897 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


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The generation of solar thermal power is dependent upon the amount of sunlight exposure,as influenced by the day-night cycle and seasonal variations. In this paper, robust optimisation is applied to the design of a power block and turbine, which is generating 30 MWe from a concentrated solar resource of 560oC. The robust approach is important to attain a high average performance (minimum efficiency change) over the expected operating ranges of temperature, speed and mass flow. The final objective function combines the turbine performance and efficiency weighted by the off-design performance. The resulting robust optimisation methodology as presented in the paper gives further information that greatly aids in the design of non-classical power blocks through considering off-design conditions and resultant performance.

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Toughness is the ability of a material to deform plastically and to absorb energy before fracture. The first of its kind, this book covers the most recent developments in the toughening of hard coatings and the methodologies for measuring the toughness of thin films and coatings. The book looks at the present status of toughness for coatings and discusses high-temperature nanocomposite coatings, porous thin films, laser treated surface layers, cracking resistance, indentation techniques, sliding contact fracture, IPN hybrid composites for protection, and adhesion strength.

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The behavior of small molecules on a surface depends critically on both molecule–substrate and intermolecular interactions. We present here a detailed comparative investigation of 1,3,5-benzene tricarboxylic acid (trimesic acid, TMA) on two different surfaces: highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) and single-layer graphene (SLG) grown on a polycrystalline Cu foil. On the basis of high-resolution scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) images, we show that the epitaxy matrix for the hexagonal TMA chicken wire phase is identical on these two surfaces, and, using density functional theory (DFT) with a non-local van der Waals correlation contribution, we identify the most energetically favorable adsorption geometries. Simulated STM images based on these calculations suggest that the TMA lattice can stably adsorb on sites other than those identified to maximize binding interactions with the substrate. This is consistent with our net energy calculations that suggest that intermolecular interactions (TMA–TMA dimer bonding) are dominant over TMA–substrate interactions in stabilizing the system. STM images demonstrate the robustness of the TMA films on SLG, where the molecular network extends across the variable topography of the SLG substrates and remains intact after rinsing and drying the films. These results help to elucidate molecular behavior on SLG and suggest significant similarities between adsorption on HOPG and SLG.

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Understanding the aetiology of patterns of variation within and covariation across brain regions is key to advancing our understanding of the functional, anatomical and developmental networks of the brain. Here we applied multivariate twin modelling and principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate the genetic architecture of the size of seven subcortical regions (caudate nucleus, thalamus, putamen, pallidum, hippocampus, amygdala and nucleus accumbens) in a genetically informative sample of adolescents and young adults (N=1038; mean age=21.6±3.2years; including 148 monozygotic and 202 dizygotic twin pairs) from the Queensland Twin IMaging (QTIM) study. Our multivariate twin modelling identified a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In addition, we also found substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52). This provides further insight into the extent and organization of subcortical genetic architecture, which includes developmental and general growth pathways, as well as the functional specialization and maturation trajectories that influence each subcortical region. This multivariate twin study identifies a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In parallel, it also describes substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52).

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BACKGROUND For engineering graduates to be work-ready with marketable skills they must not only be well-versed with engineering science and its applications, but also able to adapt to using commercial software that is widely used in engineering practice. Hydrological/hydraulic modelling is one aspect of engineering practice which demands the ability to apply fundamentals into design and construction using software. The user manuals for such software are usually tailored for the experienced engineer but not for undergraduates who typically are novices to concepts of modelling and software tools. As the focus of a course such as Advanced Water Engineering is on the wider aspects of engineering application of hydrological and hydraulic concepts, it is ineffective for the lecturers to direct the students to user manuals as students have neither the time nor the desire to sift through numerous pages in a manual. An alternative and efficient way to demonstrate the use of the software is enabling students to develop a model to simulate real-world scenario using the tools of the software and directing them to make informed decisions based on outcomes. PURPOSE Past experience of the lecturer showed that the resources available for the students left a knowledge gap leading to numerous student queries outside contact hours. The purpose of this study is to assess how effective purpose-built video resources can be in supplementing the traditional learning resources to enhance student learning. APPROACH Short-length animated video clips comprising guided step-by-step instructions were prepared using screen capture software to capture screen activity and later edited to focus on specific features using pop-up annotations; Vocal narration was purposely excluded to avoid disturbances due to noise and allow different learning paces of individual students. The video clips were made available to the students alongside the traditional resources/approaches such as in-class demonstrations, guideline notes, and tips for efficient and error-free procedural descriptions. The number of queries the lecturer received from the student cohort outside the lecture times was recorded. An anonymous survey to assess the usefulness and adequacy of the courseware was conducted. OUTCOMES While a significant decline in the number of student queries was noted, an overwhelming majority of the survey respondents confirmed the usefulness of the purpose-developed courseware. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS/SUMMARY The survey and lecturer’s experience indicated that animated demonstration video clips illustrating the various steps involved in developing hydrologic and hydraulic models and simulating design scenarios is an effective supplement for traditional learning resources. Among the many advantages of the custom-made video clips as a learning resource are that they (1) highlight the aspects that are important to undergraduate learning but not available in the software manuals as the latter are designed for more mature users/learners; (2) provide short, to-the point communication in a step-by-step manner; (3) allow students flexibility to self-learn at their own pace; (4) enhance student learning; and (5) enable time savings for the lecturer in the long term by avoiding queries of a repetitive nature. It is expected that these newly developed resources will be improved to incorporate students’ suggestions before being offered to future cohorts of students. The concept can also be expanded to other relevant courses where animated demonstrations of key modelling steps are beneficial to student learning.

