Spatial and temporal characterisation of ground deformation recorded by geodetic techniques

A critical point in the analysis of ground displacements time series is the development of data driven methods that allow the different sources that generate the observed displacements to be discerned and characterised. A widely used multivariate statistical technique is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which allows reducing the dimensionality of the data space maintaining most of the variance of the dataset explained. Anyway, PCA does not perform well in finding the solution to the so-called Blind Source Separation (BSS) problem, i.e. in recovering and separating the original sources that generated the observed data. This is mainly due to the assumptions on which PCA relies: it looks for a new Euclidean space where the projected data are uncorrelated. The Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a popular technique adopted to approach this problem. However, the independence condition is not easy to impose, and it is often necessary to introduce some approximations. To work around this problem, I use a variational bayesian ICA (vbICA) method, which models the probability density function (pdf) of each source signal using a mix of Gaussian distributions. This technique allows for more flexibility in the description of the pdf of the sources, giving a more reliable estimate of them. Here I present the application of the vbICA technique to GPS position time series. First, I use vbICA on synthetic data that simulate a seismic cycle (interseismic + coseismic + postseismic + seasonal + noise) and a volcanic source, and I study the ability of the algorithm to recover the original (known) sources of deformation. Secondly, I apply vbICA to different tectonically active scenarios, such as the 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake, the 2012 Emilia (northern Italy) seismic sequence, and the 2006 Guerrero (Mexico) Slow Slip Event (SSE).

Development and optimisation of novel 68 Ga-folates - towards early diagnosis of ovarian cancer

Der Folsäure-basierte Radiotracer Etarfolatide (99mTc-EC 20) hat in der Vergangenheit sehr vielversprechende Ergebnisse im Bereich der frühzeitigen Diagnostik von Ovarialkarzinomen gezeigt. Einzelphotonen-Emissionscomputertomographie (SPECT) erlaubt dabei eine Visualisierung der Krankheit in einem sehr frühen Stadium – ermöglicht wird dies durch Folsäure, welche als Target Vektor dient. Um das erfolgreiche Prinzip der Radiofolate auf die Positronen-Emissionstomographie (PET) zu übertragen, welche eine noch höhere räumliche Auflösung ermöglicht, wurden in den letzten fünf Jahren bereits 18F-folate entwickelt. Deren hepatobiliären Exkretionsmuster, verursacht durch die relativ hohe Lipophilie der Strukturen, entsprachen jedoch nicht den Anforderungen. Eine optimierte Bioverteilung der Tracer in vivo kann durch eine generelle Erhöhung der Polarität erfolgen. Die Kombination aus einem polaren 68Ga-Komplex mit Folsäure als Target Vektor stellte den Fokus dieses Projektes dar. Ziel war die Entwicklung eines Radiofolates mit der Tendenz einer raschen renalen Ausscheidung und verringerter hepatobiliärer Anreicherung. Dazu wurde Folsäure regiospezifisch über ihre y-Säure an verschiedene bifunktionelle Chelatoren (BFCs) gekoppelt. Vier verschiedene Reaktionstypen wurden gewählt und durchgeführt: Cu-katalysierte sowie Cu-freie Click Reaktion, Amindbindung und Thioharnstoff Bildung. Es wurden sechs verschiedene Derivate erhalten und mit 68Ga radiomarkiert.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

Exploring the effectiveness of development research with a monitoring and learning approach

There is a growing demand for better understanding of the link between research, policy and practice in development. This article provides findings from a study that aimed to gain insights into how researchers engage with their non-academic partners. It draws on experiences from the National Centre of Competence in Research North-South programme, a development research network of Swiss, African, Asian and Latin American institutions. Conceptually, this study is concerned with research effectiveness as a means to identify knowledge useful for society. Research can be improved and adapted when monitoring the effects of interactions between researchers and non-academic partners. Therefore, a monitoring and learning approach was chosen. This study reveals researchers' strategies in engaging with non-academic partners and points to framing conditions considered decisive for soccessful interactions. It concludes that reserachrs need to systematically analyse the socio-political context in which they intervene. By providing insights from the ground and reflecting on them in the light of the latest theoretical concepts, this article contributes to the emerging literature founded on practice-based experience.

