A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Modulating exercise-induced hormesis: Does less equal more?

Hormesis enco 16 mpasses the notion that low levels of stress stimulate or upregulate 17 existing cellular and molecular pathways that improve the capacity of cells and organisms to 18 withstand greater stress. This notion underlies much of what we know about how exercise 19 conditions the body and induces long-term adaptations. During exercise, the body is 20 exposed to various forms of stress, including thermal, metabolic, hypoxic, oxidative, and 21 mechanical stress. These stressors activate biochemical messengers, which in turn activate 22 various signaling pathways that regulate gene expression and adaptive responses. 23 Historically, antioxidant supplements, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and 24 cryotherapy have been favored to attenuate or counteract exercise-induced oxidative stress 25 and inflammation. However, reactive oxygen species and inflammatory mediators are key 26 signaling molecules in muscle, and such strategies may mitigate adaptations to exercise. 27 Conversely, withholding dietary carbohydrate and restricting muscle blood flow during 28 exercise may augment adaptations to exercise. In this review article, we combine, integrate, 29 and apply knowledge about the fundamental mechanisms of exercise adaptation. We also 30 critically evaluate the rationale for using interventions that target these mechanisms under 31 the overarching concept of hormesis. There is currently insufficient evidence to establish 32 whether these treatments exert dose-dependent effects on muscle adaptation. However, 33 there appears to be some dissociation between the biochemical/molecular effects and 34 functional/performance outcomes of some of these treatments. Although several of these 35 treatments influence common kinases, transcription factors and proteins, it remains to be 36 determined if these interventions complement or negate each other, and whether such 37 effects are strong enough to influence adaptations to exercise.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Cold water immersion: Practices, trends and avenues of effect

Cold water immersion and ice baths are popular methods of recovery used by athletes. From the simple wheelie bin with water and ice, to the inflatable baths with complex water cooling units to recovery sessions in the ocean, the practice of cold water immersion is wide and varied. Research into cold water immersion was conducted as early as 1963 when Clarke1 examined the influence of cold water on performance recovery after a sustained handgrip exercise. Research has been conducted to understand how cold water immersion might affect the body’s physiological systems and how factors such as water temperature and the duration of immersion might enhance recovery after training and/or competition. Despite this research activity, how are we to know if research is being put into practice? In more serious situations, where guidelines and policies need to be standardised for the safe use of a product, one would expect that there is a straight forward follow-on from research into practice. Although cold water immersion may not need the rigor of testing compared to drug treatments, for example, the decision on whether to use cold water immersion in specific situations (e.g. after training or competition) may rest with one or two of the staff associated with the athlete/team. Therefore, it would be expected that these staff are well-informed on the current literature regarding cold water immersion.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs on the Copyright Amendment (Online Infringement) Bill 2015

We argue that safeguards are necessary to ensure human rights are adequately protected. All systems of blocking access to online content necessarily raise difficult and problematic issues of infringement of freedom of speech and access to information. Given the importance of access to information across the breadth of modern life, great care must be taken to ensure that any measures designed to protect copyright by blocking access to online locations are proportionate. Any measures to block access to online content must be carefully tailored to avoid serious and disproportionate impact on human rights. This means first that the measures must be effective and adapted to achieve a legitimate purpose. The experience of foreign jurisdictions suggests that this legislation is unlikely to be effective. Unless and until there is clear evidence that the proposed scheme is likely to increase effective returns to Australian creators, this legislation should not be introduced. Second, the principle of proportionality requires ensuring that the proposed legislation does not unnecessarily burden legitimate speech or access to information. As currently worded, the draft legislation may result in online locations being blocked even though they would, if operated in Australia, not contravene Australian law. This is unacceptable, and if introduced, the law should be drafted so that it is clearly limited only to foreign locations where there is clear and compelling evidence that the location would authorise copyright infringement if it were in Australia. Third, proportionality requires that measures are reasonable and strike an appropriate balance between competing interests. This draft legislation provides few safeguards for the public interest or the interests of private actors who would access legitimate information. New safeguards should be introduced to ensure that the public interest is well represented at both the stage of the primary application and at any applications to rescind or vary injunctions. We recommend that: The legislation not be introduced unless and until there is compelling evidence that it will have a real and significant positive impact on the effective incomes of Australian creators. The ‘facilitates an infringement’ test in s 115A(1)(b) should be replaced with ‘authorises infringement’. The ‘primary purpose’ test in s 115A(1)(c) should be replaced with: “the online location has no substantial non-infringing uses”. An explicit role for public interest groups as amici curiae should be introduced. Costs of successful applications should be borne by applicants. Injunctions should be valid only for renewable two year terms. Section 115A(5) should be clarified, and cl (b) and (c) be removed. The effectiveness of the scheme should be evaluated in two years.