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Highly efficient loading of bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) onto carriers with desirable performance is still a major challenge in the field of bone regeneration. Till now, the nanoscaled surface-induced changes of the structure and bioactivity of BMP-2 remains poorly understood. Here, the effect of nanoscaled surface on the adsorption and bioactivity of BMP-2 was investigated with a series of hydroxyapatite surfaces (HAPs): HAP crystal-coated surface (HAP), HAP crystal-coated polished surface (HAP-Pol), and sintered HAP crystal-coated surface (HAP-Sin). The adsorption dynamics of recombinant human BMP-2 (rhBMP-2) and the accessibility of the binding epitopes of adsorbed rhBMP-2 for BMP receptors (BMPRs) were examined by a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation. Moreover, the bioactivity of adsorbed rhBMP-2 and the BMP-induced Smad signaling were investigated with C2C12 model cells. A noticeably high mass-uptake of rhBMP-2 and enhanced recognition of BMPR-IA to adsorbed rhBMP-2 were found on the HAP-Pol surface. For the rhBMP-2-adsorbed HAPs, both ALP activity and Smad signaling increased in the order of HAP-Sin < HAP < HAP-Pol. Furthermore, hybrid molecular dynamics and steered molecular dynamics simulations validated that BMP-2 tightly anchored on the HAP-Pol surface with a relative loosened conformation, but the HAP-Sin surface induced a compact conformation of BMP-2. In conclusion, the nanostructured HAPs can modulate the way of adsorption of rhBMP-2, and thus the recognition of BMPR-IA and the bioactivity of rhBMP-2. These findings can provide insightful suggestions for the future design and fabrication of rhBMP-2-based scaffolds/implants.

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Living cells are the functional unit of organs that controls reactions to their exterior. However, the mechanics of living cells can be difficult to characterize due to the crypticity of their microscale structures and associated dynamic cellular processes. Fortunately, multiscale modelling provides a powerful simulation tool that can be used to study the mechanical properties of these soft hierarchical, biological systems. This paper reviews recent developments in hierarchical multiscale modeling technique that aimed at understanding cytoskeleton mechanics. Discussions are expanded with respects to cytoskeletal components including: intermediate filaments, microtubules and microfilament networks. The mechanical performance of difference cytoskeleton components are discussed with respect to their structural and material properties. Explicit granular simulation methods are adopted with different coarse-grained strategies for these cytoskeleton components and the simulation details are introduced in this review.

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In some of the countries where there has been a rapid increase in the use of online music distribution technologies, analysts have reported about declining sales of local music repertoire (e.g. Nordgård, 2013). The analysts are concerned about such tendencies since local music repertoire accounts for a sizable share of an average country’s total recorded music sales (e.g. IFPI, 2012). This paper searches for empirical evidence that may confirm these reports in a number of music markets in North America, Europe and Australasia. The paper makes a contribution to the literature on the digital transformation of the music industry since it combines and analyses data sources that previously have not been used in this context and gives a new perspective on changing user consumption practices in the music industry. The paper also examines the variation of geographic diversity over time among international acts that become commercially successful in the countries covered by the study.

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The long-term stability of methylammonium lead triiodide (MAPbI3) perovskite in moist environments is a paramount challenge to realise the commercialization of perovskite solar cells. In an attempt to address this concern, we have carried out systematic first-principles studies on the MAPbI3 perovskite with a hydrophobic graphene layer interfaced as a water barrier. We find there is a charge transfer at the graphene/MAPbI3 interface and electrons can be excited from graphene into the perovskite surface, leading to well separated electron–hole pairs, i.e. reduced recombination. By studying the optical properties, we find the hybrid graphene/MAPbI3 nanocomposite displays enhanced light absorption compared with the pristine MAPbI3. Furthermore, from an ab initio molecular dynamics simulation, the graphene/MAPbI3 nanocomposite is confirmed to be able to resist the reaction with water molecules, highlighting a great advantage of this nanocomposite in promoting long-term photovoltaic performance.

