Nets: Network estimation for time series

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series.We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where verticesdenote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partialcorrelations. We then introduce a two step LASSO procedure, called NETS, toestimate high dimensional sparse Long Run Partial Correlation networks. This approachis based on a VAR approximation of the process and allows to decomposethe long run linkages into the contribution of the dynamic and contemporaneousdependence relations of the system. The large sample properties of the estimatorare analysed and we establish conditions for consistent selection and estimation ofthe non zero long run partial correlations. The methodology is illustrated with anapplication to a panel of U.S. bluechips.

Frequency and determinants of urgent requests to home care agencies for community-dwelling elderly.

We analyzed a one-year case series and performed a longitudinal (4 month) cohort analysis of urgent requests made to home care agencies by and for their > or = 65 years old clients in order to estimate the frequency of unscheduled services delivered by home care agencies and to identify risk factors. All 40 home care agencies located in a Swiss region were included in the study and we registered 3,816 urgent requests (75/1,000 > or = 65 years residents per year). Among home care users, the presence of a urinary catheter, incontinence and the need for assistance in bathing were predictors of unscheduled services. Resources should be planned in order to help home care teams to handle unexpected, disruptive clusters of urgent requests that may compromise their scheduled activities.

Reliable tidal volume estimates at the airway opening with an infant monitor during high-frequency oscillatory ventilation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the suitability of a hot-wire anemometer infant monitoring system (Florian, Acutronic Medical Systems AG, Hirzel, Switzerland) for measuring flow and tidal volume (Vt) proximal to the endotracheal tube during high-frequency oscillatory ventilation. DESIGN: In vitro model study. SETTING: Respiratory research laboratory. SUBJECT: In vitro lung model simulating moderate to severe respiratory distress. INTERVENTION: The lung model was ventilated with a SensorMedics 3100A ventilator. Vt was recorded from the monitor display (Vt-disp) and compared with the gold standard (Vt-adiab), which was calculated using the adiabatic gas equation from pressure changes inside the model. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A range of Vt (1-10 mL), frequencies (5-15 Hz), pressure amplitudes (10-90 cm H2O), inspiratory times (30% to 50%), and Fio2 (0.21-1.0) was used. Accuracy was determined by using modified Bland-Altman plots (95% limits of agreement). An exponential decrease in Vt was observed with increasing oscillatory frequency. Mean DeltaVt-disp was 0.6 mL (limits of agreement, -1.0 to 2.1) with a linear frequency dependence. Mean DeltaVt-disp was -0.2 mL (limits of agreement, -0.5 to 0.1) with increasing pressure amplitude and -0.2 mL (limits of agreement, -0.3 to -0.1) with increasing inspiratory time. Humidity and heating did not affect error, whereas increasing Fio2 from 0.21 to 1.0 increased mean error by 6.3% (+/-2.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The Florian infant hot-wire flowmeter and monitoring system provides reliable measurements of Vt at the airway opening during high-frequency oscillatory ventilation when employed at frequencies of 8-13 Hz. The bedside application could improve monitoring of patients receiving high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, favor a better understanding of the physiologic consequences of different high-frequency oscillatory ventilation strategies, and therefore optimize treatment.

Adaptive frequency tracking of the baseline ECG identifies the site of atrial fibrillation termination by catheter ablation

Multiple organization indices have been used to predict the outcome of stepwise catheter ablation in long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), however with limited success. Our study aims at developinginnovative organization indices from baseline ECG (i.e. during the procedure, before ablation) in orderto identify the site of AF termination by catheter ablation. Seventeen consecutive male patients (age60 ± 5 years, AF duration 7 ± 5 years) underwent a stepwise catheter ablation. Chest lead V6 was placedin the back (V6b). QRST cancelation was performed from chest leads V1 to V6b. Using an innovativeadaptive harmonic frequency tracking, two measures of AF organization were computed to quantify theharmonics components of ECG activity: (1) the adaptive phase difference variance (APD) between theAF harmonic components as a measure of AF regularity, and (2) and adaptive organization index (AOI)evaluating the cyclicity of the AF oscillations. Both adaptive indices were compared to indices computedusing a time-invariant approach: (1) ECG AF cycle length (AFCL), (2) the spectrum based organizationindex (OI), and (3) the time-invariant phase difference TIPD. Long-standing persistent AF was terminatedinto sinus rhythm or atrial tachycardia in 13/17 patients during stepwise ablation, 11 during left atriumablation (left terminated patients - LT), 2 during the right atrium ablation (right terminated patients -RT), and 4 were non terminated (NT) and required electrical cardioversion. Our findings showed that LTpatients were best separated from RT/NT before ablation by the duration of sustained AF and by AOI onchest lead V1 and APD from the dorsal lead V6b as compared to ECG AFCL, OI and TIPD, respectively. Ourresults suggest that adaptive measures of AF organization computed before ablation perform better thantime-invariant based indices for identifying patients whose AF will terminate during ablation within theleft atrium. These findings are indicative of a higher baseline organization in these patients that could beused to select candidates for the termination of AF by stepwise catheter ablation.© 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Editorial: Language, frequency and bibliometric indexes

This editorial examines the actions undertaken in number 5 and announces two important changes for the numbers 6 and 7, namely frequency and languages. Furthermore, the use of some bibliometric indicators, such as impact factor and refusal rate, is critically analyzed.

