Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory

This paper reinterprets results of Ohanissian et al (2003) to show the asymptotic equivalence of temporally aggregating series and using less bandwidth in estimating long memory by Geweke and Porter-Hudak’s (1983) estimator, provided that the same number of periodogram ordinates is used in both cases. This equivalence is in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with common mean and variance and unity correlation. Furthermore, I prove that the same applies to the estimator of Robinson (1995). Monte Carlo simulations show that this asymptotic equivalence is a good approximation in finite samples. Moreover, a real example with the daily US Dollar/French Franc exchange rate series is provided.

Spectral properties of temporally aggregated long memory processes

This paper derives the spectral density function of aggregated long memory processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from previous analyses in the literature and a small simulation exercise provides evidence in our favour. The main result point to that flow aggregates from long memory processes shall be less biased than stock ones, although both retain the degree of long memory. This result is illustrated with the daily US Dollar/ French Franc exchange rate series.

Understanding the critical distance in sparse distributed memory

Modelos de tomada de decisão necessitam refletir os aspectos da psi- cologia humana. Com este objetivo, este trabalho é baseado na Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM), um modelo psicologicamente e neuro- cientificamente plausível da memória humana, publicado por Pentti Kanerva, em 1988. O modelo de Kanerva possui um ponto crítico: um item de memória aquém deste ponto é rapidamente encontrado, e items além do ponto crítico não o são. Kanerva calculou este ponto para um caso especial com um seleto conjunto de parâmetros (fixos). Neste trabalho estendemos o conhecimento deste ponto crítico, através de simulações computacionais, e analisamos o comportamento desta “Critical Distance” sob diferentes cenários: em diferentes dimensões; em diferentes números de items armazenados na memória; e em diferentes números de armazenamento do item. Também é derivada uma função que, quando minimizada, determina o valor da “Critical Distance” de acordo com o estado da memória. Um objetivo secundário do trabalho é apresentar a SDM de forma simples e intuitiva para que pesquisadores de outras áreas possam imaginar como ela pode ajudá-los a entender e a resolver seus problemas.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

Increased hippocampal excitability and impaired spatial memory function in mice lacking VGLUT2 selectively in neurons defined by tyrosine hydroxylase promoter activity

Three populations of neurons expressing the vesicular glutamate transporter 2 (Vglut2) were recently described in the A10 area of the mouse midbrain, of which two populations were shown to express the gene encoding, the rate-limiting enzyme for catecholamine synthesis, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH).One of these populations (‘‘TH– Vglut2 Class1’’) also expressed the dopamine transporter (DAT) gene while one did not ("TH–Vglut2 Class2"), and the remaining population did not express TH at all ("TH-Vglut2-only"). TH is known to be expressed by a promoter which shows two phases of activation, a transient one early during embryonal development, and a later one which gives rise to stable endogenous expression of the TH gene. The transient phase is, however, not specific to catecholaminergic neurons, a feature taken to advantage here as it enabled Vglut2 gene targeting within all three A10 populations expressing this gene, thus creating a new conditional knockout. These knockout mice showed impairment in spatial memory function. Electrophysiological analyses revealed a profound alteration of oscillatory activity in the CA3 region of the hippocampus. In addition to identifying a novel role for Vglut2 in hippocampus function, this study points to the need for improved genetic tools for targeting of the diversity of subpopulations of the A10 area

Modeling and Experimental Aspects of Self-healing Bolted Joint through Shape Memory Alloy Actuators

Bolted joints are a form of mechanical coupling largely used in machinery due to their reliability and low cost. Failure of bolted joints can lead to catastrophic events, such as leaking, train derailments, aircraft crashes, etc. Most of these failures occur due to the reduction of the pre-load, induced by mechanical vibration or human errors in the assembly or maintenance process. This article investigates the application of shape memory alloy (SMA) washers as an actuator to increase the pre-load on loosened bolted joints. The application of SMA washer follows a structural health monitoring procedure to identify a damage (reduction in pre-load) occurrence. In this article, a thermo-mechanical model is presented to predict the final pre-load achieved using this kind of actuator, based on the heat input and SMA washer dimension. This model extends and improves on the previous model of Ghorashi and Inman [2004, "Shape Memory Alloy in Tension and Compression and its Application as Clamping Force Actuator in a Bolted Joint: Part 2 - Modeling," J. Intell. Mater. Syst. Struct., 15:589-600], by eliminating the pre-load term related to nut turning making the system more practical. This complete model is a powerful but complex tool to be used by designers. A novel modeling approach for self-healing bolted joints based on curve fitting of experimental data is presented. The article concludes with an experimental application that leads to a change in joint assembly to increase the system reliability, by removing the ceramic washer component. Further research topics are also suggested.

