INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

The gender-based stereotype about food is on the table. Food choice also depends on co-eater's gender

Previous research has shown that different foods are stereotypically associated with gender and that eating in a role-congruent way fulfills an impression management function. On the other hand, other studies revealed that adapting one's food consumption to that of the co-eaters is a means to gain social approval as well. In the present study, we bridge these two distinct lines of research by studying what happens when the two norms (conforming to the gender-based stereotype and imitating the co-eater) conflict, that is with opposite-sex co-eaters. Results indicated that the tendency to match the co-eaters' supposed consumption generally appeared over and above one's gender-congruent choice. In addition, as expected, gender differences also emerged: while men were always willing to adapt to the co-eaters, women's intention to eat the feminine food was independent from the co-eaters' gender.

Monikanavaisuuden hyödyt ja haitat - tutkimus monikanavaisuudesta palveluntarjoajan ja asiakkaan näkökulmasta

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, voidaanko asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Monikanavaisuus tuo asiakkaalle mahdollisuuksia ajasta ja paikasta riippumattomaan asiointiin. Asiakkaan näkökulmasta tämä tarkoittaa usein sitä, että hänen oppimansa asiointitapa muuttuu. Asiakas kokee haittana sen, että joutuu panostamaan uuden asiointitavan opettelemiseen ja odottaa tämän muutoksen tuovan hänelle hyötyjä. Monikanavaisuuden hyödyt asiakkaalle punnitaan tässä muutostilanteessa. Palveluntarjoaja odottaa monikanavamallin tuovan kustannussäästöjä, sillä kanavavalinnat ovat keino kehittää asiakkuuksia ja vaikuttaa yrityksen kannattavuuteen pitkällä aikajänteellä. Monikanavamallin toteuttaminen vaatii palveluntarjoajalta alkuvaiheessa resursseja, investointeja ja halutun muutoksen tavoitteellista johtamista. Tutkittavat asiakkaat valittiin Suomen Posti Oyj:n Yritykset ja yritykset –asiakassegmentistä. Tutkimuksessa ei löytynyt asiakaskohtaisia eroja asiakkaiden odotuksista palveluntarjoajien monikanavamalleihin, mutta hyötyodotusten suhteen tunnistettiin kolme erilaista asiakastyyppiä: kustannussäästöjä odottavat hintaorientoituneet asiakkaat, palvelun entistä parempaa sujumista odottavat palveluorientoituneet asiakkaat ja oman valinnanvapautensa merkitystä painottavat asiakassuhdeorientoituneet asiakkaat. Palveluntarjoajan tulee pystyä viestimään ja argumentoimaan asiointitavan muutoksesta kullekin asiakkaalle merkityksellisellä tavalla. Teorian ja empirian pohjalta voidaan sanoa, että asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset voidaan yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Tämä edellyttää, että palveluntarjoaja tuntee asiakkaansa niin hyvin, että tietää millaiset eri asiakkaiden hyötyodotukset ovat.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. METHODS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) "high-risk" echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. RESULTS: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. CONCLUSION: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Recommandations for malaria prevention in moderate to low risk areas : traveller's choice and risk perception