Trinocular System for 3D motion and Dense Stucture Estimation

The relief of the seafloor is an important source of data for many scientists. In this paper we present an optical system to deal with underwater 3D reconstruction. This system is formed by three cameras that take images synchronously in a constant frame rate scheme. We use the images taken by these cameras to compute dense 3D reconstructions. We use Bundle Adjustment to estimate the motion ofthe trinocular rig. Given the path followed by the system, we get a dense map of the observed scene by registering the different dense local reconstructions in a unique and bigger one

Exploring the high frequency emission of radio loud X-ray binaries

We report millimetre-wave continuum observations of the X-ray binaries Cygnus X-3, SS 433, LSI+61 303, Cygnus X-1 and GRS 1915+105. The observations were carried out with the IRAM 30 m-antenna at 250 GHz (1.25 mm) from 1998 March 14 to March 20. These millimetre measurements are complemented with centimetre observations from the Ryle Telescope, at 15 GHz (2.0 cm) and from the Green Bank Interferometer at 2.25 and 8.3 GHz (13 and 3.6 cm). Both Cygnus X-3 and SS 433 underwent moderate flaring events during our observations, whose main spectral evolution properties are described and interpreted. A significant spectral steepening was observed in both sources during the flare decay, that is likely to be caused by adiabatic expansion, inverse Compton and synchrotron losses. Finally, we also report 250 GHz upper limits for three additional undetected X-ray binary stars: LSI+65 010, LSI+61 235 and X Per.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Heel and toe clearance estimation for gait analysis using wireless inertial sensors.

Tripping is considered a major cause of fall in older people. Therefore, foot clearance (i.e., height of the foot above ground during swing phase) could be a key factor to better understand the complex relationship between gait and falls. This paper presents a new method to estimate clearance using a foot-worn and wireless inertial sensor system. The method relies on the computation of foot orientation and trajectory from sensors signal data fusion, combined with the temporal detection of toe-off and heel-strike events. Based on a kinematic model that automatically estimates sensor position relative to the foot, heel and toe trajectories are estimated. 2-D and 3-D models are presented with different solving approaches, and validated against an optical motion capture system on 12 healthy adults performing short walking trials at self-selected, slow, and fast speed. Parameters corresponding to local minimum and maximum of heel and toe clearance were extracted and showed accuracy ± precision of 4.1 ± 2.3 cm for maximal heel clearance and 1.3 ± 0.9 cm for minimal toe clearance compared to the reference. The system is lightweight, wireless, easy to wear and to use, and provide a new and useful tool for routine clinical assessment of gait outside a dedicated laboratory.

Gaussian process framework for pervasive estimation of swimming velocity with body-worn IMU

Presented is an accurate swimming velocity estimation method using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) by employing a simple biomechanical constraint of motion along with Gaussian process regression to deal with sensor inherent errors. Experimental validation shows a velocity RMS error of 9.0 cm/s and high linear correlation when compared with a commercial tethered reference system. The results confirm the practicality of the presented method to estimate swimming velocity using a single low-cost, body-worn IMU.

Genetic differentiation in Silene dioica metapopulations: estimation of spatiotemporal effects in a successional plant species

Silene dioica is a diploid, dioecious, perennial, insect-pollinated herb and part of the deciduous phase of primary succession in Skeppsvik Archipelago, Gulf of Bothnia, Sweden. These islands are composed of material deposited and left underwater by melting ice at the end of the last ice age. A rapid and relatively constant rate of land uplift of 0.9 cm per year continually creates new islands available for colonization by plants. Because the higher deposits appear first, islands differ in age. Because it is possible to estimate the ages of islands and populations of plant species belonging to early stages of succession, the genetic dynamics occurring within an age-structured metapopulation can be investigated in this archipelago. Fifty-two island populations of S. dioica of known ages, sizes, and distances from each other were studied through electrophoretic data. A number of factors increase the degree of genetic differentiation among these island populations relative to an island model at equilibrium. Newly founded populations were more differentiated than those of intermediate age, which suggests that colonization dynamics increase genetic variance among populations. The very old populations, which decrease in size as they approach extinction, were more differentiated than intermediate-aged populations. Isolation by distance occurs in this system. Colonizers are likely to come from more than one source, and the migrant pool model best explains colonization events in the archipelago. Degree of environmental exposure also affects population differentiation.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Comparison of estimation methods of soil strength in five soils

In agriculture, the soil strength is used to describe the susceptibility to deformation by pressure caused by agricultural machine. The purpose of this study was to compare different methods for estimating the inherent soil strength and to identify their suitability for the evaluation of load support capacity, compaction susceptibility and root growth. The physical, chemical, mineralogical and intrinsic strength properties of seven soil samples, collected from five sampling pits at different locations in Brazil, were measured. Four clay (CS) and three sandy clay loam (SCL) soils were used. The clay soils were collected on a farm in Santo Ângelo, RS (28 º 16 ' 16 '' S; 54 º 13 ' 11 '' W 290 m); A and B horizons at the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 47 '' S; 44 º 58 ' 6'' W; 918 m) and on the farm Sygenta, in Uberlandia, MG (18 º 58 ' 37 '' S; 48 º 12 ' 05 '' W 866 m). The sandy clay loam soils were collected in Aracruz, ES (19 º 47 ' 10 '' S; 40 º 16 ' 29 '' W 81 m), and on the farm Xavier, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 24 '' S; 45 º 05 ' 00 '' W; 844 m). Soil strength was estimated based on measurements of: (a) a pneumatic consolidometer, (b) manual pocket (non-rotating) penetrometer; and (c) automatic (rotating) penetrometer. The results of soil strength properties were similar by the three methods. The soil structure had a significant influence on soil strength. Results of measurements with both the manual pocket and the electric penetrometer were similar, emphasizing the influence of soil texture. The data showed that, to enhance the reliability of predictions of preconsolidation pressure by penetrometers, it is better to separate the soils into the different classes, rather than analyze them jointly. It can be concluded that the consolidometer method, although expensive, is the best when evaluations of load support capacity and compaction susceptibility of soil samples are desired.