ESSAYS ON DISPLACED WORKERS AND RESIDENTIAL MIGRATION

In this dissertation, I explore how workers’ human capital, local industry composition, and business cycles affect employment outcomes and residential migration for job losers and other workers. I first examine whether the poor employment outcomes of job losers are due to a lack of jobs that require their human capital within their local labor market. I answer this question by analyzing the extent to which the industry composition in the job loser’s local labor market affects employment outcomes when job loss occurs during expansions and during recessions. I find that if job losers reside in an area with a high employment concentration of their original industry of employment, they are 2.1-2.8 percent more likely to be re-employed at another job if job loss occurs during an expansion; I find an insignificant relationship in most specifications when job loss occurs during a recession, and in some specifications I even find a negative relationship between industry concentration and employment. I conclude that the industry composition within an area matters for job losers, since firms are more willing to hire workers from within their own industry, as these workers have more relevant accumulated human capital. However, firms are less likely to hire during a recession, making job losers’ human capital less important for job finding. Next, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, and I examine whether the business cycle affects earnings changes for job losers, and the factors that explain these differences across time. We find that job losers who lost their job during the Great Recession have earnings changes that are 10 percent more negative relative to other job losers from other periods. This result is driven primarily by longer nonemployment lengths and worse subsequent job matches. Finally, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, Alexandria Zhang, and I explore the extent to which residential migration is driven by job opportunities. We use four databases and find that changes in job moves explain some of the changes in residential migration, but the relationship is not as strong as previously documented. We find that migration patterns differ across databases, with some databases documenting steeper declines and more cyclicality.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Population ageing and monetary policy

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

Recruitment patterns and processes of coastal fish species in a temperate rocky reef

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Ramo: Ciências do Mar, Especialização em Ecologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Allozyme and mtDNA variation of white seabream Diplodus sargus populations in a transition area between western and eastern Mediterranean basins (Siculo-Tunisian Strait)

To investigate the possible influence of the Siculo-Tunisian Strait on the genetic structure of white seabream Diplodus sargus, 13 polymorphic allozyme loci and a fragment of the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA were analysed. Allozyme data indicated a moderate but significant differentiation between some north-eastern (Bizerta, Ghar El Melh Lagoon and Mahdia) and southern (Gabes Gulf and El Biban Lagoon) samples. This heterogeneity was also highlighted after removing PGM* and PGI-1* loci which may be under selection. These results can be explained by the chaotic genetic patchiness hypothesis. In contrast, the mtDNA data indicated genetic homogeneity among localities showing the absence of structure in white seabream populations across the Siculo-Tunisian Strait. Historical demography of this species suggests that it has undergone a recent population expansion as a consequence of a bottleneck event during the Pleistocene glaciations.

Influência de eventos históricos e recentes na filogeografia e estrutura genética de Neothraupis fasciata (Aves : Thraupidae), uma ave endêmica do Cerrado

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal, 2016.

A State of War: Florida from 1939 to 1945

World War II profoundly impacted Florida. The military geography of the State is essential to an understanding the war. The geostrategic concerns of place and space determined that Florida would become a statewide military base. Florida’s attributes of place such as climate and topography determined its use as a military academy hosting over two million soldiers, nearly 15 percent of the GI Army, the largest force theUS ever raised. One-in-eight Floridians went into uniform. Equally,Florida’s space on the planet made it central for both defensive and offensive strategies. The Second World War was a war of movement, and Florida was a major jump off point forUSforce projection world-wide, especially of air power. Florida’s demography facilitated its use as a base camp for the assembly and engagement of this military power. In 1940, less than two percent of the US population lived in Florida, a quiet, barely populated backwater of the United States.[1] But owing to its critical place and space, over the next few years it became a 65,000 square mile training ground, supply dump, and embarkation site vital to the US war effort. Because of its place astride some of the most important sea lanes in the Atlantic World,Florida was the scene of one of the few Western Hemisphere battles of the war. The militarization ofFloridabegan long before Pearl Harbor. The pre-war buildup conformed to theUSstrategy of the war. The strategy of theUS was then (and remains today) one of forward defense: harden the frontier, then take the battle to the enemy, rather than fight them inNorth America. The policy of “Europe First,” focused the main US war effort on the defeat of Hitler’sGermany, evaluated to be the most dangerous enemy. In Florida were established the military forces requiring the longest time to develop, and most needed to defeat the Axis. Those were a naval aviation force for sea-borne hostilities, a heavy bombing force for reducing enemy industrial states, and an aerial logistics train for overseas supply of expeditionary campaigns. The unique Florida coastline made possible the seaborne invasion training demanded for USvictory. The civilian population was employed assembling mass-produced first-generation container ships, while Floridahosted casualties, Prisoners-of-War, and transient personnel moving between the Atlantic and Pacific. By the end of hostilities and the lifting of Unlimited Emergency, officially on December 31, 1946, Floridahad become a transportation nexus. Florida accommodated a return of demobilized soldiers, a migration of displaced persons, and evolved into a modern veterans’ colonia. It was instrumental in fashioning the modern US military, while remaining a center of the active National Defense establishment. Those are the themes of this work. [1] US Census of Florida 1940. Table 4 – Race, By Nativity and Sex, For the State. 14.

