Macroeconomic policy and poverty in Brazil

O Brasil é um país onde os 50% mais pobres se apropriam aproximadamente de 10% da renda agregada, e os 10% mais ricos detêm quase 50% deste mesmo. O colorário desse alto grau de desigualdade é que se uma pessoa está somente preocupada em maximizar o nível de GPD, a função de bem–estar social implícita adotada devota parte do seu peso ao bem-estar de 10% da população. Em outras palavras, a concentração brasileira de renda cria uma anomalia dentro da perspectiva de agente representativo implícito na análise macroeconômica aonde as pessoas valem aquilo que ganham. A análise da pobreza inverte esse peso estrutural da população, estipulando zero de peso para o segmento não pobre da sociedade e atribuindo pesos aos indivíduos que aumentam com suas necessidades insatisfeitas. Esse projeto estuda as conexões entre a evolução macroeconômica Brasileira recente e da pobreza. A análise é dividida em duas partes: A primeira parte descreve a evolução da pobreza brasileira e seus principais determinantes macroeconômicos durante os últimos 15 anos. A segunda parte tira proveito das mudanças da pobreza e desigualdades medidas durante o período 1993-96 para estudar seus principais determinantes macroeconômicos. Dado a maior importância do Plano Real, uma especial atenção foi dada a análise dos impactos da desinflação no nível e na distribuição de renda e a possível sinergia entre essas duas dimensões de determinação da pobreza. A terceira parte do projeto decompõe as mudanças dos diversos índices de pobreza através dos diferentes grupos dado pelas características dos chefes de família (i.e.; sexo, anos de estudo, raça, classe trabalhadora, setores de atividades, região, densidade populacional). Depois essa decomposição é avançada um passo desatrelando as mudanças nessa diferentes células de pobreza em termos de suas respectivas mudanças em termos de desigualdade da renda per capita. Esse perfil de pobreza ajuda a mapear as diferentes fontes de mudança da pobreza na análise histórica e fornece consistência interna para os exercícios de análises contra-factuais.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. A Monte Carlo study explores the finite sample performance of this procedure and evaluates the forecasting accuracy of models selected by this procedure. Two empirical applications confirm the usefulness of the model selection procedure proposed here for forecasting.

The time consistency of the Friedman rule

We consider the problem of time consistency of the Ramsey monetary and fiscal policies in an economy without capital. Following Lucas and Stokey (1983) we allow the government at date t to leave its successor at t + 1 a profile of real and nominal debt of all maturities, as a way to influence its decisions. We show that the Ramsey policies are time consistent if and only if the Friedman rule is the optimal Ramsey policy.

Informational synergies in consumer credit

Lenders can tap into multiple sources of private information to assess consumer credit risk but little is known about the informational synergies between these sources. Using unique panel data on checking accounts and credit card accounts from the same customers during 2007-2014, we find that activity measures from both account types contain information beyond credit scores and other controls. Checking accounts display warning indications earlier and more accurately than credit card accounts. We also investigate the consistency of information, the reasons for defaults, and selection effects. The evidence highlights sizeable informational synergies that lenders can use to manage credit relationships.

Financial guarantees in Brazilian life insurance and pension plans

Recently regulated Brazilian life and pension products offer a benefit structure composed of minimum guaranteed annual rate, in°ation adjustment according to a price index and participation on an investment fund performance. We present a valuation model for these products. We establish a fair condition relationship between minimum guarantees and participation rates, and explore its behavior over a space of maturities, interest rates, and also fund and price index volatilities and correlation. Besides consistency to reference models, we found that the effect of the fund volatility is conditioned to the price index volatility level and the correlation between them.

Argumentative systems in robots

Nowadays, the development of intelligent agents intends to be more refined, using improved architectures and reasoning mechanisms. Revise the beliefs of an agent is also an important subject, due to the consistency that agents should have about their knowledge. In this work we propose deliberative and argumentative agents using Lego Mindstorms robots, Argumentative NXT BDI-like Agents. These agents are built using the notions of the BDI model and they are capable to reason using the DeLP formalism. They update their knowledge base with their perceptions and revise it when necessary. Two variations are presented: the Single Argumentative NXT BDI-like Agent and the MAS Argumentative NXT BDI-like Agent.

