The management of innovation under ambiguity

De récents développements en théorie de la decision ont largement enrichi notre connaissance de la notion d'incertitude knightienne, usuellement appelée ambiguïté. Néanmoins ces dévelopement tardent à être intégrés au coeur de la théorie économique. Nous suggérons que l'analyse de phénonèmes économiques tel que l'innovation et la Recherche et Développement gagnerait à intégrer les modèles de décision en situation d'ambiguïté. Nous étayons notre propos en analysant l'allocation des droits de propriété d'une découverte. Les deux premières parties de la présentation s'inspire d'un modèle d'Aghion et de Tirole, The Management of Innovation, portant sur l'allocation des droits de propriété entre une unité de recherche et un investisseur. Il est démontré qu'un désaccord entre les agents sur la technologie de recherche affecte leur niveau d'effort, l'allocation des droits de propriété et l'allocation des revenus subséquents. Finalement, nous examinons une situation où plusieurs chercheurs sont en compétition en s'inspirant du traitement de l'incertitude de Savage. La présence d'ambuïgité affecte le comportement des agents et l'allocation des droits de propriétés de manière qui n'est pas captée en assumant l'hypothèse de risque.

District Level Planning In Kerala And Karnataka - A Comparative Study

When we consider Kerala and Karnataka States according to their levels of decentralisation. Kerala is at the beginning of the scale of decentralisation whereas Kamataka has moved far ahead along this scale. Therefore I in order to conduct a comparative study of the SUbject under analysis t Kamataka has been selected owing to the fact that it is in an advanced stage in the experience of district planning compared to Kerala , Karnataka could successfully implement district planning and it is me of the pioneering states in this regard. But Kerala has not gained much experience in the field of decentralised district planning till now. Furthermore Kerala and Kamataka states are selected for the present study due to operational reasons I besides the author I s familiarity with the socia-economic conditions of these states. Thus. an analysis of the district planning experience of Kamataka will provide constructive and valuable information. which will be of great importance to Kerala State, which is now aspiring to introduce ful.I-f'Iedge district planning by constituting elected District Coancils in every district of Kerala. Moreover. the findings and policy implications of the present study will be of immense help to planners, politicians. administrators, academicians and people at large.

