Driving licensing renewal policy using neural network-based probabilistic decision support system

This paper investigates neural network-based probabilistic decision support system to assess drivers' knowledge for the objective of developing a renewal policy of driving licences. The probabilistic model correlates drivers' demographic data to their results in a simulated written driving exam (SWDE). The probabilistic decision support system classifies drivers' into two groups of passing and failing a SWDE. Knowledge assessment of drivers within a probabilistic framework allows quantifying and incorporating uncertainty information into the decision-making system. The results obtained in a Jordanian case study indicate that the performance of the probabilistic decision support systems is more reliable than conventional deterministic decision support systems. Implications of the proposed probabilistic decision support systems on the renewing of the driving licences decision and the possibility of including extra assessment methods are discussed.

Az európai uniós tagság mint modernizációs hajtóerő. Gondolatok a kelet-közép-európai országok EU-tagságának 10. évfordulóján = EU membership as a driving force of modernization. Ideas on the 10th anniversary of EU membership of East Central European countries

A szerző az Európai Unióhoz az elmúlt évtizedben csatlakozott országok felzárkózásának összefüggéseit vizsgálja, rámutatva arra, hogy a kelet-közép-európai térség országainak természetes modernizációs központja az Európai Unió. Az európai integrációba történő szerves beépülésnek nem volt és a jövőben sincs reális alternatívája. Annak ellenére, hogy a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági válság rendkívül kedvezőtlen fordulatot hozott, az új tagországok többségében jelentős ütemű felzárkózási folyamat indult el: egy évtizeden belül relatív pozíciójuk az uniós átlaghoz képest átlagosan 15 százalékpont javult a vásárlóerő-paritáson mért egy főre jutó GDP-t tekintve. A tagság számos előnye közül ki kell emelni, hogy az uniós költségvetésből származó közvetlen transzferek hatására az új tagállamok számottevő külső forráshoz jutottak, aminek révén hosszú távú fejlődésüket és versenyképességüket befolyásoló területeken jelentős beruházásokat hajthattak végre. E transzferek kapcsán a szerző felhívja a figyelmet arra, hogy a szűk látókörűen számított nettó haszonélvezői pozíció valójában kölcsönös előnyöket rejt: az EU fejlettebb országai számára is komoly előnyök származnak a megnövekedett importkeresletből és általában a bővülés kereskedelemteremtő hatásaiból. _____ The author analyses some catch-up aspects of countries joining the EU in 2004 and 2007, pointing out that the EU is an obvious centre of modernization for the countries in East Central Europe. There was no realistic alternative to participating in the European integration process and this applies also to the future. Contrary to the extremely bad general environment caused by the international financial and economic crisis, most new member-states were able to converge on the EU average quite fast: within a decade the relative regional level of development measured in GDP per capita terms and compared with the EU average increased by 15 per cent. It should be stressed that among several advantages of EU membership, direct transfers from the EU-level budget played a crucial role in improving competitiveness through investment. Looking beyond narrow-minded net budgetary positions, the author sees mutual comprehensive benefits: the more developed member-states can enjoy additional demand for their products, and in general benefit from the trade-creating effects of enlargement.

The drivers of perception: Identifying the driving factors of resident perceptions of municipal service quality in cities of South Florida

The idea of comparative performance assessment is crucial. Recent study findings show that in South Florida the use by most municipalities of external benchmarks for performance comparison is virtually non-existent. On one level this study sought to identify the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. On a different and more practical level, this study sought to identify a core set of measures that could serve for multi jurisdictional comparisons of performance. ^ This study empirically tested three groups of hypotheses. Data were collected via custom designed survey instruments from multiple jurisdictions, representing diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, and across two counties. A second layer of analysis was conducted on municipal budget documents for the presence of performance measures. A third layer of analysis was conducted via face-to-face interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Research questions were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistic methodologies. ^ Results of survey data yielded inconsistent findings. In absolute aggregated terms, the use of sociological determinants to guide inquiry failed to yield conclusive answers regarding the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. At disaggregated community levels, however, definite differences emerged but these had weak predictive ability. More useful were the findings of performance measures reporting via municipal budget documents and analyses of interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Regardless of socio-economic profile, neighborhood characteristics, level of civic engagement or type of community, the same aspects were important to citizens when making assessments of service quality. For parks and recreation, respondents most frequently cited maintenance, facility amenities, and program offerings as important while for garbage collection services timely and consistent service delivery mattered most. Surprisingly municipalities participating in the study track performance data on items indicated as important by citizen assessments but regular feed back from residents or reporting to the same is rarely done. ^ The implications of these findings suggest that endeavors, such as the one undertaken in this study, can assist in determining a core set of measures for cross jurisdictional comparisons of municipal service quality, improving municipal delivery of services, and to communicate with the public. ^

