Temperature monitoring of nonanaesthetised patients in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory

Aim and objectives To identify the prevalence that temperature reduced by more than 1°C from pre to post-procedure in a sample of non-anaesthetised patients undergoing procedures in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Background Advances in medical technology are minimising the invasiveness of diagnostic tests and treatments for disease, which is correspondingly increasing the number of medical procedures performed without sedation or anaesthesia. Procedural areas in which medical procedures are performed without anaesthesia are typically kept at a cool temperature for staff comfort. As such, there is a need to inform nursing practices in regard to the thermal management of non-anaesthetised patients undergoing procedures in surgical or procedural environments. Design Single-site observational study Methods Patients were included if they had undergone an elective procedure without sedation or anaesthesia in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Ambient room temperature was maintained between 18°C and 20°C. Passive warming with heated cotton blankets was applied. Nurses measured body temperature and thermal comfort before and after 342 procedures. Results Mean change in temperature was -0.08°C (Standard deviation 0.43). The reduction in temperature was more than 1°C after 11 procedures (3.2%). One patient whose temperature had reduced more than 1°C after their procedure reported thermal discomfort. A total of 12 patients were observed to be shivering post-procedure (3.6%). No demographic or clinical characteristics were associated with reduction in temperature of more than 1°C from pre to post-procedure. Conclusions Significant reduction in body temperature was rare in our sample of non-anaesthetised patients. Relevance to clinical practice Similar results would likely be found in other procedural contexts during procedures conducted in settings with comparable room temperatures where passive warming can also be applied with limited skin exposure.

Field Flow Sensitive Pointer and Escape Analysis for Java Using Heap Array SSA

Context sensitive pointer analyses based on Whaley and Lam’s bddbddb system have been shown to scale to large Java programs. We provide a technique to incorporate flow sensitivity for Java fields into one such analysis and obtain an escape analysis based on it. First, we express an intraprocedural field flow sensitive analysis, using Fink et al.’s Heap Array SSA form in Datalog. We then extend this analysis interprocedurally by introducing two new φ functions for Heap Array SSA Form and adding deduction rules corresponding to them. Adding a few more rules gives us an escape analysis. We describe two types of field flow sensitivity: partial (PFFS) and full (FFFS), the former without strong updates to fields and the latter with strong updates. We compare these analyses with two different (field flow insensitive) versions of Whaley-Lam analysis: one of which is flow sensitive for locals (FS) and the other, flow insensitive for locals (FIS). We have implemented this analysis on the bddbddb system while using the SOOT open source framework as a front end. We have run our analysis on a set of 15 Java programs. Our experimental results show that the time taken by our field flow sensitive analyses is comparable to that of the field flow insensitive versions while doing much better in some cases. Our PFFS analysis achieves average reductions of about 23% and 30% in the size of the points-to sets at load and store statements respectively and discovers 71% more “caller-captured” objects than FIS.

Measurements of Volatile Organic Compounds - from Biogenic Emissions to Concentrations in Ambient Air

