Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

Marketing channel behaviour and performance

Thesis submitted to University of Manchester for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business Administration.

Estágio TAP/Megasys - Data Warehouse & Reporting

Mestrado em Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

De Born Global a multinacional. Caso de Estudo : sector das tecnologias de informação

Mestrado em Marketing

O sistema integrado de gestão e a contabilidade analítica no Exército Português

Preparar a mudança é uma necessidade que se impõe à Administração Pública a fim de melhorar a qualidade da informação e do controlo sobre a gestão dos seus recursos humanos, financeiros e materiais. Na senda da melhoria contínua, o Exército Português tem procurado equiparar-se aos seus congéneres, explorando as tecnologias disponíveis, tendo como objetivo para 2016 dar continuidade ao desenvolvimento do projeto de implementação da Contabilidade Analítica através do Sistema Integrado de Gestão do Ministério da Defesa Nacional. A Contabilidade Analítica surge revigorada no recente Decreto-Lei nº 192/2015 - Sistema de Normalização Contabilística para as Administrações Públicas - visando satisfazer diversas necessidades de informação no processo de tomada de decisão. No entanto, este tipo de ferramenta deve ser concebida em colaboração com os decisores, no sentido de se ajustarem às reais necessidades da organização. A presente investigação aplicada tem como objetivo verificar se o Sistema Integrado de Gestão do Ministério da Defesa Nacional tem capacidade e potencialidade para disponibilizar informação analítica relevante para apoiar o processo de tomada de decisão dos Órgãos Centrais de Comando do Exército Português. Numa primeira fase, além da pesquisa bibliográfica e análise documental, foram feitas entrevistas exploratórias aos principais intervenientes que estiveram presentes nos projetos de implementação da Contabilidade Analítica levados a cabo no Exército. Posteriormente, foram entrevistados em cada Órgão Central de Comando, os Comandantes/Diretores/Chefes e os principais conselheiros na área financeira. Os resultados apontam para a existência de um considerável interesse por parte dos entrevistados relativamente à utilidade da informação analítica no apoio à tomada de decisão. Contudo, este tipo de informação não se encontra atualmente disponível, sendo necessário o reforço ou organização de um núcleo afeto em exclusividade à Contabilidade Analítica, bem como proceder à formação e mentalização dos utilizadores desta ferramenta aos vários níveis da hierarquia.

Design of bicycling suitability maps for hilly cities

Post-print version. Pictures and tables separated from main text and presented at the end.

Design of evacuation plans for densely urbanised city centres

The high population density and tightly packed nature of some city centres make emergency planning for these urban spaces especially important, given the potential for human loss in case of disaster. Historic and recent events have made emergency service planners particularly conscious of the need for preparing evacuation plans in advance. This paper discusses a methodological approach for assisting decision-makers in designing urban evacuation plans. The approach aims at quickly and safely moving the population away from the danger zone into shelters. The plans include determining the number and location of rescue facilities, as well as the paths that people should take from their building to their assigned shelter in case of an occurrence requiring evacuation. The approach is thus of the location–allocation–routing type, through the existing streets network, and takes into account the trade-offs among different aspects of evacuation actions that inevitably come up during the planning stage. All the steps of the procedure are discussed and systematised, along with computational and practical implementation issues, in the context of a case study – the design of evacuation plans for the historical centre of an old European city.

La participation en amont de grands projets d'aménagement : les effets sur le projet et ses acteurs.

