Environmental Decision Support: a Distributed Artificial Intelligence Approach

Decision making in any environmental domain is a complex and demanding activity, justifying the development of dedicated decision support systems. Every decision is confronted with a large variety and amount of constraints to satisfy as well as contradictory interests that must be sensibly accommodated. The first stage of a project evaluation is its submission to the relevant group of public (and private) agencies. The individual role of each agency is to verify, within its domain of competence, the fulfilment of the set of applicable regulations. The scope of the involved agencies is wide and ranges from evaluation abilities on the technical or economical domains to evaluation competences on the environmental or social areas. The second project evaluation stage involves the gathering of the recommendations of the individual agencies and their justified merge to produce the final conclusion. The incorporation and accommodation of the consulted agencies opinions is of extreme importance: opinions may not only differ, but can be interdependent, complementary, irreconcilable or, simply, independent. The definition of adequate methodologies to sensibly merge, whenever possible, the existing perspectives while preserving the overall legality of the system, will lead to the making of sound justified decisions. The proposed Environmental Decision Support System models the project evaluation activity and aims to assist developers in the selection of adequate locations for their projects, guaranteeing their compliance with the applicable regulations.

Environmental indicator frameworks to design and assess environmental monitoring programs

Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, vol. 22, n.1, March 2004, p. 47–62

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

Projecto de parceria entre a ONGD Estímulo e a Rede de Farmácias Portuguesas: a união de esforços entre sectores para a resolução de problemas contemporâneos

Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Gestão Estratégica das Relações Públicas.

Metodologia multicritério na seleção de sistemas de informação na gestão da cadeia de abastecimento

Os sistemas de informação empresariais têm vindo nos últimos anos a afirmar- se como ferramentas essenciais no mercado cada vez mais competitivo em que as empresas se encontram. Pretende-se com este trabalho aplicar uma metodologia de apoio à tomada de decisão baseada num modelo decisão multicritério que permite a avaliação e seleção de um sistema de informação (SI) num determinado contexto. Para atingir esse objetivo foi utilizado o estudo de caso na empresa Proef, SGSP. Foi então realizada uma revisão bibliográfica sobre a gestão da cadeia de abastecimento, logística e teoria da decisão para dar suporte a todo o trabalho prático. Posteriormente foi aplicada a metodologia Multicritério para Apoio à seleção de SI – MMASSI/TI com base nos processos existentes na organização. Com recurso à aplicação informática foi obtido o sistema de informação mais adequado ao contexto de decisão, sendo este resultado avaliado através de uma análise de sensibilidade e robustez. Desta dissertação surgiram limitações e também recomendações futuras.

Conceção e implementação de um programa de melhoria da qualidade: estudo de caso na Eurico Ferreira, S.A.

Os programas de melhoria contínua dos processos são cada vez mais a aposta das empresas para fazer face ao mercado. Através da implementação destes programas é possível conferir simplicidade e padronização aos processos e consequentemente reduzir os custos com desperdícios internos relacionados com a qualidade dos mesmos. As ferramentas de melhoria da qualidade e as ferramentas associadas ao Lean Thinking representam um pilar importante no sucesso de qualquer programa de melhoria contínua dos processos. Estas ferramentas constituem meios úteis na análise, controlo, organização de dados importantes para a correta tomada de decisão nas organizações. O presente projeto tem como principal objetivo a conceção e implementação de um programa de melhoria da qualidade na Eurico Ferreira, S.A., tendo por base a avaliação da satisfação do cliente e a aplicação dos 5S. Neste contexto, o trabalho teve como fundamentação teórica a Gestão da Qualidade, Lean Thinking e algumas ferramentas de ambas as matérias. Posteriormente foi selecionada a área de negócio da empresa a abordar. Após a seleção, realizou-se um diagnóstico inicial do processo identificando os diversos pontos de melhoria onde foram aplicadas algumas ferramentas do Lean Thinking, nomeadamente o Value Stream Mapping e a metodologia 5S. Com a primeira foi possível construir um mapa do estado atual do processo, no qual estavam representados todos os intervenientes assim como o fluxo de materiais e de informação ao longo do processo. A metodologia 5S permitiu atuar sobre os desperdícios, identificando e implementando diversas melhorias no processo. Concluiu-se que a implementação das ferramentas contribuiu eficientemente para a melhoria contínua da qualidade nos processos, tendo sido decisão da coordenação alargar o âmbito do projeto aos restantes armazéns do centro logístico da empresa. Pode afirmar-se com recurso à satisfação do cliente expressa através da evolução favorável do Service-level agreement que as ferramentas implementadas têm gerado resultados muito positivos no curto prazo.