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect atmospheric chemistry and thereafter also participate in the climate change in many ways. The long-lived greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone are the most important radiative forcing components warming the climate, while aerosols are the most important cooling component. VOCs can have warming effects on the climate: they participate in tropospheric ozone formation and compete for oxidants with the greenhouse gases thus, for example, lengthening the atmospheric lifetime of methane. Some VOCs, on the other hand, cool the atmosphere by taking part in the formation of aerosol particles. Some VOCs, in addition, have direct health effects, such as carcinogenic benzene. VOCs are emitted into the atmosphere in various processes. Primary emissions of VOC include biogenic emissions from vegetation, biomass burning and human activities. VOCs are also produced in secondary emissions from the reactions of other organic compounds. Globally, forests are the largest source of VOC entering the atmosphere. This thesis focuses on the measurement results of emissions and concentrations of VOCs in one of the largest vegetation zones in the world, the boreal zone. An automated sampling system was designed and built for continuous VOC concentration and emission measurements with a proton transfer reaction - mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). The system measured one hour at a time in three-hourly cycles: 1) ambient volume mixing-ratios of VOCs in the Scots-pine-dominated boreal forest, 2) VOC fluxes above the canopy, and 3) VOC emissions from Scots pine shoots. In addition to the online PTR-MS measurements, we determined the composition and seasonality of the VOC emissions from a Siberian larch with adsorbent samples and GC-MS analysis. The VOC emissions from Siberian larch were reported for the fist time in the literature. The VOC emissions were 90% monoterpenes (mainly sabinene) and the rest sesquiterpenes (mainly a-farnesene). The normalized monoterpene emission potentials were highest in late summer, rising again in late autumn. The normalized sesquiterpene emission potentials were also highest in late summer, but decreased towards the autumn. The emissions of mono- and sesquiterpenes from the deciduous Siberian larch, as well as the emissions of monoterpenes measured from the evergreen Scots pine, were well described by the temperature-dependent algorithm. In the Scots-pine-dominated forest, canopy-scale emissions of monoterpenes and oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) were of the same magnitude. Methanol and acetone were the most abundant OVOCs emitted from the forest and also in the ambient air. Annually, methanol and mixing ratios were of the order of 1 ppbv. The monoterpene and sum of isoprene 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) volume mixing-ratios were an order of magnitude lower. The majority of the monoterpene and methanol emissions from the Scots-pinedominated forest were explained by emissions from Scots pine shoots. The VOCs were divided into three classes based on the dynamics of the summer-time concentrations: 1) reactive compounds with local biological, anthropogenic or chemical sources (methanol, acetone, butanol and hexanal), 2) compounds whose emissions are only temperaturedependent (monoterpenes), 3) long-lived compounds (benzene, acetaldehyde). Biogenic VOC (methanol, acetone, isoprene MBO and monoterpene) volume mixing-ratios had clear diurnal patterns during summer. The ambient mixing ratios of other VOCs did not show this behaviour. During winter we did not observe systematical diurnal cycles for any of the VOCs. Different sources, removal processes and turbulent mixing explained the dynamics of the measured mixing-ratios qualitatively. However, quantitative understanding will require longterm emission measurements of the OVOCs and the use of comprehensive chemistry models. Keywords: Hydrocarbons, VOC, fluxes, volume mixing-ratio, boreal forest

Development and transient performance results of a single stage activated carbon - HFC 134a closed cycle adsorption cooling system

A laboratory model of a thermally driven adsorption refrigeration system with activated carbon as the adsorbent and 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC 134a) as the refrigerant was developed. The single stage compression system has an ensemble of four adsorbers packed with Maxsorb II specimen of activated carbon that provide a near continuous flow which caters to a cooling load of up to 5W in the 5-18 degrees C region. The objective was to utilise the low grade thermal energy to drive a refrigeration system that can be used to cool some critical electronic components. The laboratory model was tested for it performance at various cooling loads with the heat source temperature from 73 to 93 degrees C. The pressure transients during heating and cooling phases were traced. The cyclic steady state and transient performance data are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Peer-To-Peer Web Applications

