Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

A Systems-level approach to building sustainable assessment cultures : moderation, quality task design and dependability of judgement

This paper considers the conditions that are necessary at system and local levels for teacher assessment to be valid, reliable and rigorous. With sustainable assessment cultures as a goal, the paper examines how education systems can support local level efforts for quality learning and dependable teacher assessment. This is achieved through discussion of relevant research and consideration of a case study involving an evaluation of a cross-sectoral approach to promoting confidence in school-based assessment in Queensland, Australia. Building on the reported case study, essential characteristics for developing sustainable assessment cultures are presented, including: leadership in learning; alignment of curriculum, pedagogy and assessment; the design of quality assessment tasks and accompanying standards, and evidence-based judgement and moderation. Taken together, these elements constitute a new framework for building assessment capabilities and promoting quality assurance.

Flight guardian: a common avionics architecture for collision avoidance and safe emergency landing for unmanned aerial systems

This paper presents an approach to derive requirements for an avionics architecture that provides onboard sense-and-avoid and autonomous emergency forced landing capabilities to a UAS. The approach is based on two design paradigms that (1) derive requirements analyzing the common functionality between these two functions to then derive requirements for sensors, computing capability, interfaces, etc. (2) consider the risk and safety mitigation associated with these functions to derive certification requirements for the system design. We propose to use the Aircraft Certification Matrix (ACM) approach to tailor the system Development Assurance Levels (DAL) and architecture requirements in accordance with acceptable risk criteria. This architecture is developed under the name “Flight Guardian”. Flight Guardian is an avionics architecture that integrates common sensory elements that are essential components of any UAS that is required to be dependable. The Flight Guardian concept is also applicable to conventionally piloted aircraft, where it will serve to reduce cockpit workload.

The Australian curriculum : implications for teaching and assessment

Teachers will be aware of the raft of educational changes introduced recently and also of the associated challenges and opportunities that such educational reforms present. This PETAA Paper commences with an overview of the major educational changes and how they impinge on teachers’ classroom practice in the teaching of English and makes explicit the implications for policy support. This article aims to provide teachers with some insight into how they might respond in their teaching to develop their own assessment and pedagogic practices and in so doing support students to improve in their learning and to achieve higher standards. A group of teachers’ classroom practice, which has applicability to both Upper Primary and Middle School English teaching, is analysed to demonstrate how these teachers have pedagogically incorporated some of the ‘general capabilities’ and a cross-curriculum priority of ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander histories and cultures’ into their classroom practice.

Physical access control administration using building information models

Physical access control systems play a central role in the protection of critical infrastructures, where both the provision of timely access and preserving the security of sensitive areas are paramount. In this paper we discuss the shortcomings of existing approaches to the administration of physical access control in complex environments. At the heart of the problem is the current dependency on human administrators to reason about the implications of the provision or the revocation of staff access to an area within these facilities. We demonstrate how utilising Building Information Models (BIMs) and the capabilities they provide, including 3D representation of a facility and path-finding can reduce possible intentional or accidental errors made by security administrators.

Verifying a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM): A reality check of the model using data derived from three universities

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). We have proposed that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities and we are currently articulating a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012). Our research aims to address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. Our research extends the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). Our research also moves beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. The issues explored in this workshop are (i) whether the maturity model concept can be usefully applied to provide a measure of institutional capability for SESR; (ii) whether the SESR-MM can be used to assess the maturity of a particular set of institutional practices; and (iii) whether a collective assessment of an institution’s SESR capabilities can provide an indication of the maturity of the institution’s SESR activities. The workshop will be approached in three stages. Firstly, participants will be introduced to the key characteristics of maturity models, followed by a discussion of the SESR-MM and the processes involved in its development. Secondly, participants will be provided with resources to facilitate the development of a maturity model and an assessment instrument for a range of institutional processes and related practices. In the final stage of the workshop, participants will “assess” the capability of these practices to provide a collective assessment of the maturity of these processes. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

Regional integration 2.0 : facilitating regional integration and development with collaborative technologies

The current global economic instability and the vulnerability of small nations provide the impetus for greater integration between the countries of the South Pacific region. This exercise is critical for their survival. Past efforts of regional integration in the South Pacific have mostly failed. However, today’s IT collaborative capabilities provide the opportunity to develop a shared IT infrastructure to facilitate integration in the South Pacific. In developing an IT-backed model of regional integration, this study identifies and reports on the antecedents of the current stage for integration in the Pacific. We conducted interviews with twenty five individuals from various sectors and find that while most respondents were optimistic about the potential of IT-backed regional integration, significant challenges exists. The study identifies and discusses these challenges providing policy implications to stakeholders in the regional integration process. The findings will assist in suggesting a model of regional integration 2.0 for the Pacific region.

