A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Ancient DNA of the extinct Lava shearwater (Puffinus olsoni) from the Canary Islands reveals incipient differentiation within the P. puffinus complex

The loss of species during the Holocene was, dramatically more important on islands than on continents. Seabirds from islands are very vulnerable to human-induced alterations such as habitat destruction, hunting and exotic predators. For example, in the genus Puffinus (family Procellariidae) the extinction of at least five species has been recorded during the Holocene, two of them coming from the Canary Islands.

Inférence de source de traces d'essence retrouvées dans des débris d'incendie: Evaluation de la contribution de la chromatographie en phase gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique

Lorsque de l'essence est employée pour allumer et/ou propager un incendie, l'inférence de la source de l'essence peut permettre d'établir un lien entre le sinistre et une source potentielle. Cette inférence de la source constitue une alternative intéressante pour fournir des éléments de preuve dans ce type d'événements où les preuves matérielles laissées par l'auteur sont rares. Le but principal de cette recherche était le développement d'une méthode d'analyse de spécimens d'essence par GC-IRMS, méthode pas routinière et peu étudiée en science forensique, puis l'évaluation de son potentiel à inférer la source de traces d'essence en comparaison aux performances de la GC-MS. Un appareillage permettant d'analyser simultanément les échantillons par MS et par IRMS a été utilisé dans cette recherche. Une méthode d'analyse a été développée, optimisée et validée pour cet appareillage. Par la suite, des prélèvements d'essence provenant d'un échantillonnage conséquent et représentatif du marché de la région lausannoise ont été analysés. Finalement, les données obtenues ont été traitées et interprétées à l'aide de méthodes chimiométriques. Les analyses effectuées ont permis de montrer que la méthodologie mise en place, aussi bien pour la composante MS que pour l'IRMS, permet de différencier des échantillons d'essence non altérée provenant de différentes stations-service. Il a également pu être démontré qu'à chaque nouveau remplissage des cuves d'une station-service, la composition de l'essence distribuée par cette station est quasi unique. La GC-MS permet une meilleure différenciation d'échantillons prélevés dans différentes stations, alors que la GC-IRMS est plus performante lorsqu'il s'agit de comparer des échantillons collectés après chacun des remplissages d'une cuve. Ainsi, ces résultats indiquent que les deux composantes de la méthode peuvent être complémentaires pour l'analyse d'échantillons d'essence non altérée. Les résultats obtenus ont également permis de montrer que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence ne compromet pas la possibilité de grouper des échantillons de même source par GC-MS. Il est toutefois nécessaire d'effectuer une sélection des variables afin d'éliminer celles qui sont influencées par le phénomène d'évaporation. Par contre, les analyses effectuées ont montré que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence a une forte influence sur la composition isotopique des échantillons. Cette influence est telle qu'il n'est pas possible, même en effectuant une sélection des variables, de grouper correctement des échantillons évaporés par GC-IRMS. Par conséquent, seule la composante MS de la méthodologie mise en place permet d'inférer la source d'échantillons d'essence évaporée. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ When gasoline is used to start and / or propagate an arson, source inference of gasoline can allow to establish a link between the fire and a potential source. This source inference is an interesting alternative to provide evidence in this type of events where physical evidence left by the author are rare. The main purpose of this research was to develop a GC-IRMS method for the analysis of gasoline samples, a non-routine method and little investigated in forensic science, and to evaluate its potential to infer the source of gasoline traces compared to the GC-MS performances. An instrument allowing to analyze simultaneously samples by MS and IRMS was used in this research. An analytical method was developed, optimized and validated for this instrument. Thereafter, gasoline samples from a large sampling and representative of the Lausanne area market were analyzed. Finally, the obtained data were processed and interpreted using chemometric methods. The analyses have shown that the methodology, both for MS and for IRMS, allow to differentiate unweathered gasoline samples from different service stations. It has also been demonstrated that each new filling of the tanks of a station generates an almost unique composition of gasoline. GC-MS achieves a better differentiation of samples coming from different stations, while GC-IRMS is more efficient to distinguish samples collected after each filling of a tank. Thus, these results indicate that the two components of the method can be complementary to the analysis of unweathered gasoline samples. The results have also shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples does not compromise the possibility to group samples coming from the same source by GC-MS. It is however necessary to make a selection of variables in order to eliminate those which are influenced by the evaporation. On the other hand, the carried out analyses have shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples has such a strong influence on the isotopic composition of the samples that it is not possible, even by performing a selection of variables, to properly group evaporated samples by GC-IRMS. Therefore, only the MS allows to infer the source of evaporated gasoline samples.

