785 resultados para inferences
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper is to compare prices for a popular quick-service restaurant chain (i.e. McDonalds’) across countries throughout the world using the “Big Mac Index” published by “The Economist.” The index was originally developed to measure the valuation of international currencies against the U.S. dollar. The analysis in this study examines the relationship between the price of a Big Mac and other variables such as the cost of beef, price elasticity, and income. Finally, these relationships are reviewed to draw inferences concerning the use of demand, costs, and competition in setting prices.
Resumo:
Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.
Resumo:
Lognormal distribution has abundant applications in various fields. In literature, most inferences on the two parameters of the lognormal distribution are based on Type-I censored sample data. However, exact measurements are not always attainable especially when the observation is below or above the detection limits, and only the numbers of measurements falling into predetermined intervals can be recorded instead. This is the so-called grouped data. In this paper, we will show the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators of the two parameters of the underlying lognormal distribution with Type-I censored data and grouped data. The proof was first established under the case of normal distribution and extended to the lognormal distribution through invariance property. The results are applied to estimate the median and mean of the lognormal population.
Resumo:
The relative abundance of diatom species in different habitats can be used as a tool to infer prior environmental conditions and evaluate management decisions that influence habitat quality. Diatom distribution patterns were examined to characterize relationships between assemblage composition and environmental gradients in a subtropical estuarine watershed. We identified environmental correlates of diatom distribution patterns across the Charlotte Harbor, Florida, watershed; evaluated differences among three major river drainages; and determined how accurately local environmental conditions can be predicted using inference models based on diatom assemblages. Sampling locations ranged from freshwater to marine (0.1–37.2 ppt salinity) and spanned broad nutrient concentration gradients. Salinity was the predominant driver of difference among diatom assemblages across the watershed, but other environmental variables had stronger correlations with assemblages within the subregions of the three rivers and harbor. Eighteen indicator taxa were significantly affiliated with subregions. Relationships between diatom taxon distributions and salinity, distance from the harbor, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) were evaluated to determine the utility of diatom assemblages to predict environmental values using a weighted averaging-regression approach. Diatom-based inferences of these variables were strong (salinity R 2 = 0.96; distance R 2 = 0.93; TN R 2 = 0.83; TP R 2 = 0.83). Diatom assemblages provide reliable estimates of environmental parameters on different spatial scales across the watershed. Because many coastal diatom taxa are ubiquitous, the diatom training sets provided here should enable diatom-based environmental reconstructions in subtropical estuaries that are being rapidly altered by land and water use changes and sea level rise.
Resumo:
English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world's largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users' needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). ^ This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. ^ I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. ^ As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers' resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.^
Resumo:
Ongoing debates within the professional and academic communities have raised a number of questions specific to the international audit market. This dissertation consists of three related essays that address such issues. First, I examine whether the propensity to switch between auditors of different sizes (i.e., Big 4 versus non-Big 4) changes as adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) becomes a more common phenomenon, arguing that smaller auditors have an opportunity to invest in necessary skills and training needed to enter this market. Findings suggest that clients are relatively less (more) likely to switch to (away from) a Big 4 auditor if the client's adoption of IFRS occurs in more recent years. ^ In the second essay, I draw on these inferences and test whether the change in audit fees in the year of IFRS adoption changes over time. As the market becomes less concentrated, larger auditors becomes less able to demand a premium for their services. Consistent with my arguments, results suggest that the change in audit service fees declines over time, although this effect seems concentrated among the Big 4. I also find that this effect is partially attributable to a differential effect of the auditors' experience in pricing audit services related to IFRS based on the period in which adoption occurs. The results of these two essays offer important implications to policy debates on the costs and benefits of IFRS adoption. ^ In the third essay, I differentiate Big 4 auditors into three classifications—Parent firms, Brand Name affiliates, and Local affiliates—and test for differences in audit fee premiums (relative to non-Big 4 auditors) and audit quality. Results suggest that there is significant heterogeneity between the three classifications based on both of these characteristics, which is an important consideration for future research. Overall, this dissertation provides additional insights into a variety of aspects of the global audit market.^
Resumo:
Multiple linear regression model plays a key role in statistical inference and it has extensive applications in business, environmental, physical and social sciences. Multicollinearity has been a considerable problem in multiple regression analysis. When the regressor variables are multicollinear, it becomes difficult to make precise statistical inferences about the regression coefficients. There are some statistical methods that can be used, which are discussed in this thesis are ridge regression, Liu, two parameter biased and LASSO estimators. Firstly, an analytical comparison on the basis of risk was made among ridge, Liu and LASSO estimators under orthonormal regression model. I found that LASSO dominates least squares, ridge and Liu estimators over a significant portion of the parameter space for large dimension. Secondly, a simulation study was conducted to compare performance of ridge, Liu and two parameter biased estimator by their mean squared error criterion. I found that two parameter biased estimator performs better than its corresponding ridge regression estimator. Overall, Liu estimator performs better than both ridge and two parameter biased estimator.
