Contribución a los Modelos y Metodologías para la Estimación de la Calidad Percibida por los Usuarios (QoE) a partir de Parámetros de Calidad de Red/Servicio (QoS) en Servicios Convergentes Multimedia (Triple-Play)

Esta Tesis constituye una contribución a los Modelos y Metodologías para la Estimación de la Calidad Percibida por los Usuarios, o Calidad de Experiencia (QoE), a partir de Parámetros de Calidad y/o Rendimiento de Red y/o Servicio (QoS) en Servicios Multimedia, y específicamente en servicios Triple-Play (3P): servicios de Televisión (TV), Telefonía y Datos ofrecidos por un mismo operador como un paquete único. En particular, se centra en los servicios Triple-Play convergentes (desplegados sobre una Red de Transporte común basada en IP, gestionada por un único operador como un Sistema Autónomo (SA)), y la relación entre la Calidad Percibida por los usuarios de dichos servicios y los parámetros de rendimiento de la Red de Transporte IP subyacente. Específicamente, contribuye a la estimación ‘en línea’ (es decir, durante la prestación del servicio, en tiempo real o casi-real) de dicha calidad. La calidad de experiencia de los usuarios es un factor determinante para el éxito o fracaso de estos servicios, y su adecuada gestión resulta por tanto un elemento crucial para el despliegue exitoso de los mismos. La calidad de experiencia resulta fácil de entender, pero compleja de implementar en sistemas reales, debido principalmente a la dificultad de su modelado, evaluación, y traducción en términos de parámetros de calidad de servicio. Mientras que la calidad de servicio puede medirse, monitorizarse y controlarse fácilmente, la calidad de experiencia es todavía muy difícil de gestionar. Una metodología completa de gestión de la calidad de experiencia debe incluir al menos: monitorización de la experiencia de los usuarios durante el consumo del servicio; adaptación de la provisión de contenidos a las condiciones variables del contexto; predicción del nivel de degradación potencial de la calidad de experiencia; y recuperación de la degradación debida a cambios en el sistema. Para conseguir un control completo de la experiencia de los usuarios finales, todas estas tareas deben ser realizadas durante la prestación del servicio y de forma coordinada. Por lo tanto, la capacidad de medir, estimar y monitorizar la calidad percibida en tiempo casi-real, y relacionarla con las condiciones de servicio de la red, resulta crítica para los proveedores de este tipo de servicios, especialmente en el caso de los más exigentes, tales como la difusión de Televisión sobre IP (IPTV). Para ello se ha seleccionado un modelo ya existente, de tipo matricial, para la estimación de la Calidad Global en servicios complejos a partir de los parámetros de funcionamiento interno de los agentes que proporcionan los servicios. Este modelo, definido en términos de servicios y sus componentes, percepciones de los usuarios, capacidades de los agentes, indicadores de rendimiento y funciones de evaluación, permite estimar la calidad global de un conjunto de servicios convergentes, tal como la perciben uno o más grupos de usuarios. Esto se consigue combinando los resultados de múltiples modelos parciales, tales que cada uno de ellos proporciona la valoración de la calidad percibida para uno de los servicios componentes, obtenida a partir de un conjunto de parámetros de rendimiento y/o Calidad de Servicio de la red de transporte IP convergente. El modelo se basa en la evaluación de las percepciones de los usuarios a partir de Factores de Valoración, calculados a partir de Indicadores de Rendimiento, que se derivan a su vez de Parámetros de Funcionamiento Interno correspondientes a las capacidades de los distintos agentes que intervienen en la prestación de los servicios. El trabajo original incluye la aplicación del modelo a un servicio 3P (datos+voz+vídeo). En este trabajo, sin embargo, el servicio de vídeo (Vídeo bajo Demanda, VoD) se considera poco importante y es finalmente ignorado. En el caso de los usuarios residenciales, el servicio de voz (Voz sobre IP, VoIP) se considera asimismo poco importante y es también ignorado, por lo que el servicio global se reduce finalmente a los servicios de datos (Acceso a Internet y juegos interactivos). Esta simplificación era razonable en su momento, pero la evolución del mercado de servicios convergentes ha hecho que en la actualidad las razones que la justificaban no sean ya aplicables. En esta Tesis, por lo tanto, hemos considerado un servicio ‘Triple-Play’ completo, incluyendo servicios de datos, voz y vídeo. Partiendo de dicho modelo, se ha procedido a actualizar los servicios considerados, eliminando los no relevantes e incluyendo otros no considerados, así como a incluir nuevos elementos (percepciones) para la estimación de la calidad de los servicios; actualizar, extender y/o mejorar los modelos de estimación de los servicios ya incluidos; incluir modelos de estimación para los nuevos servicios y elementos añadidos; desarrollar nuevos modelos de estimación para aquellos servicios o elementos para los que no existen modelos adecuados; y por último, extender, actualizar y/o mejorar los modelos para la estimación de la calidad global. Con todo ello se avanza apreciablemente en la modelización y estimación de la Calidad de Experiencia (QoE) en Servicios Multimedia a partir de Parámetros de Calidad de Servicio (QoS) y/o Rendimiento de la Red, y específicamente en la estimación ‘en línea’, en tiempo casi-real, de dicha calidad en servicios Triple-Play convergentes. La presente Tesis Doctoral se enmarca en la línea de investigación sobre Calidad de Servicio del grupo de Redes y Servicios de Telecomunicación e Internet, dentro del Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas Telemáticos (DIT) de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM).