On becoming creatures : being called to presence in a distracted world

Peer reviewed

On becoming creatures : being called to presence in a distracted world

Peer reviewed

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

The effects of conflict in driving forward innovation in shared leadership management consultant teams

It is argued in this study that current investigations of the role of conflict in shared leadership teams and, thus, teams in which all members have the opportunity to participate in its decision-making process are insufficient as they have focused on the downsides of these conflicts. This study demonstrates that task conflict is beneficial in that it can have positive effects on innovation in teams. It shows that particularly in shared leadership management consultant teams task conflict can stimulate innovation. Therefore, this research investigates the relationships among shared leadership, conflict and innovation. The research develops and empirically tests a conceptual model which demonstrates the relationships between these concepts and for which the inclusion of multiple research methods was essential. The sequential explanatory approach included a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, the order of which can be adapted for other domains of application. The conceptual model was first tested with a sample of 329 management consultants. This was followed by 25, in-depth, face-to-face interviews conducted with individual survey respondents. In addition, weekly meetings of a management consultant team in action were video recorded over several months. This allowed for an in-depth explanation of the findings from the survey by providing an understanding of the underlying processes. The inclusion of observational methods provided a validating role and explained how and why conflicts contributed to the development of team innovation, through the analysis of subtleties and fleeting disagreements in a real-life management consultant team. The results deliver an assessment of the theoretical model and demonstrate that task conflict can allow for additional innovation in management consultant teams operating under a shared leadership structure. A practical model and guidelines for management consultant teams wanting to enhance their innovatory capacities are provided. In addition, a novel-user methodology which includes video observations is developed, with recommendations and steps aiding researchers aiming to employ a similar combination of methods. An original contribution to knowledge is made regarding the positive effects that task conflict can have towards innovation in shared leadership teams. Collaboration and trust are identified as important mediators between shared leadership and task conflict and significant regarding the development of innovation. The effectiveness of shared leadership in reducing negative relationship conflict and the benefits of both shared leadership and task conflict in enhancing innovation are demonstrated.

Extreme-Ultraviolet-Initated High-Order Harmonic Generation: Driving Inner-Valence Electrons Using Below-Threshold-Energy Extreme-Ultraviolet Light

We propose a novel scheme for resolving the contribution of inner- and outer-valence electrons in XUV-initiated high-harmonic generation in neon. By probing the atom with a low energy (below the 2s ionisation threshold) ultrashort XUV pulse, the 2p electron is steered away from the core, while the 2s electron is enabled to describe recollision trajectories. By selectively suppressing the 2p recollision trajectories we can resolve the contribution of the 2s electron to the high-harmonic spectrum. We apply the classical trajectory model to account for the contribution of the 2s electron, which allows for an intuitive understanding of the process.

Hierarchical concept of optimization based path planning for autonomous driving

Otto-von Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Maschinenbau, Dissertation, 2016

Iowa Crash History 2001 to 2015: Drivers Distracted by Use of Phone or Other Device, May 11, 2016

Iowa crash history of distracted drivers by use of phone or other devices.

Driving Flows in Laboratory Astrophysical Plasma Jets: The Mochi.LabJet Experiment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Allelopathy: driving mechanisms governing its activity in agriculture.

Allelopathy determines the dynamics of plant species in different environments. Understanding this biological phenomenon could help to develop applications in both natural and agricultural systems. This review summarizes the genetic and environmental characteristics that control the production and release of allelochemicals in agroecosystems. This study highlights the current understanding of the environmental changes caused by allelochemicals and summarizes the knowledge about the mechanisms of action of these compounds. Finally, it reviews novel applications of allelopathy in agricultural production systems, including the role of allelochemicals in consortia and their potential use in no-tillage cropping systems through cover crops or mulches.