An Intelligent Driver Warning System

This chapter is focussed on the research and development of an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS) as a means to improve road safety and driving comfort. Two independent IDWS case studies are presented. The first study examines the methodology and implementation for attentive visual tracking and trajectory estimation for dynamic scene segmentation problems. In the second case study, the concept of driver modelling is evaluated which can be used to provide useful feedback to drivers. In both case studies, the quality of IDWS is largely determined by the modelling capability for estimating multiple vehicle trajectories and modelling driving behaviour. A class of modelling techniques based on neural-fuzzy systems, which exhibits provable learning and modelling capability, is proposed. For complex modelling problems where the curse of dimensionality becomes an issue, a network construction algorithm based on Adaptive Spline Modelling of Observation Data (ASMOD) is also proposed.

Visual control of an electrohydraulic manipulator for underground mining applications

A large range of underground mining equipment makes use of compliant hydraulic arms for tasks such as rock-bolting, rock breaking, explosive charging and shotcreting. This paper describes a laboratory model electo-hydraulic manipulator which is used to prototype novel control and sensing techniques. The research is aimed at improving the safety and productivity of these mining tasks through automation, in particular the application of closed-loop visual positioning of the machine's end-effector.

Applications of real-time machine vision to the control of mining equipment

The mining industry presents us with a number of ideal applications for sensor based machine control because of the unstructured environment that exists within each mine. The aim of the research presented here is to increase the productivity of existing large compliant mining machines by retrofitting with enhanced sensing and control technology. The current research focusses on the automatic control of the swing motion cycle of a dragline and an automated roof bolting system. We have achieved: * closed-loop swing control of an one-tenth scale model dragline; * single degree of freedom closed-loop visual control of an electro-hydraulic manipulator in the lab developed from standard components.

Automation of underground truck haulage

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in the automation of underground truck haulage. Past attempts at automating LHDs and haul trucks are described and their particular strengths and weaknesses are listed. We argue that the simple auto-tramming systems currently being commercialised, that follow rail-type guides placed along the back, cannot match the performance, flexibility and reliability of systems based on modern mobile robotic principles. In addition, the lack of collision detection research in the underground environment is highlighted.

Dragline automation

Draglines are used extensively for overburden stripping in Australian open cut coal mines. This paper outlines the design of a computer control system to implement an automated swing cycle on a production dragline. Subsystems and sensors have been developed to satisfy the constraints imposed by the task, the harsh operating environment and the mines production requirements.

Sensors and control for mining robotics

This paper discusses some of the sensing technologies and control approaches available for guiding robot manipulators for a class of underground mining tasks including drilling jumbos, bolting arms, shotcreters or explosive chargers. Data acquired with such sensors, in the laboratory and underground, is presented.

‘Not a criminal in the classic sense': @DrRimmer on the sentencing of Jono Moylan #leardblockade #standwithjono

On July 25, 2014, Justice David Davies sentenced Jonathan Moylan at the Supreme Court of New South Wales for a breach of section 1041E (1) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The ruling is a careful and deliberate decision, showing equipoise. Justice Davies has a reputation for being a thoughtful and philosophical adjudicator. The judge convicted and sentenced Moylan to imprisonment for 1 year and 8 months. The judge ordered that Moylan be “immediately released upon giving security by way of recognisance in the sum of $1000 to be of good behaviour for a period of 2 years commencing today”.

The High Court of Australia and the Marlboro Man: The Battle Over the Plain Packaging of Tobacco Products

In 2012, the High Court of Australia handed down a landmark decision on the plain packaging of tobacco products. This chapter considers the historic ruling in the case of JT International SA v Commonwealth; British American Tobacco Australasia Ltd v Commonwealth. This chapter explores several themes in the decision. First, it highlights the historical work by the High Court of Australia on the role of health regulation, the use of health warnings, and tobacco control. Second, the chapter considers the High Court of Australia's view that intellectual property law promotes the public interest.Third, it explores the High Court of Australia’s analysis of the constitutional law on acquisition of property on just terms. Finally, this chapter contends that the High Court of Australia's ruling on plain packaging of tobacco products will spark an 'Olive Revolution' — and will encourage superior courts and policy-makers to follow suit.

Quantification of prone thoracic manipulation using inertial sensor–derived accelerations

Objective The aim of this study was to determine the linear acceleration, time-to-peak acceleration, and effect of hand position comparing 2 clinicians completing a thoracic manipulation. Methods Thirteen volunteers received a right- and left-“handed” prone thoracic manipulation while accelerations were recorded by an inertial sensor. Peak thrust acceleration and time-to-peak thrust were measured. Results There were differences in thrust acceleration between right- and left-handed techniques for one therapist. The mean peak thrust acceleration was different between therapists, with the more practiced therapist demonstrating greater peak thrust accelerations. Time-to-peak acceleration also revealed between therapist differences, with the more practiced therapist demonstrating shorter time-to-peak acceleration. Cavitation data suggested that manipulations with greater accelerations were more likely to result in cavitation. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that with greater frequency of use, therapists are likely to achieve greater accelerations and shorter time-to-peak accelerations. Furthermore, this study showed that an inertial sensor can be used to quantify important variables during thoracic manipulation and are able to detect intertherapist differences in technique.