Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Thermal decomposition of doped calcium hydroxide for chemical energy storage

Thermal decomposition of Ca(OH)2 with and without additives has been experimentally investigated for its application as a thermochemical energy storage system. The homogeneous reaction model gives a satisfactory fit for the kinetic data on pure and Ni(OH)2---, Zn(OH)2--- and Al(OH)3---doped Ca(OH)2 and the order of reaction is 0.76 in all cases except for the Al(OH)3-doped sample for which the decomposition is zero order. These additives are shown not only to enhance the reaction rate but also to reduce the decomposition temperature significantly. Some models for solid decomposition reactions, and possible mechanisms in the decomposition of solids containing additives, are also discussed.

Dynamics of dense sheared granular flows. Part 1. Structure and diffusion

Shear flows of inelastic spheres in three dimensions in the Volume fraction range 0.4-0.64 are analysed using event-driven simulations.Particle interactions are considered to be due to instantaneous binary collisions, and the collision model has a normal coefficient of restitution e(n) (negative of the ratio of the post- and pre-collisional relative velocities of the particles along the line joining the centres) and a tangential coefficient of restitution e(t) (negative of the ratio of post- and pre-collisional velocities perpendicular to the line Joining the centres). Here, we have considered both e(t) = +1 and e(t) = e(n) (rough particles) and e(t) =-1 (smooth particles), and the normal coefficient of restitution e(n) was varied in the range 0.6-0.98. Care was taken to avoid inelastic collapse and ensure there are no particle overlaps during the simulation. First, we studied the ordering in the system by examining the icosahedral order parameter Q(6) in three dimensions and the planar order parameter q(6) in the plane perpendicular to the gradient direction. It was found that for shear flows of sufficiently large size, the system Continues to be in the random state, with Q(6) and q(6) close to 0, even for volume fractions between phi = 0.5 and phi = 0.6; in contrast, for a system of elastic particles in the absence of shear, the system orders (crystallizes) at phi = 0.49. This indicates that the shear flow prevents ordering in a system of sufficiently large size. In a shear flow of inelastic particles, the strain rate and the temperature are related through the energy balance equation, and all time scales can be non-dimensionalized by the inverse of the strain rate. Therefore, the dynamics of the system are determined only by the volume fraction and the coefficients of restitution. The variation of the collision frequency with volume fraction and coefficient of estitution was examined. It was found, by plotting the inverse of the collision frequency as a function of volume fraction, that the collision frequency at constant strain rate diverges at a volume fraction phi(ad) (volume fraction for arrested dynamics) which is lower than the random close-packing Volume fraction 0.64 in the absence of shear. The volume fraction phi(ad) decreases as the coefficient of restitution is decreased from e(n) = 1; phi(ad) has a minimum of about 0.585 for coefficient of restitution e(n) in the range 0.6-0.8 for rough particles and is slightly larger for smooth particles. It is found that the dissipation rate and all components of the stress diverge proportional to the collision frequency in the close-packing limit. The qualitative behaviour of the increase in the stress and dissipation rate are well Captured by results derived from kinetic theory, but the quantitative agreement is lacking even if the collision frequency obtained from simulations is used to calculate the pair correlation function used In the theory.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

A dynamic programming model for optimising feeding and slaughter decisions regarding fattening pigs

Costs of purchasing new piglets and of feeding them until slaughter are the main variable expenditures in pig fattening. They both depend on slaughter intensity, the nature of feeding patterns and the technological constraints of pig fattening, such as genotype. Therefore, it is of interest to examine the effect of production technology and changes in input and output prices on feeding and slaughter decisions. This study examines the problem by using a dynamic programming model that links genetic characteristics of a pig to feeding decisions and the timing of slaughter and takes into account how these jointly affect the quality-adjusted value of a carcass. The model simulates the growth mechanism of a pig under optional feeding and slaughter patterns and then solves the optimal feeding and slaughter decisions recursively. The state of nature and the genotype of a pig are known in the analysis. The main contribution of this study is the dynamic approach that explicitly takes into account carcass quality while simultaneously optimising feeding and slaughter decisions. The method maximises the internal rate of return to the capacity unit. Hence, the results can have vital impact on competitiveness of pig production, which is known to be quite capital-intensive. The results suggest that producer can significantly benefit from improvements in the pig's genotype, because they improve efficiency of pig production. The annual benefits from obtaining pigs of improved genotype can be more than €20 per capacity unit. The annual net benefits of animal breeding to pig farms can also be considerable. Animals of improved genotype can reach optimal slaughter maturity quicker and produce leaner meat than animals of poor genotype. In order to fully utilise the benefits of animal breeding, the producer must adjust feeding and slaughter patterns on the basis of genotype. The results suggest that the producer can benefit from flexible feeding technology. The flexible feeding technology segregates pigs into groups according to their weight, carcass leanness, genotype and sex and thereafter optimises feeding and slaughter decisions separately for these groups. Typically, such a technology provides incentives to feed piglets with protein-rich feed such that the genetic potential to produce leaner meat is fully utilised. When the pig approaches slaughter maturity, the share of protein-rich feed in the diet gradually decreases and the amount of energy-rich feed increases. Generally, the optimal slaughter weight is within the weight range that pays the highest price per kilogram of pig meat. The optimal feeding pattern and the optimal timing of slaughter depend on price ratios. Particularly, an increase in the price of pig meat provides incentives to increase the growth rates up to the pig's biological maximum by increasing the amount of energy in the feed. Price changes and changes in slaughter premium can also have large income effects. Key words: barley, carcass composition, dynamic programming, feeding, genotypes, lean, pig fattening, precision agriculture, productivity, slaughter weight, soybeans

Coherent potential approximation, averaged T-matrix approximation and Lloyd's model

It is shown how the single-site coherent potential approximation and the averaged T-matrix approximation become exact in the calculation of the averaged single-particle Green function of the electron in the Anderson model when the site energy is distributed randomly with lorentzian distribution. Using these approximations, Lloyd's exact result is reproduced.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5

Aims We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. Methods We implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-redshift galaxies. Results Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae alone; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak-lensing field-to-field variance between 1 deg2-MegaCam pointings is 5-15% higher than predicted from N-body simulations. We find no bias in the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model, and marginalising over cosmological parameters. Assuming a systematic underestimation of the lensing signal, the normalisation increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10 < 1 + w < 0.06 at 68% confidence ( -0.18 < 1 + w < 0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Our results are therefore consistent with the cosmological constant . Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15.

