849 resultados para Decisions and criterion


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Marine mammals exploit the efficiency of sound propagation in the marine environment for essential activities like communication and navigation. For this reason, passive acoustics has particularly high potential for marine mammal studies, especially those aimed at population management and conservation. Despite the rapid realization of this potential through a growing number of studies, much crucial information remains unknown or poorly understood. This research attempts to address two key knowledge gaps, using the well-studied bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a model species, and underwater acoustic recordings collected on four fixed autonomous sensors deployed at multiple locations in Sarasota Bay, Florida, between September 2012 and August 2013. Underwater noise can hinder dolphin communication. The ability of these animals to overcome this obstacle was examined using recorded noise and dolphin whistles. I found that bottlenose dolphins are able to compensate for increased noise in their environment using a wide range of strategies employed in a singular fashion or in various combinations, depending on the frequency content of the noise, noise source, and time of day. These strategies include modifying whistle frequency characteristics, increasing whistle duration, and increasing whistle redundancy. Recordings were also used to evaluate the performance of six recently developed passive acoustic abundance estimation methods, by comparing their results to the true abundance of animals, obtained via a census conducted within the same area and time period. The methods employed were broadly divided into two categories – those involving direct counts of animals, and those involving counts of cues (signature whistles). The animal-based methods were traditional capture-recapture, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR), and an approach that blends the “snapshot” method and mark-recapture distance sampling, referred to here as (SMRDS). The cue-based methods were conventional distance sampling (CDS), an acoustic modeling approach involving the use of the passive sonar equation, and SECR. In the latter approach, detection probability was modelled as a function of sound transmission loss, rather than the Euclidean distance typically used. Of these methods, while SMRDS produced the most accurate estimate, SECR demonstrated the greatest potential for broad applicability to other species and locations, with minimal to no auxiliary data, such as distance from sound source to detector(s), which is often difficult to obtain. This was especially true when this method was compared to traditional capture-recapture results, which greatly underestimated abundance, despite attempts to account for major unmodelled heterogeneity. Furthermore, the incorporation of non-Euclidean distance significantly improved model accuracy. The acoustic modelling approach performed similarly to CDS, but both methods also strongly underestimated abundance. In particular, CDS proved to be inefficient. This approach requires at least 3 sensors for localization at a single point. It was also difficult to obtain accurate distances, and the sample size was greatly reduced by the failure to detect some whistles on all three recorders. As a result, this approach is not recommended for marine mammal abundance estimation when few recorders are available, or in high sound attenuation environments with relatively low sample sizes. It is hoped that these results lead to more informed management decisions, and therefore, more effective species conservation.

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Surveys can collect important data that inform policy decisions and drive social science research. Large government surveys collect information from the U.S. population on a wide range of topics, including demographics, education, employment, and lifestyle. Analysis of survey data presents unique challenges. In particular, one needs to account for missing data, for complex sampling designs, and for measurement error. Conceptually, a survey organization could spend lots of resources getting high-quality responses from a simple random sample, resulting in survey data that are easy to analyze. However, this scenario often is not realistic. To address these practical issues, survey organizations can leverage the information available from other sources of data. For example, in longitudinal studies that suffer from attrition, they can use the information from refreshment samples to correct for potential attrition bias. They can use information from known marginal distributions or survey design to improve inferences. They can use information from gold standard sources to correct for measurement error.

This thesis presents novel approaches to combining information from multiple sources that address the three problems described above.

