980 resultados para MAXIMUM PENALIZED LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES


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In the deep-sea, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is often marked by clay-rich condensed intervals caused by dissolution of carbonate sediments, capped by a carbonate-rich interval. Constraining the duration of both the dissolution and subsequent cap-carbonate intervals is essential to computing marine carbon fluxes and thus testing hypotheses for the origin of this event. To this end, we provide new high-resolution helium isotope records spanning the Paleocene-Eocene boundary at ODP Site 1266 in the South Atlantic. The extraterrestrial 3He, 3HeET, concentrations replicate trends observed at ODP Site 690 by Farley and Eltgroth (2003, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00017-7). By assuming a constant flux of 3HeET we constrain relative changes in accumulation rates of sediment across the PETM and construct a new age model for the event. In this new chronology the zero carbonate layer represents 35 kyr, some of which reflects clay produced by dissolution of Paleocene (pre-PETM) sediments. Above this layer, carbonate concentrations increase for ~165 kyr and remain higher than in the latest Paleocene until 234 +48/-34 kyr above the base of the clay. The new chronology indicates that minimum d13C values persisted for a maximum of 134 +27/-19 kyr and the inflection point previously chosen to designate the end of the CIE recovery occurs at 217 +44/-31 kyr. This allocation of time differs from that of the cycle-based age model of Röhl et al. (2007, doi:10.1029/2007GC001784) in that it assigns more time to the clay layer followed by a more gradual recovery of carbonate-rich sedimentation. The new model also suggests a longer sustained d13C excursion followed by a more rapid recovery to pre-PETM d13C values. These differences have important implications for constraining the source(s) of carbon and mechanisms for its subsequent sequestration, favoring models that include a sustained release

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A diverse assemblage of marine palynomorphs was recovered from the Oligocene - Miocene section of CRP-2/2A. Most of the assemblage is composed of previously unrecognised species. Three distinct groups of marine palynomorph were recognised: (1) prasinophytes, mainly Cymatiosphaera, (2) acritarchs, mainly Leiosphaeridia and Sigmopollis although Leiofusa is an important component of the bottom half of the hole, and (3) dinoflagellate cysts. About 27 species of in situ dinoflagellate cysts were recorded, of which seven apparently undescribed species of Lejeunecysta form a prominent component. Reworked specimens of several species of the Paleogene Transantarctic Flora occur in CRP-2/2A sediments. Several abundance peaks of reworked taxa from the Transantarctic Flora are recorded. Three marine palynomorph zones were recognised (MP3, MP2, MP1), considered to be early Oligocene, late Oligocene, and late Oligocene/early Miocene in age respectively. Samples from the Quaternary and Pliocene part of CRP-2/2A were also examined. These proved either barren or yielded very sparse low diversity floras.

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The aim of this contribution is to supply summarized information on the distribution and numbers of marine mammals in the Antarctic. In relation to the topic of the workshop the question to be answered is: "Is there spatial or temporal variation in mammalian presence in the Antarctic area that has relevance to the operation of acoustic devices". If acoustic devices have impact on marine mammals, this does not stop at political borders. Nevertheless, since legal implementation of the Antarctic Environmental Protocol was the major stimulus behind the workshop, this contribution was asked to limit itself to the Antarctic Treaty area, that is south of 60°S.

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A map of estimated calcification temperatures of the planktic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral (TNps) for the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the Last Glacial Maximum was produced from oxygen isotopes with support of Mg/Ca ratios. To arrive at the reconstruction, several constraints concerning the plausible salinity and ?18O-fields were employed. The reconstruction indicates inflow of temperate waters in a wedge along the eastern border of the Nordic Seas and at least seasonally ice-free waters. The reconstruction from oxygen isotopes shows similarities with Mg/Ca based paleotemperatures in the southern and southeastern sector, while unrealistically high Mg/Ca values in the central Nordic Seas prevent the application of the method in this area. The oxygen isotope based reconstruction shows some agreement with temperature reconstructions based on the modern analogue technique, but with somewhat lower temperatures and a stronger internal gradient inside the Nordic Seas. All told, our results suggest a much more ice-free and dynamic high latitude ocean than the CLIMAP reconstruction.

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Eviction from housing is an institutionalized social process affecting millions in the western world, but very little is understood about its impact on people’s lives. Guided by George Brown and Tirril Harris’s landmark sociological research on disruptive life events, together with evidence that home is an important ‘place’, this study aims to contribute to an understanding of eviction’s fallout by considering depression as a potential outcome. Taking advantage of unique data on all evictions in Sweden and linking to longitudinal registers, this study seeks to determine whether working-age adults facing imminent eviction in 2009 had a greater risk of depression in the following year compared, using penalized maximum likelihood logistic regressions, to a control group randomly drawn from the Swedish population. Results indicate that imminent eviction is significantly associated with subsequent depression, even accounting for a range of social, economic, geographic and behavioral characteristics. Contrary to expectations, the findings are not robust for gender differences. Recent mental illness is the only control variable significantly moderating the association of interest, which remains significant regardless of illness history. The results provide grounds for treating eviction as a disruptive life event in its own right.

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In simultaneous analyses of multiple data partitions, the trees relevant when measuring support for a clade are the optimal tree, and the best tree lacking the clade (i.e., the most reasonable alternative). The parsimony-based method of partitioned branch support (PBS) forces each data set to arbitrate between the two relevant trees. This value is the amount each data set contributes to clade support in the combined analysis, and can be very different to support apparent in separate analyses. The approach used in PBS can also be employed in likelihood: a simultaneous analysis of all data retrieves the maximum likelihood tree, and the best tree without the clade of interest is also found. Each data set is fitted to the two trees and the log-likelihood difference calculated, giving partitioned likelihood support (PLS) for each data set. These calculations can be performed regardless of the complexity of the ML model adopted. The significance of PLS can be evaluated using a variety of resampling methods, such as the Kishino-Hasegawa test, the Shimodiara-Hasegawa test, or likelihood weights, although the appropriateness and assumptions of these tests remains debated.

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A generic method for the estimation of parameters for Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations (SODEs) is introduced and developed. This algorithm, called the GePERs method, utilises a genetic optimisation algorithm to minimise a stochastic objective function based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Numerical simulations are utilised to form the KS statistic. Further, the examination of some of the factors that improve the precision of the estimates is conducted. This method is used to estimate parameters of diffusion equations and jump-diffusion equations. It is also applied to the problem of model selection for the Queensland electricity market. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A restricted maximum likelihood analysis applied to an animal model showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) in pH value of the longissimus dorsi measured at 24 h post-mortem (pH24) between high and low lines of Large White pigs selected over 4 years for post-weaning growth rate on restricted feeding. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between pH24 and production and carcass traits were estimated using all performance testing records combined with the pH24 measurements (5.05–7.02) on slaughtered animals. The estimate of heritability for pH24 was moderate (0.29 ± 0.18). Genetic correlations between pH24 and production or carcass composition traits, except for ultrasonic backfat (UBF), were not significantly different from zero. UBF had a moderate, positive genetic correlation with pH24 (0.24 ± 0.33). These estimates of genetic correlations affirmed that selection for increased growth rate on restricted feeding is likely to result in limited changes in pH24 and pork quality since the selection does not put a high emphasis on reduced fatness.