A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.

Forecasting high-frequency futures returns using online langevin dynamics

Forecasting the returns of assets at high frequency is the key challenge for high-frequency algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper, we propose a jump-diffusion model for asset price movements that models price and its trend and allows a momentum strategy to be developed. Conditional on jump times, we derive closed-form transition densities for this model. We show how this allows us to extract a trend from high-frequency finance data by using a Rao-Blackwellized variable rate particle filter to filter incoming price data. Our results show that even in the presence of transaction costs our algorithm can achieve a Sharpe ratio above 1 when applied across a portfolio of 75 futures contracts at high frequency. © 2011 IEEE.

Collective optimization over average quantities

This paper addresses the design of algorithms for the collective optimization of a cost function defined over average quantities in the presence of limited communication. We argue that several meaningful collective optimization problems can be formulated in this way. As an application of the proposed approach, we propose a novel algorithm that achieves synchronization or balancing in phase models of coupled oscillators under mild connectedness assumptions on the (possibly time-varying and unidirectional) communication graphs. © 2006 IEEE.

Average corotation of line segments near a point and vortex identification

An easy-to-interpret kinematic quantity measuring the average corotation of material line segments near a point is introduced and applied to vortex identification. At a given point, the vector of average corotation of line segments is defined as the average of the instantaneous local rigid-body rotation over "all planar cross sections" passing through the examined point. The vortex-identification method based on average corotation is a one-parameter, region-type local method sensitive to the axial stretching rate as well as to the inner configuration of the velocity gradient tensor. The method is derived from a well-defined interpretation of the local flow kinematics to determine the "plane of swirling" and is also applicable to compressible and variable-density flows. Practical application to direct numerical simulation datasets includes a hairpin vortex of boundary-layer transition, the reconnection process of two Burgers vortices, a flow around an inclined flat plate, and a flow around a revolving insect wing. The results agree well with some popular local methods and perform better in regions of strong shearing. Copyright © 2013 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of dew on biomass and photosystem II activity of cyanobacterial crusts in the Hopq Desert, northwest China

Dew is an important water source for desert organisms in semiarid and arid regions. Both field and laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the possible roles of dew in growth of biomass and photosynthetic activity within cyanobacterial crust. The cyanobacteria, Microcoleus vaginatus Gom. and Scytonema javanicum (Kutz.) Born et Flah., were begun with stock cultures and sequential mass cultivations, and then the field experiment was performed by inoculating the inocula onto shifting sand for forming cyanobacterial crust during late summer and autumn of 2007 in Hopq Desert, northwest China. Measurements of dew amount and Chlorophyll a content were carried out in order to evaluate the changes in crust biomass following dew. Also, we determined the activity of photosystem II(PSII) within the crust in the laboratory by simulating the desiccation/rehydration process due to dew. Results showed that the average daily dew amount as measured by the cloth-plate method (CPM) was 0.154 mm during fifty-three days and that the crust biomass fluctuated from initial inoculation of 4.3 mu g Chlorophyll a cm(-2) sand to 5.8-7.3 mu g Chlorophyll a cm(-2) crust when dew acted as the sole water source, and reached a peak value of approximately 8.2 mu g Chlorophyll a cm(-2) crust owing to rainfalls. It indicated that there was a highly significant correlation between dew amounts and crust moistures (r = 0.897 or r = 0.882, all P < 0.0001), but not a significant correlation between dew and the biomass (r = 0.246 or r = 0.257, all P > 0.05), and thus concluded that dew might only play a relatively limited role in regulating the crust biomass. Correspondingly, we found that rains significantly facilitated biomass increase of the cyanobacterial crust. Results from the simulative experiment upon rehydration showed that approximately 80% of PSII activity could be achieved within about 50 min after rehydration in the dark and at 5 degrees C, and only about 20% of the activity was light-temperature dependent. This might mean that dew was crucial for cyanobacterial crust to rapidly activate photosynthetic activity during desiccation and rehydration despite low temperatures and weak light before dawn. It also showed in this study that the cyanobacterial crusts could receive and retain more dew than sand, which depended on microclimatic characteristics and soil properties of the crusts. It may be necessary for us to fully understanding the influence of dew on regulating the growth and activity of cyanobacterial crust, and to soundly evaluate the crust's potential application in fighting desertification because of the available water due to dew. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of fish stocking on the zooplankton community structure in a shallow lake in China

