Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

A fundamentação microeconômica da macroeconomia e o problema da coordenação econômica

O objetivo deste artigo é discutir a necessidade de uma microfundamentação para a macroeconomia. Para tanto procurará mostrar que este é um falso problema para a análise Keynesiana, na medida em que esta supõe que a coordenação da economia não pode ser feita mediante os mecanismos de preços, mas que depende de certos arranjos institucionais. De outro lado, a análise procurará mostrar que os mecanismos de preços não podem coordenar uma economia real, no caso a capitalista, se supusermos realisticamente que esta apresenta, através do mecanismo de preços, comportamentos complexos e/ou caóticos.

Fatores da administração do sistema penitenciário do Rio de Janeiro que os impedem de cumprirem com sua missão de recuperação do detento?

Since some years ago, the penitentiany systen of Rio de Janeiro is going through the nuest sendus administrative crisis,leading more and more to chaotic situations, over imagined before by homan being. Nowadays all the factors and components of the existing models are still medievaIs, and even distant fron the human needs. The daily life ofthe condemned is a sway betuen lack of hygiene, disrespect to homan rigts, lack of modem corrective practices and also, lack of psychological support. How, then can me demand from the state ( Govemment) the rehabilitation of the imprisoned and their preparation to face society if they are treated manny times as victins of this same society? This society impose a life style enjoyed only by a privileged social class which forget about then when sent to the darkness. Many of then, join the penitentary systen because of minor crimes, and when they serve their tem, um for funately they go back to prison accused for move violent crimes. The penitentian models haven't developed the same way the society where they worked at has. There, the present brazilian penitentiary model has showed obsolete and inefficient alone its principal mission ofrehabilitation and re - education ofthe imprisoned. Our main objetive will be the construction and analysis of the penitential administrative model, as being able to fullfill the necesity of the penitentiary administrator (Manager). Analy zing on a specific reasoning which focus showld not be that of the theories and isolated projects of the topic, we will develop a progran far form religions, judiciary on political technics by building na administrtive penitentiary model strictly professional where we coul a have a deep analysis of the topic. We will try to approach the aspects of organization existing to day inorder to understand them and criate, a model wich will adjust betten to the necesitives of this thesis.

Fluxos de ações e processos decisórios na gestão pública local: estudos de casos de projetos e programas inovadores em municípios de pequeno porte populacional

O ponto de partida para este estudo foi o contraste entre a provável centralidade da decisão, defendida em boa parte da literatura administrativa, e a experiência de inclusão digital bem sucedida implantada na pequena cidade de Piraí-RJ. A originalidade deste programa e a sua maneira aparentemente caótica de encaminhamento foram inquietações que impulsionaram o retorno do pesquisador às teorias sobre o processo decisório e a formulação e implantação de políticas públicas. Neste trabalho busca-se contribuir com o debate sobre a decisão e o processo decisório a partir de duas questões de pesquisa: qual a centralidade dos processos decisórios para os resultados alcançados nas experiências consideradas inovadoras em municípios de pequeno porte populacional (abaixo de 30 mil habitantes)? E como caracterizar esses processos em relação à literatura acadêmica sobre a temática? O foco do trabalho é a área pública, na qual a temática da decisão tem forte intersecção com a temática da formulação e implementação das políticas públicas. Escolheu-se a análise dos fluxos de ações nas ações inovadoras ocorridas em municípios de pequeno porte populacional que correspondem a mais de 80% do total de municípios no Brasil. As limitações da pesquisa estão relacionadas à área pesquisada, ao tipo de município selecionado e aos projetos e programas analisados. As referências teóricas utilizadas neste trabalho são as seguintes: Escolha Racional, Racionalidade Limitada, Agenda de Políticas Públicas, Incrementalismo, Garbage Can, Sensemaking e, finalmente, Groping Along. Para efeitos da articulação entre essas teorias e os casos estudados, utilizou-se a lógica subjacente de cada teoria e a sua relação com o processo relatado pelos participantes das experiências selecionadas. O estudo foi desenvolvido em três fases. Na primeira, após as questões iniciais que emergiram da experiência de inclusão digital em Piraí, fez-se uma revisão bibliográfica da literatura relativa ao processo decisório. A partir disso, fez-se uma análise de documentos e relatos feitos por gestores e técnicos de 34 diferentes experiências inovadoras premiados pelo Programa Gestão Pública e Cidadania, entre 1996-2005, na qual se buscou captar os fluxos de ações que permearam os projetos e programas. Na terceira parte, procedeu-se uma pesquisa em profundidade em quatro estudos de caso nos estados da Bahia, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo, utilizando-se técnicas da história oral e análise de documentos. Os casos estudados foram: Creche Noturna em Laranjal Paulista-SP, Desenvolvimento Local e Inclusão Digital em Piraí-RJ, Desenvolvimento Local Agroambiental em Almadina-BA e, finalmente, Manejo da Samambaia Silvestre em Ilha Comprida-SP. Os resultados obtidos contrastam com a literatura acadêmica cuja lógica subjacente é predominantemente linear e que defende a centralidade e a importância da decisão na obtenção de resultados maximizadores, e sugerem ainda que sejam as proposições dos processos decisórios menos lineares e os processos de formulação de políticas públicas que buscam captar as práticas cotidianas dos gestores permeada pelas imperfeições e deselegâncias do dia-a-dia - que melhor contribuem para sua compreensão.

