Optimal-state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflationary inertia

This paper examines the output losses caused by disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing mIes are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing mIes and credibility is essential in determining the inflationary inertia. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired leveIs than prices that are substantially higher than the optimal ones. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfect1y credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviation distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be sucessful even when credibility is low, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.

Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the interplay between fiscal rules, public investment and growth in Brazil. It is investigated if it would make sense to raise public investment and, if so, under which fiscal rule it is best to do it — whether through tax financing, debt financing, or a reduction of public consumption. We construct and simulate a competitive general equilibrium model, calibrated to Brazilian economy, in which public capital is a component of the production function and public consumption directly affects individuals’ well-being. After assessing the impacts of alternative fiscal rules, the paper concludes that the most desirable financing scheme is the reduction of public consumption, which dominates the others in terms of output and welfare gains. The model replicates the observed growth slowdown of the Brazilian economy when we increase taxes and reduce public capital formation to the levels observed after 1980 and shows that the growth impact of the expansion of tax collection in Brazil was much larger than that of public investment compression.

Decision rules and information provision : monitoring vs manipulation

We analyze the contractual design problem of a principal who delegates decision-making and information provision. The principal faces two tasks: he has to decide the level of discretion to be granted to the decision-maker and to establish who is in charge of supplying the information. We show that these two choices are intrinsically related. When the decision-maker is granted high discretion, information provision is optimally delegated to the parties directly affected by the decision. Conversely, when the decision-maker enjoys little discretion, it is more desirable to rely on a third impartial agent. The paper helps rationalize some organizational arrangements that are commonly observed in the context of judicial and antitrust decision-making.

Robustness and stabilization properties of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy's state variables, as suggested by Brainard's "conservatism principIe", although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule's robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robusto We also fmd that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker' s loss distribution function.

Rules of origin: an unfinished negotiation

Many countries are also engaged in trade negotiations on FTAs. RO are a central theme on each of theses fronts. A detailed analysis of the key questions surrounding the harmonization process is compelling, given that RO talks at the WTO will affect the negotiation of FTAs. Many developing countries are waiting the results from WTO to define their own RO. Since the impasse continues, they are creating their own systems and multiplying different ROs to satisfy their needs. This article seeks to provide some clues why it was impossible, till now, to finish this multilateral negotiation. It is organized as follows: i) review of the main issues in the ARO; ii) present the main points of contention in the harmonization work; iii) analyze the implications of a harmonized system of rules of origin to the other major WTO agreements as well as to other national trade policy instruments; and to present some possible scenarios how to conclude the negotiation

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

Conselho Municipal de Saúde de Pedras de Fogo - PB: um estudo sobre participação

The present study aims to understand the process of Participation of the Health Council- CMS in the formularization, implementation and control of the Municipal health plan of Pedras de Fogo, through four criteria of quality of participation considered by Demo (1993): representation, legitimacy, base participation, and self-responsibility. The criteria of representation is related to the quality of politics of the representative over the representings. Legitimacy is related to the politics` quality of the process of participation based on norms and rules that stipulate the participation, the base participation is a necessary political support so that the power authorization directed to the representings can be effective and the self-responsibility refers to the capacity of being responsible when it concerns to the public service or property. Through the descriptive and exploratory study a qualitative method was adopted to consider the conditions of the participation of the twelve council members of the City council of Health of Pedras de Fogo, through a formulated Instrument based on the criteria of DEMO (1993). It was concluded that the quality of the participation of the council members of the CMS of Pedras de Fogo understands essential aspects of the criteria of quality considered by Demo (1993) but it shows fragilities as unfamiliarity with the norms that legitimize the performance of the council; unfamiliarity of its condition of being an agent and the importance of the participation of the base for the reinforcement of its participation, as well as inertia related to the check and rendering of accounts on its performance. This way it makes sense that the participation of the council in the four criteria of quality of politics considered in this paper needs to improve

Distribuição regional da ventilação pulmonar em indivíduos com insuficiência cardíaca crônica após serem submetidos a um programa de treinamento da musculatura inspiratória e sua correlação com dados funcionais

