891 resultados para Process Modelling, Process Management, Risk Modelling


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Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

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Kuudenarvoista kromia käytetään natriumkloraatin valmistuksessa prosessin tuotantotehokkuuden ja turvallisuuden parantamiseksi. Kromia kuitenkin poistuu prosessista muutamaa reittiä pitkin. Koska kuuudenarvoisella kromilla on syöpää aiheuttavia, mutageenisiä sekä lisääntymiselle myrkyllisiä ominaisuuksia, olisi tärkeää ymmärtää, miten kromi kulkeutuu prosessin eri osiin, ja kuinka paljon sitä poistuu prosessista. Tämä on tärkeää, jotta osataan hallita kromin käytöstä aiheutuvat riskit, sekä toisaalta myös tehostaa kromin käyttöä prosessissa. Työn tarkoituksena oli tuottaa tietoa kromin käytöstä natriumkloraattiprosessissa. Työssä tutkittiin kromitasetta prosessin keskeisimmissä yksikköoperaatioissa. Myös kromin saostumista katodien pinnalle arvioitiin määrällisesti. Eri prosessinäytteistä tutkittiin lisäksi kromin hapetusasteita. Edellä mainittuja tutkimuskohteita varten määritettiin prosessinäytteiden kromipitoisuus. Eri prosessioperaatioille suoritettiin lisäksi taselaskelmat. Työn tuloksena esitettiin kromitase sekä yksikköoperaatioille että koko prosessille. Erinäisten epätarkkuustekijöiden vuoksi tasetta ei kuitenkaan pystytty määrittämään halutulla tarkkuudella, ja siksi työssä esitettyä tasetta voidaan pitää vain suuntaa antavana laskelmana. Katodien pinnalle saostunutta kromin määrää pidettiin kuitenkin oikean suuruusluokan tuloksena. Prosessinäytteiden hapetusasteita ei voitu arvioida, sillä saadut kokonaiskromitulokset eivät olleet täysin luotettavia. Huolimatta tulosten epätarkkuudesta, työ tuotti tärkeää tietoa prosessin toiminnasta kromin suhteen. Työtä voidaan hyödyntää jatkossa monin tavoin prosessin kromitaseen seurannassa.

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The target of this thesis is to evaluate a bid, project and resource management IT tool for service delivery process via proof-of-concept (POC) project to assess, if the tested software is an appropriate tool for the Case Company’s business requirements. Literature suggests that IT projects implementation is still a grey area in scientific research. Also, IT projects have a notably high rate of failure, one significant reason for this being insufficient planning. To tackle this risk, the Case Company decided to perform a POC project, which involved a hands-on testing period of the assessed system. End users from the business side feel that current, highly tailored project management tool is inflexible, difficult to use, and sets unnecessary limitations for the business. Semi-structured interviews and a survey form are used to collect information about current business practices and business requirements related to the IT tool. For the POC project, a project group involving members from each of the Case Company’s four business divisions was established to perform the hands-on testing. Based on data acquired during the interviews and the hands-on testing period, a target state was defined and a gap analysis was carried out by comparing the features provided by the current tool and the tested tool to the target state, which are, together with the current state description, the most important result of the thesis.

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The aim of this thesis is to search how to match the demand and supply effectively in industrial and project-oriented business environment. The demand-supply balancing process is searched through three different phases: the demand planning and forecasting, synchronization of demand and supply and measurement of the results. The thesis contains a single case study that has been implemented in a company called Outotec. In the case study the demand is planned and forecasted with qualitative (judgmental) forecasting method. The quantitative forecasting methods are searched further to support the demand forecast and long term planning. The sales and operations planning process is used in the synchronization of the demand and supply. The demand forecast is applied in the management of a supply chain of critical unit of elemental analyzer. Different meters on operational and strategic level are proposed for the measurement of performance.