Chemical profiling: a tool to decipher the structure and organisation of illicit drugs markets: an 8-year study in Western Switzerland

Illicit drug analyses usually focus on the identification and quantitation of questioned material to support the judicial process. In parallel, more and more laboratories develop physical and chemical profiling methods in a forensic intelligence perspective. The analysis of large databases resulting from this approach enables not only to draw tactical and operational intelligence, but may also contribute to the strategic overview of drugs markets. In Western Switzerland, the chemical analysis of illicit drug seizures is centralised in a laboratory hosted by the University of Lausanne. For over 8 years, this laboratory has analysed 5875 cocaine and 2728 heroin specimens, coming from respectively 1138 and 614 seizures operated by police and border guards or customs. Chemical (major and minor alkaloids, purity, cutting agents, chemical class), physical (packaging and appearance) as well as circumstantial (criminal case number, mass of drug seized, date and place of seizure) information are collated in a dedicated database for each specimen. The study capitalises on this extended database and defines several indicators to characterise the structure of drugs markets, to follow-up on their evolution and to compare cocaine and heroin markets. Relational, spatial, temporal and quantitative analyses of data reveal the emergence and importance of distribution networks. They enable to evaluate the cross-jurisdictional character of drug trafficking and the observation time of drug batches, as well as the quantity of drugs entering the market every year. Results highlight the stable nature of drugs markets over the years despite the very dynamic flows of distribution and consumption. This research work illustrates how the systematic analysis of forensic data may elicit knowledge on criminal activities at a strategic level. In combination with information from other sources, such knowledge can help to devise intelligence-based preventive and repressive measures and to discuss the impact of countermeasures.

Creating a research network for a successful e-portfolio design and implementation

The presence of e-portfolios in educational centres, companies and administrations has emergedstrongly during the last years by creating very different practices coming from different objectives and purposes. This situation has led researchers and practitioners to design and implement e-portfolios with little reference to previous knowledge of them; consequently, developments are disparate with many of the processes and dimensions used both in development and use being unnecessary complex. In order to minimize the inconveniences, unify these developmental processes and improve the resultsof implementation and use of e-portfolios, it seemed necessary to create a network of researchers, teachers and trainers coming from different universities and institutions of different kinds who are interested in the investigation and the practice of e-portfolios in Spain. Therefore, The Network on e-portfoliowas created in 2006, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and led by the UniversitatOberta de Catalunya. Besides the goals associatedwith the creation of this network and which wewanted to share with other European researchers and experts of other continents, we will also present in this paper some data concerned with the first study carried out on the use of e-portfolios in our country that shows where we are and which trends are the most important for the near future.

¿Hacia una reconversión de los congresos? Propuestas para su viabilidad

Los congresos académicos ycientíficos deberían afrontar en los próximosaños una reconversión de los formatos y contenidospara poder sobrevivir. Se reflexiona sobre el valor 2.0 de los congresos y se proponen posiblessoluciones, como la vinculación a números especiales de revistas académicas consolidadas.La principal propuesta es la creación deCachus, una clasificación de congresos que permitadar más valor a éstos en los procesos de evaluación de los currículums de los investigadores.

La història de la llengua contemporània davant les escriptures populars de l'exili

The studies that have been carried out about the history of contemporary Catalan have used, generally, sources coming from literary, intellectual and politician fields. Often, sources from common people have been omitted. However, they are documents which provide a very important proof to notice not only the Catalan vitality but also the level of the application of the current rules. This article proposes to highlight ordinary writings as an object of study that will allow us analyze several aspects related to the history of language and sociolinguistics. The study focuses on the ordinary writings that emerged in the Republican exile in 1939, a capital period in the production of such documents

Human Capital Composition and Economic Growth at a Regional Level

With this paper we build a two-region model where both innovation and imitation are performed. In particular imitation takes the form of technological spillovers that lagging regions may exploit given certain human capital conditions. We show how the high skill content of each region’s workforce (rather than the average human capital stock) is crucial to determine convergence towards the income level of the leader region and to exploit the technological spillovers coming from the frontier. The same applies to bureaucratic/institutional quality which are conductive to higher growth in the long run. We test successfully our theoretical result over Spanish regions for the period between 1960 and 1997. We exploit system GMM estimators which allow us to correctly deal with endogeneity problems and small sample bias.

The experience of identity transformation process for people living with tetraplegia and paraplegia = El proceso de reconstrucción de la identidad de las personas afectadas de una paraplejia o tetraplejia

A spinal cord injury (SCI) is perceived as a source of biographical disruption, not only at a physical level but also in terms of people’s life stories, their motivation and their self-esteem. The aim of this study is to explore the factors that people with spinal cord injuries perceive as contributing to rebuilding their sense of self. Two focus groups were established from the SCIcommunity, one of which was made up of 14 people with paraplegia and the other of 9 people with tetraplegia. In addition, four individual interviews were conducted with the participants. The results of content analysis show that the two most prominent factors in the process of identity renegotiation are the partial transformation of the subject’s identity followed by a coming to terms with that new identity. To rebuild self-worth, the importance of finding a balance between change and continuity was identified. Renegotiation of identity after a spinal cord injury is a complex phenomenon that greatly influences the SCI individual’s quality of life perceptions. Reaching a balance between the changes experienced due to the injury and finding a sense of continuity can be either facilitated or obstructed by the economic, political, legal, architectural, and social context

