Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

The social patterning of health, smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004

The Baltic countries share public health problems typical of most Eastern European transition economies: morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases is higher than in Western European countries. This situation has many similarities compared to a neighbouring country, Finland during the late 1960s. There are reasons to expect that health disadvantage may be increasing among the less advantaged population groups in the Baltic countries. The evidence on social differences in health in the Baltic countries is, however, scattered to studies using different methodologies making comparisons difficult. This study aims to bridge the evidence gap by providing comparable standardized cross-sectional and time trend analyses to the social patterning of variation in health and two key health behaviours i.e. smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004 representing Eastern European transition countries and a stable Western European country. The data consisted of similar cross-sectional postal surveys conducted in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 on adult populations (aged 20 64 years) in Estonia (n=9049), Latvia (n=7685), Lithuania (n=11634) and Finland (n=18821) in connection with the Finbalt Health Monitor project. The main statistical method was logistic regression analysis. Perceived health was found to be worse among both men and women in the Baltic countries than in Finland. Poor health was associated with older age and lower education in all countries studied. Urbanization and marital status were not consistently related to health. The existing educational inequalities in health remained generally stable over time from 1994 to 2004. In the Baltic countries, however, improvement in perceived health was mainly found among the better educated men and women. Daily smoking was associated with young age, lower education and psychological distress in all countries. Among women smoking was also associated with urbanisation in all countries except Estonia. Among Lithuanian women, the educational gradient in smoking was weakest, and the overall prevalence of smoking increased over time. Drinking was generally associated with young age among men and women, and with education among women. Better educated women were more often frequent drinkers and less educated binge drinkers. The exception was that in Latvian men and women both frequent drinking and binge drinking were associated with low education. In conclusion, the Baltic countries are likely to resemble Western European countries rather than other transition societies. While health inequalities did not markedly change, substantial inequalities do remain, and there were indications of favourable developments mainly among the better educated. Pressures towards increasing health inequalities may therefore be visible in the future, which would be in accordance with the results on smoking and drinking in this study.

CRC40142 Defining the plant pathogen risk posed by international travellers

This project will define the plant pathogen incursion risk posed by people returning from overseas and interstate travel. This will be achieved through the development of technically sound sample/survey methodologies. The project will initially focus on cereal rusts. An assessment of the current level of human mediated rust entries into Australia will be determined through the sampling of travellers who have been known to have visited grain production regions overseas.

CRC50089 Grain Insect Ecology

Resistance to phosphine in target pests threatens market access for Australian grain. While the grains industry is now attempting to develop an effective and sustainable strategy to manage this resistance, action is severely limited by significant gaps in our knowledge of the key ecological factors that influence the development of resistance. There is a need to research this information as a foundation for a rational approach to managing phosphine resistance in the Australian grains industry. Research outcomes: The project has provided critical research methodologies and preliminary data to fill the large gaps in our knowledge of the ecology of two key pests, Rhyzopertha dominica and Tribolium castaneum, and how this may drive the development of phosphine resistance. This information will contribute to the groundwork for future research needed to provide a scientific basis for a rational resistance management strategy.

Surface Modification of Biomaterials for Biofilm Control

Amongst various methods to attain sound antibacterial and antifouling properties, surface modification of biomaterials combines efficiency, processing flexibility, and most importantly, the ability to preserve favourable bulk properties, such as mechanical strength and chemical inertness. This chapter will first briefly discuss key parameters by which the biomaterial surface can be described, namely surface chemistry and morphology, and their individual and combined contributions to cell-surface interactions. More emphasis will be placed on surface morphology as the area of much debate. The chapter will then describe a range of available methodologies for surface modification, with plasma-assisted modification as one of the foci.

Supermodels: sorghum and maize provide mutual insight into the genetics of flowering time

Nested association mapping (NAM) offers power to dissect complex, quantitative traits. This study made use of a recently developed sorghum backcross (BC)-NAM population to dissect the genetic architecture of flowering time in sorghum; to compare the QTL identified with other genomic regions identified in previous sorghum and maize flowering time studies and to highlight the implications of our findings for plant breeding. A subset of the sorghum BC-NAM population consisting of over 1,300 individuals from 24 families was evaluated for flowering time across multiple environments. Two QTL analysis methodologies were used to identify 40 QTLs with predominately small, additive effects on flowering time; 24 of these co-located with previously identified QTL for flowering time in sorghum and 16 were novel in sorghum. Significant synteny was also detected with the QTL for flowering time detected in a comparable NAM resource recently developed for maize (Zea mays) by Buckler et al. (Science 325:714-718, 2009). The use of the sorghum BC-NAM population allowed us to catalogue allelic variants at a maximal number of QTL and understand their contribution to the flowering time phenotype and distribution across diverse germplasm. The successful demonstration of the power of the sorghum BC-NAM population is exemplified not only by correspondence of QTL previously identified in sorghum, but also by correspondence of QTL in different taxa, specifically maize in this case. The unification across taxa of the candidate genes influencing complex traits, such as flowering time can further facilitate the detailed dissection of the genetic control and causal genes.