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Human activity recognition in everyday environments is a critical, but challenging task in Ambient Intelligence applications to achieve proper Ambient Assisted Living, and key challenges still remain to be dealt with to realize robust methods. One of the major limitations of the Ambient Intelligence systems today is the lack of semantic models of those activities on the environment, so that the system can recognize the speci c activity being performed by the user(s) and act accordingly. In this context, this thesis addresses the general problem of knowledge representation in Smart Spaces. The main objective is to develop knowledge-based models, equipped with semantics to learn, infer and monitor human behaviours in Smart Spaces. Moreover, it is easy to recognize that some aspects of this problem have a high degree of uncertainty, and therefore, the developed models must be equipped with mechanisms to manage this type of information. A fuzzy ontology and a semantic hybrid system are presented to allow modelling and recognition of a set of complex real-life scenarios where vagueness and uncertainty are inherent to the human nature of the users that perform it. The handling of uncertain, incomplete and vague data (i.e., missing sensor readings and activity execution variations, since human behaviour is non-deterministic) is approached for the rst time through a fuzzy ontology validated on real-time settings within a hybrid data-driven and knowledgebased architecture. The semantics of activities, sub-activities and real-time object interaction are taken into consideration. The proposed framework consists of two main modules: the low-level sub-activity recognizer and the high-level activity recognizer. The rst module detects sub-activities (i.e., actions or basic activities) that take input data directly from a depth sensor (Kinect). The main contribution of this thesis tackles the second component of the hybrid system, which lays on top of the previous one, in a superior level of abstraction, and acquires the input data from the rst module's output, and executes ontological inference to provide users, activities and their in uence in the environment, with semantics. This component is thus knowledge-based, and a fuzzy ontology was designed to model the high-level activities. Since activity recognition requires context-awareness and the ability to discriminate among activities in di erent environments, the semantic framework allows for modelling common-sense knowledge in the form of a rule-based system that supports expressions close to natural language in the form of fuzzy linguistic labels. The framework advantages have been evaluated with a challenging and new public dataset, CAD-120, achieving an accuracy of 90.1% and 91.1% respectively for low and high-level activities. This entails an improvement over both, entirely data-driven approaches, and merely ontology-based approaches. As an added value, for the system to be su ciently simple and exible to be managed by non-expert users, and thus, facilitate the transfer of research to industry, a development framework composed by a programming toolbox, a hybrid crisp and fuzzy architecture, and graphical models to represent and con gure human behaviour in Smart Spaces, were developed in order to provide the framework with more usability in the nal application. As a result, human behaviour recognition can help assisting people with special needs such as in healthcare, independent elderly living, in remote rehabilitation monitoring, industrial process guideline control, and many other cases. This thesis shows use cases in these areas.

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Rough turning is an important form of manufacturing cylinder-symmetric parts. Thus far, increasing the level of automation in rough turning has included process monitoring methods or adaptive turning control methods that aim to keep the process conditions constant. However, in order to improve process safety, quality and efficiency, an adaptive turning control should be transformed into an intelligent machining system optimizing cutting values to match process conditions or to actively seek to improve process conditions. In this study, primary and secondary chatter and chip formation are studied to understand how to measure the effect of these phenomena to the process conditions and how to avoid undesired cutting conditions. The concept of cutting state is used to address the combination of these phenomena and the current use of the power capacity of the lathe. The measures to the phenomena are not developed based on physical measures, but instead, the severity of the measures is modelled against expert opinion. Based on the concept of cutting state, an expert system style fuzzy control system capable of optimizing the cutting process was created. Important aspects of the system include the capability to adapt to several cutting phenomena appearing at once, even if the said phenomena would potentially require conflicting control action.

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Sales and operations research publications have increased significantly in the last decades. The concept of sales and operations planning (S&OP) has gained increased recognition and has been put forward as the area within Supply Chain Management (SCM). Development of S&OP is based on the need for determining future actions, both for sales and operations, since off-shoring, outsourcing, complex supply chains and extended lead times make challenges for responding to changes in the marketplace when they occur. Order intake of the case company has grown rapidly during the last years. Along with the growth, new challenges considering data management and information flow have arisen due to increasing customer orders. To manage these challenges, case company has implemented S&OP process, though initial process is in early stage and due to this, the process is not managing the increased customer orders adequately. Thesis objective is to explore extensively the S&OP process content of the case company and give further recommendations. Objectives are categorized into six different groups, to clarify the purpose of this thesis. Qualitative research methods used are active participant observation, qualitative interviews, enquiry, education, and a workshop. It is notable that demand planning was felt as cumbersome, so it is typically the biggest challenge in S&OP process. More proactive the sales forecasting can be, more expanded the time horizon of operational planning will turn out. S&OP process is 60 percent change management, 30 percent process development and 10 percent technology. The change management and continuous improvement can sometimes be arduous and set as secondary. It is important that different people are required to improve the process and the process is constantly evaluated. As well as, process governance is substantially in a central role and it has to be managed consciously. Generally, S&OP process was seen important and all the stakeholders were committed to the process. Particular sections were experienced more important than others, depending on the stakeholders’ point of views. Recommendations to objective groups are evaluated by the achievable benefit and resource requirement. The urgent and easily implemented improvement recommendations should be executed firstly. Next steps are to develop more coherent process structure and refine cost awareness. Afterwards demand planning, supply planning, and reporting should be developed more profoundly. For last, information technology system should be implemented to support the process phases.