Resumo:
The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when sample size is less than one hundred and for such distributions, the kurtosis test is most powerful provided the distribution is leptokurtic or platykurtic. The Shapiro-Wilk test remains the most powerful test for asymmetric distributions. We conclude that different tests are suitable under different characteristics of alternative distributions.
Resumo:
This paper analyzed the relation between participation and school autonomy, observing Director actions and School Council actions and if school has pedagogic, administrative and financial autonomy. This is a descriptive search, with quantitative approach, realized in 47 state schools in Rio Grande do Norte, and composed by 292 participants, divided in 3 groups (Direction, Coordination and School Council). The instrument to catch data was a questionnaire and the data treatment realized by way descriptive statistic and inferences using X 2 test. The results show that school administration is composed in great part by women with specialization grade. All schools have School Council and Financial Council, but have not Parents and Masters Association and just one of them has Student Guild. The direction choose process is, in 83% of the schools, by elective way. The indicators show that the relation involving family, society and school stays weak, but Directors, Coordinators and School Council members develop their functions with coherence. About autonomy, it is limited and presents correlation with participation, but the educational system stays rigid and centralizer
Resumo:
The plant metabolism consists of a complex network of physical and chemical events resulting in photosynthesis, respiration, synthesis and degradation of organic compounds. This is only possible due to the different kinds of responses to many environmental variations that a plant could be subject through evolution, leading also to conquering new surroundings. The glyoxylate cycle is a metabolic pathway found in glyoxysomes plant, which has unique role in the seedling establishment. Considered as a variation of the citric acid cycle, it uses an acetyl coenzyme A molecule, derived from lipids beta-oxidation to synthesize compounds which are used in carbohydrate synthesis. The Malate synthase (MLS) and Isocitrate lyase (ICL) enzyme of this cycle are unique and essential in regulating the biosynthesis of carbohydrates. Because of the absence of decarboxylation steps as rate-limiting steps, detailed studies of molecular phylogeny and evolution of these proteins enables the elucidation of the effects of this route presence in the evolutionary processes involved in their distribution across the genome from different plant species. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a relationship between the molecular evolution of the characteristics of enzymes from the glyoxylate cycle (isocitrate lyase and malate synthase) and their molecular phylogeny, among green plants (Viridiplantae). For this, amino acid and nucleotide sequences were used, from online repositories as UniProt and Genbank. Sequences were aligned and then subjected to an analysis of the best-fit substitution models. The phylogeny was rebuilt by distance methods (neighbor-joining) and discrete methods (maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis). The identification of structural patterns in the evolution of the enzymes was made through homology modeling and structure prediction from protein sequences. Based on comparative analyzes of in silico models and from the results of phylogenetic inferences, both enzymes show significant structure conservation and their topologies in agreement with two processes of selection and specialization of the genes. Thus, confirming the relevance of new studies to elucidate the plant metabolism from an evolutionary perspective
Resumo:
In this work we have investigated some aspects of the two-dimensional flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a disordered porous medium modeled by a random fractal system similar to the Sierpinski carpet. This fractal is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose distribution function follows a power law. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The velocity field and other details of fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically of the Navier-Stokes and continuity equations at the pore level, where occurs actually the flow of fluids in porous media. The results of numerical simulations allowed us to analyze the distribution of shear stresses developed in the solid-fluid interfaces, and find algebraic relations between the viscous forces or of friction with the geometric parameters of the model, including its fractal dimension. Based on the numerical results, we proposed scaling relations involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon, allowing quantifying the fractions of these forces with respect to size classes of obstacles. Finally, it was also possible to make inferences about the fluctuations in the form of the distribution of viscous stresses developed on the surface of obstacles.
