Activities of tabanids (Diptera, Tabanidae) attacking domestic duck-Cairina moschata (Linnaeus) (Aves, Anatidae), introduced in a forest area in the Central Amazon, Manaus, Brazil

Presented here are the feeding habits, attack behavior, daily and annual activity of adult of Phorcotabanus cinereus (Wiedeman, 1821), Chrysops laetus (Fabricius, 1805) and Phaeotabanus cajennensis (Fabricius, 1787), while biting a domestic duck, Cairina moschata (Linnaeus, 1758). The last two species were recorded for the first time attacking birds. This study comprehended monthly observations of two consecutive days from April/97 to March/98 between 5:30 a.m. and 6:30 p.m. at the Army Instructional Base ((BI-2/CIGS) near Manaus. Annual occurrence of P. cinereus was from July to September, with a daily occurrence between 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. and highest activity at 12:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. C. laetus ocurred from June to October; with a daily occurrence between 8:00 a.m. and 3 p.m. and highest activity at 11:00 and 12:00 a.m. Occurrence of P. cajennensis with one specimen only, was in July between 10:00 and 11:00 a.m.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Campaign rhetoric: A model of reputation

We analyze conditions under which a candidate's campaignrhetoric may affect the beliefs of the voters over whatpolicy the candidate will implement in case he wins theelection. We develop a model of repeated elections withcomplete information in which candidates are purely ideological. Voter's strategies involve a credible threat to punish candidates that renege of their campaignpromises, and in equilibrium all campaign promises arebelieved by voters, and honored by candidates. We obtainthat the degree to which promises are credible in equilibriumis an increasing function of the value of a candidate'sreputation.

The benefits of limited feedback in organizations

In most firms, managers periodically assess workers' performance. Evidence suggeststhat managers withhold information during these reviews, and some observersargue that this necessarily reduces surplus. This paper assesses the validity of thisargument when workers have career concerns. Disclosure has two effects: it exposesthe worker to uncertainty about future effort levels, but allows him to use current effortto influence his employer's beliefs about future effort. The surplus-maximizingdisclosure policy reveals output realizations in the center of the distribution, butnot in the tails. Thus, it is efficient for firms to reveal some but not all performanceinformation.

Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Projectos Futuros e Atitudes Vocacionais dos Alunos do 9º ano de uma Escola Secundária de Cabo Verde

As escolhas vocacionais são momentos importantes no ciclo do desenvolvimento humano, sendo particularmente relevantes as que ocorrem ainda na adolescência. Em Cabo Verde são escassos os estudos sobre o desenvolvimento vocacional e os projectos vocacionais dos jovens cabo-verdianos. O presente estudo tem como objectivo analisar as atitudes vocacionais e a construção de projectos futuros de adolescentes. Para tal, foram inqueridos 100 alunos de 9º ano de escolaridade de uma escola secundária de Cabo Verde, dos quais 45 são rapazes e 55 raparigas. Esses alunos responderam o questionário sociodemográfico, o Inventário de Desenvolvimento de Carreira, a Escala de Atribuição para Carreira e uma versão adaptada do Inventário de Percepção de Barreira na Carreira. Os resultados mostraram que a maioria dos participantes apresenta projectos, variando no grau de especificação. As raparigas foram mais específicas nos seus projectos. Nas atitudes de planeamento e exploração vocacional as diferenças de género não foram significativas. A análise das crenças atribucionais para a carreira permitiu observar diferenças mais significativas de género, na subescala causalidade interna associado ao fracasso, diferença esta, favorável aos rapazes. Nas percepções de barreiras, a diferença mais significava entre raparigas e rapazes verificaram-se na variável: restrição de oportunidades. Por fim, discute-se a importância da orientação vocacional e apresenta as limitações e implicações do estudo.

