An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Content filtering and enrichment using triplets for text generation

Existe una cantidad enorme de información en Internet acerca de incontables temas, y cada día esta información se expande más y más. En teoría, los programas informáticos podrían beneficiarse de esta gran cantidad de información disponible para establecer nuevas conexiones entre conceptos, pero esta información a menudo aparece en formatos no estructurados como texto en lenguaje natural. Por esta razón, es muy importante conseguir obtener automáticamente información de fuentes de diferentes tipos, procesarla, filtrarla y enriquecerla, para lograr maximizar el conocimiento que podemos obtener de Internet. Este proyecto consta de dos partes diferentes. En la primera se explora el filtrado de información. La entrada del sistema consiste en una serie de tripletas proporcionadas por la Universidad de Coimbra (ellos obtuvieron las tripletas mediante un proceso de extracción de información a partir de texto en lenguaje natural). Sin embargo, debido a la complejidad de la tarea de extracción, algunas de las tripletas son de dudosa calidad y necesitan pasar por un proceso de filtrado. Dadas estas tripletas acerca de un tema concreto, la entrada será estudiada para averiguar qué información es relevante al tema y qué información debe ser descartada. Para ello, la entrada será comparada con una fuente de conocimiento online. En la segunda parte de este proyecto, se explora el enriquecimiento de información. Se emplean diferentes fuentes de texto online escritas en lenguaje natural (en inglés) y se extrae información de ellas que pueda ser relevante al tema especificado. Algunas de estas fuentes de conocimiento están escritas en inglés común, y otras están escritas en inglés simple, un subconjunto controlado del lenguaje que consta de vocabulario reducido y estructuras sintácticas más simples. Se estudia cómo esto afecta a la calidad de las tripletas extraídas, y si la información obtenida de fuentes escritas en inglés simple es de una calidad superior a aquella extraída de fuentes en inglés común.

Accuracy of a method based on atomic absorption spectrometry to determine inorganic arsenic in food : Outcome of the collaborative trial IMEP-41

Peer reviewed

Application of time series and Kalman filtering for structural health monitoring of a bridge

Peer reviewed

Learning Mechanisms for Information Filtering Agents

Postprint

Assessing the relative validity of the Scottish Collaborative Group Food Frequency Questionnaire for measuring dietary intake in adults

Peer reviewed

Ph.D. graduate student, Shelby Servais and REU, Julio Pachon conducted collaborative research in the wetland mesocosms during summer 2013.

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Seawater carbonate chemistry, sample density and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus size, filtering and respiration rate during experiments, 2011

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are acidifying the world's oceans. A growing body of evidence is showing that ocean acidification impacts growth and developmental rates of marine invertebrates. Here we test the impact of elevated seawater pCO2 (129 Pa, 1271 µatm) on early development, larval metabolic and feeding rates in a marine model organism, the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Growth and development was assessed by measuring total body length, body rod length, postoral rod length and posterolateral rod length. Comparing these parameters between treatments suggests that larvae suffer from a developmental delay (by ca. 8%) rather than from the previously postulated reductions in size at comparable developmental stages. Further, we found maximum increases in respiration rates of + 100 % under elevated pCO2, while body length corrected feeding rates did not differ between larvae from both treatments. Calculating scope for growth illustrates that larvae raised under high pCO2 spent an average of 39 to 45% of the available energy for somatic growth, while control larvae could allocate between 78 and 80% of the available energy into growth processes. Our results highlight the importance of defining a standard frame of reference when comparing a given parameter between treatments, as observed differences can be easily due to comparison of different larval ages with their specific set of biological characters.

Collaborative art activism – a UK perspective

Loraine traced the parallels and divergences between the art activism of Carole Conde and Karl Beveridge and herself, both in her solo practice and earlier work with artist Peter Dunn.

Minority ethno-faith communities and social inclusion through collaborative research

With alarming suicide rates and a negative identity, Alevi youth felt invisible at school where no one knew about their faith. Through collaboration between the Alevi community, Highbury Grove secondary school and the University of Westminster, we produced lessons on Alevism for the RE curriculum. Alevi pupils helped to design and deliver this successful, inclusive curriculum project, generating considerable interest from peers and the wider school community. Consequently they report a greater sense of belonging and pride in their identity.

Cooperative or collaborative learning: Is there a difference in university students’ perceptions?

The hypothesis that the same educational objective, raised as cooperative or collaborative learning in university teaching does not affect students’ perceptions of the learning model, leads this study. It analyses the reflections of two students groups of engineering that shared the same educational goals implemented through two different methodological active learning strategies: Simulation as cooperative learning strategy and Problem-based Learning as a collaborative one. The different number of participants per group (eighty-five and sixty-five, respectively) as well as the use of two active learning strategies, either collaborative or cooperative, did not show differences in the results from a qualitative perspective.

Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.