Decision Support Concerning Demand Response Programs Design and Use – A Conceptual Framework and Simulation Tool

Demand response can play a very relevant role in the context of power systems with an intensive use of distributed energy resources, from which renewable intermittent sources are a significant part. More active consumers participation can help improving the system reliability and decrease or defer the required investments. Demand response adequate use and management is even more important in competitive electricity markets. However, experience shows difficulties to make demand response be adequately used in this context, showing the need of research work in this area. The most important difficulties seem to be caused by inadequate business models and by inadequate demand response programs management. This paper contributes to developing methodologies and a computational infrastructure able to provide the involved players with adequate decision support on demand response programs and contracts design and use. The presented work uses DemSi, a demand response simulator that has been developed by the authors to simulate demand response actions and programs, which includes realistic power system simulation. It includes an optimization module for the application of demand response programs and contracts using deterministic and metaheuristic approaches. The proposed methodology is an important improvement in the simulator while providing adequate tools for demand response programs adoption by the involved players. A machine learning method based on clustering and classification techniques, resulting in a rule base concerning DR programs and contracts use, is also used. A case study concerning the use of demand response in an incident situation is presented.

Dynamic programming for a Markov-switching jump–diffusion

We consider an optimal control problem with a deterministic finite horizon and state variable dynamics given by a Markov-switching jump–diffusion stochastic differential equation. Our main results extend the dynamic programming technique to this larger family of stochastic optimal control problems. More specifically, we provide a detailed proof of Bellman’s optimality principle (or dynamic programming principle) and obtain the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Belman equation, which turns out to be a partial integro-differential equation due to the extra terms arising from the Lévy process and the Markov process. As an application of our results, we study a finite horizon consumption– investment problem for a jump–diffusion financial market consisting of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose coefficients are assumed to depend on the state of a continuous time finite state Markov process. We provide a detailed study of the optimal strategies for this problem, for the economically relevant families of power utilities and logarithmic utilities.

In situ NIR spectroscopy monitoring of plasmid production processes effect of producing strain, medium composition and the cultivation strategy

BACKGROUNDWhile the pharmaceutical industry keeps an eye on plasmid DNA production for new generation gene therapies, real-time monitoring techniques for plasmid bioproduction are as yet unavailable. This work shows the possibility of in situ monitoring of plasmid production in Escherichia coli cultures using a near infrared (NIR) fiber optic probe. RESULTSPartial least squares (PLS) regression models based on the NIR spectra were developed for predicting bioprocess critical variables such as the concentrations of biomass, plasmid, carbon sources (glucose and glycerol) and acetate. In order to achieve robust models able to predict the performance of plasmid production processes, independently of the composition of the cultivation medium, cultivation strategy (batch versus fed-batch) and E. coli strain used, three strategies were adopted, using: (i) E. coliDH5 cultures conducted under different media compositions and culture strategies (batch and fed-batch); (ii) engineered E. coli strains, MG1655endArecApgi and MG1655endArecA, grown on the same medium and culture strategy; (iii) diverse E. coli strains, over batch and fed-batch cultivations and using different media compositions. PLS models showed high accuracy for predicting all variables in the three groups of cultures. CONCLUSIONNIR spectroscopy combined with PLS modeling provides a fast, inexpensive and contamination-free technique to accurately monitoring plasmid bioprocesses in real time, independently of the medium composition, cultivation strategy and the E. coli strain used.

Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

How to link organizational competences in public organizations?

Comunicação apresentada na 17ª Conferência Anual da Network of Intitutes and Schools of Public Administration (NISPA) em Birdua, Montenegro de 14 a 16 dem Maio de 2009.

Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

Liderança e estratégia em contexto de inovação nas organizações de saúde : estudos de caso