The moderating role of learning on competitive advantage : longitudinal evidence from young firms

The question of how young firms reconcile the absence of well-established learning routines arising from the “liabilities of newness” with the “learning advantages of newness” has received scant attention in entrepreneurship. While older firms follow established learning routines and sometimes face problems in overcoming inertia, young firms with lower levels of inertia are better poised to explore, search and test unique avenues for their products and services. The process of learning and capability development as well as establishing uniqueness in their product offerings is an important part not only in the early stages of firm growth, but also in firm survival. Given their inexperience, for young firms, these learning processes are iterative and include contrasting learning loops that sometimes progress and at other times digress from initially perceived unique ideas. Such processes are embedded within capabilities that the firm develops and nurtures. Based on this premise and adopting a capabilities-based view, we examine how strategic networks and environmental knowledge affects uniqueness- mediated performance in young firms. We identify firms with digressive learning strategies based on their self-assessment of learning and compare them with other firms to demonstrate a differential effect on performance.

History in the Australian Curriculum F-10: Providing answers without asking questions

Thi paper writer examines the most recent version of the Australian Curriculum: History F-10. It does so in two ways. First, it explores some of the strengths and weaknesses of this curriculum with reference to the decision to frame aspects of Australian history within the context of a world history approach. Whilst the positioning of Indigenous Histories is applauded, the curriculum’s lack of attention to the significance of the recent history of Australia’s Asian neighbours, and Australia’s relationship with them, is critiqued. This part of the paper also emphasises the need for comparative approaches and calls for greater emphasis on providing students with opportunities to critique and contest the construction of narratives about the past. Second, the paper introduces four invited articles that examine different aspects of the Australian Curriculum: History. Collectively these papers reiterate the significance of the richness of integrated and child-centred approaches and the importance of developing historical thinking, empathy and the historical imagination in the classroom.

Sustainable transportation development : a framework to determine transportation disadvantaged

Urban sprawl combined with low density development causes unsustainable development patterns including accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not have the capacity to own a vehicle or access to quality public transport services. Sustainable transportation development is crucial in order to solve transport disadvantage problems in urban settlements. People who are affected by these problems are referred to as ‘transportation disadvantaged’. Transportation disadvantage is a multi-dimensional problem that combines socio-economics, transportation and spatial characteristics or dimensions. However, a substantial number of transportation disadvantage studies so far only focus on the socio-economic and transportation dimensions, while the latter dimension of transportation disadvantage has been neglected. This chapter investigates the spatial dimension of transportation disadvantage by comparing the travel capabilities of residents and their accessibility levels with land use characteristics. The analysis of the study identifies significant land use characteristics with travel inability, and is useful for identifying the transportation disadvantaged population.

From the editor

In this Project Management Journal issue, the reader will “travel” from human capital to portfolio selection through knowledge development and maturity, systems thinking and problem (dis)solving, and development of combinative capabilities...

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Passenger transmission and productiveness of transit lines with high loads

Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.

Portfolio review

The portfolio can be loosely defined as a collection or collation of achievements, artefacts, creative works or examples of competencies, usually for the purpose of demonstrating a person’s capabilities in a specific field of endeavour. People make and share their portfolios for many reasons: social or cultural recognition, employment, accreditation, and educational qualification. It is this latter purpose that this chapter addresses; the creation and use of a portfolio for educational development and certification.

Say goodbye to the fries : graduate careers in media, cultural and communication studies

This article addresses the paucity of systematic data on graduate careers in the arts and humanities in the broader context of enduring public and policy debates about the benefits of education to society, the relation between public and private good that is derivable from education, and the specific disciplinary angle that can be brought to bear on these questions from media, cultural and communication studies. We report findings from a survey of ten years of graduates from Queensland University of Technology’s courses in media, cultural and communication studies which indicate very high employment levels and generally positive accounts of the relevance of courses to working life. A major insight that can be drawn from the research is that media, cultural and communication studies deliver capabilities, skills and orientations which are themselves strongly aligned with the kinds of transferable generic attributes which facilitate transition into the workplace.