As the virtual world grows more complex, finding a standard way for storing data becomes increasingly important. Ideally, each data item would be brought into the computer system only once. References for data items need to be cryptographically verifiable, so the data can maintain its identity while being passed around. This way there will be only one copy of the users family photo album, while the user can use multiple tools to show or manipulate the album. Copies of users data could be stored on some of his family members computer, some of his computers, but also at some online services which he uses. When all actors operate over one replicated copy of the data, the system automatically avoids a single point of failure. Thus the data will not disappear with one computer breaking, or one service provider going out of business. One shared copy also makes it possible to delete a piece of data from all systems at once, on users request. In our research we tried to find a model that would make data manageable to users, and make it possible to have the same data stored at various locations. We studied three systems, Persona, Freenet, and GNUnet, that suggest different models for protecting user data. The main application areas of the systems studied include securing online social networks, providing anonymous web, and preventing censorship in file-sharing. Each of the systems studied store user data on machines belonging to third parties. The systems differ in measures they take to protect their users from data loss, forged information, censorship, and being monitored. All of the systems use cryptography to secure names used for the content, and to protect the data from outsiders. Based on the gained knowledge, we built a prototype platform called Peerscape, which stores user data in a synchronized, protected database. Data items themselves are protected with cryptography against forgery, but not encrypted as the focus has been disseminating the data directly among family and friends instead of letting third parties store the information. We turned the synchronizing database into peer-to-peer web by revealing its contents through an integrated http server. The REST-like http API supports development of applications in javascript. To evaluate the platform’s suitability for application development we wrote some simple applications, including a public chat room, bittorrent site, and a flower growing game. During our early tests we came to the conclusion that using the platform for simple applications works well. As web standards develop further, writing applications for the platform should become easier. Any system this complex will have its problems, and we are not expecting our platform to replace the existing web, but are fairly impressed with the results and consider our work important from the perspective of managing user data.

Developing Peer-To-Peer Web Applications

As the virtual world grows more complex, finding a standard way for storing data becomes increasingly important. Ideally, each data item would be brought into the computer system only once. References for data items need to be cryptographically verifiable, so the data can maintain its identity while being passed around. This way there will be only one copy of the users family photo album, while the user can use multiple tools to show or manipulate the album. Copies of users data could be stored on some of his family members computer, some of his computers, but also at some online services which he uses. When all actors operate over one replicated copy of the data, the system automatically avoids a single point of failure. Thus the data will not disappear with one computer breaking, or one service provider going out of business. One shared copy also makes it possible to delete a piece of data from all systems at once, on users request. In our research we tried to find a model that would make data manageable to users, and make it possible to have the same data stored at various locations. We studied three systems, Persona, Freenet, and GNUnet, that suggest different models for protecting user data. The main application areas of the systems studied include securing online social networks, providing anonymous web, and preventing censorship in file-sharing. Each of the systems studied store user data on machines belonging to third parties. The systems differ in measures they take to protect their users from data loss, forged information, censorship, and being monitored. All of the systems use cryptography to secure names used for the content, and to protect the data from outsiders. Based on the gained knowledge, we built a prototype platform called Peerscape, which stores user data in a synchronized, protected database. Data items themselves are protected with cryptography against forgery, but not encrypted as the focus has been disseminating the data directly among family and friends instead of letting third parties store the information. We turned the synchronizing database into peer-to-peer web by revealing its contents through an integrated http server. The REST-like http API supports development of applications in javascript. To evaluate the platform s suitability for application development we wrote some simple applications, including a public chat room, bittorrent site, and a flower growing game. During our early tests we came to the conclusion that using the platform for simple applications works well. As web standards develop further, writing applications for the platform should become easier. Any system this complex will have its problems, and we are not expecting our platform to replace the existing web, but are fairly impressed with the results and consider our work important from the perspective of managing user data.

Hormones andCuscuta development: In vitro induction of haustoria by cytokinin and its inhibition by other hormones