Empirical measures,learning and sunspot equilibrium

In this paper we construct sunspot equilibria that arrise from chaotic deterministic dynamics. These equilibria are robust and therefore observables. We prove that they may be learned by a sim pie rule based on the histograms or past state variables. This work gives the theoretical justification or deterministic models that might compete with stochastic models to explain real data.

Optimal growth in a two-sector model without discounting: a geometric investigation

We characterize optimal policy in a two-sector growth model with xed coeÆcients and with no discounting. The model is a specialization to a single type of machine of a general vintage capital model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan, and its simplicity is not mirrored in its rich dynamics, and which seem to have been missed in earlier work. Our results are obtained by viewing the model as a specific instance of the general theory of resource allocation as initiated originally by Ramsey and von Neumann and brought to completion by McKenzie. In addition to the more recent literature on chaotic dynamics, we relate our results to the older literature on optimal growth with one state variable: speci cally, to the one-sector setting of Ramsey, Cass and Koopmans, as well as to the two-sector setting of Srinivasan and Uzawa. The analysis is purely geometric, and from a methodological point of view, our work can be seen as an argument, at least in part, for the rehabilitation of geometric methods as an engine of analysis.

Bank networks and firm credit: an agent based model approach

Starting from the idea that economic systems fall into complexity theory, where its many agents interact with each other without a central control and that these interactions are able to change the future behavior of the agents and the entire system, similar to a chaotic system we increase the model of Russo et al. (2014) to carry out three experiments focusing on the interaction between Banks and Firms in an artificial economy. The first experiment is relative to Relationship Banking where, according to the literature, the interaction over time between Banks and Firms are able to produce mutual benefits, mainly due to reduction of the information asymmetry between them. The following experiment is related to information heterogeneity in the credit market, where the larger the bank, the higher their visibility in the credit market, increasing the number of consult for new loans. Finally, the third experiment is about the effects on the credit market of the heterogeneity of prices that Firms faces in the goods market.

A narratological analysis of D. M. Thoma`s: the white hotel (1981)

