Determinants of basal fat oxidation in healthy Caucasians.

In a retrospective study, we examined several determinants of basal fat oxidation in 720 healthy Caucasian volunteers. Adult men (n = 427) and women (n = 293) were characterized for resting energy expenditure and substrate oxidation by indirect calorimetry (after a 12-h overnight fast), peak O2 consumption by a treadmill test to exhaustion, body composition by hydrodensitometry, food intake from a 3-day food diary, and hormonal status by fasting hormone concentrations. Fat oxidation was negatively correlated with fat mass in men (r = -0.11; P < 0.05), but no statistical relationship was found in women. In a stepwise multiple regression analysis, fat oxidation was best predicted by peak O2 consumption and fat-free mass in men (model R2 = 0.142) and by free thyroxine, fat-free mass, and fasting insulin in women (model R2 = 0.153). Relative rates of fat oxidation (fat oxidation adjusted for differences in resting energy expenditure) were not correlated with fat mass in either gender. Women showed a lower rate of basal fat oxidation (both absolute and adjusted) than did men. Our results show that fat oxidation is not greater in individuals with a greater fat mass. Furthermore, our results support a sexual dimorphism in basal rates of fat oxidation.

Review of the Nursing Home Subvention Scheme

Review of the Nursing Home Subvention Scheme The government decided in 1997 to approve proposals from the Minister for Finance for a process of expenditure reviews as a key part of the financial management systems that are central to the Strategic Management Initiative and are intended to ensure greater predictability in resource planning. The aims of the expenditure review process are as follows: Click here to download PDF 873kb

Effect of Sequential Cold Shocks on Survival and Molting Rate in Triatoma infestans Klug

The survival and molting incidence in Triatoma infestans, a vector of Chagas disease, were investigated following sequential shocks at 0ºC in fifth instar nymphs under moderate fasting and full nutritional conditions. The shocks were separated by intervals of 8 h and 24 h at 30ºC. The results indicated that in terms of insect survival, T. infestans is tolerant to a single cold shock at 0ºC even for 12 h, or to sequential cold shocks, regardless of the nutritional state of the specimens. In terms of molting rate, fasting enhanced the tolerance to sequential cold shocks, but did not exceed the tolerance acquired by fully-nourished specimens, except when cold shocks were separated by an 8 h interval at 30ºC. The protective action elicited by fasting was assumed to be additive to that induced by a single mild cold shock or sequential cold shocks. The cold-tolerance response of T. infestans may have favoured its survival in areas of South America with low temperatures, even considering that this species is predominantly associated with human habitats.

Changes in nuclear phenotype frequencies following sequential cold shocks in Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

The nuclear phenotypes of Malpighian tubule cells in fifth instar nymphs of Triatoma infestans, one of the most important vectors of Chagas disease, were studied following sequential shocks at 0ºC, separated by intervals of 8 h and 24 h at 30ºC, under conditions of moderate fasting and full nourishment. The insects pertained to colonies reared in the laboratory and originated from domestic specimens collected in the Brazilian states of São Paulo (north) and Minas Gerais (south). Since nuclear phenotypes in this species are affected by single cold shocks, it was expected that these phenotypes could also be changed by sequential shocks. Nuclear phenotypes indicative of mechanisms of cell survival (nuclear fusion and heterochromatin decondensation) and cell death (apoptosis and necrosis) were observed concomitantly in all the conditions tested. Nuclear fusion and heterochromatin decondensation were not found relevant for the presumed acquisition of the cold-hardening response in T. infestans. The decreased frequency of apoptosis and necrosis following sequential cold shocks including under fasting conditions, indicated that tolerance to sequential cold shocks occurred in T. infestans of the mentioned origin.