Reassessing the Evolutionary History of the 17q21 Inversion Polymorphism

A polymorphic inversion that lies on chromosome 17q21 comprises two major haplotype families (H1 and H2) that not only differ in orientation but also in copy-number. Although the processes driving the spread of the inversion-associated lineage (H2) in humans remain unclear, a selective advantage has been proposed for one of its subtypes. Here, we genotyped a large panel of individuals from previously overlooked populations using a custom array with a unique panel of H2-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms and found a patchy distribution of H2 haplotypes in Africa, with North Africans displaying a higher frequency of inverted subtypes, when compared with Sub-Saharan groups. Interestingly, North African H2s were found to be closer to "non-African" chromosomes further supporting that these populations may have diverged more recently from groups outside Africa. Our results uncovered higher diversity within the H2 family than previously described, weakening the hypothesis of a strong selective sweep on all inverted chromosomes and suggesting a rather complex evolutionary history at this locus.

Vulnerable Rural Counties: The Changing Rural Landscape, 2000–2010

Understanding the demography of rural America is vital to understanding what programs, interventions and policy initiatives are needed to improve health care access, delivery and outcomes. Overall findings suggest that rural America experienced the recession that ended the 2000–2010 decade more severely than did urban America. Loss of income, declining population and reduced health care resources marked the period for most rural counties. Rural counties will need continued monitoring in the present decade to ascertain whether these adverse trends continue and to identify any policy approaches that can serve to ameliorate losses in health care services.

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.

Diagnostico estratégico del suministro de hemocomponentes en Colombia y posibles alternativas de mejora

Objetivo: realizar un diagnóstico respecto a la oferta demanda de hemocomponentes, en el contexto epidemiológico colombiano para que sirva de base en la formulación de futuros modelos logísticos de cadena de suministro que permita responder eficientemente a las necesidades transfusionales del país Método: se realizó un estudio descriptivo retrospectivo basado en las fuentes oficiales de información colombiana respecto a condiciones epidemiológicas poblacionales y su relación respecto a captación y transfusión de sangre, así como las posibilidades de conexiones aéreas. Resultados: actualmente 62.3% de la captación es aportada principalmente por 19% de los bancos de sangre del país (16 / 82), ubicados en 8 ciudades del país las cuales evidencian mejores condiciones de salud e índices de densidad poblacional superiores al promedio nacional. Adicionalmente, desde estas ciudades se puede hacer cubrimiento de hemocomponentes en todo el territorio nacional dadas las condiciones de las conexiones aéreas. Conclusiones: es posible con base en el diagnostico presentado, plantear opciones que apunten a mejorar la eficiencia en la cadena de suministros de hemocomponentes, centralizando la captación de sangre en las áreas donde se cuenta con mejores condiciones de salud y mayores densidades poblacionales. Lo anterior permitiría minimizar los porcentajes de incineración de unidades de glóbulos rojos por vencimiento al mejorar las redes de distribución y de esta manera reducir costos de operación. Debe además fortalecerse la gestión de inventarios desde los servicios de transfusión para lograr minimizar las perdidas. Lo anterior requiere control gubernamental dado que al considerarse la sangre como un bien de interés público, su uso no puede ser indiscriminado.