“A Narratological Analysis of D. M. Thomas’s The White Hotel (1981)” originated within a seminar on British Postmodernist Literature during the first Master’s Degree in “British and North-American Culture and Literature” (2001-04) at the Universidade da Madeira set up by the Department of English and German Studies. This dissertation seeks to present a narratological analysis of Thomas’s novel. The White Hotel stands as a paradigmatic example of the kind of literature that has dominated the British literary scene in the past three decades, commonly referred to as postmodernist fiction, owing to its formal craftsmanship (multiplicity of narrative voices and perspectives, mixing of differing genres and text types, inclusion of embedded narratives) alongside the handling of what are deemed as postmodernist topoi (the distinction between truth and lies, history and fantasy, fact and fiction, the questioning of the nature of aesthetic representation, the role the author and the reader hold in the narrative process, the instability of the linguistic sign, the notion of originality and the moral responsibility the author has towards his/her work), The narratological approach carried out in this research reveals that Thomas’s text constitutes an aesthetic endeavour to challenge the teleological drive that is inherent in any narrative, i. e., the inevitable progression towards a reassuring end. Hence, the subversion of narrative telling, which is a recurrent feature in Thomas’s remaining literary output, mirrors the contemporary distrust in totalising, hierarchised and allencompassing narratives. In its handling of historical events, namely of the Holocaust, The White Hotel invites us to reassess the most profound beliefs we were taught to take for granted: progress, reality and truth. In their place the novel proposes a more flexible conception of both the world and art, especially of literary fiction. In other terms, the world appears as a brutal chaotic place the subject is forced to adjust to. Accordingly, the literary work is deemed hybrid, fragmented and open. So as to put forth the above-mentioned issues, this research work is structured in three main chapters. The initial chapter – “What is Postmodernism?” – advances a scrutiny not only of the seminal but also of more recent studies on postmodernist literary criticism. Following this, in Chapter II – “Postmodernist British Fiction” – a brief overview of postmodernist British fiction is carried out, focusing on the fictional works that, in my opinion, are fundamental for the periodising of British postmodernism. In addition, I felt the need to include a section – “D. M. Thomas as a Postmodernist Novelist” – in which the author’s remaining literary output is briefly examined. Finally, Chapter III – “A Narratological Analysis of The White Hotel” – proposes a narratological analysis of the novel according to the particular Genettian analytical model. To conclude, my dissertation constitutes an approach to D. M. Thomas’s The White Hotel as a text whose very existence is substantiated in the foregrounding of the contingency of all discourses, meeting the postmodernist precepts of openness and subversion of any narrative that claims to be true, globalising and all-inclusive.

Construção, caracterização e aplicação de eletrodos para descarga por arco de cátodo oco

The system built to characterize electrodes and, consequently, deposited fine films are constituted by a hollow cathode that works to discharges and low pressures (approximately 10-3 to 5 mbar), a source DC (0 to 1200 V), a cylindrical camera of closed borossilicato for flanges of stainless steel with an association of vacuum bombs mechanical and spread. In the upper flange it is connected the system of hollow cathode, which possesses an entrance of gas and two entrances for its refrigeration, the same is electrically isolated of the rest of the equipment and it is polarized negatively. In front of the system of hollow cathode there is a movable sample in stainless steel with possibility of moving in the horizontal and vertical. In the vertical, the sample can vary its distance between 0 and 70 mm and, in the horizontal, can leave completely from the front of the hollow cathode. The sample and also the cathode hollow are equipped with cromel-alumel termopares with simultaneous reading of the temperatures during the time of treatment. In this work copper electrodes, bronze, titanium, iron, stainless steel, powder of titanium, powder of titanium and silício, glass and ceramic were used. The electrodes were investigated relating their geometry change and behavior of the plasma of the cavity of hollow cathode and channel of the gas. As the cavity of hollow cathode, the analyzed aspects were the diameter and depth. With the channel of the gas, we verified the diameter. In the two situations, we investigated parameters as flow of the gas, pressure, current and applied tension in the electrode, temperature, loss of mass of the electrode with relationship at the time of use. The flow of gas investigated in the electrodes it was fastened in a work strip from 15 to 6 sccm, the constant pressure of work was among 2.7 to 8 x 10-2 mbar. The applied current was among a strip of work from 0,8 to 0,4 A, and their respective tensions were in a strip from 400 to 220 V. Fixing the value of the current, it was possible to lift the curve of the behavior of the tension with the time of use. That curves esteem in that time of use of the electrode to its efficiency is maximum. The temperatures of the electrodes were in the dependence of that curves showing a maximum temperature when the tension was maximum, yet the measured temperatures in the samples showed to be sensitive the variation of the temperature in the electrodes. An accompaniment of the loss of mass of the electrode relating to its time of use showed that the electrodes that appeared the spherical cavities lost more mass in comparison with the electrodes in that didn't appear. That phenomenon is only seen for pressures of 10-2 mbar, in these conditions a plasma column is formed inside of the channel of the gas and in certain points it is concentrated in form of spheres. Those spherical cavities develop inside of the channel of the gas spreading during the whole extension of the channel of the gas. The used electrodes were cut after they could not be more used, however among those electrodes, films that were deposited in alternate times and the electrodes that were used to deposit films in same times, those films were deposited in the glass substrata, alumina, stainless steel 420, stainless steel 316, silício and steel M2. As the eletros used to deposit films in alternate time as the ones that they were used to deposit in same times, the behavior of the thickness of the film obeyed the curve of the tension with relationship the time of use of the electrode, that is, when the tension was maximum, the thickness of the film was also maximum and when the tension was minimum, the thickness was minimum and in the case where the value of the tension was constant, the thickness of the film tends to be constant. The fine films that were produced they had applications with nano stick, bio-compatibility, cellular growth, inhibition of bacterias, cut tool, metallic leagues, brasagem, pineapple fiber and ornamental. In those films it was investigated the thickness, the adherence and the uniformity characterized by sweeping electronic microscopy. Another technique developed to assist the production and characterization of the films produced in that work was the caloteste. It uses a sphere and abrasive to mark the sample with a cap impression, with that cap form it is possible to calculate the thickness of the film. Through the time of life of the cathode, it was possible to evaluate the rate of waste of its material for the different work conditions. Values of waste rate up to 3,2 x 10-6 g/s were verified. For a distance of the substratum of 11 mm, the deposited film was limited to a circular area of 22 mm diameter mm for high pressures and a circular area of 75 mm for pressure strip. The obtained films presented thickness around 2,1 µm, showing that the discharge of arch of hollow cathode in argon obeys a curve characteristic of the tension with the time of life of the eletrodo. The deposition rate obtained in this system it is of approximately 0,18 µm/min