Report of the National Taskforce on Obesity: Obesity - the policy challenges: Executive Summary

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Obesity - the policy challenges: The report of the National Taskforce on Obesity

Click here to download PDF The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased with alarming speed over the past twenty years. It has recently been described by the World Health Organisation as a ‘global epidemic’. In the year 2000 more than 300 million people worldwide were obese and it is now projected that by 2025 up to half the population of the United States will be obese if current trends are maintained. The disease is now a major public health problem throughout Europe. In Ireland at the present time 39% of adults are overweight and 18% are obese. Of these, slightly more men than women are obese and there is a higher incidence of the disease in lower socio-economic groups. Most worrying of all is the fact that childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in Europe, with body weight now the most prevalent childhood disease. While currently there are no agreed criteria or standards for assessing Irish children for obesity some studies are indicating that the numbers of children who are significantly overweight have trebled over the past decade. Extrapolation from authoritative UK data suggests that these numbers could now amount to more than 300,000 overweight and obese children on the island of Ireland and they are probably rising at a rate of over 10,000 per year. A balance of food intake and physical activity is necessary for a healthy weight. The foods we individually consume and our participation in physical activity are the result of a complex supply and production system. The growing research evidence that energy dense foods promote obesity is impressive and convincing. These are the foods that are high in fat, sugar and starch. Of these potentially the most significant promoter of weight gain is fat and foods from the top shelf of the food pyramid including spreads (butter and margarine), cakes and biscuits, and confectionery, when combined are the greatest contributors to fat intake in the Irish diet. In company with their adult counterparts Irish children are also consuming large amounts of energy dense foods outside the home. A recent survey revealed that slightly over half of these children ate sweets at least once a day and roughly a third of them had fizzy drinks and crisps with the same regularity. Sugar sweetened carbonated drinks are thought to contribute to obesity and for this reason the World Health Organisation has expressed serious concerns at the high and increasing consumption of these drinks by children. Physical activity is an important determinant of body weight. Over recent decades there has been a marked decline in demanding physical work and this has been accompanied by more sedentary lifestyles generally and reduced leisure-time activity. These observable changes, which are supported by data from most European countries and the United States, suggest that physical inactivity has made a significant impact on the increase in overweight and obesity being seen today. It is now widely accepted that adults shoud be involved in 45-60 minutes, and children should be involved in at least 60 minutes per day of moderate physical activity in order to prevent excess weight gain. Being overweight today not only signals increased risk of medical problems but also exposes people to serious psychosocial problems due mainly to widespread prejudice against fat people. Prejudice against obese people seems to border on the socially acceptable in Ireland. It crops up consistently in surveys covering groups such as employers, teachers, medical and healthcare personnel, and the media. It occurs among adolescents and children, even very young children. Because obesity is associated with premature death, excessive morbidity and serious psychosocial problems the damage it causes to the welfare of citizens is extremely serious and for this reason government intervention is necessary and warranted. In economic terms, a figure of approximately â,¬30million has been estimated for in-patient costs alone in 2003 for a number of Irish hospitals. This year about 2,000 premature deaths in Ireland will be attributed to obesity and the numbers are growing relentlessly. Diseases which proportionally more obese people suffer from than the general population include hypertension, type 2 diabetes, angina, heart attack and osteoarthritis. There are indirect costs also such as days lost to the workplace due to illness arising from obesity and output foregone as a result of premature death. Using the accepted EU environmental cost benefit method, these deaths alone may be costing the state as much as â,¬4bn per year. The social determinants of physical activity include factors such as socio-economic status, education level, gender, family and peer group influences as well as individual perceptions of the benefits of physical activity. The environmental determinants include geographic location, time of year, and proximity of facilities such as open spaces, parks and safe recreational areas generally. The environmental factors have not yet been as well studied as the social ones and this research gap needs to be addressed. Clearly there is a public health imperative to ensure that relevant environmental policies maximise opportunities for active transport, recreational physical activity and total physical activity. It is clear that concerted policy initiatives must be put in place if the predominantly negative findings of research regarding the determinants of food consumption and physical activity are to be accepted, and they must surely be accepted by government if the rapid increase in the incidence of obesity with all its negative consequences for citizens is to be reversed. So far actions surrounding nutrition policies have concentrated mostly on actions that are within the remit of the Department of Health and Children such as implementing the dietary guidelines. These are important but government must now look at the totality of policies that influence the type and supply of food that its citizens eat and the range and quality of opportunities that are available to citizens to engage in physical activity. This implies a fundamental examination of existing agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies and a determination to change them if they do not enable people to eat healthily and partake in physical activity. The current crisis in obesity prevalence requires a population health approach for adults and children in addition to effective weight-reduction management for individuals who are severely overweight. This entails addressing the obesogenic environment where people live, creating conditions over time which lead to healthier eating and more active living, and protecting people from the widespread availability of unhealthy food and beverage options in addition to sedentary activities that take up all of their leisure time. People of course have a fundamental right to choose to eat what they want and to be as active as they wish. That is not the issue. What the National Taskforce on Obesity has had to take account of is that many forces are actively impeding change for those well aware of the potential health and well-being consequences to themselves of overweight and obesity. The Taskforce’s social change strategy is to give people meaningful choice. Choice, or the capacity to change (because the strategy is all about change), is facilitated through the development of personal skills and preferences, through supportive and participative environments at work, at school and in the local community, and through a dedicated and clearly communicated public health strategy. High-level cabinet support will be necessary to implement the Taskforce’s recommendations. The approach to implementation must be characterised by joined-up thinking, real practical engagement by the public and private sectors, the avoidance of duplication of effort or crosspurpose approaches, and the harnessing of existing strategies and agencies. The range of government departments with roles to play is considerable. The Taskforce outlines the different contributions that each relevant department can make in driving its strategy forward. It also emphasises its requirement that all phases of the national strategy for healthy eating and physical activity are closely monitored, analysed and evaluated. The vision of the Taskforce is expressed as: An Irish society that enables people through health promotion, prevention and care to achieve and maintain healthy eating and active living throughout their lifespan. Its high-level goals are expressed as follows: Its recommendations, over eighty in all, relate to actions across six broad sectors: high-level government; education; social and community; health; food, commodities, production and supply; and the physical environment. In developing its recommendations the Taskforce has taken account of the complex, multisectoral and multi-faceted determinants of diet and physical activity. This strategy poses challenges for government, within individual departments, inter-departmentally and in developing partnerships with the commercial sector. Equally it challenges the commercial sector to work in partnership with government. The framework required for such initiative has at its core the rights and benefits of the individual. Health promotion is fundamentally about empowerment, whether at the individual, the community or the policy level.