Resumo:
This research seeks to reflect on the dynamics of television reception, studying the Brazilian TV miniseries Hoje é Dia de Maria, produced by Globo Television Network, and aims to generally promote inferences in the process of image reading, mainly for aesthetic reading in school context, aiming at the formation of visual proficient readers. The research was conducted with students from the third grade of a state high school, geographically located in the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The theoretical framework comes from the assumptions of cognitive social interactionism to understand language, and it is also based on the ideas of Bakhtin (1992) and Vygotsky (1998), which enabled us to understand the social interaction and the Theory of Aesthetics Reception and Aesthetic Effect with Jauss (1979) and Iser (1999), which provided a better understanding of aesthetic experience, aesthetic effects and production of meaning. The methodological approach assumes a qualitative nature and an interpretive bias, accomplished through interviews, observation, questionnaire and application of a set of investigative activities, such as introductory exposition of themes, handing out of images and mediation process. This research is the result of a research-action process in a pedagogical intervention in a state school. The results indicate that the interactional linguistic resources used by the speakers demonstrated lack of prior knowledge and repertoire regarding image reading, which initially led them to do a cursory reading. It was evident that the respondents were unaware of the initial proposal. However, throughout the meetings, it was possible to realize their transformation, because the pre-established concepts were analyzed with the help of mediation, so that the group felt more autonomous and safe to read images at the end. The survey also showed significant data, so that the school could develop new methods of teaching televisual reading.
Resumo:
Feeding is the primary selective pressure in all forms of animals. Nutritional ecological models predict consequences of preferred and non-preferred food consumption on behavioural, physiological and morphological adaptations. At same time, socioecological models infer socio-organizarion patterns based on feeding competition faced by animals. A list of preferred foods, and inferences regarding the intensity of feeding competition and its behavioural consequences are information of much importance for management of populations in fragments. In this work we observed the feeding behavior and spatial positioning of a group of more than 100 blond capuchin monkeys (Sapajus flavius) that inhabit a fragment of Atlantic forest, surrounded by sugarcane plantation. We compared the consumption of different food items with their monthly availability in the area to define the preferred and fallback food items. We recorded the vocalizations of aggression and the inter-individual distance (area of Minimum Convex Polygon/n individuals) to infer the type of food competition experienced by animals. In the year studied the fruit feeding time correlated with top consumed fruit productivity, indicating preference for fruits. Our data indicate that the species Elaeis sp., Cecropia palmata, Inga spp. and Simarouba amara are the preferred food items in the diet. Available all year round and uniformly distributed, sugarcane was a regular item in the diet and its was characterized as a staple fallback food for this group. Although fruits are preferential food items, direct competition rate did not correlate to fruit productivity in the area, maintaining the high rates throughout the year (2.45 events/ hour). The inter-individual distance index positively correlated with rain fall indicating scramble food competition. The number of neighbours of females carrying infants was smaller when fruit productivity is low, indicating that females carrying infants are suffering increased indirect competition. Our data indicates that blond capuchins in this fragment make use of sugar cane as a staple fallback food, which evidence the importance of sugar cane landscape for the survival of this critically endangered capuchin species in fragmented habitats in Northeast Brazil. A preliminary list of preferred and important foods is offered, and can assist in the choice of trees for reforestation, better fragments to be preserved and areas of release and translocation of animals. We did not observe an increase of contest competition while using preferred foods, but when using staple FBF. This may be due the altered environment, which results in high competition food throughout the year. Both the food preference as the social and behavioral consequences of high food competition experienced by animals in this fragment must be accompanied over the years to ensure the survival of this population.
