and abnormal controls are run with a patient sample over 7 weeks. The QC results are assessed each week using calculated z-scores and both 2S & 3S control rules to determine whether a run is ‘in control’. At the end of the 7 weeks a completed LJ chart is assessed using the Westgard Multirules. Students investigate causes of error and the implications for both lab practice and patient care if runs are not ‘in control’. Twice in the 7 weeks two EQA samples (with target values unknown) are assayed alongside the weekly QC and patient samples. Results from each student are collated and form the basis of an EQA program. ALP are provided and students complete a Youden Plot, which is used to analyse the performance of each ‘lab’ and the method to identify bias. Students explore the concept of possible clinical implications of a biased method and address the actions that should be taken if a lab is not in consensus with the peer group. Conclusion This project is a model of ‘real world’ practice in which student demonstrate an understanding of the importance of QC procedures in a pathology laboratory, apply and interpret statistics and QC rules and charts, apply critical thinking and analytical skills to quality performance data to make recommendations for further practice and improve their technical competence and confidence.

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The current study explored the effect of depression, optimism, and anxiety on job-related affective well-being in 70 graduate nurses. It was predicted that depression and anxiety would have a significant negative effect on job-related affective well-being, whereas optimism would have a significant positive effect on job-related affective well-being. Questionnaires were completed online or in hard-copy forms. Results revealed that depression, optimism, and anxiety were all significantly correlated to job-related affective well-being in the expected direction however, depression was found to be the only variable that made a significant unique contribution to the prediction of job-related affective well-being. Possible explanations for these findings are explored.

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Objectives The relationship between performance variability and accuracy in cricket fast bowlers of different skill levels under three different task conditions was investigated. Bowlers of different skill levels were examined to observe if they could adapt movement patterns to maintain performance accuracy on a bowling skills test. Design 8 national, 12 emerging and 12 junior pace bowlers completed an adapted version of the Cricket Australia bowling skills test, in which they performed 30 trials involving short (n = 10), good (n = 10), and full (n = 10) length deliveries. Methods Bowling accuracy was recorded by digitising ball position relative to the centre of a target. Performance measures were mean radial error (accuracy), variable error (consistency), centroid error (bias), bowling score and ball speed. Radial error changes across the duration of the skills test were used to record accuracy adjustment in subsequent deliveries. Results Elite fast bowlers performed better in speed, accuracy, and test scores than developing athletes. Bowlers who were less variable were also more accurate across all delivery lengths. National and emerging bowlers were able to adapt subsequent performance trials within the same bowling session for short length deliveries. Conclusions Accuracy and adaptive variability were key components of elite performance in fast bowling which improved with skill level. In this study, only national elite bowlers showed requisite levels of adaptive variability to bowl a range of lengths to different pitch locations.

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Greater than 750 individual particles have now been selected from collection flags housed in the JSC Cosmic Dust Curatorial Facility and most have been documented in the Cosmic Dust Catalogs [1]. As increasing numbers of particles are placed in Cosmic Dust Collections, and a greater diversity of particles are introduced to the stratosphere through natural and man-made processes (e.g. decaying orbits of space debris [2]), there is an even greater need for a classification scheme to encompass all stratospheric particles rather than only extraterrestrial particles. The fundamental requirements for a suitable classification scheme have been outlined in earlier communications [3,4]. A quantitative survey of particles on collection flag W7017 indicates that there is some bias in the number of samples selected within a given category for the Cosmic Dust Catalog [5]. However, the sample diversity within this selection is still appropriate for the development of a reliable classification scheme. In this paper, we extend the earlier works on stratospheric particle classification to include particles collected during the period May 1981 to November 1983.

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Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.

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The aim of this systematic review was to examine the effect of Contrast Water Therapy (CWT) on recovery following exercise induced muscle damage. Controlled trials were identified from computerized literature searching and citation tracking performed up to February 2013. Eighteen trials met the inclusion criteria; all had a high risk of bias. Pooled data from 13 studies showed that CWT resulted in significantly greater improvements in muscle soreness at the five follow-up time points(<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Pooled data also showed that CWT significantly reduced muscle strength loss at each follow-up time (<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Despite comparing CWT to a large number of other recovery interventions, including cold water immersion, warm water immersion, compression, active recovery and stretching, there was little evidence for a superior treatment intervention. The current evidence base shows that CWT is superior to using passive recovery or rest after exercise; the magnitudes of these effects may be most relevant to an elite sporting population. There seems to be little difference in recovery outcome between CWT and other popular recovery interventions.

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An investigation of the electrical and hydrogen sensing properties of a novel Schottky diode based on a nanostructured lanthanum oxide-molybdenum oxide compound is presented herein. Molybdenum oxide (MoO3) nanoplatelets were grown on SiC substrates via thermal evaporation which was then subsequently coated with lanthanum oxide (La2O3) by RF sputtering. The current-voltage characteristics and hydrogen sensing performance (change in barrier height and sensitivity as well as the dynamic response) were examined from 25 to 300°C. At 180°C, a voltage shift of 2.23V was measured from the sensor while exposed to 1% hydrogen gas under a 100 μA constant reverse bias current. The results indicate that the presence of a La2O3 thin layer substantially improves the hydrogen sensitivity of the MoO3 nanoplatelets.

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In this work, we present an investigation on Pt/graphene/GaN devices for hydrogen gas sensing applications. The graphene layer was deposited on GaN substrate using a chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique and was characterised via Raman and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The current-voltage (I-V) and dynamic response of the developed devices were investigated in forward and reverse bias operation at an optimum temperature of 160°C. Voltage shifts of 661.1 and 484.9 mV were recorded towards 1% hydrogen at forward and reverse constant bias current of 1 mA, respectively.

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Titanium oxide nanotubes Schottky diodes were fabricated for hydrogen gas sensing applications. The TiO2 nanotubes were synthesized via anodization of RF sputtered titanium films on SiC substrates. Two anodization potentials of 5 V and 20 V were used. Scanning electron microscopy of the synthesized films revealed nanotubes with avarage diameters of 20 nm and 75 nm. X-ray diffraction analysis revealed that the composition of the oxide varied with the anodization potential. TiO2 (anatase) being formed preferentially at 5 V and TiO (no anatase) at 20 V. Current-voltage characteristics of the diodes were studied towards hydrogen at temperatures from 25°C to 250°C. At constant current bias of −500 μA and 250°C, the lateral voltage shifts of 800 mV and 520 mV were recorded towards 1% hydrogen for the 5 V and 20 V anodized nanotubes, respectively.