Introduction: Chagas Disease is a serious public health problem, with 5 million infected individuals in Brazil. Of these, approximately 30% develop chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC), where the main symptoms are fatigue and dyspnea. Objective: To correlate maximal exercise capacity with pulmonary function, inspiratory muscle strength and quality of life in patients with CCC. Methodology: Twelve individuals suffering from CCC were evaluated (7 men), with a mean age of 54.91± 8.60 years and the following inclusion criteria: functional class II and III according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA); left ventricle ejection fraction below 45%; clinical stability (> 3 months); symptom duration > 1 year, body mass index (BMI) < 35Kg/m2 and non-smokers or ex-smokers with a history of smoking <10 packs/day. All subjects were submitted to spirometry, manometer testing, maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) and a quality of life questionnaire (Minnesota). Results: A negative correlation was observed between VO2máx and MLHFQ scores (r=-0.626; p=0.03) and a positive association with MIP (r=0.713; p=0.009). Positive correlations were also recorded between MIP and spirometric variables [FEV1(r=0.825;p=0.001 ), FVC(r=0.66;p=0.01 and FEF25-75%(r=0.639;p=0.02)]. Conclusion: The present study demonstrated that in patients with CCC: VO2MAX is directly related to inspiratory muscle strength and quality of life, while deteriorating lung function is directly associated with respiratory muscle weakness

Trabalho, pobreza e caridade: as ações do Padre Ibiapina nos sertões do Nordeste

This work started from an investigation concerning the process of education, moralization and disciplining of the poor in the backlands of the Brazilian Northeast region, in the second half of the 19th century, through the incorporation of the values of productive work. In order to do so, we took as our field of investigation the missions of Father José Antônio Pereira Ibiapina (1806-1883), in which an extensive work was developed, including the construction of twenty two (22) charity houses in the States of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Ceará e Piauí, but also of weirs, churches, graveyards, hospitals and so forth. Given the socio-historical character of the research, we adopted qualitative methods of analysis and the following procedures: survey and analysis of documents, statute and internal rules that ordered the workings of the charity houses; biographies on Father Ibiapina and the missions‟ reports, as well as various sorts of publications on the missionary. Our study comprises his 27 year-period of missionary-religious activity (1856-1883), and undertakes an analysis on the topic of poverty, since the medieval Christian take on it until modernity, when it stops representing a value and becomes a problem to be solved through work. The socio-political context in which Ibiapina lived in the Northeast was marked by the consequence of droughts and economic crises in the region. The analysis of the documents indicates that, in the circumstances of political weakness and lack of interest for regional demands by the national political agenda, his missionary actions produced strong effects. Starting from an ethics of valorization of work, which combined modern and traditional elements, his actions set up disciplinary, moralizing and civil educational practices of the poor, founding, simultaneously, a pragmatic religious experience directed at the resolution of the problems caused by poverty. In that sense, we observe that such actions are connected to the broader process of moralization and education of the poor, but the analysis also suggests that their inscription into the social order articulated both forward as well as conservative aspects of the established system

Produção de mudas de caramboleiras 'B-10' e 'Golden Star': II - marcha de absorção e acúmulo de nutrientes

A participação do Brasil no mercado externo de frutas tem aumentado consideravelmente e com potencial para crescer ainda mais. A constante ascensão dos dados de exportação brasileira é resultado da combinação de avanços tecnológicos do setor produtivo e de acesso a novos mercados consumidores. A caramboleira apresenta-se como uma excelente opção de cultivo de frutas exóticas, com grande potencial para atender ao mercado interno e às exportações. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar a marcha de absorção e de acúmulo de nutrientes em mudas de caramboleiras cultivadas em solução nutritiva. O experimento foi realizado em parcelas subdivididas, sendo utilizadas como parcela as duas cultivares de caramboleira ('B-10' e 'Golden Star') e, como subparcelas, cinco épocas de coleta de plantas, realizadas aos 208; 233; 258; 283 e 308 dias após o transplantio para a solução nutritiva. O delineamento foi inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições. As mudas foram cultivadas em vasos (8L) com solução nutritiva (pH=5,5 ± 0,5), com aeração. O experimento iniciou-se em 24-08-2005. Nos diferentes órgãos das mudas (folhas, caule e raízes), determinaram-se a marcha de absorção, o acúmulo de nutrientes e os índices nutricionais. Não houve diferenças no acúmulo de nutrientes entre as mudas de caramboleira de ambas as cultivares, sendo a ordem decrescente dos nutrientes em cada muda de 'B-10', no final do período experimental: N > K > Ca > Mg > S > P > Fe > Mn > B > Cu > Zn. Para a 'Golden Star', a ordem foi: N > K > Ca > Mg > P > S > Fe > Mn > B > Cu > Zn. Para as duas cultivares, o acúmulo médio foi maior nas folhas > caule > raízes. O período de maior exigência para 'B-10' foi entre 208 - 233 e, para 'Golden Star', entre 233 - 283 dias após o transplantio. As diferentes taxas de acumulação líquida dos nutrientes, nos diferentes órgãos da caramboleira, nem sempre acompanharam a taxa de acumulação de nutrientes do respectivo órgão.