Resumo:
Feeding is the primary selective pressure in all forms of animals. Nutritional ecological models predict consequences of preferred and non-preferred food consumption on behavioural, physiological and morphological adaptations. At same time, socioecological models infer socio-organizarion patterns based on feeding competition faced by animals. A list of preferred foods, and inferences regarding the intensity of feeding competition and its behavioural consequences are information of much importance for management of populations in fragments. In this work we observed the feeding behavior and spatial positioning of a group of more than 100 blond capuchin monkeys (Sapajus flavius) that inhabit a fragment of Atlantic forest, surrounded by sugarcane plantation. We compared the consumption of different food items with their monthly availability in the area to define the preferred and fallback food items. We recorded the vocalizations of aggression and the inter-individual distance (area of Minimum Convex Polygon/n individuals) to infer the type of food competition experienced by animals. In the year studied the fruit feeding time correlated with top consumed fruit productivity, indicating preference for fruits. Our data indicate that the species Elaeis sp., Cecropia palmata, Inga spp. and Simarouba amara are the preferred food items in the diet. Available all year round and uniformly distributed, sugarcane was a regular item in the diet and its was characterized as a staple fallback food for this group. Although fruits are preferential food items, direct competition rate did not correlate to fruit productivity in the area, maintaining the high rates throughout the year (2.45 events/ hour). The inter-individual distance index positively correlated with rain fall indicating scramble food competition. The number of neighbours of females carrying infants was smaller when fruit productivity is low, indicating that females carrying infants are suffering increased indirect competition. Our data indicates that blond capuchins in this fragment make use of sugar cane as a staple fallback food, which evidence the importance of sugar cane landscape for the survival of this critically endangered capuchin species in fragmented habitats in Northeast Brazil. A preliminary list of preferred and important foods is offered, and can assist in the choice of trees for reforestation, better fragments to be preserved and areas of release and translocation of animals. We did not observe an increase of contest competition while using preferred foods, but when using staple FBF. This may be due the altered environment, which results in high competition food throughout the year. Both the food preference as the social and behavioral consequences of high food competition experienced by animals in this fragment must be accompanied over the years to ensure the survival of this population.
Resumo:
Leishmania infantum is the main etiologic agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the New World. The pattern of distribution of leishmaniasis has changed substantially and has presented an emerging profile within the periphery of the Large Urban Centers. Leishmania infection can compromise skin, mucosa and viscera. Only 10% of the individuals infected develop the disease and 90% of human infection is asymptomatic. The main factors involved in the development of the disease are the host immune response, the vector’s species and the parasite’s genetic content. The sequencing of Leishmania isolated seeks to increase the understanding of the symptoms of individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity of circulating Leishmania strains among humans, and symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs from endemic areas of Rio Grande do Norte State and analyze sandflies from endemic areas for cutaneous and visceral disease. The genetic variability was evaluated by the use of markers hsp70 , ITS1 and a whole genome sequencing was also carried out. The amplified hsp70 and ITS1 of samples were analyzed and assembled using a Phred / Phrap package. The dendograms were constructed using the same methodology, but adding 500 bootstraps, followed by inferences on the relationships between Leishmania variants. The sequences of the 20 Brazilian isolates were mapped to the reference genome L. infantum JPCM5, using the Bowtie2 program and the identification of 36 contigs. The information of the valid SNPs were used in the PCA. SNPs were visualized by Geneious 7.1 and IGV. The genome annotations were transferred to their respective chromosomes and displayed on Geneious. The matching sequences of all chromosomes were aligned using Mauve. The phylogenetic trees were calculated according to maximum likelihood and JTT models. Sandflies were analyzed by PCR for the identification of Leishmania infection, a blood meal source and GAPDH sand fly. As a result, hsp70 and ITS1 were not capable of identifying genetic variability among human isolates from symptomatic and asymptomatic, and dogs. The complete sequencing of the 20 Brazilian isolates revealed a strong similarity between the circulating Leishmania strains in Rio Grande do Norte. The isolates collected in the city of Natal from humans and canines remained grouped in all analyzes, suggesting that there is genotypic and geographic proximity among the isolates. The isolated samples in the 1990s had a higher genotypic diversity when compared to freshly isolated samples. All isolates presented 36 chromosomes with variable ploidy among them, no correlation was found between the number of amastina genes copies, gp63, A2 and SSG with such clinic forms. In general, we did not find correlation between symptomatic and asymptomatic clinical forms and the gene content of the Brazilian isolates of Leishmania. 34,28% of the sandflies collected in the upper west region were L. longipalpis and the main sources of blood meal were humans, dogs and chickens.