Cytokinins induced haustoria formation in excised 10-mm segments ofCuscuta vine, the subapical 25-to-50-mm region being most responsive, producing a mean of 4–6 haustoria per segment. The order of effectiveness of cytokinins continuously applied (72 h) was 6-benzylaminopurine (BA) ges isopentenyladenine (iP) Gt zeatin (Z). Ribosides of BA and Z were as effective as the bases, whereas riboside of iP ([9R]iP) was half as effective as iP. Haustoria induction was influenced by weather and seasonal conditions at the time of vine collection; materials obtained on warm, sunny days responded better than those obtained on rainy, cloudy, or cool days. Haustoria were induced equally well all around the segment, and no thigmostimulus was needed for induction. p ]A 10-min pulse of 100 mgrM BA induced half as many haustoria as a 60-min pulse or continuous application of BA. White light inhibited haustoria induction elicited by a short (30-min) pulse of BA, whereas a longer (120-min) BA application overcame this light inhibition. Auxins (IAA or NAA, 1–10 mgrM), gibberellin (GA3, 1–10 mgrM), ethylene (as ethrel, 10–100 mgrM), and abscisic acid (ABA, 100 mgrM) were individually inhibitory (60–80%) with respect to haustoria induction when given continuously with 50 mgrM BA. A 60-min pulse of auxins (10 mgrM), GA3 (100 mgrM), or ethrel (10 mgrM), given at various time intervals during or after a 60-min pulse of 100 mgrM BA, showed that inhibition was maximal (70–95%) between 4 and 16 h of BA application and negligible (GA3) or much reduced (auxin, ethrel) at 20 h, indicating a ldquocommitmentrdquo to haustoria formation by this time.

Systems between information and knowledge : In a memory management model of an extended enterprise

The research question of this thesis was how knowledge can be managed with information systems. Information systems can support but not replace knowledge management. Systems can mainly store epistemic organisational knowledge included in content, and process data and information. Certain value can be achieved by adding communication technology to systems. All communication, however, can not be managed. A new layer between communication and manageable information was named as knowformation. Knowledge management literature was surveyed, together with information species from philosophy, physics, communication theory, and information system science. Positivism, post-positivism, and critical theory were studied, but knowformation in extended organisational memory seemed to be socially constructed. A memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) and knowformation concept were findings from iterative case studies, covering data, information and knowledge management systems. The cases varied from groups towards extended organisation. Systems were investigated, and administrators, users (knowledge workers) and managers interviewed. The model building required alternative sets of data, information and knowledge, instead of using the traditional pyramid. Also the explicit-tacit dichotomy was reconsidered. As human knowledge is the final aim of all data and information in the systems, the distinction between management of information vs. management of people was harmonised. Information systems were classified as the core of organisational memory. The content of the systems is in practice between communication and presentation. Firstly, the epistemic criterion of knowledge is not required neither in the knowledge management literature, nor from the content of the systems. Secondly, systems deal mostly with containers, and the knowledge management literature with applied knowledge. Also the construction of reality based on the system content and communication supports the knowformation concept. Knowformation belongs to memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) that is divided into horizontal and vertical key dimensions. Vertically, processes deal with content that can be managed, whereas communication can be supported, mainly by infrastructure. Horizontally, the right hand side of the model contains systems, and the left hand side content, which should be independent from each other. A strategy based on the model was defined.

Vision based indoor positioning in a retail environment

Modern smart phones often come with a significant amount of computational power and an integrated digital camera making them an ideal platform for intelligents assistants. This work is restricted to retail environments, where users could be provided with for example navigational in- structions to desired products or information about special offers within their close proximity. This kind of applications usually require information about the user's current location in the domain environment, which in our case corresponds to a retail store. We propose a vision based positioning approach that recognizes products the user's mobile phone's camera is currently pointing at. The products are related to locations within the store, which enables us to locate the user by pointing the mobile phone's camera to a group of products. The first step of our method is to extract meaningful features from digital images. We use the Scale- Invariant Feature Transform SIFT algorithm, which extracts features that are highly distinctive in the sense that they can be correctly matched against a large database of features from many images. We collect a comprehensive set of images from all meaningful locations within our domain and extract the SIFT features from each of these images. As the SIFT features are of high dimensionality and thus comparing individual features is infeasible, we apply the Bags of Keypoints method which creates a generic representation, visual category, from all features extracted from images taken from a specific location. A category for an unseen image can be deduced by extracting the corresponding SIFT features and by choosing the category that best fits the extracted features. We have applied the proposed method within a Finnish supermarket. We consider grocery shelves as categories which is a sufficient level of accuracy to help users navigate or to provide useful information about nearby products. We achieve a 40% accuracy which is quite low for commercial applications while significantly outperforming the random guess baseline. Our results suggest that the accuracy of the classification could be increased with a deeper analysis on the domain and by combining existing positioning methods with ours.

