Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Wage curves for Spain evidence from the family budget survey

This study explores the existence of a wage curve for Spain. To quantify this relationship for the Spanish economy, we used individual datafrom the EPF 1990-1991. The results show the presence of a wage curve with an elasticity of -0.13. The availability of very detailed information on wages and unemployment has also shown that less protected labour market groups -young workers, manual workers and building sector workers- have a higher elasticity of wages to local unemployment. These results could be interpreted as a greater facility of firms in these segments to settle wages as a function ofthe unemployment rate

The effects of electron-hole separation on the photoconductivity of individual metal oxide nanowires

The responses of individual ZnO nanowires to UV light demonstrate that the persistent photoconductivity (PPC) state is directly related to the electron¿hole separation near the surface. Our results demonstrate that the electrical transport in these nanomaterials is influenced by the surface in two different ways. On the one hand, the effective mobility and the density of free carriers are determined by recombination mechanisms assisted by the oxidizing molecules in air. This phenomenon can also be blocked by surface passivation. On the other hand, the surface built-in potential separates the photogenerated electron¿hole pairs and accumulates holes at the surface. After illumination, the charge separation makes the electron¿hole recombination difficult and originates PPC. This effect is quickly reverted after increasing either the probing current (self-heating by Joule dissipation) or the oxygen content in air (favouring the surface recombination mechanisms). The model for PPC in individual nanowires presented here illustrates the intrinsic potential of metal oxide nanowires to develop optoelectronic devices or optochemical sensors with better and new performances.

Time of ruin in a risk model with generalized Erlang (n) interclaim times and a constant dividend barrier

In this paper we analyze the time of ruin in a risk process with the interclaim times being Erlang(n) distributed and a constant dividend barrier. We obtain an integro-differential equation for the Laplace Transform of the time of ruin. Explicit solutions for the moments of the time of ruin are presented when the individual claim amounts have a distribution with rational Laplace transform. Finally, some numerical results and a compare son with the classical risk model, with interclaim times following an exponential distribution, are given.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Wage curves for Spain evidence from the family budget survey

This study explores the existence of a wage curve for Spain. To quantify this relationship for the Spanish economy, we used individual datafrom the EPF 1990-1991. The results show the presence of a wage curve with an elasticity of -0.13. The availability of very detailed information on wages and unemployment has also shown that less protected labour market groups -young workers, manual workers and building sector workers- have a higher elasticity of wages to local unemployment. These results could be interpreted as a greater facility of firms in these segments to settle wages as a function ofthe unemployment rate

Graduate labor mismatch in Central and Eastern Europe

[cat] Utilitzant l’enquesta REFLEX/HEGESCO, aquest article explora la probabilitat de desajustament entre educació i treball a l’Europa de l’Est i Central. Classifiquem els països en dos grups segons la transparència dels títols educatius al mercat de treball. Polònia, la República Txeca i Eslovènia formen el grup amb més transparència, i Hongria, Lituània i Estònia formen el grup amb més opacitat. Analitzem tres tipus de desajustaments: el vertical (infra‐, sobre‐educació), l’horitzontal (desajustament del camp d’estudi) i el desajust en habilitats. Focalitzem l’anàlisi en l’efecte dels camps d’estudi i les competències dels individus en el desajustament del mercat laboral en aquests països. Els resultats mostren importants diferències entre els dos grups de països estudiats.

Aggregate monotonic stable single-valued solutions for cooperative games

[cat] En aquest treball caracteritzem les solucions puntuals de jocs cooperatius d'utilitat transferible que compleixen selecció del core i monotonia agregada. També mostrem que aquestes dues propietats són compatibles amb la individualitat racional, la propietat del jugador fals i la propietat de simetria. Finalment, caracteritzem les solucions puntuals que compleixen les cinc propietats a l'hora.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Capital humano local y productividad en las provincias españolas

En la última década, distintos estudios han intentado contrastar empíricamente la existencia de una relación entre el stock de capital humanolocal y la productividad del territorio, así como la posible presencia de economías externas asociadas a aquél. El resultado común de dichos estudios ha consistido en encontrar una correlación positiva entre ambas variables Losdiversos autores no coinciden, en cambio, a la hora de explicar dicho resultado: un primer grupo de autores argumenta la presencia de economíasexternas vinculadas al capital humano mientras que un segundo grupo plantea la existencia de relaciones de complementariedad entre los diversos factores productivos y, más en concreto, entre el capital humano y el capital físico.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la existencia de una posible relación positiva entre el nivel de capital humano de las provincias españolas y su productividad de éstas y, a continuación, averiguar si el canal a través delcual se produce el efecto son las economías externas. Para ello, se aplica unametodología que consta de dos etapas. En la primera, se estima una ecuación de Mincer utilizando información de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares a fin de obtener una estimación de la productividad media de cada una de las provincias españolas una vez controlado el efecto del capital humano de los individuos sobre su propia productividad. En una segunda etapa, la estimación de la productividad provincial media estimada se introduce como variable endógena en una nueva ecuación cuyas variables explicativas intentan aproximar el nivel de capital humano de cada una de las provincias. A partir de esta segunda regresión se detecta una relación positiva entre la productividad media estimada del territorio y el nivel educativo medio delmismo. Sin embargo, la principal conclusión del análisis realizado es que dicha relación no puede explicarse por el impacto de las economías externas generadas exógenamente por el capital humano, sino que debe atribuirse a otros efectos que, actuando también por lado de la demanda, impulsen al alza la productividad.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Regional structure of wages and external economies in Spain

Regional data on wages for the Spanish economy show that workers who live in developed regions earn more than workers in other regions.Literature on external economies provides a possible explanation of why firms do not move from these regions to others where wages are lower. Previous studies for the Spanish case use aggregated sectoral data to explain in terms of external economies why average wages are different across regions. The originalcontribution of this paper consists of using individual data to detect the existenceand nature of external economies as an explanatory cause of territorial wagedifferences. With this aim, we have used individual data from the EPF 1990-91(INE). This information permits us to control the influence of individual and jobcharacteristics on wages to, first, detect the existence of external economies and,second, to test alternative explanations of their presence. The empirical evidenceobtained confirms the relevance of territorial external economies and their influence on wages, as a result of improvements in the productive efficiency of the firm. In concrete terms, the more relevant external economies are associatedwith the regional human capital stock and geographical productive specialisation

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

The aggregate claims distribution of a life insurance portfolio with a pairwise positive dependence structure

The individual life model has always been considered as the one closest to the real situation of the total claims of a life insurance portfolio. It only makes the ¿nearly inevitable assumption¿ of independence of the lifelenghts of insured persons in the portfolio. Many clinical studies, however, have demonstrated positive dependence of paired lives such as husband and wife. In our opinion, it won¿t be unrealistic expecting a considerable number of married couples in any life insurance portfolio (e.g. life insurance contracts formalized at the time of signing a mortatge) and these dependences materially increase the values for the stop-loss premiums associated to the aggregate claims of the portfolio. Since the stop-loss order is the order followed by any risk averse decison maker, the simplifying hypothesis of independence constitute a real financial danger for the company, in the sense that most of their decisions are based on the aggregated claims distribution. In this paper, we will determine approximations for the distribution of the aggregate claims of a life insurance portfolio with some married couples and we will describe how to make safe decisions when we don¿t know exactly the dependence structure between the risks in each couple. Results in this paper are partly based on results in Dhaene and Goovaerts (1997)

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process