A study on the performance of flexible pavements on mature soil subgrades

The country has witnessed tremendous increase in the vehicle population and increased axle loading pattern during the last decade, leaving its road network overstressed and leading to premature failure. The type of deterioration present in the pavement should be considered for determining whether it has a functional or structural deficiency, so that appropriate overlay type and design can be developed. Structural failure arises from the conditions that adversely affect the load carrying capability of the pavement structure. Inadequate thickness, cracking, distortion and disintegration cause structural deficiency. Functional deficiency arises when the pavement does not provide a smooth riding surface and comfort to the user. This can be due to poor surface friction and texture, hydro planning and splash from wheel path, rutting and excess surface distortion such as potholes, corrugation, faulting, blow up, settlement, heaves etc. Functional condition determines the level of service provided by the facility to its users at a particular time and also the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC), thus influencing the national economy. Prediction of the pavement deterioration is helpful to assess the remaining effective service life (RSL) of the pavement structure on the basis of reduction in performance levels, and apply various alternative designs and rehabilitation strategies with a long range funding requirement for pavement preservation. In addition, they can predict the impact of treatment on the condition of the sections. The infrastructure prediction models can thus be classified into four groups, namely primary response models, structural performance models, functional performance models and damage models. The factors affecting the deterioration of the roads are very complex in nature and vary from place to place. Hence there is need to have a thorough study of the deterioration mechanism under varied climatic zones and soil conditions before arriving at a definite strategy of road improvement. Realizing the need for a detailed study involving all types of roads in the state with varying traffic and soil conditions, the present study has been attempted. This study attempts to identify the parameters that affect the performance of roads and to develop performance models suitable to Kerala conditions. A critical review of the various factors that contribute to the pavement performance has been presented based on the data collected from selected road stretches and also from five corporations of Kerala. These roads represent the urban conditions as well as National Highways, State Highways and Major District Roads in the sub urban and rural conditions. This research work is a pursuit towards a study of the road condition of Kerala with respect to varying soil, traffic and climatic conditions, periodic performance evaluation of selected roads of representative types and development of distress prediction models for roads of Kerala. In order to achieve this aim, the study is focused into 2 parts. The first part deals with the study of the pavement condition and subgrade soil properties of urban roads distributed in 5 Corporations of Kerala; namely Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kochi, Thrissur and Kozhikode. From selected 44 roads, 68 homogeneous sections were studied. The data collected on the functional and structural condition of the surface include pavement distress in terms of cracks, potholes, rutting, raveling and pothole patching. The structural strength of the pavement was measured as rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam deflection studies. In order to collect the details of the pavement layers and find out the subgrade soil properties, trial pits were dug and the in-situ field density was found using the Sand Replacement Method. Laboratory investigations were carried out to find out the subgrade soil properties, soil classification, Atterberg limits, Optimum Moisture Content, Field Moisture Content and 4 days soaked CBR. The relative compaction in the field was also determined. The traffic details were also collected by conducting traffic volume count survey and axle load survey. From the data thus collected, the strength of the pavement was calculated which is a function of the layer coefficient and thickness and is represented as Structural Number (SN). This was further related to the CBR value of the soil and the Modified Structural Number (MSN) was found out. The condition of the pavement was represented in terms of the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) which is a function of the distress of the surface at the time of the investigation and calculated in the present study using deduct value method developed by U S Army Corps of Engineers. The influence of subgrade soil type and pavement condition on the relationship between MSN and rebound deflection was studied using appropriate plots for predominant types of soil and for classified value of Pavement Condition Index. The relationship will be helpful for practicing engineers to design the overlay thickness required for the pavement, without conducting the BBD test. Regression analysis using SPSS was done with various trials to find out the best fit relationship between the rebound deflection and CBR, and other soil properties for Gravel, Sand, Silt & Clay fractions. The second part of the study deals with periodic performance evaluation of selected road stretches representing National Highway (NH), State Highway (SH) and Major District Road (MDR), located in different geographical conditions and with varying traffic. 8 road sections divided into 15 homogeneous sections were selected for the study and 6 sets of continuous periodic data were collected. The periodic data collected include the functional and structural condition in terms of distress (pothole, pothole patch, cracks, rutting and raveling), skid resistance using a portable skid resistance pendulum, surface unevenness using Bump Integrator, texture depth using sand patch method and rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam. Baseline data of the study stretches were collected as one time data. Pavement history was obtained as secondary data. Pavement drainage characteristics were collected in terms of camber or cross slope using camber board (slope meter) for the carriage way and shoulders, availability of longitudinal side drain, presence of valley, terrain condition, soil moisture content, water table data, High Flood Level, rainfall data, land use and cross slope of the adjoining land. These data were used for finding out the drainage condition of the study stretches. Traffic studies were conducted, including classified volume count and axle load studies. From the field data thus collected, the progression of each parameter was plotted for all the study roads; and validated for their accuracy. Structural Number (SN) and Modified Structural Number (MSN) were calculated for the study stretches. Progression of the deflection, distress, unevenness, skid resistance and macro texture of the study roads were evaluated. Since the deterioration of the pavement is a complex phenomena contributed by all the above factors, pavement deterioration models were developed as non linear regression models, using SPSS with the periodic data collected for all the above road stretches. General models were developed for cracking progression, raveling progression, pothole progression and roughness progression using SPSS. A model for construction quality was also developed. Calibration of HDM–4 pavement deterioration models for local conditions was done using the data for Cracking, Raveling, Pothole and Roughness. Validation was done using the data collected in 2013. The application of HDM-4 to compare different maintenance and rehabilitation options were studied considering the deterioration parameters like cracking, pothole and raveling. The alternatives considered for analysis were base alternative with crack sealing and patching, overlay with 40 mm BC using ordinary bitumen, overlay with 40 mm BC using Natural Rubber Modified Bitumen and an overlay of Ultra Thin White Topping. Economic analysis of these options was done considering the Life Cycle Cost (LCC). The average speed that can be obtained by applying these options were also compared. The results were in favour of Ultra Thin White Topping over flexible pavements. Hence, Design Charts were also plotted for estimation of maximum wheel load stresses for different slab thickness under different soil conditions. The design charts showed the maximum stress for a particular slab thickness and different soil conditions incorporating different k values. These charts can be handy for a design engineer. Fuzzy rule based models developed for site specific conditions were compared with regression models developed using SPSS. The Riding Comfort Index (RCI) was calculated and correlated with unevenness to develop a relationship. Relationships were developed between Skid Number and Macro Texture of the pavement. The effort made through this research work will be helpful to highway engineers in understanding the behaviour of flexible pavements in Kerala conditions and for arriving at suitable maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Key Words: Flexible Pavements – Performance Evaluation – Urban Roads – NH – SH and other roads – Performance Models – Deflection – Riding Comfort Index – Skid Resistance – Texture Depth – Unevenness – Ultra Thin White Topping