The first method addresses nonignorable unit nonresponse and attrition in a panel survey with a refreshment sample. Panel surveys typically suffer from attrition, which can lead to biased inference when basing analysis only on cases that complete all waves of the panel. Unfortunately, the panel data alone cannot inform the extent of the bias due to attrition, so analysts must make strong and untestable assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Many panel studies also include refreshment samples, which are data collected from a random sample of new

individuals during some later wave of the panel. Refreshment samples offer information that can be utilized to correct for biases induced by nonignorable attrition while reducing reliance on strong assumptions about the attrition process. To date, these bias correction methods have not dealt with two key practical issues in panel studies: unit nonresponse in the initial wave of the panel and in the

refreshment sample itself. As we illustrate, nonignorable unit nonresponse

can significantly compromise the analyst's ability to use the refreshment samples for attrition bias correction. Thus, it is crucial for analysts to assess how sensitive their inferences---corrected for panel attrition---are to different assumptions about the nature of the unit nonresponse. We present an approach that facilitates such sensitivity analyses, both for suspected nonignorable unit nonresponse

in the initial wave and in the refreshment sample. We illustrate the approach using simulation studies and an analysis of data from the 2007-2008 Associated Press/Yahoo News election panel study.

The second method incorporates informative prior beliefs about

marginal probabilities into Bayesian latent class models for categorical data.

The basic idea is to append synthetic observations to the original data such that

(i) the empirical distributions of the desired margins match those of the prior beliefs, and (ii) the values of the remaining variables are left missing. The degree of prior uncertainty is controlled by the number of augmented records. Posterior inferences can be obtained via typical MCMC algorithms for latent class models, tailored to deal efficiently with the missing values in the concatenated data.

We illustrate the approach using a variety of simulations based on data from the American Community Survey, including an example of how augmented records can be used to fit latent class models to data from stratified samples.

The third method leverages the information from a gold standard survey to model reporting error. Survey data are subject to reporting error when respondents misunderstand the question or accidentally select the wrong response. Sometimes survey respondents knowingly select the wrong response, for example, by reporting a higher level of education than they actually have attained. We present an approach that allows an analyst to model reporting error by incorporating information from a gold standard survey. The analyst can specify various reporting error models and assess how sensitive their conclusions are to different assumptions about the reporting error process. We illustrate the approach using simulations based on data from the 1993 National Survey of College Graduates. We use the method to impute error-corrected educational attainments in the 2010 American Community Survey using the 2010 National Survey of College Graduates as the gold standard survey.

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This dissertation presents an account and analysis of published mainland Chinese media coverage surrounding three major events of public protest during the Hu-Wen era (2003-2013). The research makes a qualitative analysis of printed material drawn from a range of news outlets, differentiated by their specific political and commercial affiliations. The goal of the research is to better understand the role of mainstream media in social conflict resolution, a hitherto under-studied area, and to identify gradations within the ostensibly monolithic mainland Chinese media on issues of political sensitivity. China’s modern media formation displays certain characteristics of Anglophone media at its hyper-commercialised, populist core. However, the Chinese state retains an explicit, though often ambiguous, remit to engage with news production. Because of this, Chinese newspapers are often assumed to be one-dimensional propaganda ‘tools’ and, accordingly, easily dismissed from analyses of public protest. This research finds that, in an area where political actors have rescinded their monopoly on communicative power, a result of both policy decisions and the rise of Internet-based media platforms, established purveyors of news have acquired greater latitude to report on hitherto sensitive episodes of conflict but do so under the burden of having to correctly guide public opinion. The thesis examines the discursive resources that are deployed in this task, as well as reporting patterns which are suggestive of a new propaganda approach to handling social conflict within public media. Beside the explicitly political nature of coverage of protest events, the study sheds lights on gradations within China’s complex, hybrid media landscape both in terms of institutional purpose and qualitative performance.

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El servicio doméstico ocupa un lugar ambiguo entre los mundos público y privado. Desarrollado en el interior de los hogares de los empleadores, da lugar a relaciones en las que lo laboral y lo afectivo están imbricados. Los juicios laborales entre empleadores y trabajadoras domésticas constituyen un escenario privilegiado para observar el solapamiento de estas dimensiones. Si las demandas de las trabajadoras frente a las instituciones de justicia sitúan esta relación en el mundo público, las respuestas de los empleadores muchas veces buscan resituarlas en el orden privado. Por otra parte, en algunos escenarios, las demandas de las trabajadoras son también expresadas en un lenguaje que remite a lo privado. En este artículo analizamos las lógicas de la confl ictividad judicial establecidas en las estrategias de empleadores y trabajadoras frente al Tribunal del Trabajo Doméstico (TTD), un organismo creado en 1956 para atender los confl ictos individuales que derivan de las relaciones de trabajo de este sector en la ciudad de Buenos Aires. Tomamos dos horizontes temporales caracterizados por cambios en la regulación del trabajo, en general, y del servicio doméstico, en particular: el de los primeros años de funcionamiento del TTD y el cambio de siglo.