Background. Le considérable déclin de la malaria au niveau mondial remet en question la stratégie de chimioprophylaxie pour les voyageurs à destination de pays à risque modéré à faible de malaria. Un consensus international de la meilleure stratégie de prévention reste à trouver. Suivant le mouvement actuel de partage décisionnel, cette étude invite le voyageur au sein du débat comme acteur du processus de décision. Objectifs. Investiguer les préférences des voyageurs à destination de pays à risque modéré à faible de malaria en matière de prévention contre la malaria, en mettant en perspective leur perception du risque et les raisons de leur choix. Méthodologie. Dans la salle d'attente du Centre de Vaccination et Médecine de Voyage, les voyageurs à destination de risque modéré à faible de malaria remplissent un questionnaire et choisissent la méthode de prévention qu'ils préfèrent aidés d'un tableau leur proposant 4 choix possible ; mesure de prévention des piqûres de moustique uniquement, chimioprophylaxie, traitement de réserve seul et traitement de réserve avec test diagnostic rapide. Ils reçoivent aussi une échelle de risque illustrant les risques de malaria et d'effets indésirables des anti-malariques comparés à différents autres risques liés au voyage, inspirée par les palettes de Paling de la Communication Risk Institut. Résultats. De décembre 2012 à décembre 2013, 391 voyageurs on été inclus. 59 (15%) ont choisi la chimioprophylaxie, 116 (30%) un traitement de réserve, 112 (29%) un traitement de réserve avec test rapide diagnostic, 100 (26%) une prévention des piqûre de moustiques uniquement, and 4 (1%) plusieurs alternatives. Les raisons de choisir une chimioprophylaxie étaient la sécurité (42%), l'action préventive (29%), l'efficacité (15%) et la facilité d'utilisation (15%). Les raisons de choisir un traitement de réserve étaient moins de prise de médicament (29%), moins d'effets secondaires de ceux-ci (23%) et le prix (9%). Les voyageurs choisissant la chimioprohylaxie l'avaient plus souvent déjà utilisée par le passé [OR=3.0 (CI 1.7-5.44)], sans différence en terme de profil démographique, caractéristique du voyage ou comportement à risque. Conclusions. Quand interrogés, 85% des voyageurs à destination de pays à risque modéré à faible de malaria préfèrent ne pas prendre la chimioprophylaxie, bien que la plupart des pays la recommande encore. Les raisons avancées sont cohérentes avec leur choix. Les nouvelles recommandations devraient prendre en compte la préférence des voyageurs et inclure un processus de décision partagé.

Does working memory training affect decision making ? : a neuroeconomic study

We all make decisions of varying levels of importance every day. Because making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, almost all decision involves some conflicts or dissatisfaction. Traditional economic models esteem that a person must weight the positive and negative outcomes of each option, and based on all these inferences, determines which option is the best for that particular situation. However, individuals rather act as irrational agents and tend to deviate from these rational choices. They somewhat evaluate the outcomes' subjective value, namely, when they face a risky choice leading to losses, people are inclined to have some preference for risk over certainty, while when facing a risky choice leading to gains, people often avoid to take risks and choose the most certain option. Yet, it is assumed that decision making is balanced between deliberative and emotional components. Distinct neural regions underpin these factors: the deliberative pathway that corresponds to executive functions, implies the activation of the prefrontal cortex, while the emotional pathway tends to activate the limbic system. These circuits appear to be altered in individuals with ADHD, and result, amongst others, in impaired decision making capacities. Their impulsive and inattentive behaviors are likely to be the cause of their irrational attitude towards risk taking. Still, a possible solution is to administrate these individuals a drug treatment, with the knowledge that it might have several side effects. However, an alternative treatment that relies on cognitive rehabilitation might be appropriate. This project was therefore aimed at investigate whether an intensive working memory training could have a spillover effect on decision making in adults with ADHD and in age-matched healthy controls. We designed a decision making task where the participants had to select an amount to gamble with the chance of 1/3 to win four times the chosen amount, while in the other cases they could loose their investment. Their performances were recorded using electroencephalography prior and after a one-month Dual N-Back training and the possible near and far transfer effects were investigated. Overall, we found that the performance during the gambling task was modulated by personality factors and by the importance of the symptoms at the pretest session. At posttest, we found that all individuals demonstrated an improvement on the Dual N-Back and on similar untrained dimensions. In addition, we discovered that not only the adults with ADHD showed a stable decrease of the symptomatology, as evaluated by the CAARS inventory, but this reduction was also detected in the control samples. In addition, Event-Related Potential (ERP) data are in favor of an change within prefrontal and parietal cortices. These results suggest that cognitive remediation can be effective in adults with ADHD, and in healthy controls. An important complement of this work would be the examination of the data in regard to the attentional networks, which could empower the fact that complex programs covering the remediation of several executive functions' dimensions is not required, a unique working memory training can be sufficient. -- Nous prenons tous chaque jour des décisions ayant des niveaux d'importance variables. Toutes les décisions ont une composante conflictuelle et d'insatisfaction, car prendre une décision implique qu'il y ait des choix alternatifs à considérer. Les modèles économiques traditionnels estiment qu'une personne doit peser les conséquences positives et négatives de chaque option et en se basant sur ces inférences, détermine quelle option est la meilleure dans une situation particulière. Cependant, les individus peuvent dévier de ces choix rationnels. Ils évaluent plutôt les valeur subjective des résultats, c'est-à-dire que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les mener à des pertes, les gens ont tendance à avoir des préférences pour le risque à la place de la certitude, tandis que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les conduire à un gain, ils évitent de prendre des risques et choisissent l'option la plus su^re. De nos jours, il est considéré que la prise de décision est balancée entre des composantes délibératives et émotionnelles. Ces facteurs sont sous-tendus par des régions neurales distinctes: le chemin délibératif, correspondant aux fonctions exécutives, implique l'activation du cortex préfrontal, tandis que le chemin émotionnel active le système limbique. Ces circuits semblent être dysfonctionnels chez les individus ayant un TDAH, et résulte, entre autres, en des capacités de prise de décision altérées. Leurs comportements impulsifs et inattentifs sont probablement la cause de ces attitudes irrationnelles face au risque. Cependant, une solution possible est de leur administrer un traitement médicamenteux, en prenant en compte les potentiels effets secondaires. Un traitement alternatif se reposant sur une réhabilitation cognitive pourrait être appropriée. Le but de ce projet est donc de déterminer si un entrainement intensif de la mémoire de travail peut avoir un effet sur la prise de décision chez des adultes ayant un TDAH et chez des contrôles sains du même âge. Nous avons conçu une tâche de prise de décision dans laquelle les participants devaient sélectionner un montant à jouer en ayant une chance sur trois de gagner quatre fois le montant choisi, alors que dans l'autre cas, ils pouvaient perdre leur investissement. Leurs performances ont été enregistrées en utilisant l'électroencéphalographie avant et après un entrainement d'un mois au Dual N-Back, et nous avons étudié les possibles effets de transfert. Dans l'ensemble, nous avons trouvé au pré-test que les performances au cours du jeu d'argent étaient modulées par les facteurs de personnalité, et par le degré des sympt^omes. Au post-test, nous avons non seulement trouvé que les adultes ayant un TDAH montraient une diminutions stable des symptômes, qui étaient évalués par le questionnaire du CAARS, mais que cette réduction était également perçue dans l'échantillon des contrôles. Les rsultats expérimentaux mesurés à l'aide de l'éléctroencéphalographie suggèrent un changement dans les cortex préfrontaux et pariétaux. Ces résultats suggèrent que la remédiation cognitive est efficace chez les adultes ayant un TDAH, mais produit aussi un effet chez les contrôles sains. Un complément important de ce travail pourrait examiner les données sur l'attention, qui pourraient renforcer l'idée qu'il n'est pas nécessaire d'utiliser des programmes complexes englobant la remédiation de plusieurs dimensions des fonctions exécutives, un simple entraiment de la mémoire de travail devrait suffire.