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Background and Aims: The objective of the study was to compare data obtained from the Cosmed K4 b2 and the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart for the purpose of determining the validity of the Cosmed K4 b2 in measuring resting energy expenditure. Methods: Nine adult subjects (four male, five female) were measured. Resting energy expenditure was measured in consecutive sessions using the Cosmed K4 b2, the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart separately and the Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart simultaneously, performed in random order. Resting energy expenditure (REE) data from both devices were then compared with values obtained from predictive equations. Results: Bland and Altman analysis revealed a mean bias for the four variables, REE, respiratory quotient (RQ), VCO2, VO2 between data obtained from Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart of 268 ± 702 kcal/day, -0.0±0.2, 26.4±118.2 and 51.6±126.5 ml/min, respectively. Corresponding limits of agreement for the same four variables were all large. Also, Bland and Altman analysis revealed a larger mean bias between predicted REE and measured REE using Cosmed K4 b2 data (-194±603 kcal/day) than using Deltatrac™ metabolic cart data (73±197 kcal/day). Conclusions: Variability between the two devices was very high and a degree of measurement error was detected. Data from the Cosmed K4 b2 provided variable results on comparison with predicted values, thus, would seem an invalid device for measuring adults. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

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A numerical model of the entire casting process starting from the mould filling stage to complete solidification is presented. The model takes into consideration any phase change taking place during the filling process. A volume of fluid method is used for tracking the metal–air interface during filling and an enthalpy based macro-scale solidification model is used for the phase change process. The model is demonstrated for the case of filling and solidification of Pb–15 wt%Sn alloy in a side-cooled two-dimensional rectangular cavity, and the resulting evolution of a mushy region and macrosegregation are studied. The effects of process parameters related to filling, namely degree of melt superheat and filling velocity on macrosegregation in the cavity, are also investigated. Results show significant differences in the progress of the mushy zone and macrosegregation pattern between this analysis and conventional analysis without the filling effect.

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In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

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Australia is the world’s third largest exporter of raw sugar after Brazil and Thailand, with around $2.0 billion in export earnings. Transport systems play a vital role in the raw sugar production process by transporting the sugarcane crop between farms and mills. In 2013, 87 per cent of sugarcane was transported to mills by cane railway. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high. Over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. A cane railway network mainly involves single track sections and multiple track sections used as passing loops or sidings. The cane railway system performs two main tasks: delivering empty bins from the mill to the sidings for filling by harvesters; and collecting the full bins of cane from the sidings and transporting them to the mill. A typical locomotive run involves an empty train (locomotive and empty bins) departing from the mill, traversing some track sections and delivering bins at specified sidings. The locomotive then, returns to the mill, traversing the same track sections in reverse order, collecting full bins along the way. In practice, a single track section can be occupied by only one train at a time, while more than one train can use a passing loop (parallel sections) at a time. The sugarcane transport system is a complex system that includes a large number of variables and elements. These elements work together to achieve the main system objectives of satisfying both mill and harvester requirements and improving the efficiency of the system in terms of low overall costs. These costs include delay, congestion, operating and maintenance costs. An effective cane rail scheduler will assist the traffic officers at the mill to keep a continuous supply of empty bins to harvesters and full bins to the mill with a minimum cost. This paper addresses the cane rail scheduling problem under rail siding capacity constraints where limited and unlimited siding capacities were investigated with different numbers of trains and different train speeds. The total operating time as a function of the number of trains, train shifts and a limited number of cane bins have been calculated for the different siding capacity constraints. A mathematical programming approach has been used to develop a new scheduler for the cane rail transport system under limited and unlimited constraints. The new scheduler aims to reduce the total costs associated with the cane rail transport system that are a function of the number of bins and total operating costs. The proposed metaheuristic techniques have been used to find near optimal solutions of the cane rail scheduling problem and provide different possible solutions to avoid being stuck in local optima. A numerical investigation and sensitivity analysis study is presented to demonstrate that high quality solutions for large scale cane rail scheduling problems are obtainable in a reasonable time. Keywords: Cane railway, mathematical programming, capacity, metaheuristics

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Light interception is a major factor influencing plant development and biomass production. Several methods have been proposed to determine this variable, but its calculation remains difficult in artificial environments with heterogeneous light. We propose a method that uses 3D virtual plant modelling and directional light characterisation to estimate light interception in highly heterogeneous light environments such as growth chambers and glasshouses. Intercepted light was estimated by coupling an architectural model and a light model for different genotypes of the rosette species Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh and a sunflower crop. The model was applied to plants of contrasting architectures, cultivated in isolation or in canopy, in natural or artificial environments, and under contrasting light conditions. The model gave satisfactory results when compared with observed data and enabled calculation of light interception in situations where direct measurements or classical methods were inefficient, such as young crops, isolated plants or artificial conditions. Furthermore, the model revealed that A. thaliana increased its light interception efficiency when shaded. To conclude, the method can be used to calculate intercepted light at organ, plant and plot levels, in natural and artificial environments, and should be useful in the investigation of genotype-environment interactions for plant architecture and light interception efficiency. This paper originates from a presentation at the 5th International Workshop on Functional–Structural Plant Models, Napier, New Zealand, November 2007.