A pilot investigation of the relationship between climate variability and milk compounds under the bootstrap technique

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.

Prediction of glucose excursions under uncertain parameters and food intake in intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes mellitus

Considering the difficulty in the insulin dosage selection and the problem of hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes in type 1 diabetes, dosage-aid systems appear as tremendously helpful for these patients. A model-based approach to this problem must unavoidably consider uncertainty sources such as the large intra-patient variability and food intake. This work addresses the prediction of glycaemia for a given insulin therapy face to parametric and input uncertainty, by means of modal interval analysis. As result, a band containing all possible glucose excursions suffered by the patient for the given uncertainty is obtained. From it, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes can be calculated

Constraint satisfaction techniques under uncertain conditions for fault diagnosis in nonlinear dynamic systems

The speed of fault isolation is crucial for the design and reconfiguration of fault tolerant control (FTC). In this paper the fault isolation problem is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) and solved using constraint propagation techniques. The proposed method is based on constraint satisfaction techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. In comparison with other approaches based on adaptive observers, the major advantage of the presented method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements and model errors and without the monotonicity assumption. In order to illustrate the proposed approach, a case study of a nonlinear dynamic system is presented

Análisis prospectivo de la empresa Salud Total EPS-S a 2020

El tema del sistema de salud en Colombia involucra discursos jurídicos, políticos, sociales, económicos y empresariales que se enfrentan constantemente creando inestabilidad e incertidumbre en el proceder del sistema y violentando a la Ley 100 de 1993. Bajo este marco de desequilibrio se hace necesario que la entidad promotora de salud SALUD TOTAL EPS-S realice una investigación de futuros basada en la planeación estratégica por escenarios para disminuir la incertidumbre sobre la perdurabilidad de la compañía y el funcionamiento del sistema de salud entendido como un sector relevante de la economía nacional.

Valores del capital humano y las competencias del líder que facilitan la implantación de la estrategia organizacional

La obtención de una ventaja competitiva, el desarrollo, el crecimiento, la perdurabilidad, entre otros, son los aspectos que buscan las organizaciones a través de las estrategias que se definen. Sin embargo, no es suficiente con diseñar las metas y los objetivos que se quieren alcanzar, es necesario aterrizar estos propósitos en planes de acción e involucrar a todos los miembros de la organización, lo cual se consigue a través de la implantación de la estrategia. En este sentido, la etapa de implantación de la estrategia en una organización, da curso al camino establecido en la etapa de formulación de la estrategia, por lo tanto, se relaciona directamente con su éxito o su fracaso. No obstante, este proceso no depende de algunos pocos miembros de la organización, de directivos o de funcionarios, sino que depende de la buena sincronización y armonía de todos aquellos que hacen parte de ella. La presente investigación a través de la revisión teórica y de evidencias empíricas, busca poner de manifiesto la incidencia de dos aspectos clave en la organización sobre la implantación de la estrategia, por un lado, los líderes, a partir de sus competencias interpersonales y por otro el capital humano, a partir de sus valores. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que tanto las competencias del líder como los valores del capital humano son determinantes para la adecuada implantación de la estrategia organizacional.