Effect of sequential heat and cold shocks on nuclear phenotypes of the blood-sucking insect, Panstrongylus megistus (Burmeister) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

Thermal shocks induce changes in the nuclear phenotypes that correspond to survival (heterochromatin decondensation, nuclear fusion) or death (apoptosis, necrosis) responses in the Malpighian tubules of Panstrongylus megistus. Since thermal tolerance increased survival and molting rate in this species following sequential shocks, we investigated whether changes in nuclear phenotypes accompanied the insect survival response to sequential thermal shocks. Fifth instar nymphs were subjected to a single heat (35 or 40°C, 1 h) or cold (5 or 0°C, 1 h) shock and then subjected to a second shock for 12 h at 40 or 0°C, respectively, after 8, 18, 24 and 72 h at 28°C (control temperature). As with specimen survival, sequential heat and cold shocks induced changes in frequency of the mentioned nuclear phenotypes although their patterns differed. The heat shock tolerance involved decrease in apoptosis simultaneous to increase in cell survival responses. Sequential cold shocks did not involve cell/nuclear fusion and even elicited increase in necrosis with advancing time after shocks. The temperatures of 40 and 0ºC were more effective than the temperatures of 35 and 5ºC in eliciting the heat and cold shock tolerances, respectively, as shown by cytological analysis of the nuclear phenotypes. It is concluded that different sequential thermal shocks can trigger different mechanisms of cellular protection against stress in P. megistus, favoring the insect to adapt to various ecotopes.

Prompt Payments by Government Departments pursuant to Government Decision No. S29296 of May 2009

Prompt Payments by Government Departments pursuant to Government Decision No. S29296 of May 2009 Click here to download PDF 22kb

Could moderate alcohol consumption help prevent the metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus ?

Aim and purpose: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower risk of diabetes mellitus, but few data exist on the metabolic syndrome and on the metabolic impact of heavy drinking. The aim of our study was to investigate the complex relationship between alcohol and the metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus in a population-based study in Switzerland with high mean alcohol consumption. Design and methods: In 6188 adults aged 35 to 75, alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34 and >= 35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers, moderate (1-13 drinks), high (14-34 drinks) and very high (>= 35 drinks) alcohol consumption. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the ATP-III criteria and diabetes mellitus as fasting glycemia >= 7 mmol/l or self-reported medication.We used multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, smoking status, physical activity and education level to determine the prevalence of the conditions according to drinking categories. Results: 73% (n = 4502) of the participants consumed alcohol, 16% (n = 993) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 126) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, alcohol consumption had a U-shaped relationship with the metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus. The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome significantly differed between nondrinkers (24%), moderate (19%), high (20%) and very high drinkers (29%) (P<= 0.005). The prevalence of diabetes mellitus also significantly differed between nondrinkers (6.0%), moderate (3.6%), high (3.8%) and very high drinkers (6.7%) (P<= 0.05). These relationships did not differ according to beverage types. Conclusions: The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus decrease with moderate alcohol consumption and increase with heavy drinking, without differences according to beverage types. Recommending to limit alcohol consumption to 1-2 drinks/day might help prevent these conditions in primary care Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes Mellitus.

Oxygen uptake during early cardiogenesis of the chick.

Oxidative metabolism of the isolated embryonic heart of the chick has been determined using a spectrophotometric technique allowing global as well as localized micromeasurements of the O2 uptake. Entire hearts, excised from embryos of 10 somites (primordia fused, stage 10 HH) and 40 somites (S shaped, stage 20 HH) were placed in a special chamber under controlled metabolic conditions where they continued to beat spontaneously and regularly. During the 32 h of development, the O2 consumption of the whole heart increased from 0.9 +/- 0.1 to 5.3 +/- 0.8 nmol O2/h. These values corrected for protein content were, however, comparable (0.45 nmol O2.h-1.micrograms-1). At stage 10-12, the O2 uptake varied along the cardiac tube (from 0.74 to 1.0 nmol O2.h-1.mm-2). From stage 10 to 20, the O2 uptake per unit area of ventricle wall increased from 0.7 +/- 0.2 to 1.8 +/- 0.2 nmol O2.h-1.mm-2, and the O2 uptake per myocardial volume during one cardiac cycle varied from 7 to 2.5 nmol O2/cm3. These results indicate that, despite an intense morphogenesis, the cardiac tissue has a rather low and stable oxidative metabolism, although the O2 requirement of the whole heart increases significantly. Moreover, the normalized suprabasal aerobic energy expenditure decreases throughout early cardiogenesis. The functional integrity of the isolated embryonic heart combined with the experimental possibilities of the microtechnique make the preparation appropriate for studying the changes in cardiac metabolism during development.

Effects of dinner composition on postprandial macronutrient oxidation in prepubertal girls.

OBJECTIVE: To see whether a fat-rich (50%) evening meal promoted fat oxidation and a different spontaneous food intake on the following day at breakfast than a meal with a lower fat content (20%) in 10 prepubertal obese girls. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: The postabsorptive and postprandial (10.5 hours) energy expenditure after a low-fat (LF) (20% fat, 68% carbohydrate, 12% protein) and an isocaloric (2.1 MJ) and isoproteic high-fat (HF; 50% fat, 38% carbohydrate, 12% protein) meal were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: Fat oxidation was not significantly different after the two meals [LF, 31 +/- 9 vs. HF, 35 +/- 9 g/10.5 hours, p = not significant (NS)]. The girls oxidized 1.8 +/- 0.9 times more fat than that ingested (11.1 grams) with the LF meal vs. 0.3 +/- 0.3 times more fat than that ingested (27.1 grams) with the HF meal (p < 0.001). Carbohydrate oxidation was significantly higher after an LF than an HF meal (39 +/- 12 vs. 29 +/- 9 g/10.5 hours, p < 0,05). At breakfast, the girls spontaneously ingested a similar amount of energy (1.5 +/- 0.7 vs. 1.5 +/- 0.6 MJ, p = NS) and macronutrient proportions (fat, 23% vs. 26%, p = NS; protein, 9% vs. 10%; carbohydrate, 68% vs. 64%,) independently of their having eaten an HF or an LF dinner. DISCUSSION: An HF dinner did not stimulate fat oxidation, and no compensatory effect in spontaneous food intake was observed during breakfast the following morning. Cumulated total fat oxidation after dinner was higher than total fat ingested at dinner, but a much larger negative fat balance was observed after the LF meal. Spontaneous energy and nutrient intakes at breakfast were similar after LF and HF isocaloric, isoproteic dinners. This study points out the lack of sensitivity of short-term fat balance to subsequently readjust fat intake and emphasizes the importance of an LF meal to avoid transient positive fat imbalance.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PHA urges 'freshers' to be smart and know their alcohol limits