Crystal Chemistry of the Noncentrosymmetric Eulytites: A(3)Bi(XO4)(3) (X = V, A = Pb; X = P, A = Ca, Cd, Sr, Pb)

Eulytite compounds, A(3)Bi(XO4)(3) (X = P, A = Ca, Cd, Sr, Pb), belong to the noncentrosymmetric space group l (4) over bar 3d (No. 220) as determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies. The crystals were grown from the melt-cool technique with considerable difficulty as the compounds melt incongruently at their melting temperature, except for the compound Pb3Bi(PO4)(3). The unit cell parameter a is 9.984(5), 9.8611(3), 10.2035(3), and 10.3722(2) angstrom for Ca3Bi(PO4)(3), Cd3Bi(PO4)(3), Sr3Bi(PO4)(3), and Pb3Bi(PO4)(3) respectively, and there are four formula units in the unit cell. The structure of Pb3Bi(VO4)(3), a unique eulytite with vanadium substitution, is compared with all these phosphorus substituted eulytites. The A(2+) and Bi3+ cations occupy the special position (16c) while the O anions occupy the general Wyckoff position (48e) in the crystal structure. Only one O position has been identified for Pb3Bi(PO4)(3) and Pb3Bi(VO4)(3), whereas two O atom sites were identified for Ca3Bi(PO4)(3), Cd3Bi(PO4)(3), and Sr3Bi(PO4)(3). The UV-vis diffuse reflectance spectra indicate large band gaps for all the phosphate eulytites while a lower band gap is observed for the vanadate eulytite. The feasibility of the use of these compounds in optoelectronic devices has been tested by measuring the second-harmonic generation (SHG) values which have been found to be of a magnitude equivalent to the commercially used KDP (KH2PO4).

How do heterogametic females survive without gene dosage compensation?

When the male is the heterogametic sex (XX♀-XY♂ or XX♀-XO♂), as inDrosophila, orthopteran insects, mammals andCaenorhabditis elegans, X-linked genes are subject to dosage compensation: the single X in the male is functionally equivalent to the two Xs in the female. However, when the female is heterogametic (ZZ♂-ZW♀), as in birds, butterflies and moths, Z-linked genes are apparently not dosage-compensated. This difference between X-linked and Z-linked genes raises fundamental questions about the role of dosage compensation. It is argued that (i) genes which require dosage compensation are primarily those that control morphogenesis and the prospective body plan; (ii) the products of these genes are required in disomic doses especially during oogenesis and early embryonic development; (iii) heterogametic females synthesize and store during oogenesis itself morphogenetically essential gene products - including those encoded by Z-linked genes — in large quantities; (iv) the abundance of these gene products in the egg and their persistence relatively late into embryogenesis enables heterogametic females to overcome the monosomic state of the Z chromosome in ZW embryos. Female heterogamety is predominant in birds, reptiles and amphibians, all of which have megalecithal eggs containing several thousand times more maternal RNA and other maternal messages than eggs of mammals,Caenorhabditis elegans, orDrosophila. This increase in egg size, yolk content and, concomitantly, the size of the maternal legacy to the embryo, may have facilitated female heterogamety and the absence of dosage compensation.