Signs of a vector's adaptive choice: on the evasion of infectious hosts and parasite-induced mortality

Laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated in many cases that malaria vectors do not feed randomly, but show important preferences either for infected or non-infected hosts. These preferences are likely in part shaped by the costs imposed by the parasites on both their vertebrate and dipteran hosts. However, the effect of changes in vector behaviour on actual parasite transmission remains a debated issue. We used the natural associations between a malaria-like parasite Polychromophilus murinus, the bat fly Nycteribia kolenatii and a vertebrate host the Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii to test the vector's feeding preference based on the host's infection status using two different approaches: 1) controlled behavioural assays in the laboratory where bat flies could choose between a pair of hosts; 2) natural bat fly abundance data from wild-caught bats, serving as an approximation of realised feeding preference of the bat flies. Hosts with the fewest infectious stages of the parasite were most attractive to the bat flies that did switch in the behavioural assay. In line with the hypothesis of costs imposed by parasites on their vectors, bat flies carrying parasites had higher mortality. However, in wild populations, bat flies were found feeding more based on the bat's body condition, rather than its infection level. Though the absolute frequency of host switches performed by the bat flies during the assays was low, in the context of potential parasite transmission they were extremely high. The decreased survival of infected bat flies suggests that the preference for less infected hosts is an adaptive trait. Nonetheless, other ecological processes ultimately determine the vector's biting rate and thus transmission. Inherent vector preferences therefore play only a marginal role in parasite transmission in the field. The ecological processes rather than preferences per se need to be identified for successful epidemiological predictions.

Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.