Produção de mudas de caramboleiras 'B-10' e 'Golden Star': I - parâmetros biológicos

O Brasil é um dos maiores produtores de carambola do mundo, entretanto há poucas informações científicas, especialmente estudos de nutrição mineral com mudas dessa frutífera. Objetivando contribuir com o conhecimento desse importante aspecto, desenvolveu-se estudo que permitisse avaliar o crescimento e o acúmulo de nutrientes em mudas de caramboleiras, cultivadas em solução nutritiva. O experimento foi realizado em parcelas subdivididas, sendo utilizadas como parcela as duas cultivares de caramboleira ('B-10' e 'Golden Star') e, como subparcelas, as cinco épocas de coleta de plantas, realizadas aos 208; 233; 258; 283 e 308 dias após o transplantio para a solução nutritiva. O delineamento foi inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições. As mudas foram cultivadas em vasos (8L) com solução nutritiva (pH=5,5 ± 0,5), com aeração. O experimento iniciou-se em 24-08-2005. Nos diferentes órgãos das mudas (folhas, caule e raízes), avaliaram-se o crescimento e o acúmulo de nutrientes, e os índices nutricionais. Não houve diferenças no crescimento e, em geral, no acúmulo da massa da matéria seca entre as duas cultivares. Houve acúmulo linear da massa da matéria seca das mudas de caramboleira com o tempo de cultivo, sendo maior nas folhas > caule > raízes. O período de maior acúmulo da massa de matéria seca e da taxa de crescimento relativo na planta inteira esteve compreendido entre 208 - 233 e 233 - 258 dias após o transplantio para a 'B-10' e a 'Golden Star', respectivamente.

Postharvest quality of twelve onion cultivars grown in the Southeast of Brazil

Onions (Allium cepa L.) are grown in different parts of the Brazilian territory and are considered the third most important vegetable crop cultivated in the country, only behind potatoes and tomatoes. The present work was carried out aiming to evaluate the postharvest quality of twelve different onion cultivars grown in the Southeast of Brazil. Onions of the cultivars; 'Adocicada', 'Branca', 'Picante' and 'Roxa' were harvested in commercial fields and the cultivars 'Princesa', 'Serrana', 'Bulbo duplo', 'Granex 33', 'XP 6803', 'XP 8418', 'RP 6010' and 'Superex' were obtained in experimental fields. After harvest, bulbs were taken to the postharvest laboratory and evaluated for total soluble solids, titratable acidity, and pungency (aliinase activity). For total soluble solids 'Superex' had the lowest sugar content (5.4 degrees Brix) whereas the cultivar named 'Picante' showed the highest Brix (11.0 degrees Brix) among the studied materials. For titratable acidity, it was verified that 'Serrana' had the lowest acid content (0.094 g piruvic acid.100 g(-1) FW) whereas 'Branca' showed the highest content of organic acids. When pungency was evaluated it was verified that aliinase activity varied from 1.37 pg piruvic acid.100 g(-1) FW for 'Adocicada' to 12.18 mu g piruvic acid.100 g(-1) FW for 'Roxa', which was considered to have hot pungency (high alliinase activity and low TSS/TA), whereas 'Bulbo duplo' was evaluated as pungent (high alliinase activity and TSS/TA). The combination of the studied characteristics indicated that an onion with high pungency must have high aliinase activity and titratable acidity, whereas sweet onions shall have high soluble solids contents and low aliinase activity. Based on this information, 'Branca' bulbs were considered acids (weak pungency and high acidity), whereas 'Adocicada', 'Princesa', and 'Serrana' bulbs are sweet, due to low alliinase activity and titratable acidity. 'Superex', 'XP 6803', 'Granex 33' and 'Picante' had a moderately pungent flavor (alliinase activity intermediate and low TSS/TA), but 'XP 8418' and 'RP 6010' flavor was evaluated as lightly pungent (low alliinase activity TSS/TA).

Short terms effects of air pollution from biomass burning in mucociliary clearance of Brazilian sugarcane cutters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mucociliary clearance and its relation with the level of physical activity in daily life in healthy smokers and nonsmokers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)