An optimization method for conceptual design in engineering systems based on high order singular value decomposition

Se presenta un nuevo método de diseño conceptual en Ingeniería Aeronáutica basado el uso de modelos reducidos, también llamados modelos sustitutos (‘surrogates’). Los ingredientes de la función objetivo se calculan para cada indiviudo mediante la utilización de modelos sustitutos asociados a las distintas disciplinas técnicas que se construyen mediante definiciones de descomposición en valores singulares de alto orden (HOSVD) e interpolaciones unidimensionales. Estos modelos sustitutos se obtienen a partir de un número limitado de cálculos CFD. Los modelos sustitutos pueden combinarse, bien con un método de optimización global de tipo algoritmo genético, o con un método local de tipo gradiente. El método resultate es flexible a la par que mucho más eficiente, computacionalmente hablando, que los modelos convencionales basados en el cálculo directo de la función objetivo, especialmente si aparecen un gran número de parámetros de diseño y/o de modelado. El método se ilustra considerando una versión simplificada del diseño conceptual de un avión. Abstract An optimization method for conceptual design in Aeronautics is presented that is based on the use of surrogate models. The various ingredients in the target function are calculated for each individual using surrogates of the associated technical disciplines that are constructed via high order singular value decomposition and one dimensional interpolation. These surrogates result from a limited number of CFD calculated snapshots. The surrogates are combined with an optimization method, which can be either a global optimization method such as a genetic algorithm or a local optimization method, such as a gradient-like method. The resulting method is both flexible and much more computationally efficient than the conventional method based on direct calculation of the target function, especially if a large number of free design parameters and/or tunablemodeling parameters are present. The method is illustrated considering a simplified version of the conceptual design of an aircraft empennage.

Airport Taxi Planning: Lagrangian Decomposition

The airport taxi planning (TP) module is a decision tool intended to guide airport surface management operations. TP is defined by a flow network optimization model that represents flight ground movements and improves aircraft taxiing routes and schedules during periods of aircraft congestion. TP is not intended to operate as a stand‐alone tool for airport operations management: on the contrary, it must be used in conjunction with existing departing and arriving traffic tools and overseen by the taxi planner of the airport, also known as the aircraft ground controller. TP must be flexible in order to accommodate changing inputs while maintaining consistent routes and schedules already delivered from past executions. Within this dynamic environment, the execution time of TP may not exceed a few minutes. Classic methods for solving binary multi‐commodity flow networks with side constraints are not efficient enough; therefore, a Lagrangian decomposition methodology has been adapted to solve it. We demonstrate TP Lagrangian decomposition using actual data from the Madrid‐Barajas Airport

Las agencias de calificación crediticia (Las hijas de Elena: La triple a)

En este trabajo, en primer lugar, se analiza la estructura (accionariado), funcionalidad (cómo funcionan y emiten sus opiniones) y el comportamiento (cómo actúan en los mercados) de las tres agencias más importantes de calificación de activos financieros, de emisores y emisiones de activos financieros. En segundo término, se señalan sus poco, si algo, científicas evaluaciones basadas en conceptos y actuaciones tan poco adecuadas como: profecía autocumplida, carencia de fecha de caducidad, catastrofismo, que, a veces, imponen con comportamientos gansteriles. Asimismo, se destaca la importancia y trascendencia que suponen las opiniones que emiten dichas agencias, auténticos ucases, que las convierten, de facto, en auténticos señores de horca y caudillo que acondicionan la vida y hacienda de inversores y emisores. En realidad, su comportamiento es tan deplorable y funesto, que como las hijas de Elena, de ahí el título del trabajo, ninguna es buena. Finalmente, se presenta, en forma de decálogo, los hechos, irrefutables, que justifican el calificativo de malvadas de dichas agencias: S&P, Moody?s y Fitch, hasta el punto de que son el antimefistofelismo personificado. Mefistófeles se definía a sí mismo como un pobre diablo que pretendiendo hacer el mal, acababa haciendo el bien, justo al revés que las hijas de Elena.