Source populations in coastal crabs: parameters affecting egg production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Frequency of Blastocystis hominis and other intestinal parasites in stool samples examined at the Parasitology Laboratory of the School of Pharmaceutical Sciences at the São Paulo State University, Araraquara

Blastocystis hominis é um protozoário, causador de infecção intestinal denominada blastocistose humana, cujo diagnóstico é realizado pelo exame coproparasitológico e por meio de técnicas de coloração permanente. Este estudo foi desenvolvido para avaliar a freqüência da infecção por Blastocystis hominis em habitantes da região de Araraquara/SP, bem como comparar diferentes métodos para a pesquisa desse protozoário em amostras de fezes. Foram estudadas 503 amostras de fezes submetidas ao exame direto a fresco, às técnicas de Faust e cols, Lutz e de Rugai e cols, além das colorações pela hematoxilina férrica, tricrômio e de Kinyoun modificada. Entre as 503 amostras examinadas, 174 (34,6%) apresentaram-se positivas para a presença de parasitas intestinais. O protozoário e o helminto mais freqüentes foram Entamoeba coli (14,6%) e Strongyloides stercoralis (6,7%), respectivamente. Blastocystis hominis foi observado em 23 (4,6%) amostras fecais com consistência predominantemente pastosa, não caracterizando quadro diarréico. Apesar da baixa freqüência de Blastocystis hominis encontrada na região de Araraquara, comparativamente a outras regiões brasileiras, é importante a realização do diagnóstico laboratorial desse protozoário. O encontro de Blastocystis hominis em material fecal é indicativo de contaminação de alimentos e água de consumo, desde que se admita a rota de transmissão oral-fecal desse parasita, o que implica na orientação da população sobre as medidas de saneamento básico e higiene como meio para se controlar problemas de saúde ocasionados pelos enteroparasitas.

Cranial osteology and systematic implications in Crotophaginae (Aves, Cuculidae)

Recognizing the scarcity of anatomical and phylogenetic studies on Crotophaginae, the authors set Out to add to the anatomical knowledge of the group based on a detailed description of cranial osteology. Another objective was to verify whether this source of data could be used to infer relationships by performing the first cladistic analysis of the four species of Crotophaginae. The shortest-length cladogram (consistency index = 1.0) indicated that cranial osteology is an important source of characters for cladistic analysis of cuckoos. The findings corroborated the monophyly of Crotophaginae, showing that Guira guira is (lie most divergent and plesiomorphic taxon and that Crotophaga ani and Crotophaga sulcirostris are more closely related to each other than to Crotophaga major.

Recalled and recorded bowel habits confirm early onset and high frequency of constipation in day-care nursery children

CONTEXTO: Mães relatam início precoce de constipação em crianças atendidas em clínicas de gastroenterologia. OBJETIVOS: Estudar o hábito intestinal em crianças de baixa idade na comunidade, para avaliar se início precoce da constipação é confirmado neste contexto e se há concordância entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado prospectivamente. MÉTODOS: Obtiveram-se dados sobre evacuações de 57 crianças com idade 6.0-40.7 meses, mediante relato materno (questionário sobre características fecais predominantes) e, a seguir, foram registradas 1.934 evacuações em casa e na creche. O hábito intestinal foi classificado como adequado, constipação, diarréia funcional, outro hábito intestinal, conforme frequência evacuatória e proporção das características fecais (macias, duras e/ou que escorrem). Usaram-se dois critérios para classificar o hábito intestinal registrado, devido indefinição no ponto de corte para fezes duras na identificação de constipação em crianças: critério predominante e critério adulto, respectivamente com >50% e >25% de evacuações com consistência alterada. Usou-se estatística não-paramétrica e, para concordância entre hábito intestinal relatado e registrado, o índice Kappa. RESULTADOS: Constipação ocorreu em 17.5%, 10.5%, 19.3% das crianças, respectivamente pelo relato e pelo registro segundo critérios predominante e adulto. Constipação foi o hábito intestinal mais frequentemente relatado, versus 12.3% outro hábito intestinal. Só uma criança se classificou como tendo diarréia funcional (pelo critério adulto). Concordância entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado foi razoável (fair) para constipação, pelos critérios predominante e adulto (K=0.28 e 0.24, respectivamente), mas apenas leve (slight) para os demais hábito intestinal (K <0.16). Entretanto, dados individuais indicaram melhor relação entre relato de constipação com o critério adulto do que com o critério predominante. CONCLUSÕES: Confirmou-se que constipação é frequente e de início precoce. Concordância razoável entre o hábito intestinal relatado e o registrado segundo os dois critérios indica que o relato materno é razoavelmente confiável para detectar constipação.