Fine-tuning of substrate architecture and surface chemistry promotes muscle tissue development

Tissue engineering has been increasingly brought to the scientific spotlight in response to the tremendous demand for regeneration, restoration or substitution of skeletal or cardiac muscle after traumatic injury, tumour ablation or myocardial infarction. In vitro generation of a highly organized and contractile muscle tissue, however, crucially depends on an appropriate design of the cell culture substrate. The present work evaluated the impact of substrate properties, in particular morphology, chemical surface composition and mechanical properties, on muscle cell fate. To this end, aligned and randomly oriented micron (3.3±0.8 μm) or nano (237±98 nm) scaled fibrous poly(ε-caprolactone) non-wovens were processed by electrospinning. A nanometer-thick oxygen functional hydrocarbon coating was deposited by a radio frequency plasma process. C2C12 muscle cells were grown on pure and as-functionalized substrates and analysed for viability, proliferation, spatial orientation, differentiation and contractility. Cell orientation has been shown to depend strongly on substrate architecture, being most pronounced on micron-scaled parallel-oriented fibres. Oxygen functional hydrocarbons, representing stable, non-immunogenic surface groups, were identified as strong triggers for myotube differentiation. Accordingly, the highest myotube density (28±15% of total substrate area), sarcomeric striation and contractility were found on plasma-coated substrates. The current study highlights the manifold material characteristics to be addressed during the substrate design process and provides insight into processes to improve bio-interfaces.

The socio-cultural impact of the introduction of motorbike taxis in the rural community of Tombel, South West region, Cameroon

“The socio-cultural impact of the introduction of motorbike taxis in the rural community of Tombel, South West region, Cameroon” seeks to bring out the impact of commercial motorbike taxis on the lifestyle of the Bakossi. The principal objective of this research is to show how the introduction of motorbike taxis has modified the lifestyle of the Tombel population. This anthropological research defines the profile of a motorbike taxi rider, his role in society, the perception of the population towards this activity and the impact of this activity on the lifestyle of the rural population of Tombel. This study reveals that motorbike taxi riders are essentially made up of youths from all works of life who earn a living by riding a motorbike taxi on a daily bases for commercial purposes. The revenue earn here goes a long way to sustain the livelihood of the rider and his entourage, becoming an ascension tool into the social ladder. The activity is very dangerous not only for the riders buts also for the passengers because of the risks involved in riding for most of the riders do not have the basic knowledge of the road code. This research also reveals that motorbike taxi has become the preferred means of public transport of most inhabitants of Tombel to the point of monopolising certain destinations. The population of Tombel perceives this activity as an instrument of change that has brought development and progress. But this activity also constitutes a social ill because of the prevalent sexual promiscuity encouraged by the riders. This activity has also gotten a cultural impact on the society, changing perceptions and being involve in rituals. Motorbike taxis have become a force to reckon with in the organisation of the community. They are a “response from below” to the transport crises in Cameroon.

Spatial Learning and Stress Response of Male Rats Prenatally Exposed to Dexamethasone

Dexamethasone is routinely administered to women at risk for a preterm birth in order to enhance fetal lung development and reduce uterine contractions. Research has demonstrated possible behavioral abnormalities in adulthood as a result of dexamethasone treatment. Using nonlinear mixed effects modeling, this study found thatprenatal dexamethasone treatment impaired spatial learning and memory of adult male Sprague-Dawley rats. Prenatal dexamethasone treatment also led to more anxiety related behaviors on Elevated Plus Maze testing 1.5 hours after a stress challenge. Because theassumptions underlying the independent samples t-test were violated, the randomization test was used to compare groups on the Elevated Plus Maze.

Romany Families in Romania: Intelligence and Personality of Children Cross-cultural and Specific Problems of Development

Psychogenetic research has emphasised the influence of social factors on a child's intellectual development. In her work, Ms. Dumitrascu examines two such factors; family size and order of birth. However, since these formal parameters tend to be unstable, other more informal factors should be taken into consideration. Of these, perhaps the most interesting is the "style" of parental education, which Ms. Dumitrascu regards as an expression of national traditions at the family level. This educational style is culture dependent. Only a comparative, cross-cultural study can reveal the real mechanism through which educational style influences the development of a child's intellect and personality. Ms. Dumitrascu conducted an experimental cross-cultural study aimed at examining the effects of the family environment on a child's intellectual development. Three distinct populations were involved in her investigation, each having quite a distinct status in their geographical area; Romanians, Romanies (Gypsies) from Romania, and Russians from the Republic of Moldova. She presented her research in the form of a series of articles written in English totalling 85 pages, and also on disc. A significant difference was revealed between the intelligence of a child living in a large family, and that of a child with no brothers or sisters. In the case of Romany children, the gap is remarkably large. Ms. Dumitrascu concludes that the simultaneous action of several negative factors (low socio-economic status, large family size, socio-cultural isolation of a population) may delay child development. Subjected to such a precarious environment, Romany children do not seek self-realisation, but rather struggle to survive the hardship. Most of them remain out of civilisation. Unfortunately, adult Romanies seldom express any concern regarding their children's successful social integration. The school as main socialisation tool has no value for most parents. Ms. Dumitrascu argues the need for a major effort aimed at helping Romany's social integration. She hopes this project will be of some help for psychologists, social workers, teachers, and all those who are interested in the integration into society of minority groups.

