CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Balancing effluent quality, economic cost and greenhouse gas emissions during the evaluation of (plant-wide) control/operational strategies in WWTPs

The objective of this paper was to show the potential additional insight that result from adding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to plant performance evaluation criteria, such as effluent quality (EQI) and operational cost (OCI) indices, when evaluating (plant-wide) control/operational strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The proposed GHG evaluation is based on a set of comprehensive dynamic models that estimate the most significant potential on-site and off-site sources of CO2, CH4 and N2O. The study calculates and discusses the changes in EQI, OCI and the emission of GHGs as a consequence of varying the following four process variables: (i) the set point of aeration control in the activated sludge section; (ii) the removal efficiency of total suspended solids (TSS) in the primary clarifier; (iii) the temperature in the anaerobic digester; and (iv) the control of the flow of anaerobic digester supernatants coming from sludge treatment. Based upon the assumptions built into the model structures, simulation results highlight the potential undesirable effects of increased GHG production when carrying out local energy optimization of the aeration system in the activated sludge section and energy recovery from the AD. Although off-site CO2 emissions may decrease, the effect is counterbalanced by increased N2O emissions, especially since N2O has a 300-fold stronger greenhouse effect than CO2. The reported results emphasize the importance and usefulness of using multiple evaluation criteria to compare and evaluate (plant-wide) control strategies in a WWTP for more informed operational decision making

Very preterm infants in Finland - Use of health care services and economic consequences during the first five years of life

The aim of this thesis was to study the health, the hospitalisations, and the use of communal health care services in very preterm children during the first five years of life. In addition, the effect of very preterm birth and prematurity-related morbidities on the costs of hospitalisations, other health care services and the cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) were studied. This population-based study included all very preterm children (gestational age (GA) <32 weeks or birth weight<1501g, N=2 064) and full-term controls (GA 37+0−41+6, N=200 609) born in Finland during 2000-2003. The data sources included national register data, costing data from the participating hospitals and parental questionnaires. This study showed that most very preterm infants born in Finland survived without prematurity-related morbidities diagnosed during the first years of life. They required relatively little hospital care after the initial discharge, which accounted for the vast majority of the total four-year hospitalisation costs. However, a minority of children born very preterm later developing morbidities had a long initial length of stay and more re-admissions and outpatient visits during the five-year follow-up period. In particular, the number and costs of non-emergency outpatient visits were considerable in individuals with prematurity-related morbidities. The need and costs of hospitalisations decreased clearly with each follow-up year, even in individuals with morbidities. The health-care related costs during the fifth year of life in children born very preterm without prematurity-related morbidities were close to the costs in infants born healthy at term. The cost per QALY of 19,245 € was at an acceptable level already by four years of age in the very preterm population as a whole. Prematurity-related later morbidities and decreasing GA increased the costs per QALY. As the initial hospital stay accounted for a great majority of the total four-year costs, and the costs of hospitalisation decreased with each follow-up year, the cost per QALY is likely to decrease with age. In conclusion, the majority of costs arising after the initial hospitalisation were associated with morbidities related to prematurity. Therefore offering high-quality neonatal care to prevent later morbidities in very preterm survivors has a long-term impact on the cost per QALY. In addition, this study indicates that when estimating the costs of prematurity after the first year of life, one should calculate not only the hospitalisation costs, but also other costs for social welfare services, primary care, and therapies, as these exceed the hospitalisation costs in very preterm infants during the fifth year of life.

Evaluation of novel programs in health counseling – their effectiveness in the oral health of young children, and their acceptance by parents and professionals in public dental service.

Aim and design: To evaluate family-based health counseling for young children, and to study the significance of adding parental self-care or the training of professionals to the programs. The effectiveness and acceptability of the programs were evaluated by comparing two new programs with an earlier one. Subjects and methods: The study was carried out in Vantaa, which was divided into three study areas. The subjects consisted of children born in 2008, particularly fi rstborn children, while children born in 2006 formed the historical control. The fi rst of the new programs emphasized oral hygiene and use of fl uoride, and the second program focused on proper diet and use of xylitol. The main outcome measure was mutansstreptococci (MS) in the dental biofi lm of two-year-olds, and the opinions of parents and dental professionals were evaluated using questionnaires. Results: The programs found wide acceptance among dental professionals. There were no group-related differences found in the MS scores of the two-year-olds. However, all groups combined, father’s advanced level of education and child’s proper use of xylitol were associated with negative MS scores. In the opinion of parents, the oral healthcare guidance at least somewhat met their expectations. Conclusions: The present fi ndings suggest that providing training and support for professionals in health education is important. The addition of parental self-care to supplement programs aimed at young children does not improve the program, although it may improve parental readiness to change their own health habits. Counseling for families might be best carried out through a routine patient-centered program.