Depuis plus de trente ans, nos pratiques démocratiques évoluent au rythme de liens grandissants entre les instances décisionnelles et la société civile. Les exemples de démarches participatives s’accumulent et leurs formes sont de plus en plus diverses. Au cours des dernières années, les démarches en amont sont de plus en plus présentes dans le paysage participatif et les organisations sont plus nombreuses que jamais à faire le pari de l’amont. C’est le cas d’Hydro-Québec avec ses les tables d’information et d’échange (TIE). Ces tables, existantes depuis la fin des années 1990 et dirigées par le maître d’ouvrage, regroupent plusieurs acteurs du milieu. Elles se tiennent dès le début du processus de planification. L’Office de consultation publique de Montréal (OCPM) a elle aussi faut le saut en amont en adaptant ses méthodes pour intervenir plus tôt dans le processus pour certains mandats. À travers deux études de cas, une portant sur les TIE du complexe hydroélectrique de la Romaine, et l’autre sur la consultation de l’OCPM sur la planification détaillée du secteur de Griffintown, ce mémoire explore les effets de la participation en amont sur les projets et sur ces acteurs.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.

La participation en amont de grands projets d'aménagement : les effets sur le projet et ses acteurs

Depuis plus de trente ans, nos pratiques démocratiques évoluent au rythme de liens grandissants entre les instances décisionnelles et la société civile. Les exemples de démarches participatives s’accumulent et leurs formes sont de plus en plus diverses. Au cours des dernières années, les démarches en amont sont de plus en plus présentes dans le paysage participatif et les organisations sont plus nombreuses que jamais à faire le pari de l’amont. C’est le cas d’Hydro-Québec avec ses les tables d’information et d’échange (TIE). Ces tables, existantes depuis la fin des années 1990 et dirigées par le maître d’ouvrage, regroupent plusieurs acteurs du milieu. Elles se tiennent dès le début du processus de planification. L’Office de consultation publique de Montréal (OCPM) a elle aussi faut le saut en amont en adaptant ses méthodes pour intervenir plus tôt dans le processus pour certains mandats. À travers deux études de cas, une portant sur les TIE du complexe hydroélectrique de la Romaine, et l’autre sur la consultation de l’OCPM sur la planification détaillée du secteur de Griffintown, ce mémoire explore les effets de la participation en amont sur les projets et sur ces acteurs.

Améliorer la compréhension et la gestion des conflits d’intérêts des experts conseillant la prise de décisions en santé publique

Étude de cas / Case study

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

Big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living

Objectives: To discuss how current research in the area of smart homes and ambient assisted living will be influenced by the use of big data. Methods: A scoping review of literature published in scientific journals and conference proceedings was performed, focusing on smart homes, ambient assisted living and big data over the years 2011-2014. Results: The health and social care market has lagged behind other markets when it comes to the introduction of innovative IT solutions and the market faces a number of challenges as the use of big data will increase. First, there is a need for a sustainable and trustful information chain where the needed information can be transferred from all producers to all consumers in a structured way. Second, there is a need for big data strategies and policies to manage the new situation where information is handled and transferred independently of the place of the expertise. Finally, there is a possibility to develop new and innovative business models for a market that supports cloud computing, social media, crowdsourcing etc. Conclusions: The interdisciplinary area of big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living is no longer only of interest for IT developers, it is also of interest for decision makers as customers make more informed choices among today's services. In the future it will be of importance to make information usable for managers and improve decision making, tailor smart home services based on big data, develop new business models, increase competition and identify policies to ensure privacy, security and liability.

Behavioural agency theory and the family business

The behavioural agency theory was developed to provide a more comprehensive explanation and prediction of managerial risk taking, in response to some shortcomings of agency theory. In general, the theory offers explanations of why decision makers prefer some strategic choices to others. The use of behavioural agency theory in family business research has, however, been very limited. Family business scholars recently adapted this theory to construct the family business variant, the ‘socioemotional wealth’ construct, which offers better explanations for the risk taking and decision making behaviours of family firms. This chapter provides an overview of behavioural agency theory and the socioemotional wealth construct, explores how they have been used in family business research, and offers suggestions for how this theory can be used in further research to contribute to both the family business and the general management literature. Keywords: family business, behavioural agency theory, socioemotional wealth, family firm heterogeneity.

Améliorer la compréhension et la gestion des conflits d’intérêts des experts conseillant la prise de décisions en santé publique

Étude de cas / Case study