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The purpose of this thesis was to study change management and find out how the theory applies to practise with the help of studying an organizational change process. The goal was to investigate the different ways of the change management and how those could be utilized in practise. The purpose was also to see what kind of tools and information packages for change management the company involved has developed and taken in to use and check if these could have been utilized in the change process studied in this thesis. This thesis was established by studying the theory of change management and interviewing the people involved in the organizational change and the stakeholders. The questions were formed in line with the change management theory. The main theory used was John P. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change. The study revealed valuable details about change processes in real life and concrete improvement ideas were recognized from the interviews. Overall the people were quite happy with the outcome of the change process. There were also some failures identified in this change process. Most probably those can be avoided in the future if people planning the change are familiar with the company’s new information packages and tools for change management. Change management is a complex area that is still today quite often forgotten by companies. Effective change management can give a huge competitive advantage for a company. Acknowledging that change process is always complex and not easy is already a good step forward in handling change processes. All changes need change management and understanding the way people react on change. A good and efficient change management is the key to make the change process smooth and easier for the people involved.

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The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

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The aim of this study was to contribute to the current knowledge-based theory by focusing on a research gap that exists in the empirically proven determination of the simultaneous but differentiable effects of intellectual capital (IC) assets and knowledge management (KM) practices on organisational performance (OP). The analysis was built on the past research and theoreticised interactions between the latent constructs specified using the survey-based items that were measured from a sample of Finnish companies for IC and KM and the dependent construct for OP determined using information available from financial databases. Two widely used and commonly recommended measures in the literature on management science, i.e. the return on total assets (ROA) and the return on equity (ROE), were calculated for OP. Thus the investigation of the relationship between IC and KM impacting OP in relation to the hypotheses founded was possible to conduct using objectively derived performance indicators. Using financial OP measures also strengthened the dynamic features of data needed in analysing simultaneous and causal dependences between the modelled constructs specified using structural path models. The estimates were obtained for the parameters of structural path models using a partial least squares-based regression estimator. Results showed that the path dependencies between IC and OP or KM and OP were always insignificant when analysed separate to any other interactions or indirect effects caused by simultaneous modelling and regardless of the OP measure used that was either ROA or ROE. The dependency between the constructs for KM and IC appeared to be very strong and was always significant when modelled simultaneously with other possible interactions between the constructs and using either ROA or ROE to define OP. This study, however, did not find statistically unambiguous evidence for proving the hypothesised causal mediation effects suggesting, for instance, that the effects of KM practices on OP are mediated by the IC assets. Due to the fact that some indication about the fluctuations of causal effects was assessed, it was concluded that further studies are needed for verifying the fundamental and likely hidden causal effects between the constructs of interest. Therefore, it was also recommended that complementary modelling and data processing measures be conducted for elucidating whether the mediation effects occur between IC, KM and OP, the verification of which requires further investigations of measured items and can be build on the findings of this study.