H1 but not H2 histamine antagonist receptors mediate anxiety-related behaviors and emotional memory deficit in mice subjected to elevated plus-maze testing

This study investigated the role of H1 and H2 receptors in anxiety and the retrieval of emotional memory using a Trial 1/Trial 2 (T1/T2) protocol in an elevated plus-maze (EPM). Tests were performed on 2 consecutive days, designated T1 and T2. Before T1, the mice received intraperitoneal injections of saline (SAL), 20 mg/kg zolantidine (ZOL, an H2 receptor antagonist), or 8.0 or 16 mg/kg chlorpheniramine (CPA, an H1 receptor antagonist). After 40 min, they were subjected to the EPM test. In T2 (24 h later), each group was subdivided into two additional groups, and the animals from each group were re-injected with SAL or one of the drugs. In T1, the Student t-test showed no difference between the SAL and ZOL or 8 mg/kg CPA groups with respect to the percentages of open arm entries (%OAE) and open arm time (%OAT). However, administration of CPA at the highest dose of 16 mg/kg decreased %OAE and %OAT, but not locomotor activity, indicating anxiogenic-like behavior. Emotional memory, as revealed by a reduction in open arm exploration between the two trials, was observed in all experimental groups, indicating that ZOL and 8 mg/kg CPA did not affect emotional memory, whereas CPA at the highest dose affected acquisition and consolidation, but not retrieval of memory. Taken together, these results suggest that H1 receptor, but not H2, is implicated in anxiety-like behavior and in emotional memory acquisition and consolidation deficits in mice subjected to EPM testing.

Effects of isoflavone on the learning and memory of women in menopause: a double-blind placebo-controlled study

Hormone decline is common to all women during aging and, associated with other factors, leads to cognitive impairment. Its replacement enhances cognitive performance, but not all women present a clinical and family or personal history that justifies its use, mainly women with a history of cancer. The aim of this study was to determine whether a daily oral dose of 80 mg of isoflavone extract for 4 months can produce benefits in women with low hormone levels, contributing to improvement in cognitive aspects. The sample comprised 50- to 65-year-old women whose menstruation had ceased at least 1 year before and who had not undergone hormone replacement. The volunteers were allocated to two groups of 19 individuals each, i.e., isoflavone and placebo. There was a weak correlation between menopause duration and low performance in the capacity to manipulate information (central executive). We observed an increase in the capacity to integrate information in the group treated with isoflavone, but no improvement in the capacity to form new memories. We did not observe differences between groups in terms of signs and symptoms suggestive of depression according to the Geriatric Depression Scale. Our results point to a possible beneficial effect of isoflavone on some abilities of the central executive. These effects could also contribute to minimizing the impact of memory impairment. Further research based on controlled clinical trials is necessary to reach consistent conclusions.

LOSS of EXPONENTIAL STABILITY FOR A THERMOELASTIC SYSTEM WITH MEMORY

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Incorporating memory effects in phase separation processes

We consider the modification of the Cahn-Hilliard equation when a time delay process through a memory function is taken into account. We then study the process of spinodal decomposition in fast phase transitions associated with a conserved order parameter. Finite-time memory effects are seen to affect the dynamics of phase transition at short times and have the effect of delaying, in a significant way, the process of rapid growth of the order parameter that follows a quench into the spinodal region. These effects are important in several systems characterized by fast processes, like non-equilibrium dynamics in the early universe and in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical approximation of the Ginzburg-Landau equation with memory effects in the dynamics of phase transitions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

How the interplay between individual spatial memory and landscape persistence can generate population distribution patterns

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Memory effect and fast spinodal decomposition

We consider the modification of the Cahn-Hilliard equation when a time delay process through a memory function is taken into account. We then study the process of spinodal decomposition in fast phase transitions associated with a conserved order parameter. The introduced memory effect plays an important role to obtain a finite group velocity. Then, we discuss the constraint for the parameters to satisfy causality. The memory effect is seen to affect the dynamics of phase transition at short times and have the effect of delaying, in a significant way, the process of rapid growth of the order parameter that follows a quench into the spinodal region.