An interpolation tool for aerodynamic mesh deformation problems based on octree decomposition

Desarrollo de algoritmo de interpolación basado en descomposición octree y funciones radiales de soporte compacto para movimiento de mallas en problemas aerolásticos

Triple-junction solar cell performance under Fresnel-based concentrators taking into account chromatic aberration and off-axis operation

Concentration photovoltaic (CPV) systems might produce quite uneven irradiance distributions (both on their level and on their spectral distribution) on the solar cell. This effect can be even more evident when the CPV system is slightly off-axis, since they are often designed to assure good uniformity only at normal incidence. The non-uniformities both in absolute irradiance and spectral content produced by the CPV systems, can originate electrical losses in multi-junction solar cells (MJSC). This works is focused on the integration of ray-tracing methods for simulating the irradiance and spectrum maps produced by different optic systems throughout the solar cell surface, with a 3D fully distributed circuit model which simulates the electrical behavior of a state-of-the-art triple-junction solar cell under the different light distributions obtained with ray-tracing. In this study four different CPV system (SILO, XTP, RTP, and FK) comprising Fresnel lenses concentrating sunlight onto the same solar cell are modeled when working on-axis and 0.6 degrees off-axis. In this study the impact of non-uniformities on a CPV system behavior is revealed. The FK outperforms other Fresnel-based CPV systems in both on-axis and off-axis conditions.

Preliminary temperature Accelerated Life Test (ALT) on III-V commercial concentrator triple-junction solar cells

A quantitative temperature accelerated life test on sixty GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction commercial concentrator solar cells is being carried out. The final objective of this experiment is to evaluate the reliability, warranty period, and failure mechanism of high concentration solar cells in a moderate period of time. The acceleration of the degradation is realized by subjecting the solar cells at temperatures markedly higher than the nominal working temperature under a concentrator Three experiments at three different temperatures are necessary in order to obtain the acceleration factor which relates the time at the stress level with the time at nominal working conditions. . However, up to now only the test at the highest temperature has finished. Therefore, we can not provide complete reliability information but we have analyzed the life data and the failure mode of the solar cells inside the climatic chamber at the highest temperature. The failures have been all of them catastrophic. In fact, the solar cells have turned into short circuits. We have fitted the failure distribution to a two parameters Weibull function. The failures are wear-out type. We have observed that the busbar and the surrounding fingers are completely deteriorate

Decomposition driven interface evolution for layers of binary mixtures: I. Model dirivation and base states

A dynamical model is proposed to describe the coupled decomposition and profile evolution of a free surfacefilm of a binary mixture. An example is a thin film of a polymer blend on a solid substrate undergoing simultaneous phase separation and dewetting. The model is based on model-H describing the coupled transport of the mass of one component (convective Cahn-Hilliard equation) and momentum (Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equations) supplemented by appropriate boundary conditions at the solid substrate and the free surface. General transport equations are derived using phenomenological nonequilibrium thermodynamics for a general nonisothermal setting taking into account Soret and Dufour effects and interfacial viscosity for the internal diffuse interface between the two components. Focusing on an isothermal setting the resulting model is compared to literature results and its base states corresponding to homogeneous or vertically stratified flat layers are analyzed.

Decomposition driven interface evolution for layers of binary mixtures: I. Model dirivation and base states

Algebraic topology (homology) is used to analyze the state of spiral defect chaos in both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis reveals topological asymmetries that arise when non-Boussinesq effects are present. The asymmetries are found in different flow fields in the simulations and are robust to substantial alterations to flow visualization conditions in the experiment. However, the asymmetries are not observable using conventional statistical measures. These results suggest homology may provide a new and general approach for connecting spatiotemporal observations of chaotic or turbulent patterns to theoretical models.