Biology, ecology and conservation of the Mobulidae

The Mobulidae are zooplanktivorous elasmobranchs comprising two recognized species of manta rays (Manta spp.) and nine recognized species of devil rays (Mobula spp.). They are found circumglobally in tropical, subtropical and temperate coastal waters. Although mobulids have been recorded for over 400 years, critical knowledge gaps still compromise the ability to assess the status of these species. On the basis of a review of 263 publications, a comparative synthesis of the biology and ecology of mobulids was conducted to examine their evolution, taxonomy, distribution, population trends, movements and aggregation, reproduction, growth and longevity, feeding, natural mortality and direct and indirect anthropogenic threats. There has been a marked increase in the number of published studies on mobulids since c. 1990, particularly for the genus Manta, although the genus Mobula remains poorly understood. Mobulid species have many common biological characteristics although their ecologies appear to be species-specific, and sometimes region-specific. Movement studies suggest that mobulids are highly mobile and have the potential to rapidly travel large distances. Fishing pressure is the major threat to many mobulid populations, with current levels of exploitation in target fisheries unlikely to be sustainable. Advances in the fields of population genetics, acoustic and satellite tracking, and stable-isotope and fatty-acid analyses will provide new insights into the biology and ecology of these species. Future research should focus on the uncertain taxonomy of mobulid species, the degree of overlap between their large-scale movement and human activities such as fisheries and pollution, and the need for management of inter-jurisdictional fisheries in developing nations to ensure their long-term sustainability. Closer collaboration among researchers worldwide is necessary to ensure standardized sampling and modelling methodologies to underpin global population estimates and status.

Influences on novice drivers' speed selection - a systematic review: Application and limitations of theory and methodology

Background Excessive speed is a primary contributing factor to young novice road trauma, including intentional and unintentional speeds above posted limits or too fast for conditions. The objective of this research was to conduct a systematic review of recent investigations into novice drivers’ speed selection, with particular attention to applications and limitations of theory and methodology. Method Systematic searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature were conducted during September 2014. Abstract reviews identified 71 references potentially meeting selection criteria of investigations since the year 2000 into factors that influence (directly or indirectly) actual speed (i.e., behaviour or performance) of young (age <25 years) and/or novice (recently-licensed) drivers. Results Full paper reviews resulted in 30 final references: 15 focused on intentional speeding and 15 on broader speed selection investigations. Both sets identified a range of individual (e.g., beliefs, personality) and social (e.g., peer, adult) influences, were predominantly theory-driven and applied cross-sectional designs. Intentional speed investigations largely utilised self-reports while other investigations more often included actual driving (simulated or ‘real world’). The latter also identified cognitive workload and external environment influences, as well as targeted interventions. Discussion and implications Applications of theory have shifted the novice speed-related literature beyond a simplistic focus on intentional speeding as human error. The potential to develop a ‘grand theory’ of intentional speeding emerged and to fill gaps to understand broader speed selection influences. This includes need for future investigations of vehicle-related and physical environment-related influences and methodologies that move beyond cross-sectional designs and rely less on self-reports.

Work, aging, and retirement in Australia: Introduction to the special issue

Australia has an aging population and workforce, and policy makers and organizations increasingly encourage older workers to remain on the job longer and even beyond traditional retirement age. After a brief review of important demographic and political developments, we introduce the 8 articles included in this special issue on work, aging, and retirement in Australia. The articles include an overview of the Australian retirement income system, 6 articles reporting quantitative analyses of cross-sectional and longitudinal data provided by large samples of Australian workers and retirees, and a qualitative study which analyzes interviews with human resource managers. Overall, the articles demonstrate that research on work, aging, and retirement in Australia is flourishing, sophisticated, and diverse both in terms of content and methodologies. We close with a brief review of topics and research questions related to work, aging, and retirement that remain to be addressed in the Australian context in future research.