Social housing and land use planning in Medellin during the period 2006-2011. Steps towards socio economic and residential segregation

This paper presents an approach to the relationship between land use planning and socioeconomic residential segregation, from the location of social housing in Medellin, Colombia, during the period 2006-2011. The first part introduces the land use regulations regarding the location of social housing, identifying ambiguities in the current spatial plan. Next, we present the intersection of  regulatory information and the location of the projects that were under construction during the  study period, highlighting the need to consider the location as an important characteristic of social housing and residential segregation as a phenomenon that must be recognized and worked on land  use planning in our cities.

Utilización de los conceptos de caos y complejidad en empresas del sector financiero

Este proyecto busca determinar que utilización se hace de los conceptos de caos y complejidad en las empresas del sector financiero colombiano, para así encontrar la relación entre estos conceptos y la ocurrencia de eventos en la economía actual. Se adoptó un método descriptivo, donde se tomará como unidad de análisis una empresa representativa del sector financiero de Colombia. La compañía escogida para el análisis fue Bancolombia, la cual debido a su larga trayectoria dentro de la economía colombiana, ha demostrado un buen desempeño y el logro de sus objetivos a nivel nacional e internacional. El análisis realizado permitió tener una visión amplia y representativa del significado que el caos y la complejidad tienen para el sector financiero; y como sus respectivos conceptos se aplican a la hora de enfrentar condiciones extremas en la industria o la economía. Pero también como el comportamiento de variables pertenecientes a otras industrias, tienen la capacidad de afectar e influir en el normal comportamiento de la compañía. Se concluyó además que Bancolombia en épocas de crisis logra ser mucho más realista al afrontar los momentos. Las crisis se muestran como caos dentro de un sistema simple y organizado que afecta a sus diferentes variables no lineales, y que puede llegar a una interacción entre otros sistemas, produciendo así comportamientos críticos y complicados. Se muestra también que la complejidad dentro de un sistema financiero es una creación de interacciones simples que muestran un parámetro claro, casi deducible, que al interactuar entre todas se convierte en complejidad para las organizaciones como Bancolombia.

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Desarrollo de un estado de la cuestión acerca de las interacciones entre el control de gestión y el aprendizaje organizacional.

Las organizaciones en la actualidad deben encontrar diferentes maneras de sobrevivir en un tiempo de rápida transformación. Uno de los mecanismos usados por las empresas para adaptarse a los cambios organizacionales son los sistemas de control de gestión, que a su vez permiten a las organizaciones hacer un seguimiento a sus procesos, para que la adaptabilidad sea efectiva. Otra variable importante para la adaptación es el aprendizaje organizacional siendo el proceso mediante el cual las organizaciones se adaptan a los cambios del entorno, tanto interno como externo de la compañía. Dado lo anterior, este proyecto se basa en la extracción de documentación soporte valido, que permita explorar las interacciones entre estos dos campos, los sistemas de control de gestión y el aprendizaje organizacional, además, analizar el impacto de estas interacciones en la perdurabilidad organizacional. ​

The undergraduate level (1st study cycle) as a fundamental platform/ standard for the development of Urban and Regional Planning in higher education programs

The ongoing reforms, which were introduced under the Bologna Process and have already been extended outside of Europe , are a unique opportunity for reinforcing and structuring a common platform of understanding among members, based on the full time undergraduate courses in ( Urbanismo) Urban and Regional Planning. The training programs at this 1st cycle level, will obviously continue with the 2nd and 3rd cycles (Bachelor's Degree, Master's Degree and PhD Degree or 3+2+3 years). The training programs at this full time 1st cycle level, can also becomes the framework of understanding for the development of research in the urban fields at national and international levels.