Total photoproduction cross section at very high energy

In this paper we apply to the photoproduction total cross section a model we have proposed for purely hadronic processes and which is based on QCD mini-jets and soft gluon re-summation. We compare the predictions of our model with the HERA data as well as with other models. For cosmic rays, our model predicts substantially higher cross sections at TeV energies than models based on factorization, but lower than models based on mini-jets alone, without soft gluons. We discuss the origin of this difference.

Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

A design approach to innovation in the Australian energy industry

Electricity businesses across Australia are facing many market disruptions, such as the increasing demand from the rapid uptake of domestic air conditioners and the contrasting problematic generation from solar power connections to the grid. In this context, the opportunity to proactively leverage forthcoming technological advances in battery storage and electric vehicles to address the steeply rising cost of electricity supply has emerged. This research explores a design approach to support a business to navigate such disruptions in the current market.This study examines a design-led approach to innovation conducted over a ten month action research study within a large, risk-averse firm in the Australian energy sector. This article presents results describing a current foresight gap within the business; the response of the business to using design-led innovation to address this issue; and the tools, approaches and processes used. The business responses indicate their perception of the value of qualitative customer engagement as a path to addressing, and potentially benefiting from, disruptive innovation. It is anticipated that these results will further business model development within the company, and assist in leveraging disruptive innovations for this industry participant, thus limiting future increases in the cost of electricity supply for customers in Australia.

On Random Planar Curves and Their Scaling Limits

Planar curves arise naturally as interfaces between two regions of the plane. An important part of statistical physics is the study of lattice models. This thesis is about the interfaces of 2D lattice models. The scaling limit is an infinite system limit which is taken by letting the lattice mesh decrease to zero. At criticality, the scaling limit of an interface is one of the SLE curves (Schramm-Loewner evolution), introduced by Oded Schramm. This family of random curves is parametrized by a real variable, which determines the universality class of the model. The first and the second paper of this thesis study properties of SLEs. They contain two different methods to study the whole SLE curve, which is, in fact, the most interesting object from the statistical physics point of view. These methods are applied to study two symmetries of SLE: reversibility and duality. The first paper uses an algebraic method and a representation of the Virasoro algebra to find common martingales to different processes, and that way, to confirm the symmetries for polynomial expected values of natural SLE data. In the second paper, a recursion is obtained for the same kind of expected values. The recursion is based on stationarity of the law of the whole SLE curve under a SLE induced flow. The third paper deals with one of the most central questions of the field and provides a framework of estimates for describing 2D scaling limits by SLE curves. In particular, it is shown that a weak estimate on the probability of an annulus crossing implies that a random curve arising from a statistical physics model will have scaling limits and those will be well-described by Loewner evolutions with random driving forces.

Sustainable building envelope design by considering energy cost and occupant satisfaction

The built environment is a major contributor to the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, with a considerable amount of energy being consumed in buildings due to heating, ventilation and air-conditioning, space illumination, use of electrical appliances, etc., to facilitate various anthropogenic activities. The development of sustainable buildings seeks to ameliorate this situation mainly by reducing energy consumption. Sustainable building design, however, is a complicated process involving a large number of design variables, each with a range of feasible values. There are also multiple, often conflicting, objectives involved such as the life cycle costs and occupant satisfaction. One approach to dealing with this is through the use of optimization models. In this paper, a new multi-objective optimization model is developed for sustainable building design by considering the design objectives of cost and energy consumption minimization and occupant comfort level maximization. In a case study demonstration, it is shown that the model can derive a set of suitable design solutions in terms of life cycle cost, energy consumption and indoor environmental quality so as to help the client and design team gain a better understanding of the design space and trade-off patterns between different design objectives. The model can very useful in the conceptual design stages to determine appropriate operational settings to achieve the optimal building performance in terms of minimizing energy consumption and maximizing occupant comfort level.

Characterization of maize growing environments in eastern and southern Africa using the APSIM model

Maize grown in eastern and southern Africa experiences random occurrences of drought. This uncertainty creates difficulty in developing superior varieties and their agronomy. Characterisation of drought types and their frequencies could help in better defining selection environments for improving resistance to drought. We used the well tested APSIM maize model to characterise major drought stress patterns and their frequencies across six countries of the region including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The database thus generated covered 35 sites, 17 to 86 years of daily climate records, 3 varieties and 3 planting densities from a total of 11,174 simulations. The analysis identified four major drought environment types including those characterised by low-stress which occurred in 42% of the years, mid-season drought occurring in 15% of the years, late-terminal stress which occurred in 22% of the years and early-terminal drought occurring in 21% of the years. These frequencies varied in relation to sites, genotypes and management. The simulations showed that early terminal stress could result in a yield reduction of 70% compared with low-stress environmental types. The study presents the importance of environmental characterization in contributing to maize improvement in eastern and southern Africa.