Asociación de las violencias física, sexual y comunitaria con el embarazo en adolescentes: análisis multinivel

Objetivos Determinar si existe asociación entre la exposición a violencia, experimentada a nivel individual o municipal, y el embarazo adolescente en mujeres Colombianas entre 13 y 19 años de edad que contestaron la Encuesta de Demografía y Salud en el año 2010. Métodos Estudio de corte transversal, nacional y multinivel. Se tomaron datos de dos niveles jerárquicos: Nivel- 1: Datos individuales de una muestra representativa de 13.313 mujeres entre 13 y 19 años de edad provenientes de La Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud del año 2010 y Nivel- 2: Datos municipales de 258 municipios provenientes de las estadísticas vitales del DANE. Resultados La prevalencia del embarazo adolescente fue del 16.8% IC 95% [16.2-17.4]. El análisis mostró que la asociación entre embarazo adolescente y violencia tanto individual, representada como violencia sexual [OR= 6.99 IC99% 4.80-10.10] y violencia física [OR= 1.74 IC99% 1.47-2.05] así como la violencia municipal medida con tasas de homicidios altas [OR= 1.99 IC99% 1.29-3.07] y muy altas [OR= 2.10 IC99% 1.21-3.61] se mantuvo estadísticamente significativa después de ajustar por las variables: Edad [OR= 1.81 IC99% 1.71-1.91], ocupación [OR= 1.62 IC99% 1.37-1.93], educación primaria o sin educación [OR= 2.20 IC99% 1.47-3.30], educación secundaria [OR= 1.70 IC99% 1.24-2.32], asistir al colegio [OR= 0.18 IC99% 0.15-0.21], conocimiento en la fisiología reproductiva [OR= 1.28 IC99% 1.06-1.54], el índice de riqueza Q1, Q2, Q3 [OR= 2.18 IC99% 1.42-3.34], [OR= 2.00 IC99% 1.39-2.28], [OR= 1.82 IC99% 1.92-2.25] y alto porcentaje de Necesidades básicas insatisfechas a nivel municipal [OR= 2.34 IC99% 1.55-3.52]. Conclusiones Este estudio mostró una relación significativamente estadística entre la violencia sexual y física con el inicio de relaciones sexuales y embarazo adolescente después de controlar por factores sociodemográficos y conocimientos en reproducción sexual en mujeres colombianas de 13 a 19 años en el año 2010. Esta asociación debe continuar siendo estudiada para lograr optimizar las estrategias de prevención y disminuir la tasa actual de embarazos adolescentes en el país y sus consecuencias.

El discurso del codesarrollo y la ideología poscolonial: La perpetuación de la migración desde África del Sahel hacia Francia

La cercanía geográfica y los vínculos históricos existentes entre Francia y África mantienen hasta la actualidad unas relaciones enmarcadas en un escenario de cooperación entre ambos. Sin embargo, el creciente número de migrantes de 1999 a 2013 desde las antiguas excolonias francesas, Malí y Senegal, llevó a Francia a impulsar una serie de herramientas para el codesarrollo, es decir, un conjunto de estrategias para que el migrante fuera un vector de desarrollo no solo para Francia sino para sus países de orígen. En ese sentido, este artículo pretende evaluar el codesarrollo como una herramienta discursiva de la política exterior francesa –a través del método de análisis del discurso de Teun van Dijk– en la cual ha prevalecido el poscolonialismo como una ideología que refleja una relación poder-conocimiento.

Survey of demographic and phenotypic data of local pig breeds of Treasure Project

Local genetic resources represent an important reservoir of biodiversity in the animal sector. Sustainable use of these resources can be an important source of income for farmers taking advantage of the peculiar characteristics of their products. The different European local pig breeds have a different level of knowledge of their characteristics both at demographic and phenotypic level. This information, however, is fundamental to the management of the breeds and represent one of the first steps in a project for the enhancement of production. This paper reports the results of a survey on the demographic and phenotypic characterization of the 20 European local pig breeds involved in the TREASURE* project. The first part of the survey shows, for all populations involved, the available demographic parameters, the structure of the breed (i.e. number of males, females and replacements), the main morphological features, the reproductive information as well as some additional information collected at herd-level (i.e. temperament, holding, mating practices). A second module reports the results related to the origins and development of the breeds, to market characteristics and the presence and distribution of niche products. The survey concludes with a module related to the specific characteristics of each breed and the management of the same in relation to food and the environment. The survey is the starting point of the genetic and productive characterization of the breeds involved that are future actions of the TREASURE project.

Determinants of European tourism demand in a demographic ageing society

This study identifies the senior European tourists determinants that explained their decisions to go on holidays. The empirical study was conducted among European tourists by applying a logit model. The model intends to explain the determinants related to the decision to go on holidays since the probability of a senior European tourist taking holidays in a country depends on a mix of motives as previous travel experience and demographic characteristics. Policy and theoretical implications are derived for contributing to the discussion between demographic variables and tourism demand choice patterns.