Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.

Heterogeneous products and tests for an appropriate aggregation level considering different qualities: evidence from fresh hake at Barcelona’s wholesale market

[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

Heterogeneous products and tests for an appropriate aggregation level considering different qualities: evidence from fresh hake at Barcelona’s wholesale market

[cat] Aquest estudi destaca la importància de considerar un nivell d’agregació adequat en els anàlisis de demanda, ja que treballar utilitzant un nivell d’agregació inadequat pot donar lloc a estimacions esbiaixades. Aquest fet es mostra a través de l’anàlisi de diferents productes de lluç fresc comercialitzats a Mercabarna, el mercat majorista de Barcelona. La literatura sobre la demanda de peix tracta al lluç com un únic producte i espècie. No obstant això, en el mercat espanyol, es comercialitzen molts peixos com a lluç, els quals mostren comportaments molt diferents (des de béns inferiors fins a béns de luxe). Els resultats obtinguts, en concordança amb les observacions empíriques, demostren que l’anàlisi s’ha de realitzar amb un major grau de detall que a nivell d’espècie. Això qüestiona els resultats d’anteriors estudis de demanda i la majoria de les bases de dades, on l’observació del nivell d’agregació adequat dels productes no es té en compte.

Influència del nombre d'usuaris en sistemes de localització en interiors basats en Wi-Fi

El present estudi descriu el procés de creació d'un sistema de localització en interiors que permet investigar les possibles diferències de la precisió de les localitzacions en entorns buits i amb presència d'altres persones. Posteriorment es presenten una sèrie de proves realitzades, s'exposen els seus resultats, així com les conclusions sobre com influencia el nombre d'usuaris a la precisió del sistema.

Error Modeling and Accuracy Analysis of a Novel Mobile Hybrid Parallel Robot

Over the last decades, calibration techniques have been widely used to improve the accuracy of robots and machine tools since they only involve software modification instead of changing the design and manufacture of the hardware. Traditionally, there are four steps are required for a calibration, i.e. error modeling, measurement, parameter identification and compensation. The objective of this thesis is to propose a method for the kinematics analysis and error modeling of a newly developed hybrid redundant robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot), which possesses ten degrees of freedom (DOF) where 6-DOF in parallel and additional 4-DOF in serial. In this article, the problem of kinematics modeling and error modeling of the proposed IWR robot are discussed. Based on the vector arithmetic method, the kinematics model and the sensitivity model of the end-effector subject to the structure parameters is derived and analyzed. The relations between the pose (position and orientation) accuracy and manufacturing tolerances, actuation errors, and connection errors are formulated. Computer simulation is performed to examine the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

DWI and complex brain network analysis predicts vascular cognitive impairment in spontaneous hypertensive rats undergoing executive function tests

The identification of biomarkers of vascular cognitive impairment is urgent for its early diagnosis. The aim of this study was to detect and monitor changes in brain structure and connectivity, and to correlate them with the decline in executive function. We examined the feasibility of early diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to predict cognitive impairment before onset in an animal model of chronic hypertension: Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats. Cognitive performance was tested in an operant conditioning paradigm that evaluated learning, memory, and behavioral flexibility skills. Behavioral tests were coupled with longitudinal diffusion weighted imaging acquired with 126 diffusion gradient directions and 0.3 mm(3) isometric resolution at 10, 14, 18, 22, 26, and 40 weeks after birth. Diffusion weighted imaging was analyzed in two different ways, by regional characterization of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) indices, and by assessing changes in structural brain network organization based on Q-Ball tractography. Already at the first evaluated times, DTI scalar maps revealed significant differences in many regions, suggesting loss of integrity in white and gray matter of spontaneously hypertensive rats when compared to normotensive control rats. In addition, graph theory analysis of the structural brain network demonstrated a significant decrease of hierarchical modularity, global and local efficacy, with predictive value as shown by regional three-fold cross validation study. Moreover, these decreases were significantly correlated with the behavioral performance deficits observed at subsequent time points, suggesting that the diffusion weighted imaging and connectivity studies can unravel neuroimaging alterations even overt signs of cognitive impairment become apparent.