Efeito pró-inflamatório de uma lectina purificada da esponja marinha Cliona varians

A galactose and sucrose specific lectin from the marine sponge Cliona varians named CvL was purified by acetone fractionation followed by Sepharose CL 4B affinity chromatography. Models of leukocyte migration in vivo were used to study the inflammatory activity of CvL through of mouse paw oedema and peritonitis. Effect of CvL on peritoneal macrophage activation was analyzed. Effects of corticoids and NSAIDS drugs were also evaluated on peritonitis stimulated by CvL. Results showed that mouse hind-paw oedema induced by sub plantar injections of CvL was dependent dose until 50µg/paw. This CvL dose when administered into mouse peritoneal cavities induced maxima cell migration (9283 cells/µL) at 24 hours after injection. This effect was preferentially inhibited by incubation of CvL with the carbohydrates D-galactose followed by sucrose. Pre-treatment of mice with 3% thioglycolate increases the peritoneal macrophage population 2.3 times, and enhanced the neutrophil migration after 24h CvL injection (75.8%, p<0.001) and no significant effect was observed in presence of fMLP. Finally, Pre-treatment of mice with dexamethason (cytokine antagonist) decreased 65.6%, (p<0.001), with diclofenac (non-selective NSAID) decreased 34.5%, (p<0.001) and Celecoxib (selective NSAID) had no effect on leukocyte migration after submission at peritonitis stimulated by CvL, respectively. Summarizing, data suggest that CvL shows pro-inflammatory activity, inducing neutrophil migration probably by pathway on resident macrophage activation and on chemotaxis mediated by cytokines

Nesting architecture and population structure of the fungus-growing ant Cyphomyrmex transversus (Formicidae: Myrmicinae: Attini) in the Brazilian coastal zone of Ilheus, Bahia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A materialização da dignidade da pessoa humana e o cumprimento das penas privativas de liberdade

The current research come from need to analyze possibilities to materialize human dignity principle during freedom curtail penalties fullfilment, abreast finding that internal and international regulations dictate this is the way to be tread by Brazilian penitentiary system, however, verily, indignity, assistance missing, overcrownding, crime, in the end, barbarie reigns. The work will analyze two strands in order to effective the mentioned principle: the state responsability optics, such in internal scope, as internationally, abreast historical omission in satisfy Constitution, international treaties and laws; and also indicating penal execution alternative methods adoption as a way, bringing to fore a case study - called "apaqueano" method. With such desideratum will bring, first of all, considerations about consolidation process of human dignity principle, its concept and essential content. Furthermore, will address historical and philosophical evolution of freedom curtail penalties. As it follows, will be done an approach about constitutional and underconstitutional legislation that disciplines penalties fullfiling in Brazil, analyzing their main aspects, emphasizing the possibility to charge Brazilian state for disregarding mentioned standards. Next, will also be started a critical analyzis about international regulations, which forbids diminishing or cruel penalties or treatments, approaching human rights international treaties and conventions ratified by Braziland their incorporation and effectiveness in local Law, emphasizing monitoring forms and country international charging possibility for disregarding international regulations. Lastly, will advance to the real possibility to materialize human dignity principle in penalties fullfiling, based in a case study verification - the APAC (Associação de Proteção e Assistência aos Condenados) called method, analyzing the various theories about penalties grounding, with emphasis in their ressocializing function, as well as traditional penitentiary systems, and the theory adopted by vernacular order, in desideratum to contribute to improve national penitentiary system chaotic situation