Europeanization or Party Politics? Explaining Government Choice for Corporatist Concertation

This article assesses whether changes in government choice for policy concertation with trade unions and employers are better explained by international or domestic factors. We compare patterns of corporatist governance in a strongly Europeanized policy domain (labor migration policy) and in a weakly Europeanized policy domain (welfare state reforms) over the last 20 years in Austria and Switzerland. We show that there is no systematic difference in patterns of concertation between the two policy sectors and that factors linked to party politics play a bigger role in the choice of governments for concertation. If the base of party support for policies is divided, governments are more prone to resort to corporatist concertation as a way to build compromises for potentially controversial or unpopular policies. By contrast, ideologically cohesive majority coalitions are less prone to resort to concertation because they do not need to build compromises outside their base of party support.

Impact of Investment Strategies on Performance in Pulp and Paper Industry

The main objective of this study was to examine, what kind of investment strategies the leading European and North American pulp and paper industry companies (PPI) used in 1991-2003, and how the selected strategies affected their performance. The investment strategies were categorised in three classes including mergers and acquisitions, investments in new capacity and investments in existing capacity. The results showed that mergers and acquisitions represented the largest share of total investments in 1991-2003 followed by investments in existing capacity. PPI companies changed investment strategies over time by increasing the share of mergers and acquisitions, which decreased investments in new capacity especially among North American companies. According to the results, good asset quality and investments in new and existing capacity provided better profitability than often expensive acquisitions. Also the capacity decreases had a positive impact on profitability. Average asset quality and profitability were higher among European companies. The study concluded that in the long term the available value creating investment opportunities should limit capital expenditure levels, not the relation of capital expenditure to depreciation.

Thermoregulation and microhabitat choice in the polymorphic asp viper (Vipera aspis).

In ectotherms, thermoregulation strongly depends on environmental conditions, as well as on intrinsic factors, such as skin colour. Indeed, due to its physical properties, melanin pigments allow melanistic morphs to benefit of a more efficient thermoregulation compared to non-melanistic ones. Despite thermal benefits of melanism have often been highlighted under experimental conditions, such field data remain scarce. In this study, we investigated the influence of colouration on body temperature and microhabitat choice in a montane population of colour polymorphic asp viper (Vipera aspis) characterized by a strong presence of melanism (64%). Results highlighted a difference in internal body temperature, but only within gravid females, with melanistic individuals having higher body temperatures compared to non-melanistic ones. No differences were found when considering both sexes. We also showed that melanistic and non-melanistic vipers were found in different microhabitat types, i.e. melanistic snakes used areas marked by a scarcer sun exposure and by higher vegetation cover compared to non-melanistic ones. This result has important implications. Indeed, besides providing a possible explanation for the lack of difference in body temperature (except for gravid females), it confirms that melanistic individuals can potentially use their efficient thermoregulation in order to inhabit less exposed and thermally unfavourable microhabitats.

Entry Mode Choice in a Hard Service Company

Pro gradun tavoitteena oli löytää tärkeimmät seikat, jotka vaikuttavat kansainvälisen operaatiomuodon valintaan. Tutkimuskohteena olivat suomalaiset pienet tai keskisuuret tuotteistetut ohjelmistopalveluyritykset. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin kvalitatiivista tutkimusta sekä case-tutkimusta. Tutkimus koostui kahdesta osasta: teoreettinen osa sekä empiirinen kahden case yrityksen analyysi. Operaatiomuodon valintaan vaikuttavat tekijät jaettiin sisäisiin (yritys, tuote ja päätöksentekijä), ulkoisiin (ala ja maa) ja operaatiomuodon (kontrolli, riski, resurssit, joustavuus, tuotot ja kulut) tekijöihin. Teoreettisesti operaatiomuodon valinta on erittäin monimutkainen päätös ja sitä on tutkittu monelta kannalta. Tämä empiirinen tutkimus osoittaa, että yrityksen resurssit olivat tärkein vaikuttava tekijä molemmissa yrityksissä.

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public-Private Partnerships : Contractual Choice in the US Water industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

Vertical relations and local competition : an empirical approach

The analysis of vertical industry relations forms an essential element in the field of industrial organization. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and the principal-agent problem in Chile’s petrol market. It shows that local competition plays an important role in the choice of a disintegrated vertical structure, and that low levels of service investment have the same effect. Conversely, the number of own-brand outlets and a high level of investment in services reduce the probability of disintegration. The paper demonstrates that vertical disintegration has a null effect on wholesale petrol prices and a positive effect on retail petrol prices of between 1.6 and 7 per cent, depending on fuel type.