Embedding Indigenous knowledges: An Australian case study of urban and remote teaching practicum

In this chapter we propose that there are certain conditions that enable the agency of pre-service teachers to enact curriculum decision-making within their pedagogical relationships with their supervising teachers as they endeavour to embed Indigenous knowledges (IK) during the teaching practicum. The case study, underpinned by decolonising methodologies, centred upon pre-service teacher preparation at one Australian university, where we investigated how role modelling in urban and remote schools occurred in the learning and teaching relationships between pre-service teachers on practicum and their supervising teachers. This chapter draws from an Office of Learning and Teaching (OLT) sponsored project at one Australian university; a full report on this project has been documented (see McLaughlin, Whatman and Nielsen, 2014). We commence with a discussion of decolonising and critical pedagogical spaces as the conceptual framework for the embedding Indigenous knowledges and perspectives in curricula and pedagogy. Our focus then shifts to a contextual overview of the development of Indigenous Knowledges (IK) in Australian school and university curriculum, providing a standpoint from which to consider the unfolding case study.

Bringing up Children Gran’s Way: Insights from a research project on Indigenous child and youth mental health

Background In 2000, the Mater Child and Youth Mental Health Service Indigenous consultant saw that Indigenous families were isolated from kinship networks following the assimilation policy and clinicians were largely unaware of these socio-cultural histories. Experiences of marginalisation by mainstream society and services were exacerbated by assumptions clinicians made about this population. To enhance Mater’s care the consultant undertook research with Indigenous Elders. The project, “Bringing up Children Gran’s Way”, on which the presenter is the research advisor, was funded by AIATSIS. Aims Increase service quality Improve staff confidence, skills and satisfaction working with this population Promote the wellbeing of Indigenous families Acknowledge the significance of Elders and extended family networks. Methods Over 2006/07 the team used narrative and Indigenous methodologies, (e.g. yarning circles and the use of Indigenous research staff) to arrange and audio-record structured interviews with 19 Aboriginal Elders, on growing up and parenting. The participants were recruited by the Indigenous consultant and gave written consent, following ethical approval and information giving. The team immersed themselves in the material by repeated reading of the transcripts to note recurring themes in Elders’ narratives. Findings The recurring themes included the importance of cultural protocols and extended family; impacts of being ‘under the Act and stories of surviving change; culture, spiritualty and religion; trans-generational impacts; childrearing and the need to reconcile with Elders. Discussion The narratives show Elders resilience in the face of enduring impact of policies of genocide and assimilation. Clinicians need to approach their work with a deeper understanding of the diversity of clients’ social experience and cultural identity. Clinicians need to examine their own cultural assumptions about this population. Conclusion The dissemination of the knowledge and experience of Elders is a matter of social justice and crucial for the well-being of future generations and for improved service access.

Development of Sample Pretreatment and Liquid Chromatographic Techniques for Antioxidative Compounds

In this study, novel methodologies for the determination of antioxidative compounds in herbs and beverages were developed. Antioxidants are compounds that can reduce, delay or inhibit oxidative events. They are a part of the human defense system and are obtained through the diet. Antioxidants are naturally present in several types of foods, e.g. in fruits, beverages, vegetables and herbs. Antioxidants can also be added to foods during manufacturing to suppress lipid oxidation and formation of free radicals under conditions of cooking or storage and to reduce the concentration of free radicals in vivo after food ingestion. There is growing interest in natural antioxidants, and effective compounds have already been identified from antioxidant classes such as carotenoids, essential oils, flavonoids and phenolic acids. The wide variety of sample matrices and analytes presents quite a challenge for the development of analytical techniques. Growing demands have been placed on sample pretreatment. In this study, three novel extraction techniques, namely supercritical fluid extraction (SFE), pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) and dynamic sonication-assisted extraction (DSAE) were studied. SFE was used for the extraction of lycopene from tomato skins and PHWE was used in the extraction of phenolic compounds from sage. DSAE was applied to the extraction of phenolic acids from Lamiaceae herbs. In the development of extraction methodologies, the main parameters of the extraction were studied and the recoveries were compared to those achieved by conventional extraction techniques. In addition, the stability of lycopene was also followed under different storage conditions. For the separation of the antioxidative compounds in the extracts, liquid chromatographic methods (LC) were utilised. Two novel LC techniques, namely ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) and comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography (LCxLC) were studied and compared with conventional high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the separation of antioxidants in beverages and Lamiaceae herbs. In LCxLC, the selection of LC mode, column dimensions and flow rates were studied and optimised to obtain efficient separation of the target compounds. In addition, the separation powers of HPLC, UPLC, HPLCxHPLC and HPLCxUPLC were compared. To exploit the benefits of an integrated system, in which sample preparation and final separation are performed in a closed unit, dynamic sonication-assisted extraction was coupled on-line to a liquid chromatograph via a solid-phase trap. The increased sensitivity was utilised in the extraction of phenolic acids from Lamiaceae herbs. The results were compared to those of achieved by the LCxLC system.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography: Instrumental and Methodological Development