Estágio no escalão de iniciados (sub-15) no clube atlético e cultural 2010-2011

RESUMO: O Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), apesar de ser relativamente recente, é reconhecido como um Clube Desportivo de formação de atletas de referência na zona de Lisboa. O seu pico de reconhecimento e a sua maior “montra” de formação é sem dúvida o Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (escalão Sub-13), onde é palco de jogos durante 4 dias entre os maiores clubes nacionais, bem como, alguns clubes mundialmente conhecidos. Como prova desse facto, se analisarmos alguns jogadores de elite profissional, têm no seu percurso de formação o C.A.C. como instituição representada. O relatório que de seguida se apresenta, surge no âmbito do estágio de Mestrado em Treino Desportivo e pretende divulgar todas as decisões, acções e reflexões subjacentes ao Treino Desportivo de jovens jogadores. O contexto onde foi realizado foi na equipa de Iniciados “A” (Sub-15), que disputou o Campeonato da Divisão de Honra da Associação Futebol de Lisboa. O relatório encontra-se estruturado do geral para o particular, estando dividido em três tipos de planificação: (1) Planificação Conceptual – na qual abrange uma análise ao Clube em questão, o seu contexto, os seus recursos e os vários constrangimentos. Compreende ainda um estudo prévio de situações anteriores, leia-se, épocas anteriores, bem como, a formação da equipa e dos seus jogadores, em função dos objectivos traçados e assumidos no inicio da época desportiva. Integra também a preparação de todo o período Pré-Competitivo e o recurso a meios de observação e análise visando a melhoria de todo o processo de planeamento do treino. (2) Planificação Estratégica – Esta prevê todas as acções que dizem respeito ao Período Competitivo da equipa, como por exemplo a recolha de dados tanto da nossa equipa como dos adversários, a antecipação dos graus de dificuldade dos nossos adversários, o planeamento mais operacional (Microciclos) e a escolha de estratégias consoante os diferentes adversários e por fim, as reflexões necessárias entre os vários intervenientes no processo. (3) Planificação Táctica – Por fim este tipo de planificação abarca todas as acções, decisões e reacções nos momentos que antecedem o jogo, no momento em que este decorre e ainda após este terminar. Em suma, o relatório pretende expor toda a preparação de uma equipa ao longo de uma época desportiva, visto de uma perspectiva das funções de um treinador principal. ABSTRACT: The Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), although relatively recent, is recognized as a reference club in youths training in the Lisbon area. The peak recognition and more “showcase” training ins undoubtedly the Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (Under-13), which is host to games during four days among the biggest national clubs, as well as some world-renowned clubs. As proof thereof, if we look at some elite professional players, have in their educational path C.A.C. represented as an institution. The report that presents itself, appears in the stage of Master of Sports Training and intends to disclose all the decisions, actions and thoughts behind the Sports Training of young players. The report is structured from general to particular, being divided into three types of planning: (1) Conceptual Planning - which includes an analysis on the club in question, its context, its resources and various constraints. It also includes a previous study of past situations like earlier seasons, as well as the formation of the team and its players, according to the objectives and commitments outlined in the beginning of the season. Also includes the preparation of all pre-competition period and the use of means of observation and analysis aimed at improving the entire process of planning the training. (2) Strategic Planning - This provides all the activities that concern the competitive period of the team, such as collecting information both from our team as well as opponents, anticipating the degree of difficulty of our adversaries, the more operational planning (microcycles) and the choice of strategies depending on different opponents and finally the necessary reflections between the various actors in the process. (3) Tactical Planning - Finally this type of planning includes all actions, decisions and reactions in the moments before, during and even after the game. To resume, the report seeks to expose all the preparation of the team throughout a sports season, by the perspective of the functions of a head coach.

Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.