RESUMO - A presente investigação procura descrever e compreender como a estratégia influencia a liderança e como esta por sua vez interage nos processos de inovação e mudança, em organizações de saúde. Desconhecem-se estudos anteriores, em Portugal, sobre este problema de investigação e da respectiva problemática teórica. Trata-se de um estudo exploratório e descritivo que envolveu 5 organizações de saúde, 4 portuguesas e 1 espanhola, 4 hospitais (dois privados e uma unidade local de saúde). Utilizou-se uma abordagem mista de investigação (qualitativa e quantitativa), que permitiu compreender, através do estudo de caso, como se articulam a estratégia, a liderança e a inovação nessas cinco organizações de saúde. Os resultados do estudo empírico foram provenientes da recolha de dados efectuada através de observação directa e estruturada, entrevistas com actores-chave, documentos em suporte de papel e digital, e ainda inquérito por questionário de auto-resposta a uma amostra (n=165) de actores do line e do staff (Administradores, Directores de Serviço/Departamento, Enfermeiros Chefe e Técnicos Coordenadores) das cinco organizações de saúde. Tanto o modelo de Miles & Snow (estratégia organizacional), como o modelo dos valores contrastantes de Quinn (cultura organizacional e liderança), devidamente adaptados, mostram-se heurísticos e provam poder aplicar-se às organizações de saúde, apesar a sua complexidade e especificidade. Tanto as organizações do sector público como do sector privado e organizações públicas concessionadas (parcerias público privadas) podem ser acompanhadas e monitorizadas nos seus processos de inovação e mudança, associados aos tipos de cultura, liderança ou estratégia organizacionais adoptadas. As organizações de saúde coabitam num continuum, onde o ambiente (quer interno quer externo) e o tempo são factores decisivos que condicionam a estratégia a adoptar. Também aqui, em função da realidade dinâmica e complexa onde a organização se move, não há tipologias puras. Há, sim, uma grande plasticidade e flexibilidade organizacionais. Quanto aos líderes, exercem habitualmente a autoridade formal, pela via da circular normativa. Não são pares (nem primi inter pares), colocam-se por vezes numa posição de superioridade, quando o mais adequado seria a relação de parceria, cooperação e procura de consensos, com todos os colaboradores, afim de serem eles os verdadeiros protagonistas e facilitadores da mudança e das inovações. Como factores facilitadores da inovação e da mudança, encontrámos nas organizações de saúde estudadas o seguinte: facilidade de aprender; visão/missão adequadas; ausência de medo de falhar; e como factores inibidores: falta de articulação entre serviços/departamentos; estrutura organizacional (no sector público muito verticalizada e no sector privado mais horizontalizada); resistência à mudança; falta de tempo; falha no tempo de reacção (o tempo útil para a tomada de decisão é, por vezes, ultrapassado). --------ABSTRACT - The present research seeks to describe and understand how strategy influences leadership and how this in turn interacts in the process of innovation and change in health organizations. Previous studies on these topics are unknown in Portugal, about this research problem and its theoretical problem. This is an exploratory and descriptive study that involved 5 health organizations, 4 Portuguese and 1 Spanish. We used a mixed approach of research (qualitative and quantitative), which enabled us to understand, through case study, how strategy and leadership were articulated with innovation in these five health organizations. The results of the empirical study came from data collection through direct observation, interviews with key actors, documents and survey questionnaire answered by 165 participants of line and staff (Administrators, Medical Directors of Service /Department, Head Nurses and Technical Coordinators) of the five health organizations. Despite their complexity and specificity, both the model of Miles & Snow (organizational strategy) and the model of the Competing Values Framework of Quinn (organizational culture and leadership), suitably adapted, have proven heuristic power and able to be apply to healthcare organizations. Both public sector organizations, private and public organizations licensed (public-private partnerships) can be tracked and monitored in their processes of innovation and change in order to understand its kind of culture, leadership or organizational strategy adopted. Health organizations coexist in a continuum, where the environment (internal and external) and time are key factors which determine the strategy to adopt. Here too depending on the dynamic and complex reality where the organization moves, there are no pure types. There is indeed a great organizational plasticity and flexibility. Leaders usually carry the formal authority by circular normative. They are not pairs (or primi inter pares). Instead they are, sometimes, in a position of superiority, when the best thing is partnership, collaboration, cooperation, building consensus and cooperation with all stakeholders, in order that they are the real protagonists and facilitators of change and innovation. As factors that facilitate innovation and change, we found in health organizations studied, the following: ease of learning; vision / mission appropriate; absence of fear of failure, and as inhibiting factors: lack of coordination between agencies / departments; organizational structure (in the public sector it is too vertical and in the private sector it is more horizontal); resistance to change; lack of time and failure in the reaction time (the time for decision making is sometimes exceeded).

Group decision making for selection of an information system in a business context

The main objective of this work is to report on the development of a multi-criteria methodology to support the assessment and selection of an Information System (IS) framework in a business context. The objective is to select a technological partner that provides the engine to be the basis for the development of a customized application for shrinkage reduction on the supply chains management. Furthermore, the proposed methodology di ers from most of the ones previously proposed in the sense that 1) it provides the decision makers with a set of pre-defined criteria along with their description and suggestions on how to measure them and 2)it uses a continuous scale with two reference levels and thus no normalization of the valuations is required. The methodology here proposed is has been designed to be easy to understand and use, without a specific support of a decision making analyst.

Georeferencing Road Accidents with Google Earth: Transforming Information into Knowledge for Decision Support

Over the last fifty years mobility practices have changed dramatically, improving the way travel takes place, the time it takes but also on matters like road safety and prevention. High mortality caused by high accident levels has reached untenable levels. But the research into road mortality stayed limited to comparative statistical exercises which go no further than defining accident types. In terms of sharing information and mapping accidents, little progress has been mad, aside from the normal publication of figures, either through simplistic tables or web pages. With considerable technological advances on geographical information technologies, research and development stayed rather static with only a few good examples on dynamic mapping. The use of Global Positioning System (GPS) devices as normal equipments on automobile industry resulted in a more dynamic mobility patterns but also with higher degrees of uncertainty on road traffic. This paper describes a road accident georeferencing project for the Lisbon District involving fatalities and serious injuries during 2007. In the initial phase, individual information summaries were compiled giving information on accidents and its majour characteristics, collected by the security forces: the Public Safety Police Force (Polícia de Segurança Pública - PSP) and the National Guard (Guarda Nacional Republicana - GNR). The Google Earth platform was used to georeference the information in order to inform the public and the authorities of the accident locations, the nature of the location, and the causes and consequences of the accidents. This paper also gives future insights about augmented reality technologies, considered crucial to advances to road safety and prevention studies. At the end, this exercise could be considered a success because of numerous consequences, as for stakeholders who decide what to do but also for the public awareness to the problem of road mortality.