Position sensorless electrically excited synchronous motor drive for industrial use based on direct flux linkage and torque control

Synchronous machines with an AC converter are used mainly in large drives, for example in ship propulsion drives as well as in rolling mill drives in steel industry. These motors are used because of their high efficiency, high overload capacity and good performance in the field weakening area. Present day drives for electrically excited synchronous motors are equipped with position sensors. Most drives for electrically excited synchronous motors will be equipped with position sensors also in future. This kind of drives with good dynamics are mainly used in metal industry. Drives without a position sensor can be used e.g. in ship propulsion and in large pump and blower drives. Nowadays, these drives are equipped with a position sensor, too. The tendency is to avoid a position sensor if possible, since a sensor reduces the reliability of the drive and increases costs (latter is not very significant for large drives). A new control technique for a synchronous motor drive is a combination of the Direct Flux Linkage Control (DFLC) based on a voltage model and a supervising method (e.g. current model). This combination is called Direct Torque Control method (DTC). In the case of the position sensorless drive, the DTC can be implemented by using other supervising methods that keep the stator flux linkage origin centered. In this thesis, a method for the observation of the drift of the real stator flux linkage in the DTC drive is introduced. It is also shown how this method can be used as a supervising method that keeps the stator flux linkage origin centered in the case of the DTC. In the position sensorless case, a synchronous motor can be started up with the DTC control, when a method for the determination of the initial rotor position presented in this thesis is used. The load characteristics of such a drive are not very good at low rotational speeds. Furthermore, continuous operation at a zero speed and at a low rotational speed is not possible, which is partly due to the problems related to the flux linkage estimate. For operation in a low speed area, a stator current control method based on the DFLC modulator (DMCQ is presented. With the DMCC, it is possible to start up and operate a synchronous motor at a zero speed and at low rotational speeds in general. The DMCC is necessary in situations where high torque (e.g. nominal torque) is required at the starting moment, or if the motor runs several seconds at a zero speed or at a low speed range (up to 2 Hz). The behaviour of the described methods is shown with test results. The test results are presented for the direct flux linkage and torque controlled test drive system with a 14.5 kVA, four pole salient pole synchronous motor with a damper winding and electric excitation. The static accuracy of the drive is verified by measuring the torque in a static load operation, and the dynamics of the drive is proven in load transient tests. The performance of the drive concept presented in this work is sufficient e.g. for ship propulsion and for large pump drives. Furthermore, the developed methods are almost independent of the machine parameters.

Um novo método para quantificar mercúrio orgânico (Hg orgânico) empregando a espectrometria de fluorescência atômica do vapor frio

In this work a simple and sensitive procedure to extract organic mercury from water and sediment samples, using methylene chloride in acidic media followed by CVAFS quantification has been developed. The method was evaluated for possible interferents, using different inorganic mercury species and humic acid, no effects being observed. The detection limit for organic mercury was 160 pg and 396 pg for water and sediment samples respectively. The accuracy of the method was evaluated using a certified reference material of methylmercury (BCR-580, estuarine sediment). Recovery tests using methylmercury as surrogate spiked with 1.0 up to 30.0 ng L-1 ranged from 90 up to 109% for water samples, whereas for sediments, recoveries ranged from 57 up to 97%.

The adequacy of different robust statistical tests in comparing two independent groups

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each condition, 5000 replications per group were generated. The results obtained by this study show an adequate type error I rate but not a high power for the confidence intervals. In general, for the two scenarios studied (mean population differences and not mean population differences) in the different conditions analysed, the Mann-Whitney U-test demonstrated strong performance, and a little worse the t-test of Yuen-Welch.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Conservation Genetics of Exploited Finnish Salmonid Fishes