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Future teachers must be competent in creating educational settings, which provide tools to their students future they can develop a conscious mind, able to interpret their experiences, to make decisions and imagine innovative solutions to help you participate autonomously and responsible in society. This requires an educational system that allows them to integrate the subjective into a broader spatial and temporal context. La patrimonializatión of “Cultural artefacts” and oral history, the basis of which, are found in the active mind and links both the personal and the group experience, don’t only serve as a catalyst to achieving this goal, but rather, they facilitate the implementation of established practice in infant education. To gain this experience we offer the opportunity for students of their degree in Infant Education in the Public University of Navarre, training within the framework of social didactics, allowing students to learn about established practice from iconic, materials and oral sources in the Archive of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Navarra. The vidences points to their effectiveness and presented in a work in progress.

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La controversia ha acechado siempre a los museos, en especial, pero desde luego no de forma exclusiva, a aquellos museos de arte que exponen el arte moderno y contemporáneo. Probablemente siempre habrá controversias, ya que son ocasiones en las que el museo ha de enfrentarse directamente a un interrogatorio público sobre sus decisiones y procesos, a menudo demasiado ocultas y con frecuencia mal entendidas. Dado el creciente reconocimiento de que ya no es suficiente para los museos coleccionar, conservar y mostrar, sino más bien que los museos deben ahora comprometerse fundamental y directamente con sus comunidades, ¿cómo pueden los museos gestionar la controversia? ¿Pueden los museos aprender de la controversia para descubrir formas mejores de trabajar con sus públicos? Este artículo examinará tres controversias en los museos canadienses – Los cantos del espíritu, Voz de Fuego y Vanitas o El vestido de carne - en un intento de analizar estas preguntas usando los conceptos ANT de Bruno Latour.

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Las TIC son inseparables de la museografía in situ e imprescindibles en la museografía en red fija y móvil. En demasiados casos se han instalado prótesis tecnológicas para barnizar de modernidad el espacio cultural, olvidando que la tecnología debe estar al servicio de los contenidos de manera que resulte invisible y perfectamente imbricada con la museografía tradicional. Las interfaces móviles pueden fusionar museo in situ y en red y acompañar a las personas más allá del espacio físico. Esa fusión debe partir de una base de datos narrativa y abierta a obras materiales e inmateriales de otros museos de manera que no se trasladen las limitaciones del museo físico al virtual. En el museo in situ tienen sentido las instalaciones hipermedia inmersivas que faciliten experiencias culturales innovadoras. La interactividad (relaciones virtuales) debe convivir con la interacción (relaciones físicas y personales) y estar al servicio de todas las personas, partiendo de que todas, todos tenemos limitaciones. Trabajar interdisciplinarmente ayuda a comprender mejor el museo para ponerlo al servicio de las personas.