Simulação computacional do escoamento em bombas de cavidades progressivas

The use of Progressing Cavity Pumps (PCPs) in artificial lift applications in low deep wells is becoming more common in the oil industry, mainly, due to its ability to pump heavy oils, produce oil with large concentrations of sand, besides present high efficiency when compared to other artificial lift methods. Although this system has been widely used as an oil lift method, few investigations about its hydrodynamic behavior are presented, either experimental or numeric. Therefore, in order to increase the knowledge about the BCP operational behavior, this work presents a novel computational model for the 3-D transient flow in progressing cavity pumps, which includes the relative motion between rotor and stator, using an element based finite volume method. The model developed is able to accurately predict the volumetric efficiency and viscous looses as well as to provide detailed information of pressure and velocity fields inside the pump. In order to predict PCP performance for low viscosity fluids, advanced turbulence models were used to treat, accurately, the turbulent effects on the flow, which allowed for obtaining results consistent with experimental values encountered in literature. In addition to the 3D computational model, a simplified model was developed, based on mass balance within cavities and on simplification on the momentum equations for fully developed flow along the seal region between cavities. This simplified model, based on previous approaches encountered in literature, has the ability to predict flow rate for a given differential pressure, presenting exactness and low CPU requirements, becoming an engineering tool for quick calculations and providing adequate results, almost real-time time. The results presented in this work consider a rigid stator PCP and the models developed were validated against experimental results from open literature. The results for the 3-D model showed to be sensitive to the mesh size, such that a numerical mesh refinement study is also presented. Regarding to the simplified model, some improvements were introduced in the calculation of the friction factor, allowing the application fo the model for low viscosity fluids, which was unsuccessful in models using similar approaches, presented in previous works

Internal Architecture and Population Size of Acromyrmex subterraneus molestans (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) Nests: Comparison Between a Rural and an Urban Area

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Simulação computacional da interação fluido-estrutura em bombas de cavidades progressivas

The pumping through progressing cavities system has been more and more employed in the petroleum industry. This occurs because of its capacity of elevation of highly viscous oils or fluids with great concentration of sand or other solid particles. A Progressing Cavity Pump (PCP) consists, basically, of a rotor - a metallic device similar to an eccentric screw, and a stator - a steel tube internally covered by a double helix, which may be rigid or deformable/elastomeric. In general, it is submitted to a combination of well pressure with the pressure generated by the pumping process itself. In elastomeric PCPs, this combined effort compresses the stator and generates, or enlarges, the clearance existing between the rotor and the stator, thus reducing the closing effect between their cavities. Such opening of the sealing region produces what is known as fluid slip or slippage, reducing the efficiency of the PCP pumping system. Therefore, this research aims to develop a transient three-dimensional computational model that, based on single-lobe PCP kinematics, is able to simulate the fluid-structure interaction that occurs in the interior of metallic and elastomeric PCPs. The main goal is to evaluate the dynamic characteristics of PCP s efficiency based on detailed and instantaneous information of velocity, pressure and deformation fields in their interior. To reach these goals (development and use of the model), it was also necessary the development of a methodology for generation of dynamic, mobile and deformable, computational meshes representing fluid and structural regions of a PCP. This additional intermediary step has been characterized as the biggest challenge for the elaboration and running of the computational model due to the complex kinematic and critical geometry of this type of pump (different helix angles between rotor and stator as well as large length scale aspect ratios). The processes of dynamic generation of meshes and of simultaneous evaluation of the deformations suffered by the elastomer are fulfilled through subroutines written in Fortan 90 language that dynamically interact with the CFX/ANSYS fluid dynamic software. Since a structural elastic linear model is employed to evaluate elastomer deformations, it is not necessary to use any CAE package for structural analysis. However, an initial proposal for dynamic simulation using hyperelastic models through ANSYS software is also presented in this research. Validation of the results produced with the present methodology (mesh generation, flow simulation in metallic PCPs and simulation of fluid-structure interaction in elastomeric PCPs) is obtained through comparison with experimental results reported by the literature. It is expected that the development and application of such a computational model may provide better details of the dynamics of the flow within metallic and elastomeric PCPs, so that better control systems may be implemented in the artificial elevation area by PCP