Molecular characterization and evaluation of antimicrobial susceptibility of enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) isolated from minas soft cheese

Foodborne disease caused by microorganisms is a problem of public health. Minas soft cheese is a national product manufactured using simple technology; it has high level of acceptance in the country making its production an important economic activity. Many microorganisms may be present in foods including the bacterium Escherichia coli (E. coli). Overall, E. coli is a harmless commensal bacterium; however, some strains may have a pathogenic potential. Several outbreaks of foodborne diseases associated with consumption of contaminated cheese have been reported, and the presence of pathogenic strains of E. coli has increased. The objective of this study was to isolate, evaluate the antimicrobial susceptibility, and characterize, by Multiplex PCR, the pathogenic E. coli strains isolated from Minas cheese commercialized in Rio de Janeiro. Thirty samples were analyzed and five strains of E. coli (EPEC) were identified. The assessment of antimicrobial susceptibility revealed 40% of the isolates resistant to ampicillin and 40% with intermediate resistance to ampicillin-sulbactam combination. These findings are a warning signal to health authorities since Minas cheese is a ready to eat food product, and therefore should not pose health risks to the population.

Evaluation of the main energy scenarios for the global energy transition

Energy scenarios are used as a tool to examine credible future states and pathways. The one who constructs a scenario defines the framework in which the possible outcomes exist. The credibility of a scenario depends on its compatibility with real world experiences, and on how well the general information of the study, methodology, and originality and processing of data are disclosed. In the thesis, selected global energy scenarios’ transparency and desirability from the society’s point of view were evaluated based on literature derived criteria. The global energy transition consists of changes to social conventions and economic development in addition to technological development. Energy solutions are economic and ethical choices due to far-reaching impacts of energy decision-making. Currently the global energy system is mostly based on fossil fuels, which is unsustainable over the long-term due to various reasons: negative climate change impacts, negative health impacts, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, resource-use conflicts with water management and food supply, loss of biodiversity, challenge to preserve ecosystems and resources for future generations, and inability of fossil fuels to provide universal access to modern energy services. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage cannot be regarded as sustainable energy solutions due to their inherent risks and required long-term storage. The energy transition is driven by a growing energy demand, decreasing costs of renewables, modularity and scalability of renewable technologies, macroeconomic benefits of using renewables, investors’ risk awareness, renewable energy related attractive business opportunities, almost even distribution of solar and wind resources on the planet, growing awareness of the planet’s environmental status, environmental movements and tougher environmental legislation. Many of the investigated scenarios identified solar and wind power as a backbone for future energy systems. The scenarios, in which the solar and wind potentials were deployed in largest scale, met best the set out sustainability criteria. In future research, energy scenarios’ transparency can be improved by better disclosure on who has ordered the study, clarifying the funding, clearly referencing to used sources and indicating processed data, and by exploring how variations in cost assumptions and deployment of technologies influence on the outcomes of the study.

Becoming Peer Health Leaders: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation of a Youth Leadership Camp Preparing Peer Leaders for Participation in a Health Promotion Initiative.

Youth are critical partners in health promotion, but the process of training young people to become meaningfully involved is challenging. This mixed-methods evaluation considered the impact of a leadership camp in preparing 42 grade seven students to become peer health leaders in a ‘heart health’ initiative. The experiences of participants and their sense of agency were explored. Data were collected from pre and post camp surveys, focus groups, student journals and researcher observations. Findings indicate that relationships with peers and adults were key to agency development, and participants appeared to broaden their perspectives on the meanings of ‘health’ and ‘leadership.’ Significant changes on two sub-scales of the Harter Perceived Competence Scale for Children were also found. Suggestions for practice and further research are provided.