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Background: Pain management is a cornerstone of palliative care. The clinical issues encountered by physicians when managing pain in patients dying with advanced dementia, and how these may impact on prescribing and treatment, are unknown. Aim: To explore physicians’ experiences of pain management for patients nearing the end of life, the impact of these on prescribing and treatment approaches, and the methods employed to overcome these challenges. Design: Qualitative, semi-structured interview study exploring: barriers to and facilitators of pain management, prescribing and treatment decisions, and training needs. Thematic analysis was used to elicit key themes. Settings/Participants: Twenty-three physicians, responsible for treating patients with advanced dementia approaching the end of life, were recruited from primary care (n=9), psychiatry (n=7) and hospice care (n=7). Results: Six themes emerged: diagnosing pain, complex prescribing and treatment approaches, side-effects and adverse events, route of administration, importance of sharing knowledge and training needs. Knowledge exchange was often practised through liaison with physicians from other specialties. Cross-specialty mentoring, and the creation of knowledge networks were believed to improve pain management in this patient population. Conclusions: Pain management in end-stage dementia is complex, requiring cross-population of knowledge between palliative care specialists and non-specialists, in addition to collateral information provided by other health professionals and patients’ families. Regular, cost- and time-effective mentoring and ongoing professional development are perceived to be essential in empowering physicians to meet clinical challenges in this area.

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Diagnostic errors are responsible for a significant number of adverse events. Logical reasoning and good decision-making skills are key factors in reducing such errors, but little emphasis has traditionally been placed on how these thought processes occur, and how errors could be minimised. In this article, we explore key cognitive ideas that underpin clinical decision making and suggest that by employing some simple strategies, physicians might be better able to understand how they make decisions and how the process might be optimised.

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La frontière entre le politique et l'intellectualisme militant est, d'ordinaire, ténue. Tout univers politico-constitutionnel est ainsi susceptible de faire les frais d'un martèlement doctrinal qui, à maints égards, relève davantage du construit que du donné. Résultante directe d'une construction parfois intéressée, le récit identitaire, à force de répétition, s'installera confortablement sur les sièges de l'imaginaire populaire. Il accèdera, au fil du temps, au statut de mythe pur et simple. Ce dernier, politiquement parlant, revêt de puissants effets aphrodisiaques. La présente thèse doctorale s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux mythes créés, depuis 1982, par un segment de la doctrine québécoise : en matière de droits linguistiques, objet principal de notre étude, Charte canadienne des droits et libertés et Cour suprême, toutes deux liguées contre le Québec, combineront leurs efforts afin d'assurer le recul du fait français dans la Belle Province. Quant aux francophones hors Québec, ceux-ci, depuis l'effritement du concept de nation canadienne-française, sont dorénavant exclus de l'équation, expurgés de l'échiquier constitutionnel. En fait, l'adoption d'un nationalisme méthodologique comme nouvelle orthodoxie politique et doctrinale rend ardue, en plusieurs sens, la conciliation de leur existence avec les paradigmes et épistémologie maintenant consacrés. Ainsi, et selon la logique du tiers exclu, une victoire francophone hors Québec signifiera, du fait d'une prétendue symétrie interprétative, un gain pour la communauté anglo-québécoise. Cette thèse vise à discuter de la teneur de diverses allégories établies et, le cas échéant, à reconsidérer la portée réelle de la Charte canadienne en matière linguistique. Il sera alors démontré que plusieurs lieux communs formulés par les milieux intellectuels québécois échouent au moins partiellement, le test de l'analyse factuelle. Celui-ci certifiera de l'exclusion, par la doxa, de toute décision judiciaire ou autre vérité empirique ne pouvant cadrer à même les paramètres, voire les prismes, de l'orthodoxie suggérée.

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User behaviour is a significant determinant of a product’s environmental impact; while engineering advances permit increased efficiency of product operation, the user’s decisions and habits ultimately have a major effect on the energy or other resources used by the product. There is thus a need to change users’ behaviour. A range of design techniques developed in diverse contexts suggest opportunities for engineers, designers and other stakeholders working in the field of sustainable innovation to affect users’ behaviour at the point of interaction with the product or system, in effect ‘making the user more efficient’. Approaches to changing users’ behaviour from a number of fields are reviewed and discussed, including: strategic design of affordances and behaviour-shaping constraints to control or affect energyor other resource-using interactions; the use of different kinds of feedback and persuasive technology techniques to encourage or guide users to reduce their environmental impact; and context-based systems which use feedback to adjust their behaviour to run at optimum efficiency and reduce the opportunity for user-affected inefficiency. Example implementations in the sustainable engineering and ecodesign field are suggested and discussed.