Overal reaction rate and stoichiometry for thermal decomposition of hydrazine

An asymptotic analysîs of the Eberstein-Glassman kinetic mechanlsm for the thermal décomposition of hydrazine is carried out. It is shown that at températures near 800°K and near 1000°K,and for hydrazine molar fractions of the order of unity, 10-2 the entire kinetics reduces to a single, overall reaction. Characteristic times for the chemical relaxation of ail active, intermediate species produced in the décomposition, and for the overall reaction, are obtained. Explicit expressions for the overall reaction rate and stoichiometry are given as functions of température, total molar concentration (or pressure)and hydrazine molar fraction. Approximate, patched expressions can then be obtained for values of température and hydrazine molar fraction between 750 and 1000°K, and 1 and 10-3 respectively.

Evaluation of the reliability of commercial concentrator triple-junction solar cells by means of accelerated life tests (ALT)

A temperature accelerated life test on commercial concentrator lattice-matched GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction solar cells has been carried out. The solar cells have been tested at three different temperatures: 119, 126 and 164 °C and the nominal photo-current condition (820 X) has been emulated by injecting current in darkness. All the solar cells have presented catastrophic failures. The failure distributions at the three tested temperatures have been fitted to an Arrhenius-Weibull model. An Arrhenius activation energy of 1.58 eV was determined from the fit. The main reliability functions and parameters (reliability function, instantaneous failure rate, mean time to failure, warranty time) of these solar cells at the nominal working temperature (80 °C) have been obtained. The warranty time obtained for a failure population of 5 % has been 69 years. Thus, a long-term warranty could be offered for these particular solar cells working at 820 X, 8 hours per day at 80 °C.

Case study in failure analysis of accelerated life tests (ALT) on III-V commercial triple-junction concentrator solar cells

In this work the failure analysis carried out in III-V concentrator multijunction solar cells after a temperature accelerated life test is presented. All the failures appeared have been catastrophic since all the solar cells turned into low shunt resistances. A case study in failure analysis based on characterization by optical microscope, SEM, EDX, EQE and XPS is presented in this paper, revealing metal deterioration in the bus bar and fingers as well as cracks in the semiconductor structure beneath or next to the bus bar. In fact, in regions far from the bus bar the semiconductor structure seems not to be damaged. SEM images have dismissed the presence of metal spikes inside the solar cell structure. Therefore, we think that for these particular solar cells, failures appear mainly as a consequence of a deficient electrolytic growth of the front metallization which also results in failures in the semiconductor structure close to the bus bars.

Characterization of the manufacturing processes to grow triple-junction solar cells

A number of important but little-investigated problems connected with III-V/Ge heterostructure in the GaInP/GaInAs/Ge multijunction solar cells grown by MOVPE are considered in the paper. The opportunity for successfully applying the combination of reflectance and reflectance anisotropy spectroscopy in situ methods for investigating III-V structure growth on a Ge substrate has been demonstrated. Photovoltaic properties of the III-V/Ge narrow-band subcell of the triple-junction solar cells have been investigated. It has been shown that there are excess currents in the Ge photovoltaic p-n junctions, and they have the tunneling or thermotunneling character. The values of the diode parameters for these current flow mechanisms have been determined. The potential barrier at the III-V/Ge interface was determined and the origin of this barrier formation during MOVPE heterogrowth was suggested.

Preliminary temperature accelerated life test (ALT) on lattice mismatched triple-junction concentrator solar cells-on-carriers

A temperature accelerated life test on concentrator lattice mismatched Ga0.37In0.63P/Ga0.83In0.17As/Ge triple-junction solar cells-on-carrier is being carried out. The solar cells have been tested at three different temperatures: 125, 145 and 165°C and the nominal photo-current condition (500X) is emulated by injecting current in darkness. The final objective of these tests is to evaluate the reliability, warranty period, and failure mechanism of these solar cells in a moderate period of time. Up to now only the test at 165°C has finished. Therefore, we cannot provide complete reliability information, but we have carried out preliminary data and failure analysis with the current results.

Optimization methods for the operating room management under uncertainty: stochastic programming vs. decomposition approach

The operating theatres are the engine of the hospitals; proper management of the operating rooms and its staff represents a great challenge for managers and its results impact directly in the budget of the hospital. This work presents a MILP model for the efficient schedule of multiple surgeries in Operating Rooms (ORs) during a working day. This model considers multiple surgeons and ORs and different types of surgeries. Stochastic strategies are also implemented for taking into account the uncertain in surgery durations (pre-incision, incision, post-incision times). In addition, a heuristic-based methods and a MILP decomposition approach is proposed for solving large-scale ORs scheduling problems in computational efficient way. All these computer-aided strategies has been implemented in AIMMS, as an advanced modeling and optimization software, developing a user friendly solution tool for the operating room management under uncertainty.