Changes in the zooplankton community structure in relation to fishery practices in Lake Donghu, Wuhan, China were examined. The number of Protozoa species increased slightly, whereas the number of rotifers and crustaceans decreased from the 1960s to the 1990s. The total annual average densities of zooplankton increased 15-20 times in the 1990s compared with the 1960s. This increase was largely attributed to Protozoa, which contributed 93.4% by number of the total zooplankton density in 1991. Cladoceran densities decreased markedly from 1987. Changes in densities of rotifers and copepods were not evident. Trends in zooplankton biomass were similar to density. Large changes in zooplankton community structure coincided with markedly changes in concentration of chlorophyll a and transparency in Lake Donghu in 1987. The year 1987 seems to be the threshold year when the zooplankton community structure changed considerably. These changes were related to continuously increasing fish stock biomass in the lake. It was suggested that fish stocking and fish biomass should be a better managed for improvement of the quality of the lake's environment.

High average power and short pulse duration continuous wave mode-locked Nd : GdVO4 laser with a semiconductor absorber mirror

Passive mode locking of a solid-state Nd:GdVO4 laser is demonstrated. The laser is mode locked by use of a semiconductor absorber mirror (SAM). A low Nd3+ doped Nd:GdVO4 crystal is used to mitigate the thermal lens effect of the laser crystal at a high pump power. The maximum average output power is up to 6.5 W, and the pulse duration is as short as 6.2 ps. The optic-to-optic conversion efficiency is 32.5% and the repetition rate is about 110 MHz.

High-average-power and high-conversion-efficiency continuous wave mode-locked Nd : YVO4 laser with a semiconductor absorber mirror

A high-power continuous wave (cw) mode-locked Nd:YVO4 solid-state laser was demonstrated by use of a semiconductor absorber mirror (SAM). The maximum average output power was 8.1 W and the optic-to-optic conversion efficiency was about 41 %. At the maximum incident pump power, the pulse width was about 8.6 ps and the repetition rate was 130 MHz. Experimental results indicated that this absorber was suitable for high power mode-locked solid-state lasers. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A differential recursive scheme for suppression of Peak to average power ratio for OFDM

A differential recursive scheme for suppression of Peak to average power ratio (PAPR) for Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal is proposed in this thesis. The pseudo-randomized modulating vector for the subcarrier series is differentially phase-encoded between successive components in frequency domain first, and recursion manipulates several samples of Inverse fast Fourier transformation (IFFT) output in time domain. Theoretical analysis and experimental result exhibit advantage of differential recursive scheme over direct output scheme in PAPR suppression. And the overall block diagram of the scheme is also given.

Realization of GaAs/AlGaAs quantum-cascade lasers with high average optical power

Quasi-continuous-wave operation of GaAs/AlGaAs quantum-cascade lasers with high average optical power is demonstrated. Double X-ray diffraction has been used to investigate the quality of the epitaxial material. The compositional gradients and the interface quality are controlled effectively. The corrected average power of per facet about 17 mW and temperature tuning coefficient of the gain peak about 0.91 nm/K from 83 K to 140 K is achieved in pulse operation. Best value of threshold current density is less than 3.0 kA/cm(2) at 83 K. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An automatic step adjustment method for average power analysis technique used in fiber amplifiers

An automatic step adjustment (ASA) method for average power analysis (APA) technique used in fiber amplifiers is proposed in this paper for the first time. In comparison with the traditional APA technique, the proposed method has suggested two unique merits such as a higher order accuracy and an ASA mechanism, so that it can significantly shorten the computing time and improve the solution accuracy. A test example demonstrates that, by comparing to the APA technique, the proposed method increases the computing speed by more than a hundredfold under the same errors. By computing the model equations of erbium-doped fiber amplifiers, the numerical results show that our method can improve the solution accuracy by over two orders of magnitude at the same amplifying section number. The proposed method has the capacity to rapidly and effectively compute the model equations of fiber Raman amplifiers and semiconductor lasers. (c) 2006 Optical Society of America