A Hub System for Cloud-Computing Based Business-Collaboration: Automating Ontology-Enabled Electronic Business-Service Discovery

The management and coordination of business-process collaboration experiences changes because of globalization, specialization, and innovation. Service-oriented computing (SOC) is a means towards businessprocess automation and recently, many industry standards emerged to become part of the service-oriented architecture (SOA) stack. In a globalized world, organizations face new challenges for setting up and carrying out collaborations in semi-automating ecosystems for business services. For being efficient and effective, many companies express their services electronically in what we term business-process as a service (BPaaS). Companies then source BPaaS on the fly from third parties if they are not able to create all service-value inhouse because of reasons such as lack of reasoures, lack of know-how, cost- and time-reduction needs. Thus, a need emerges for BPaaS-HUBs that not only store service offers and requests together with information about their issuing organizations and assigned owners, but that also allow an evaluation of trust and reputation in an anonymized electronic service marketplace. In this paper, we analyze the requirements, design architecture and system behavior of such a BPaaS-HUB to enable a fast setup and enactment of business-process collaboration. Moving into a cloud-computing setting, the results of this paper allow system designers to quickly evaluate which services they need for instantiationg the BPaaS-HUB architecture. Furthermore, the results also show what the protocol of a backbone service bus is that allows a communication between services that implement the BPaaS-HUB. Finally, the paper analyzes where an instantiation must assign additional computing resources vor the avoidance of performance bottlenecks.

Early Growth and Later Health, Focus on Metabolic Syndrome, Obesity and Physical Activity

The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis proposes that adverse health outcomes in adult life are in part programmed during fetal life and infancy. This means that e.g. restricted nutrition during pregnancy programmes the offspring to store fat more effectively, to develop faster and to reach puberty earlier. These adaptations are beneficial in terms of short term survival. However, in developed countries these adaptations often lead to an increased risk of obesity and metabolic disturbances in later life, due to a mismatch between the prenatal and postnatal environment. This thesis aimed to study the role of early growth in people who are obese as adults, but metabolically healthy as well as in those who are normal in weight but metabolically obese. Other study aims were to assess whether physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness are programmed early in life. The role of socioeconomic status in the development of obesity from a life course setting was also studied. These studies included 2003 men and women born in Helsinki between 1934 and 1944 with detailed information of their prenatal and childhood growth as well as living conditions. They participated in the detailed clinical examination during the years 2001-2004. A sub-group of the subjects participated in the UKK Institute 2-kilometre walk test. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the 2005 criteria of the International Diabetes Federation. Among the obese men and women 20 % were metabolically healthy. Those with metabolic syndrome did not differ in birth size compared to the healthy ones, but by two years of age, they were lighter and thinner, and remained so up to 11 years. The period when changes in BMIs were predictive of the metabolic syndrome was from birth to 7 years. Of the normal weight individuals 17 % were metabolically obese. Again, there were no differences in birth size. However, by the age 7 years, those men who later developed metabolic syndrome were thinner. Gains in BMI during the first two years of life were protective of the syndrome. Children who were heavier, and especially taller, were more physically active, exercised with higher intensity and had higher cardiorespiratory fitness in their adult life than those who were shorter and thinner as children. Lower educational attainment and lower adult social class were associated with obesity in both men and women. Childhood social class was inversely associated with body mass index only in men while lower household income was associated with higher BMI in women. These results support the role of early life factors in the development of metabolic syndrome and adult life style. Early detection of risk factors predisposing to these conditions is highly relevant from a public health point of view.

Cooling of an infinite slab in a two-fluid medium

A mixed boundary-valued problem associated with the diffusion equation, that involves the physical problem of cooling of an infinite slab in a two-fluid medium, is solved completely by using the Wiener-Hopf technique. An analytical solution is derived for the temperature distribution at the quench fronts being created by two different layers of cold fluids having different cooling abilities moving on the upper surface of the slab at constant speed. Simple expressions are derived for the values of the sputtering temperatures of the slab at the points of contact with the respective layers, assuming one layer of the fluid to be of finite extent and the other of infinite extent. The main problem is solved through a three-part Wiener - Hopf problem of a special type, and the numerical results under certain special circumstances are obtained and presented in the form of a table.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.