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) offers enhanced separation efficiency, reliability in qualitative and quantitative analysis, capability to detect low quantities, and information on the whole sample and its components. These features are essential in the analysis of complex samples, in which the number of compounds may be large or the analytes of interest are present at trace level. This study involved the development of instrumentation, data analysis programs and methodologies for GC×GC and their application in studies on qualitative and quantitative aspects of GC×GC analysis. Environmental samples were used as model samples. Instrumental development comprised the construction of three versions of a semi-rotating cryogenic modulator in which modulation was based on two-step cryogenic trapping with continuously flowing carbon dioxide as coolant. Two-step trapping was achieved by rotating the nozzle spraying the carbon dioxide with a motor. The fastest rotation and highest modulation frequency were achieved with a permanent magnetic motor, and modulation was most accurate when the motor was controlled with a microcontroller containing a quartz crystal. Heated wire resistors were unnecessary for the desorption step when liquid carbon dioxide was used as coolant. With use of the modulators developed in this study, the narrowest peaks were 75 ms at base. Three data analysis programs were developed allowing basic, comparison and identification operations. Basic operations enabled the visualisation of two-dimensional plots and the determination of retention times, peak heights and volumes. The overlaying feature in the comparison program allowed easy comparison of 2D plots. An automated identification procedure based on mass spectra and retention parameters allowed the qualitative analysis of data obtained by GC×GC and time-of-flight mass spectrometry. In the methodological development, sample preparation (extraction and clean-up) and GC×GC methods were developed for the analysis of atmospheric aerosol and sediment samples. Dynamic sonication assisted extraction was well suited for atmospheric aerosols collected on a filter. A clean-up procedure utilising normal phase liquid chromatography with ultra violet detection worked well in the removal of aliphatic hydrocarbons from a sediment extract. GC×GC with flame ionisation detection or quadrupole mass spectrometry provided good reliability in the qualitative analysis of target analytes. However, GC×GC with time-of-flight mass spectrometry was needed in the analysis of unknowns. The automated identification procedure that was developed was efficient in the analysis of large data files, but manual search and analyst knowledge are invaluable as well. Quantitative analysis was examined in terms of calibration procedures and the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation. In addition to calibration in GC×GC with summed peak areas or peak volumes, simplified area calibration based on normal GC signal can be used to quantify compounds in samples analysed by GC×GC so long as certain qualitative and quantitative prerequisites are met. In a study of the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation, it was shown that quality of the separation of PAHs is not significantly disturbed by the amount of matrix and quantitativeness suffers only slightly in the presence of matrix and when the amount of target compounds is low. The benefits of GC×GC in the analysis of complex samples easily overcome some minor drawbacks of the technique. The developed instrumentation and methodologies performed well for environmental samples, but they could also be applied for other complex samples.

Baseline and greenhouse-gas emissions in extensive livestock enterprises, with a case study of feeding lipid to beef cattle

For accurate calculation of reductions in greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, methodologies under the Australian Government's Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI) depend on a valid assessment of the baseline and project emissions. Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) clearly show that enteric methane emitted from the rumen of cattle and sheep is the major source of GHG emissions from livestock enterprises. Where a historic baseline for a CFI methodology for livestock is required, the use of simulated data for cow-calf enterprises at six sites in southern Australia demonstrated that a 5-year rolling emission average will provide an acceptable trade off in terms of accuracy and stability, but this is a much shorter time period than typically used for LCA. For many CFI livestock methodologies, comparative or pair-wise baselines are potentially more appropriate than historic baselines. A case study of lipid supplementation of beef cows over winter is presented. The case study of a control herd of 250 cows used a comparative baseline derived from simple data on livestock numbers and class of livestock to quantify the emission abatement. Compared with the control herd, lipid supplementation to cows over winter increased livestock productivity, total livestock production and enterprise GHG emissions from 990 t CO2-e to 1022 t CO2-e. Energy embodied in the supplement and extra diesel used in transporting the supplement diminished the enteric-methane abatement benefit of lipid supplementation. Reducing the cow herd to 238 cows maintained the level of livestock production of the control herd and reduced enterprise emissions to 938 t CO2-e, but was not cost effective under the assumptions of this case study.