A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Futuros: estudo de caso sobre futuros cambiais

Mestrado em Contabilidade

AzoresPhotoID: first results from an open-access photoidentification catalogue

25th Conference of the European Cetacean Society. Long-terms datasets on marine mammals: learning from the past to manage the future, Cadiz, Spain, 21-23 March 2011.

O contributo da publicidade na construção de marcas de luxo

Esta dissertação estuda de que forma a publicidade impressa contribui para a construção de marcas de luxo. Inicialmente é trabalhado o conceito de luxo de forma aprofundada, elencando os seus principais autores e respetivas teorias identificando ainda os principais atributos deste tipo de produtos e serviços. Posteriormente é desenvolvido o conceito de marca, em conjunto com os modelos de construção de marca, focando a análise do modelo proposto por David Aaker com o intuito de compreender melhor quais os principais ativos aos quais uma marca deve estar atenta se quer estar presente neste sector. Numa segunda parte deste estudo desenvolveu-se um método de investigação que engloba a análise de um corpus de 232 anúncios retirados da revista Wallpaper durante o ano de 2012. Trabalhou-se este conjunto de anúncios por um lado através de uma análise extensiva, quantitativa, e por outro lado através de uma análise semiótica, qualitativa. Procurou-se deste modo compreender o que torna único este tipo de marcas no que diz respeito ao contributo do seu discurso publicitário para a sua afirmação e posicionamento no sector do luxo. Através deste estudo foi possível identificar o importante contributo da publicidade para o sucesso, crescimento e manutenção de uma marca de luxo. Foi possível concluir que é determinante para este tipo de marcas manter de forma coerente e contínua a sua identidade ao longo do tempo. A narrativa publicitária em imagem impressa, assume-se como um importante agente comunicacional, possibilitando e potenciando ligações emocionais duradouras a longo prazo com os seus consumidores, consolidando a marca, e reforçando a sua identidade.

Effects of natural mortality on the yield per recruit models

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 22 de Janeiro de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

Increasing source to image distance for AP pelvis imaging: impact on radiation dose and image quality

Aim - A quantative primary study to determine whether increasing source to image distance (SID), with and without the use of automatic exposure control (AEC) for antero-posterior (AP) pelvis imaging, reduces dose whilst still producing an image of diagnostic quality. Methods - Using a computed radiography (CR) system, an anthropomorphic pelvic phantom was positioned for an AP examination using the table bucky. SID was initially set at 110 cm, with tube potential set at a constant 75 kVp, with two outer chambers selected and a fine focal spot of 0.6 mm. SID was then varied from 90 cm to 140 cm with two exposures made at each 5 cm interval, one using the AEC and another with a constant 16 mAs derived from the initial exposure. Effective dose (E) and entrance surface dose (ESD) were calculated for each acquisition. Seven experienced observers blindly graded image quality using a 5-point Likert scale and 2 Alternative Forced Choice software. Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) was calculated for comparison. For each acquisition, femoral head diameter was also measured for magnification indication. Results - Results demonstrated that when increasing SID from 110 cm to 140 cm, both E and ESD reduced by 3.7% and 17.3% respectively when using AEC and 50.13% and 41.79% respectively, when the constant mAs was used. No significant statistical (T-test) difference (p = 0.967) between image quality was detected when increasing SID, with an intra-observer correlation of 0.77 (95% confidence level). SNR reduced slightly for both AEC (38%) and no AEC (36%) with increasing SID. Conclusion - For CR, increasing SID significantly reduces both E and ESD for AP pelvis imaging without adversely affecting image quality.

O corpo na publicidade

Se detivermos um pouco o nosso olhar sobre a publicidade actual, verificamos que o corpo humano, não só da mulher, mas também do homem, é exibido, no seio de certas campanhas, com poses passíveis de suscitar em alguns destinatários sensações de sedução, de atracção e até de aflorar fantasias; ou, pelo contrário, provocar noutros reacções de indignação e mesmo repulsa. Tendo em atenção uma visão diferenciada entre corpo e atributos físicos/corporais que surgem nas imagens publicitárias, o modo como é apresentado e representado, nomeadamente as figuras, os gestos e posturas, cuja significação pode variar consoante o produto/marca aí publicitado e o destinatário do mesmo, este texto pretende demonstrar, com base num corpus de anúncios constituído por diversas campanhas publicitárias, os vários significados do corpo (vestido, seminu ou nu) respectivas poses, gestos, posturas e marcas corporais. É, ainda, objectivo evidenciar de que modo as representações, as práticas e s marcas corporais que emergem no corpus seleccionado manifestam os paradigmas sociais em vigor, isto é, a forma como as personagens inscritas reflectem as tendências físicas e os atributos corporais em uso na sociedade.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Representações corporais e relações de género na publicidade