A new short and simple health-related quality of life measurement for paediatric rheumatic diseases: initial validation in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective. To develop and validate a new short and simple measure of health-related quality of life (HRQL) in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).Methods. The Paediatric Rheumatology Quality of Life Scale (PRQL) is a 10-item questionnaire that explores HRQL in two domains: physical health (PhH) and psychosocial health (PsH). Validation of the parent proxy report and child self-report versions of the instrument was accomplished by evaluating 472 JIA patients and similar to 800 healthy children. Validation analyses included assessment of feasibility, face and content validity; construct and discriminative ability; internal structure and consistency; test-retest reliability; responsiveness to clinical change; and minimal clinically important difference.Results. The PRQL was found to be feasible and to possess both face and content validity. The PRQL score correlated in the predicted range with most of the other JIA outcome measures, thereby demonstrating good construct validity, and discriminated well between different levels of disease severity. Assessment of internal structure (factor analysis) revealed that the PhH and PsH subscales identify two unambiguously separated domains. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) was 0.86. The intraclass correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability was 0.91. The PRQL revealed fair responsiveness, with a standardized response mean of 0.67 in improved patients. Overall, the PRQL appeared to be more able to capture physical HRQL than psychosocial HRQL.Conclusion. The PRQL was found to possess good measurement properties and is, therefore, a valid instrument for the assessment of HRQL in children with JIA. This tool is primarily proposed for use in standard clinical care.

Refinement and initial validation of a multidimensional composite scale for use in assessing acute postoperative pain in cats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uncommon mandibular osteomyelitis in a cat caused by Nocardia africana

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In vitro evaluation of conventional and locking miniplate/screw systems for the treatment of mandibular angle fractures

This in vitro study evaluated the influence of the type of miniplate and the number of screws installed in the proximal and distal segments on the stability and resistance of Champy's osteosynthesis in mandibular angle fractures. Sixty polyurethane hemimandibles with bone-like consistency were randomly assigned to four groups (n = 15) and sectioned in the mandibular angle region to simulate fracture. The bone segments were fixed by different osteosynthesis methods using 2.0 mm miniplates and 2.0 mm x 6 mm rnonocortical screws. In groups 1 and 2, two conventional (G1) or locking (G2) screws were installed in each bone segment using a conventional (G1) or a locking (02) straight miniplate; in groups 3 and 4, three conventional (03) or locking (04) screws were installed in the proximal segment and four conventional (G3) or locking (04) screws were installed in the distal segment using a conventional (G3) or a locking (G4) seven-hole straight miniplate. The hemimandibles were loaded in compressive strength until a 4 mm displacement occurred between the segments, vertically or horizontally. Locking plate/screw systems provided significantly greater resistance to displacement than conventional ones (p < .01). Locking miniplates offered more resistance than conventional miniplates. Long locking miniplates provided greater stability than short ones.

In Vitro Biomechanical Evaluation of the Use of Conventional and Locking Miniplate/Screw Systems for Sagittal Split Ramus Osteotomy

Purpose: The aim of this in vitro study was to assess the biomechanical stability of 9 different osteosynthesis methods after sagittal split ramus osteotomy by simulating the masticatory forces and using a 3-point biomechanical test method.Materials and Methods: Forty-five polyurethane hemimandibles with bone-like consistency were randomly assigned to 9 groups (n = 5) and subjected to sagittal split ramus osteotomy. After 4-mm advancement of the distal segment, the bone segments were fixed by different osteosynthesis methods using 2.0-mm miniplate/screw systems: group A, one 4-hole conventional straight miniplate; group B, one 4-hole locking straight miniplate; group C, one 4-hole conventional miniplate and one bicortical screw; group D, one 4-hole locking miniplate and 1 bicortical screw; group E, one 6-hole conventional straight miniplate; group F, one 6-hole locking straight miniplate; group (3: two 4-hole conventional straight miniplates; group H. two 4-hole locking straight miniplates; and group 1, 3 bicortical screws in an inverted-L. pattern. All models were mounted on a base especially constructed for this purpose. Using a 3-point biomechanical test model, the hemimandibles were loaded in compressive strength in an Instron machine (Norwood, MA) until a 3-mm displacement occurred between segments vertically or horizontally. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance and Tukey test (alpha = 1%).Results: The multiparametric comparison of the groups showed a statistically significant difference (P<.01) between groups that used 2 miniplates (groups G and H), 1 miniplate and 1 bicortical screw (groups C and D), and only bicortical screws (group D compared with groups that used only 1 miniplate with 2 screws per segment (groups A and B) and 3 screws per segment (groups E and F).Conclusion: The placement of 2.0-mm-diameter bicortical screws in the retromolar region, associated or not with conventional and locking miniplates with monocortical screws, promoted a better stabilization of bone segments. Locking miniplates presented a better performance in bone fixation in all groups. (C) 2010 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 68:724-730, 2010