Necessidades de formação contínua dos professores para utilização das TIC na escola : um estudo com professores de uma escola secundária em Cabo Verde

No momento em que se verifica algumas reformas no sistema educativo cabo-verdiano, torna-se necessário analisar a questão da formação dos professores de forma a prepará-los para a função que têm que desempenhar. Com a realização deste estudo, pretende-se diagnosticar percursos e necessidade de formação dos professores na área das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), bem como descrever o sentido de competência (auto-eficácia) dos professores na utilização das tecnologias, concretamente à mobilização dos mesmos no processo ensino e aprendizagem. Tendo em conta os objetivos do estudo, optou-se por utilizar uma metodologia de natureza quantitativa. O estudo integra a participação de 87 professores. Escolheu-se a técnica de inquérito, realizando um inquérito por questionário com questões fechadas aos professores da Escola Secundária Abílio Duarte situada na Cidade da Praia, ilha de Santiago, Cabo Verde. A revisão da literatura permitiu verificar que já foram desenvolvidas iniciativas, a nível nacional, para a implementação das TIC nas escolas. Atualmente destaca-se o programa Mundu Novu do governo de Cabo Verde, coordenado pelo Ministério da Educação, que tem como objetivo modernizar o processo de ensino através da utilização das TIC criando um novo paradigma de ensino interativo. Os resultados apontam para a progressiva utilização das TIC nas atividades dos professores que revelam um moderado sentido de auto-eficácia de utilização das TIC. A formação de professores é apontada como o principal obstáculo à integração e utilização educativa das TIC.

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Neglected risks, financial innovation and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Managing by values in the next milenium: Cultural redesign for strategic organizational change

The system of beliefs and values, that shaped the model for management and organizations during the 20th century, is just not good enough today. In order to keep a business functioning well and competing successfully in markets that are increasingly more global, complex, professionally demanding, constantly changing and oriented towards quality and customer satisfaction a new model is needed. In this paper, we will propose that both Management by Instructions (MBI) and Management by Objectives (MBO) today give notoriously inadequate results. By contrast, description of a new approach labeled: Management by Values (MBV), seem to be emerging as a strategic leadership tool. The paper outlines this approach and discusses the implementation of MBV as a tool to redesign culture in organizations and prepare them for the next millenium.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

Globalization and culture shaping the gender gap: A comparative analysis of urban Latin America and East Asia (1970 - 2000)

In this paper we present: 1. The available data on comparative gender inequality at themacroeconomic level and 2. Gender inequality measures at the microeconomic and case studylevel. We see that market openness has a significant effect on the narrowing of the human capitalgender gap. Globalization and market openness stand as factors that improve both the humancapital endowments of women and their economic position. But we also see that the effects ofculture and religious beliefs are very different. While Catholicism has a statistically significantinfluence on the improvement of the human capital gender gap, Muslim and Buddhist religiousbeliefs have the opposite effect and increase human capital gender differences.In the second global era, some Catholic Latin American countries benefited from market opennessin terms of the human capital and income gender gap, whereas we find the opposite impact inBuddhist and Muslim countries like China and South Korea where women s economic positionhas worsened in terms of human capital and wage inequality.

A community survey of sun exposure, sunburn and sun protection.

AIM: To describe outdoor activities, sun protection behaviours and the experience of sunburn in a sample of New Zealanders during summer weekends of 1994. METHODS: 1243 respondents to a telephone survey provided information regarding their outdoor activities for the 5 hour period around midday of the previous Saturday and Sunday. The sample was drawn from those aged 15 to 65 years in the five centres of Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. Respondents provided information on sun exposure, sunburn, sun protection and beliefs about tanning, as well as background demographic information, skin type and previous experience of sunburn. RESULTS: 12% of the sample (or 17% of all those outdoors) reported being sunburned on the preceding weekend, and those sunburned tended to be men, and to be under age 35 years. The face, neck and limbs were the areas most frequently reported as burned. Sporting activities and beach or water activities were associated with the highest number of episodes of burning. Overall 38% of those outside reported wearing a hat and 32% reported the use of a sunscreen. Positive attitudes to tanning were quite common and probably present the main target for change in the community. CONCLUSION: On any sunny weekend in summer about three-quarters of adult New Zealanders will be out in the sun for relatively long periods of time, and many will get sunburned. The reduction of such harmful sun exposures remains an important public health goal.