Desde sempre que a publicidade apresenta ao destinatário imagens positivas da vida e, principalmente, de modelos ideais que funcionam como reflexo do próprio receptor. O objectivo é o de criar a adesão do indivíduo às marcas publicitadas para que, de um ponto de vista comercial, adopte os produtos. Se detivermos um pouco o nosso olhar sobre a publicidade inserida nos media, verificamos que o corpo humano, não só da mulher, mas também do homem, é exibido, no seio de certas campanhas, com poses passíveis de suscitar em alguns destinatários reações de indignação e mesmo repulsa ou, pelo contrário, provocar sensações de sedução, de atração e até de aflorar certas fantasias. As vozes discordantes afirmam que certas campanhas, ao recorrerem às representações de corpos, sobretudo femininos, transgridem, de um modo óbvio, um dos princípios fundamentais da sociedade de direito: o respeito pela dignidade da pessoa humana. Tal transgressão manifesta-se pela híper-exposição da sexualidade, nomeadamente feminina, ou pela representação da mulher em encenações que a colocam numa função de mero objecto. Para outros sectores, o modo como a publicidade utiliza o corpo traduz um movimento social dominante: a ambição por um corpo perfeito, belo e saudável, até porque, afirmam, a publicidade limita-se a ser um espelho da sociedade. Não é propósito desta reflexão defender qualquer dos juízos evocados, mas apenas alinhar argumentos que concorrem para a utilização do corpo na publicidade: a saturação publicitária e a “redundância discursiva”, por um lado, e o acompanhamento de uma tendência social de assunção do corpo, por outro.

Impact of a training course on the quality of malaria diagnosis by microscopy in Angola

Background: In Angola, malaria is an endemic disease having a major impact on the economy. The WHO recommends testing for all suspected malaria cases, to avoid the presumptive treatment of this disease. In malaria endemic regions laboratory technicians must be very comfortable with microscopy, the golden standard for malaria diagnosis, to avoid the incorrect diagnosis. The improper use of medication promotes drug resistance and undesirable side effects. The present study aims to assess the impact of a three-day refresher course on the knowledge of technicians, quality of blood smears preparation and accuracy of microscopy malaria diagnosis, using qPCR as reference method. Methods: This study was implemented in laboratories from three hospitals in different provinces of Angola: Bengo, Benguela and Luanda. In each laboratory samples were collected before and after the training course (slide with thin and thick blood smears, a dried blood spot and a form). The impact of the intervention was evaluated through a written test, the quality of slide preparation and the performance of microscopy. Results: It was found a significant increase on the written test median score, from 52.5% to 65.0%. A total of 973 slides were analysed to evaluate the quality of thick and thin blood smears. Considering all laboratories there was a significant increase in quality of thick and thin blood smears. To determine the performance of microscopy using qPCR as the reference method we used 1,028 samples. Benguela presented the highest values for specificity, 92.9% and 98.8% pre and post-course, respectively and for sensitivity the best pre-course was Benguela (75.9%) and post-course Luanda (75.0%). However, no significant increase in sensitivity and specificity after the training course was registered in any laboratory analysed. Discussion: The findings of this study support the need of continuous refresher training for microscopists and other laboratory staff. The laboratories should have a quality control programme to supervise the diagnosis and also to assess the periodicity of new training. However, other variables needed to be considered to have a correct malaria diagnosis, such as adequate equipment and reagents for staining and visualization, good working conditions, motivated and qualified personnel.

Modelos de apreçamento e cobertura para derivados sobre matérias-primas (Commodities)

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Matemática e as suas aplicações-Ramo Ciências Actuariais

Modelo preditivo da criminalidade – georeferenciação ao concelho de Lisboa

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

Screening the mutagenic activities of coomonly used antiparasite drugs by the Simultest, a simplified Salmonella/microsome plate incorporation assay

The mutagenic activities of 16 anti-parasite drugs were screened by the Simultest in both qualitative (spot test) and quantitative (plate incorporation) assays with a Salmonella typhimurium pool composed by the indicator strains TA97, TA 98, TA100 and TA102. Four anti Chagas' disease drugs (nifurtimox, benznidazole, CL 64,855, and MK 436) and two anti-amebae drugs (metronidazole and tinidazole) gave positive results in qualitative tests and incorporation of rat liver microsomes did not alter the results. Comparative dose response curves of the mutagenic activities of CL 64,855, metronidazole and benznidazole obtained by the simultest and by individual Salmonella indicator strains demonstrated that both approachs have similar sensitivities. The results corroborate the validity of the Simultest, as a simplified, fast and economic version of the Ames test in preliminary screening of potential mutagenic drugs.

A MOSFET-only wideband LNA exploiting thermal noise canceling and gain optimization

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores