863 resultados para critical path methods
ADI-Euler and extrapolation methods for the two-dimensional fractional advection-dispersion equation
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Protection of “critical infrastructure” has become a major issue for govern- ments worldwide. Yet in Australia, as in many other countries, including the United States, an estimated 90% of critical infrastructure is privately owned or operated commercially – in other words, critical infrastructure protection is not the exclusive domain of government. As a result, information sharing between government and the private sector has become a vitally important component of effective risk management. However, establishing effective arrangements of this kind between the public and private sector needs to take account of existing regimes of access and public disclosure which relate to government-held documents; in particular, that which is established by freedom of information (FOI) legislation. This article examines the extent to which the current Commonwealth FOI regime is likely to act as an impediment to the private sector operators of critical infrastructure participat- ing in government-operated information sharing arrangements. By examining developments in other jurisdictions, principally the United States, the article considers whether amendments to the current Australian FOI regime are necessary to ensure effective participation, consistent with the underlying object and purpose of FOI.
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Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.
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Industrial applications of the simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic technology have brought an emergent demand to improve the SMB process operation for higher efficiency and better robustness. Improved process modelling and more-efficient model computation will pave a path to meet this demand. However, the SMB unit operation exhibits complex dynamics, leading to challenges in SMB process modelling and model computation. One of the significant problems is how to quickly obtain the steady state of an SMB process model, as process metrics at the steady state are critical for process design and real-time control. The conventional computation method, which solves the process model cycle by cycle and takes the solution only when a cyclic steady state is reached after a certain number of switching, is computationally expensive. Adopting the concept of quasi-envelope (QE), this work treats the SMB operation as a pseudo-oscillatory process because of its large number of continuous switching. Then, an innovative QE computation scheme is developed to quickly obtain the steady state solution of an SMB model for any arbitrary initial condition. The QE computation scheme allows larger steps to be taken for predicting the slow change of the starting state within each switching. Incorporating with the wavelet-based technique, this scheme is demonstrated to be effective and efficient for an SMB sugar separation process. Moreover, investigations are also carried out on when the computation scheme should be activated and how the convergence of the scheme is affected by a variable stepsize.
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Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as an ideal platform for a wide range of civil applications such as disaster monitoring, atmospheric observation and outback delivery. However, the operation of UAVs is currently restricted to specially segregated regions of airspace outside of the National Airspace System (NAS). Mission Flight Planning (MFP) is an integral part of UAV operation that addresses some of the requirements (such as safety and the rules of the air) of integrating UAVs in the NAS. Automated MFP is a key enabler for a number of UAV operating scenarios as it aids in increasing the level of onboard autonomy. For example, onboard MFP is required to ensure continued conformance with the NAS integration requirements when there is an outage in the communications link. MFP is a motion planning task concerned with finding a path between a designated start waypoint and goal waypoint. This path is described with a sequence of 4 Dimensional (4D) waypoints (three spatial and one time dimension) or equivalently with a sequence of trajectory segments (or tracks). It is necessary to consider the time dimension as the UAV operates in a dynamic environment. Existing methods for generic motion planning, UAV motion planning and general vehicle motion planning cannot adequately address the requirements of MFP. The flight plan needs to optimise for multiple decision objectives including mission safety objectives, the rules of the air and mission efficiency objectives. Online (in-flight) replanning capability is needed as the UAV operates in a large, dynamic and uncertain outdoor environment. This thesis derives a multi-objective 4D search algorithm entitled Multi- Step A* (MSA*) based on the seminal A* search algorithm. MSA* is proven to find the optimal (least cost) path given a variable successor operator (which enables arbitrary track angle and track velocity resolution). Furthermore, it is shown to be of comparable complexity to multi-objective, vector neighbourhood based A* (Vector A*, an extension of A*). A variable successor operator enables the imposition of a multi-resolution lattice structure on the search space (which results in fewer search nodes). Unlike cell decomposition based methods, soundness is guaranteed with multi-resolution MSA*. MSA* is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations to be computationally efficient. It is shown that multi-resolution, lattice based MSA* finds paths of equivalent cost (less than 0.5% difference) to Vector A* (the benchmark) in a third of the computation time (on average). This is the first contribution of the research. The second contribution is the discovery of the additive consistency property for planning with multiple decision objectives. Additive consistency ensures that the planner is not biased (which results in a suboptimal path) by ensuring that the cost of traversing a track using one step equals that of traversing the same track using multiple steps. MSA* mitigates uncertainty through online replanning, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and tolerance. Each trajectory segment is modeled with a cell sequence that completely encloses the trajectory segment. The tolerance, measured as the minimum distance between the track and cell boundaries, is the third major contribution. Even though MSA* is demonstrated for UAV MFP, it is extensible to other 4D vehicle motion planning applications. Finally, the research proposes a self-scheduling replanning architecture for MFP. This architecture replicates the decision strategies of human experts to meet the time constraints of online replanning. Based on a feedback loop, the proposed architecture switches between fast, near-optimal planning and optimal planning to minimise the need for hold manoeuvres. The derived MFP framework is original and shown, through extensive verification and validation, to satisfy the requirements of UAV MFP. As MFP is an enabling factor for operation of UAVs in the NAS, the presented work is both original and significant.
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Early and rich conversations with a range of stakeholders – academics, professionals and graduates in their early years of practice – quickly clarified that the singular challenge for most parties centres on the ways in which courses prepare graduates for the pace, diversity and flux of contemporary professional practice.---------In pursuing understanding of this central challenge this study has focused on new graduates in BED disciplines by canvassing their views and those of two other major stakeholder groups (academic staff and professional practitioners in the disciplines studied). The first crucial years of a young graduate’s life in the workforce are shaped by a number of factors including the quality of the transition-to-work experience. The quality of this life-shaping transition is dependent on a range of factors including the ways in which graduates are educated in universities, their personal developmental characteristics and those of the professional people around them and the preparedness of workplaces and other professional groups to guide new recruits through the transition experience. This study makes recommendations about how the variations in transition experience, resulting from the vagaries of all these factors across a range of worksites, may be better understood, perhaps normalised, and, at least, supported. . Early and rich conversations with a range of stakeholders – academics, professionals and graduates in their early years of practice – quickly clarified that the singular challenge for most parties centres on the ways in which courses prepare graduates for the pace, diversity and flux of contemporary professional practice. The study proceeded through literature review, focus group interviews, national online survey and workshops. Through all these methods a number of challenges and factors essential to the transition experience, and the quality of education which precedes it, were identified. Firstly the study found further evidence of the importance of higher-order graduate capabilities, namely, the development of judgment, critical enquiry and strategic thinking. Alongside these capabilities the importance of the development of emotional intelligence, particularly interpersonal and social skills, was stressed by all stakeholders. At the time of writing the global economic crisis was providing challenges to the sector and its young graduates. This phenomenon proved the value of the development of resilience and persistence in graduates, the education system was called upon by all stakeholders as a place where the future-proofing of neophytes would ensure that the unknown challenges of the future could also be confronted. The study found that the challenges of transition to work are best supported by authentic undergraduate experiences both on and off campus, inside and outside classrooms, and that commencing professional life is made easier for new graduates when university courses and workplace settings develop, sustain and support high standards and high expectations of students. All these findings indicate the importance of stakeholder expectations, roles and responsibilities in respect of the transition-to-work experience. Whilst full agreement about how these things should occur is not necessary, a process (amongst stakeholders) which seeks value alignment around transition through discussion, debate and agenda-setting would probably assist to address what is seen as a major challenge in built environment and design education.
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Purpose: First-eye cataract surgery can reduce the rate of falls among older adults, yet the effect of second-eye surgery on the rate of falling remains unclear. The present study investigated the effect of monocular and binocular simulated cataract blur on postural stability among older adults. Methods: Postural stability was assessed on 34 healthy older adults (mean 68.2 years, SD 3.5) with normal vision, using a portable force platform (BT4, HUR Labs, Finland) which collected data on centre of pressure (COP) displacement. Stability was assessed on firm and foam surfaces under four binocular viewing conditions using Vistech filters to simulate cataract blur: [1] best-corrected vision both eyes; [2] blur over non-dominant eye, [3] blur over dominant eye and [4] blur over both eyes. Binocular logMAR visual acuity, Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity and stereoacuity were also measured under these viewing conditions and ocular dominance measured using the hole-in-card test. Generalized estimating equations with an exchangeable correlation structure examined the effect of the surface and vision conditions on postural stability. Results: Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were significantly reduced under monocular and binocular cataract blur compared to normal viewing. All blur conditions resulted in loss of stereoacuity. Binocular cataract blur significantly reduced postural stability compared to normal vision on the firm (COP path length; p=0.013) and foam surface (anterior-posterior COP RMS, COP path length and COP area; p<0.01). However, no significant differences in postural stability were found between the monocular blur conditions compared to normal vision, or between the dominant and non-dominant monocular blur conditions on either the firm or foam surfaces. Conclusions: Findings indicate that binocular blur significantly impairs postural stability, and suggests that improvements in postural stability may justify first-eye cataract surgery, particularly during somatosensory disruption. Postural stability was not significantly impaired in the monocular cataract blur conditions compared to the normal vision condition, nor was there any effect of ocular dominance on postural stability in the presence of monocular cataract blur.