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Increasing amount of renewable energy source based electricity production has set high load control requirements for power grid balance markets. The essential grid balance between electricity consumption and generation is currently hard to achieve economically with new-generation solutions. Therefore conventional combustion power generation will be examined in this thesis as a solution to the foregoing issue. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology is known to have sufficient scale to acts as a large grid balancing unit. Although the load change rate of the CFB unit is known to be moderately high, supplementary repowering solution will be evaluated in this thesis for load change maximization. The repowering heat duty is delivered to the CFB feed water preheating section by smaller gas turbine (GT) unit. Consequently, steam extraction preheating may be decreased and large amount of the gas turbine exhaust heat may be utilized in the CFB process to reach maximum plant electrical efficiency. Earlier study of the repowering has focused on the efficiency improvements and retrofitting to maximize plant electrical output. This study however presents the CFB load change improvement possibilities achieved with supplementary GT heat. The repowering study is prefaced with literature and theory review for both of the processes to maximize accuracy of the research. Both dynamic and steady-state simulations accomplished with APROS simulation tool will be used to evaluate repowering effects to the CFB unit operation. Eventually, a conceptual level analysis is completed to compare repowered plant performance to the state-of-the-art CFB performance. Based on the performed simulations, considerably good improvements to the CFB process parameters are achieved with repowering. Consequently, the results show possibilities to higher ramp rate values achieved with repowered CFB technology. This enables better plant suitability to the grid balance markets.

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Le caribou forestier est une espèce menacée au Canada, la principale hypothèse au déclin des populations étant l’intensification de la prédation provoquée par les perturbations anthropiques du paysage. Afin de faire face à cette situation, il est nécessaire d’étudier et comprendre l’impact de l’environnement sur les interactions prédateur-proies entre le caribou et le loup, ainsi qu’avec l’orignal, qui est sa principale proie alternative. Pour cela, cette thèse présente la conception d’un modèle centré sur l’individu des déplacements de ces trois espèces en fonction de leur environnement, dont résulteront les interactions prédateur-proies. Afin de permettre l’application de ce modèle sur de longues périodes, et donc pour un environnement changeant, une méthodologie a été développée, qui s’articule atour de deux aspects principaux. Tout d’abord, la notion de niveaux d’émergence est introduite, permettant d’ordonner les comportements observables du système selon leurs interdépendances, afin de choisir comme trait du modèle un com- portement correspondant au domaine d’applicabilité visé. Ordonner les comportements selon leurs niveaux d’émergence permet également d’identifier la redondance entre les patrons, qui peut être à l’origine d’un phénomène de sur-apprentissage lorsqu’ils sont utilisés lors de la calibration. Dans un second temps, un nouveau protocole pour la calibration et la validation du ou des traits choisis à l’aide des niveaux d’émergence, nommé réplication de système basé sur l’individu (Individual Based System Replication - IBSRtion) est également présenté. Ce protocole met l’emphase sur la modélisation directe, contrairement au principal protocole existant, la modélisation orientée patrons (Pattern Oriented Modelling - POM), et permet une approche empirique en générant artificiellement des données non disponibles ou ne pouvant être récoltées par des études de terrains. IBSRtion a également l’avantage de pouvoir être intégrée dans POM, afin de contribuer à la création d’une méthodologie universelle pour la conception de modèles centrés sur l’individu. Le processus de conception de ce modèle aura entre autre permis de faire une synthèse des connaissances et d’identifier certaines lacunes. Une étude visant à palier le manque de connaissances satisfaisantes sur les réponses comportementales à court-terme des proies face au risque de prédation a notamment permis d’observer que celles-ci sont une combinaison de comportements chroniques et éphémères, et que les mécanismes qui en sont à l’origine sont complexes et non-linéaires. Le résultat de ce travail est un modèle complexe utilisant de nombreux sous-modèles, et calibré de façon empirique, applicable à une grande variété d’environnements. Ce modèle a permis de tester l’impact de l’enfeuillement sur les relations prédateur-proies. Des simulations ont été effectuées pour différentes quantités d’enfeuillement, suivant deux configurations spatiales différentes. Les résultats de simulation suggèrent que des plans d’aménagement considérant également l’habitat de l’orignal pourraient être bénéfiques pour le caribou forestier, car ils permettraient d’améliorer la ségrégation spatiale entre les deux espèces, et donc entre le caribou et le loup. En le couplant avec un module de naissances et de morts naturelles ainsi qu’un modèle d’évolution du paysage, ce modèle permettra par la suite d’évaluer l’impact de plans d’aménagement forestier sur la viabilité des populations de caribou forestier.