Genetic diversity is one of the levels of biodiversity that the World Conservation Union (IUCN) has recognized as being important to preserve. This is because genetic diversity is fundamental to the future evolution and to the adaptive flexibility of a species to respond to the inherently dynamic nature of the natural world. Therefore, the key to maintaining biodiversity and healthy ecosystems is to identify, monitor and maintain locally-adapted populations, along with their unique gene pools, upon which future adaptation depends. Thus, conservation genetics deals with the genetic factors that affect extinction risk and the genetic management regimes required to minimize the risk. The conservation of exploited species, such as salmonid fishes, is particularly challenging due to the conflicts between different interest groups. In this thesis, I conduct a series of conservation genetic studies on primarily Finnish populations of two salmonid fish species (European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, and lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta) which are popular recreational game fishes in Finland. The general aim of these studies was to apply and develop population genetic approaches to assist conservation and sustainable harvest of these populations. The approaches applied included: i) the characterization of population genetic structure at national and local scales; ii) the identification of management units and the prioritization of populations for conservation based on evolutionary forces shaping indigenous gene pools; iii) the detection of population declines and the testing of the assumptions underlying these tests; and iv) the evaluation of the contribution of natural populations to a mixed stock fishery. Based on microsatellite analyses, clear genetic structuring of exploited Finnish grayling and brown trout populations was detected at both national and local scales. Finnish grayling were clustered into three genetically distinct groups, corresponding to northern, Baltic and south-eastern geographic areas of Finland. The genetic differentiation among and within population groups of grayling ranged from moderate to high levels. Such strong genetic structuring combined with low genetic diversity strongly indicates that genetic drift plays a major role in the evolution of grayling populations. Further analyses of European grayling covering the majority of the species’ distribution range indicated a strong global footprint of population decline. Using a coalescent approach the beginning of population reduction was dated back to 1 000-10 000 years ago (ca. 200-2 000 generations). Forward simulations demonstrated that the bottleneck footprints measured using the M ratio can persist within small populations much longer than previously anticipated in the face of low levels of gene flow. In contrast to the M ratio, two alternative methods for genetic bottleneck detection identified recent bottlenecks in six grayling populations that warrant future monitoring. Consistent with the predominant role of random genetic drift, the effective population size (N_e) estimates of all grayling populations were very low with the majority of N_e estimates below 50. Taken together, highly structured local populations, limited gene flow and the small N_e of grayling populations indicates that grayling populations are vulnerable to overexploitation and, hence, monitoring and careful management using the precautionary principles is required not only in Finland but throughout Europe. Population genetic analyses of lake-run brown trout populations in the Inari basin (northernmost Finland) revealed hierarchical population structure where individual populations were clustered into three population groups largely corresponding to different geographic regions of the basin. Similar to my earlier work with European grayling, the genetic differentiation among and within population groups of lake-run brown trout was relatively high. Such strong differentiation indicated that the power to determine the relative contribution of populations in mixed fisheries should be relatively high. Consistent with these expectations, high accuracy and precision in mixed stock analysis (MSA) simulations were observed. Application of MSA to indigenous fish caught in the Inari basin identified altogether twelve populations that contributed significantly to mixed stock fisheries with the Ivalojoki river system being the major contributor (70%) to the total catch. When the contribution of wild trout populations to the fisheries was evaluated regionally, geographically nearby populations were the main contributors to the local catches. MSA also revealed a clear separation between the lower and upper reaches of Ivalojoki river system – in contrast to lower reaches of the Ivalojoki river that contributed considerably to the catch, populations from the upper reaches of the Ivalojoki river system (>140 km from the river mouth) did not contribute significantly to the fishery. This could be related to the available habitat size but also associated with a resident type life history and increased cost of migration. The studies in my thesis highlight the importance of dense sampling and wide population coverage at the scale being studied and also demonstrate the importance of critical evaluation of the underlying assumptions of the population genetic models and methods used. These results have important implications for conservation and sustainable fisheries management of Finnish populations of European grayling and brown trout in the Inari basin.

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.

Determination of Cd and Pb in fuel ethanol by filter furnace electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A method was developed for quantification of Cd and Pb in ethanol fuel by filter furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Filter furnace was used to eliminate the need for chemical modification, to stabilize volatile analytes and to allow the application of short pyrolysis step. The determinations in samples were carried out against calibration solutions prepared in ethanol. Recovery tests were made in seven commercial ethanol fuel samples with values between 90 and 120%. Limits of detection were 0.1 µg L-1 for Cd and 0.3 µg L-1 for Pb. Certified water samples (APS 1071, APS 1033, NIST 1643d, NIST 1640) were also used to evaluate accuracy and recoveries from 86.8% to115% were obtained.

Validação de método para a determinação de 5-hidroximetilfurfural em mel por cromatografia líquida e sua influência na qualidade do produto

In honey 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furaldehyde (HMF) is one of the most typical products of degradation: it is usually absent in fresh honey, but its concentration tends to rise as a result of heating processes or long-term storage. The validation protocol was performed in terms of detection and quantification limits, precision (by repeatability and intermediate precision), linearity and accuracy (by recovery tests). The method has been tested on 15 honey samples of different ages and geographical origin. HMF correlated highly with the age of the samples has been considered a very important parameter to put these honeys on the market or not and/or to estimate their shelf life.