Lake Ladoga: Water Resources for the Sustainable Development of North-Western Russia and Finland

The aim of this project was to evaluate the present state and possible changes of water resources in Lake Ladoga and its drainage basin for the purposes of the sustainable development of North-Western Russia and Finland. The group assessed the state of the water resources in quantitative and qualitative terms, taking the system of sustainable development indicators suggested by the International Commission on Sustainable Development as a basis for assessment. These include pressure indicators (annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, domestic consumption of water per capita), state indicators (ground water reserves, concentration of faecalcoliform in fresh water, biochemical oxygen demand), and response indicators (waste-water treatment coverage, density of hydrological networks). The group proposed the following additional indicators and indices for the complex evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative state of the region's water resources: * Pressure indicators (external load, coefficient of anthropogenic pressure) * State indicators and indices (concentrations of chemicals in water, concentrations of chemicals in sediments, index of water pollution, critical load, critical limit, internal load, load/critical load, concentration/critical limit, internal load/external load, trophic state, biotic indicators and indices) * Response indicators (discharges of pure water, polluted water, partly treated water and the ratio between these, trans-boundary fluxes of pollutants, state expenditure on environmental protection, human life span) The assessment considered both temporal and spatial aspects and produced a regional classification of the area according to the index of water pollution. Mathematical models were developed to describe and forecast the processes under way in the lake and can be used to estimate the influence of climatic changes on the hydrological regime, as well as the influence of anthropogenic load on the trophic state of Lake Ladoga and to assess the consequences of accidental discharges of polluting admixtures of different kinds into the lake. The results of this mathematical modelling may be of use to decision-makers responsible for the management of water resources.

On the postnatal development of the striate cortex (V1) in the tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri)

Histological serial sections, three-dimensional reconstructions and morphometry served to study the postnatal development of V1 in tree shrews. The main objectives were to evaluate the expansion of V1, the implications of its growth on the occipital cortex and, vice versa, the effects of the expanding neocortex on the topography of V1. The future V1 was identified on postnatal day 1 by its granular layer IV, covering the superior surface of the occipital cortices including the poles. A subdivision of layer IV, distinctive for the binocular part, was evident in the central region. V1 expanded continuously with age into all directions succeeded by the maturation of layering. The monocular part was recognized from day 15 onward, after the binocular part had reached its medial border. In reference to the retinotopic map of V1, regions emerged in a coherent temporo-spatial sequence delineating the retinal topography in a central to peripheral gradient beginning with the visual streak representation. The growth of V1 was greatest until tree shrews open their eyes, culminated during adolescence, and completed after a subsequent decrease in the young adult. Simultaneous expansion of the neocortex induced a shifting of V1. Translation and elongation of V1 entailed that the occipital cortex covered the superior colliculi along with a downward rotation of the poles. The enlargement of the occipital part of the hemispheres was in addition associated with the formation of a small occipital horn in the lateral ventricles, indicating an incipient 'true' occipital lobe harbouring mainly cortices involved in visual functions.

Computational Techniques for Spatial Logistic Regression with Large Datasets

In epidemiological work, outcomes are frequently non-normal, sample sizes may be large, and effects are often small. To relate health outcomes to geographic risk factors, fast and powerful methods for fitting spatial models, particularly for non-normal data, are required. We focus on binary outcomes, with the risk surface a smooth function of space. We compare penalized likelihood models, including the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach, and Bayesian models based on fit, speed, and ease of implementation. A Bayesian model using a spectral basis representation of the spatial surface provides the best tradeoff of sensitivity and specificity in simulations, detecting real spatial features while limiting overfitting and being more efficient computationally than other Bayesian approaches. One of the contributions of this work is further development of this underused representation. The spectral basis model outperforms the penalized likelihood methods, which are prone to overfitting, but is slower to fit and not as easily implemented. Conclusions based on a real dataset of cancer cases in Taiwan are similar albeit less conclusive with respect to comparing the approaches. The success of the spectral basis with binary data and similar results with count data suggest that it may be generally useful in spatial models and more complicated hierarchical models.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.