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A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.
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Background: Work-related injuries in Australia are estimated to cost around $57.5 billion annually, however there are currently insufficient surveillance data available to support an evidence-based public health response. Emergency departments (ED) in Australia are a potential source of information on work-related injuries though most ED’s do not have an ‘Activity Code’ to identify work-related cases with information about the presenting problem recorded in a short free text field. This study compared methods for interrogating text fields for identifying work-related injuries presenting at emergency departments to inform approaches to surveillance of work-related injury.---------- Methods: Three approaches were used to interrogate an injury description text field to classify cases as work-related: keyword search, index search, and content analytic text mining. Sensitivity and specificity were examined by comparing cases flagged by each approach to cases coded with an Activity code during triage. Methods to improve the sensitivity and/or specificity of each approach were explored by adjusting the classification techniques within each broad approach.---------- Results: The basic keyword search detected 58% of cases (Specificity 0.99), an index search detected 62% of cases (Specificity 0.87), and the content analytic text mining (using adjusted probabilities) approach detected 77% of cases (Specificity 0.95).---------- Conclusions The findings of this study provide strong support for continued development of text searching methods to obtain information from routine emergency department data, to improve the capacity for comprehensive injury surveillance.
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We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.
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This article uses critical discourse analysis to analyse material shifts in the political economy of communications. It examines texts of major corporations to describe four key changes in political economy: (1) the separation of ownership from control; (2) the separation of business from industry; (3) the separation of accountability from responsibility; and (4) the subjugation of ‘going concerns’ by overriding concerns. The authors argue that this amounts to a political economic shift from traditional concepts of ‘capitalism’ to a new ‘corporatism’ in which the relationships between public and private, state and individual interests have become redefined and obscured through new discourse strategies. They conclude that the present financial and regulatory ‘crisis’ cannot be adequately resolved without a new analytic framework for examining the relationships between corporation, discourse and political economy.
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Increasingly, major insurers and reinsurers are operating on a global basis. For example, General Re Corporation and Cologne Re operate in almost 150 countries : see "General Re Corporation 1999 Annual Report". This is also true for the world's major brokers, and the emergence of large broking conglomerates such as Aon and Marsh are good examples of global service providers. Against the background of this increasingly global insurance market with global participants, there are a range of common legal issues in this article but a selection of certain critical matters are canvassed in the secitons below. First there are a range of regulatory issues that must be addressed. Secondly globalisation of the industry does create added incentive for a common legal regime to cover the formation of insurance transactions and the resolution of disputes about claims, coverage and termination. In this contect codifcation of insurance laws is a critical issue. Thirdly, major advances in genetic research and biotechnology over recent years have resulted in a dramatic increase in the availability of genetic testing. These developments have given rise to concerns worldwide about the potential for misuse of genetic information by third parties such as insurers and employers. Fourthly, the essence of an insurance transaction is the transference of risk from one person to anther. It is generally accepted that this transference should occur in informed circumstances and without undue advantage being bestowed upon either party. Finally this article will consider some legal matter in relation to transacting insurance on the internet
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Background: Currently used Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients, which measure probability of survival (Ps), were derived from the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) in 1995 and are now unlikely to be optimal. This study aims to estimate new TRISS coefficients using a contemporary database of injured patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States; and to compare these against the MTOS coefficients.---------- Methods: Data were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the NTDB National Sample Project (NSP). TRISS coefficients were estimated using logistic regression. Separate coefficients were derived from complete case and multistage multiple imputation analyses for each NTDB and NSP dataset. Associated Ps over Injury Severity Score values were graphed and compared by age (adult ≥ 15 years; pediatric < 15 years) and injury mechanism (blunt; penetrating) groups. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was used to assess coefficients’ predictive performance.---------- Results: Overall 1,072,033 NTDB and 1,278,563 weighted NSP injury events were included, compared with 23,177 used in the original MTOS analyses. Large differences were seen between results from complete case and imputed analyses. For blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries, there were similarities between coefficients estimated on imputed samples, and marked divergences between associated Ps estimated and those from the MTOS. However, negligible differences existed between area under the receiver operating characteristic curves estimates because the overwhelming majority of patients had minor trauma and survived. For pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries, variability in coefficients was large and Ps estimates unreliable.---------- Conclusions: Imputed NTDB coefficients are recommended as the TRISS coefficients 2009 revision for blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries. Coefficients for pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries could not be reliably estimated.