Development of a Chinese version WHO Self-Assessment Tool for Evaluating Health Promotion in Hospital

[Support Institutions:] Department of Administration of Health, University of Montreal, Canada Public Health School of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Economic Impacts Of Air Pollution on Human Health and Property Values

The objectives of the present study are to provide a systematic descriptive documentation of the nature of air pollution of the Cochin industrial agglomeration, estimate the willingness to pay for morbidity reduction due to air pollution in observed and hypothetical markets and to estimate the value of welfare loss in the purchase of property due to reduced air quality. This study is an attempt to examine economic impacts of air pollution on the human health and property values in the industrial capital of Kerala. The process of industrialization in Kerala and the increase in air pollution created damages to human, natural and economic resources in the state. The study documents the extent of air pollution and applied econometric approaches to estimate economic impacts of air pollution on human health and property values. The Important sources of air pollution identified in Cochin are emissions from industries and automobiles.

An evaluation of Primary health care system in Kerala

The thesis entitled An Evaluation of Primary Health Care System in Kerala. The present study is intended to examine the working of primary health care system and its impact on the health status of people. The hypothesis tested in the thesis includes, a. The changes in the health profile require reallocation of resources of primary health care system, b. Rate of utilization depends on the quality of services provided by primary health centers, and c. There is a significant decline in the operational efficiency of the primary health care system. The major elements of primary health care stated in the report of AlmaAta International Conference on Primary Health Care (WHO, 1994)” is studied on the basis of the classification of the elements in to three: Preventive, Promotive, and Curative measures. Preventive measures include Maternal and Child Health Care including family Planning. Provision of water and sanitation is reviewed under promotive measures. Curative measures are studied using the disease profile of the study area. Collection of primary data was done through a sample survey, using pre-tested interview schedule of households of the study area. Multi stage random sampling design was used for selecting the sample. The design of the present study is both descriptive and analytical in nature. As far as the analytical tools are concerned, growth index, percentages, ratios, rates, time series analysis, analysis of variance, chi square test, Z test were used for analyzing the data. Present study revealed that no one in these areas was covered under any type of health insurance. Conclusion states that considering the present changes in the health profile, traditional pattern of resource allocation should be altered to meet the urgent health care needs of the people. Preventive and promotive measures like health education for giving awareness among people to change health habits, diet pattern, life style etc. are to be developed. Proper diagnosis and treatment of the disease at the beginning of the stage itself may help to cure majority of disease. For that, Public health policy must ensure the primary health care as enunciated at Alma- Ata international Conference. At the same time Public health is not to be treated as the sole responsibility of the government. Active community participation is an essential means to attain the goals.

Vibrio harveyi phages: Isolation, characterization and evaluation of their potential as phage therapeutics on Vibrio harveyi in shrimp hatcheries

Aquaculture is a global industry providing food and employment thereby contributing to the economy. For the sustenance of aquaculture, disease management is a major requirement. Among the bacterial pathogens Vibrio harveyi remains to be the major one especially in shrimp culture systems. Rapid and mass mortality of shrimp larvae due to Vibrio harveyi infection is well known, and the pathogen causes serious economic losses in grow out systems as well. It suggests that a well defined management strategy has to be built up to protect the crop from Vibrio harveyi infection in aquaculture systems. Antibiotics have been the choice for quite some times which led to residues in meat and development of multidrug resistant bacteria which invited ban on their application. In this context several alternate options have been thought off such as probiotics, immunostimulants and vaccines. Phage therapy is yet another option. Phages being natural parasites of bacteria and are abundant in aquatic environments their application to control bacterial pathogens in aquaculture has commendable potential in lieu of antibiotics. For that matter the therapeutic effect of phages has been proven in several antibiotic resistant pathogens inclusive of Vibrio harveyi.

Socio-Economic Dimensions of Health Care Development Among Tribals in Kerala: A Study of Tribal Communities in Wynad

The contemporary explanations and discussions of the relationship between medicine and health, and society centre around assumptions that can be broadly classified into three setsl. The first set considers health and illness as predominantly ‘biological’ and therefore, having nothing to do with the social and economic environment in which it occurs. The struggle to combat illness therefore, lies entirely within the purview of modern medicine which is neutral to economic or social change. The second considers practice of medicine as a natural science. It allows the doctor to separate himself from his subject matter, the patient, in the samelway as the natural scientist is assumed to separate himself from his subject matter, the natural world. As a 'science' and with the scientific method, it can produce unchallengable and autonomous body of knowledge which is free from the wider social and economic context. The third, different from the above, recognises the relationship between health, medicine and society. Social and environmental aspects as determinants of illness or of health comes to sharp focus here and it assigns to medicine the status of a mediator, the only viable mediator, between people and diseases. In this scheme of things the usefulness of medicine is unquestionable but the problem lies in not having enough of it to go arounds.