As 'fresher's week' commences, the Public Health Agency is encouraging students across Northern Ireland to avoid binge drinking and to know their limits if they do choose to drink alcohol.Enjoying new freedoms, at college or university, means taking care of yourself and others and, if you choose to drink, staying within safe alcohol limits. Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager for drugs and alcohol, said: "Some young people may drink more when they leave home, or join their friends in college or university for the first time. They might think that, as young people, they don't have to take care with alcohol, but staying within the safe drinking limits is important for everyone who drinks. Excessive and binge drinking can have lasting effects on health, such as damage to the liver, heart, brain and stomach. Drinking too much can also increase the risk of accidents and antisocial behaviour as well as sexually transmitted infections and unplanned pregnancy"."We would also strongly advise against drinking games. Although they are regarded as a 'bit of fun', in reality they can be very dangerous. As an extreme form of binge drinking, where large quantities of alcohol are consumed in a very short time, drinking games can result in alcohol poisoning, leading to brain damage, coma or death. The PHA encourages students to enjoy their new student life, but urges them to be aware of their alcohol intake and drink responsibly, especially throughout fresher's week, with the many cheap drink promotions currently available."Daily alcohol limits are recommended by the government in order to avoid the risks of excessive and binge drinking in any one session. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 units70cl bottle of wine - 7 to 10 unitsStandard 275ml of alcopops - 1.5 to 1.8 units70cl bottle of alcopops - 3.75 to 4.5 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 unitsIf you do choose to drink alcohol:DON'T:Ever drink and driveDrink on an empty stomachMix alcohol with other drugsDrink in rounds as this may speed up your drinkingLeave your drinks unattendedDO:Take sips rather than gulpsAlternate each alcoholic drink with a non alcoholic drink e.g. water or a soft drinkSet yourself a limit and try to stick to it (refer to daily alcohol limits) Take frequent breaks from drinking to give your body time to recoverTell friends and family where you are going and who you will be withRemember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or your holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.So students make smart choices this term - drink sensibly and know your limits!For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.info

PHA reinforce sensible drinking in Alcohol Awareness Week

Recent health figures show that 20% of adults surveyed admitted to drinking over the weekly alcohol limits (1)so the Public Health Agency is using Alcohol Awareness Week (14-20th November) to reinforce the importance of drinking sensibly and staying within safe alcohol limits.Government guidelines on safe drinking are 21 units per week for males and 14 units per week for females. Staying within these limits is important as excessive and binge drinking can lead, in the short term, to increased risk of accidents, antisocial behaviour, impact on relationships, unplanned pregnancy. Longer term it can damage the liver, heart, brain and stomach, not to mention the other human costs, and costs to the economy and society as a whole.Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager and Drugs and Alcohol Lead, said: "The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's drinking limits are in place to encourage the public to develop safe and sensible drinking habits. However, these recent figures highlight that not everyone is adhering to these limits. It is crucial that those who do decide to have a drink do so in moderation and stick to the recommended limits to prevent any long or short term damages".The message is clear, if you drink, remember to be smart and enjoy alcohol within safe limits. People should follow the recommended daily alcohol intake. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 units. Remember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or an upcoming holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.infoReference(1) Health Survey Northern Ireland: first results from the 2010/2011 survey (2011) DHSSPS, http://dhsspsni.giv/index/stats_research/stats-public-health.htm