Tietoliikenteen tulevaisuuden näkymiä - Etelä-Karjala 2018

Tekniikan kehitys menee vauhdilla eteenpäin ja uusi verkkotekniikoita syntyy koko ajan. Haasteita tuottavat sopivien verkkotekniikoiden löytäminen käyttöön tietylle alueelle ja joissakin tapauksissa joudutaan tyytymään kompromissiratkaisuihin. Lyhyen kantaman langattomat kommunikaatioteknologiat soveltuvat esimerkiksi haja-asutusalueille ja saaristoon, mikäli perinteisen kuidun vetäminen niille alueille ei ole mahdollista. Tässä työssä tuodaan esille niitä langallisia ja langattomia tekniikoita, jotka ovat tällä hetkellä tai tulevaisuudessa merkityksellisiä Etelä-Karjalan kannalta. Osa tekniikoista voi jäädä kokonaan pois käytöstä kymmenen vuoden sisällä tai ne voivat yhdistyä ja muuttaa muotoaan. Työn tuloksena syntyneen kartoituksen perusteella saadaan visio siitä, miltä Etelä-Karjalan tilanne näyttää vuonna 2018. Nyt on jo tiedossa Soneran puhelinlankaverkon alasajo lähivuosina ja kuidun vetäminen viemäriin viemäröintitöiden yhteydessä. Tulevaisuuden kaistankäyttötarpeet ja erilaisten palvelujen lisääntyminen edesauttavat viihdepalveluiden tarjonnan monipuolistumista. Open Access ja triple-play ovat tulevaisuuden termejä. Viihteen lisäksi myös muilla eri osa-alueilla kuten työelämässä, sairaaloissa ja kouluissa on tarvetta laajakaistaisille monipalveluille.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Power Generation

Through indisputable evidence of climate change and its link to the greenhouse gas emissions comes the necessity for change in energy production infrastructure during the coming decades. Through political conventions and restrictions energy industry is pushed toward using bigger share of renewable energy sources as energy supply. In addition to climate change, sustainable energy supply is another major issue for future development plans, but neither of these should come with unbearable price. All the power production types have environmental effects as well as strengths and weaknesses. Although each change comes with a price, right track in minimising the environmental impacts and energy supply security can be found by combining all possible low-carbon technologies and by improving energy efficiency in all sectors, for creating a new power production infrastructure of tolerable energy price and of minor environmental effects. GEMIS-Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems is a life-cycle analysis program which was used in this thesis to make indicative energy models for Finland’s future energy supply. Results indicate that the energy supply must comprise both high capacity nuclear power as well as large variation of renewable energy sources for minimization of all environmental effects and keeping energy price reasonable.

Optimization of short term power trading between Russia, Finland and Baltic countries

Russian and Baltic electricity markets are in the process of reformation and development on the way for competitive and transparent market. Nordic market also undergoes some changes on the way to market integration. Old structure and practices have been expired whereas new laws and rules come into force. The master thesis describes structure and functioning of wholesale electricity markets, cross-border connections between different countries. Additionally methods of cross-border trading using different methods of capacity allocation are disclosed. The main goal of present thesis is to study current situation at different electricity markets and observe changes coming into force as well as the capacity and electricity balances forecast in order to optimize short term power trading between countries and estimate the possible profit for the company.

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Sevillian transport jars in early colonial America: the case of Santa María La Antigua del Darién (Colombia)

Within the scope of the TECNOLONIAL (HAR2008-02834/HIST) project, an archaeologi- cal and archaeometric research is being conduct- ed in order to clarify and systematize transport jars production in the Iberian peninsula and their distribution abroad, especially to the Americas, from the 15th to the 17th century. The production centre of Seville, in the Crown of Castile, produced large glazed and unglazed transport jars, called botijas, which were mainly devoted to the Atlantic trade network. The pres- ent study accounts for the first results obtained from an initial sample of 34 transport jars dated around the 15th-16th centuries from the produc- tion centre of Seville and the reception site of Santa María de la Antigua del Darién (gulf of Urabá, Colombia). This latter site is especially significant since it was the first Spanish founda- tion (1510) in continental America that obtained the title of town, and was the seat for the Governor of the new region called Castilla de Oro, as well as for the first diocese. All individuals were analyzed by means of x-ray fluorescence and diffraction analyses and then compared with the majolica production database from Seville. The results enabled us to define the first refer- ence groups for such modern transport jars, and to get a first insight into the jars coming to the Americas in the early 16th century whose prove- nance can be linked to Seville, but not Triana.

Simple sugar intake and hepatocellular carcinoma: epidemiological and mechanistic insight

Sugar intake has dramatically increased during the last few decades. Specifically, there has been a clear trend towards higher consumption of fructose and high fructose corn syrup, which are the most common added sugars in processed food, soft drinks and other sweetened beverages. Although still controversial, this rising trend in simple sugar consumption has been positively associated with weight gain and obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Interestingly, all of these metabolic alterations have also been related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The purpose of this review is to discuss the evidence coming from epidemiological studies and data from animal models relating the consumption of simple sugars, and specifically fructose, with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and to gain insight into the putative molecular mechanisms involved.