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Within ecological research and environmental management, there is currently a focus on demonstrating the links between human well-being and wildlife conservation. Within this framework, there is a clear interest in better understanding how and why people value certain places over others. We introduce a new method that measures cultural preferences by exploring the potential of multiple online georeferenced digital photograph collections. Using ecological and social considerations, our study contributes to the detection of places that provide cultural ecosystem services. The degree of appreciation of a specific place is derived from the number of people taking and sharing pictures of it. The sequence of decisions and actions taken to share a digital picture of a given place includes the effort to travel to the place, the willingness to take a picture, the decision to geolocate the picture, and the action of sharing it through the Internet. Hence, the social activity of sharing pictures leaves digital proxies of spatial preferences, with people sharing specific photos considering the depicted place not only “worth visiting” but also “worth sharing visually.” Using South Wales as a case study, we demonstrate how the proposed methodology can help identify key geographic features of high cultural value. These results highlight how the inclusion of geographical user-generated content, also known as volunteered geographic information, can be very effective in addressing some of the current priorities in conservation. Indeed, the detection of the most appreciated nonurban areas could be used for better prioritization, planning, and management.

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The proliferation of private land conservation areas (PLCAs) is placing increasing pressure on conservation authorities to effectively regulate their ecological management. Many PLCAs depend on tourism for income, and charismatic large mammal species are considered important for attracting international visitors. Broad-scale socioeconomic factors therefore have the potential to drive fine-scale ecological management, creating a systemic scale mismatch that can reduce long-term sustainability in cases where economic and conservation objectives are not perfectly aligned. We assessed the socioeconomic drivers and outcomes of large predator management on 71 PLCAs in South Africa. Owners of PLCAs that are stocking free-roaming large predators identified revenue generation as influencing most or all of their management decisions, and rated profit generation as a more important objective than did the owners of PLCAs that did not stock large predators. Ecotourism revenue increased with increasing lion (Panthera leo) density, which created a potential economic incentive for stocking lion at high densities. Despite this potential mismatch between economic and ecological objectives, lion densities were sustainable relative to available prey. Regional-scale policy guidelines for free-roaming lion management were ecologically sound. By contrast, policy guidelines underestimated the area required to sustain cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus), which occurred at unsustainable densities relative to available prey. Evidence of predator overstocking included predator diet supplementation and frequent reintroduction of game. We conclude that effective facilitation of conservation on private land requires consideration of the strong and not necessarily beneficial multiscale socioeconomic factors that influence private land management.

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Inland flood risks are defined by a range of environmental and social factors, including land use and floodplain management. Shifting patterns of storm intensity and precipitation, attributed to climate change, are exacerbating flood risk in regions across North America. Strategies for adapting to growing flood risks and climate change must account for a community’s specific vulnerabilities, and its local economic, environmental, and social conditions. Through a stakeholder-engaged methodology, we designed an interactive decision exercise to enable stakeholders to evaluate alternatives for addressing specific community flood vulnerabilities. We used a multicriteria framework to understand what drives stakeholder preferences for flood mitigation and adaptation alternatives, including ecosystem-based projects. Results indicated strong preferences for some ecosystem-based projects that utilize natural capital, generated a useful discussion on the role of individual values in driving decisions and a critique of local environmental and hazard planning procedure, and uncovered support for a river management alternative that had previously been considered socially infeasible. We conclude that a multicriteria decision framework may help ensure that the multiple benefit qualities of natural capital projects are considered by decision makers. Application of a utility function can demonstrate the role of individual decision-maker values in decision outcomes and help illustrate why one alternative may be a better choice than another. Although designing an efficient and accurate multicriteria exercise is quite challenging and often data intensive, we imagine that this method is applicable elsewhere. It may be especially suitable to group decisions that involve varying levels of expertise and competing values, as is often the case in planning for the ecological and human impacts of climate change.