Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Design meetings and the coordination of expertise

The coordination of work and expertise in construction projects is often treated in terms of models or formal rules. However, much is to be gained, if we are to understand it, by examining actual coordination practices. The objective in this article is to address practices of coordination of expertise in the context of design team meetings. The focus is specifically on conversational practices between the structural engineer and the landscape architect part of the design team in a healthcare infrastructure project. The central argument is that the coordination of expertise relied on and was organised by mundane and everyday methods, and not by formal and abstract ones. This argument is drawn from ethnomethodology, a form of sociological analysis that focuses on the situated methods by which activities are produced, but shares concerns found in the literature on actual project management practices. The ethnomethodological stance, however, offers a different perspective on the significance of the empirical reality of projects and a possibility to incorporate within this literature a concern with the ordinary methodical organisation of project activities.

Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

An investigation of the required skills for the delivery of low and zero carbon buildings within a region

The United Kingdom is committed to a raft of requirements to create a low-carbon economy. Buildings consume approximately 40% of UK energy demand. Any improvement on the energy performance of buildings therefore can significantly contribute to the delivery of a low-carbon economy. The challenge for the construction sector and its clients is how to meet the policy requirements to deliver low and zero carbon (LZC) buildings, which spans broader than the individual building level, to requirements at the local and regional levels, and wider sustainability pressures. Further, the construction sector is reporting skills shortages coupled with the need for ‘new skills’ for the delivery of LZC buildings. The aim of this paper is to identify, and better understand, the skills required by the construction sector and its clients for the delivery of LZC buildings within a region. The theoretical framing for this research is regional innovation system (RIS) using a socio-technical network analysis (STNA) methodology. A case study of a local authority region is presented. Data is drawn from a review of relevant local authority documentation, observations and semi-structured interviews from one (project 1) of five school retrofit projects within the region. The initial findings highlight the complexity surrounding the form and operation of the LZC network for project 1. The skills required by the construction sector and its clients are connected to different actor roles surrounding the delivery of the project. The key actors involved and their required skills are: project management and energy management skills required by local authority; project management skills (in particular project planning), communication and research skills required by school end-users; and a ‘technical skill’ relating to knowledge of a particular energy efficient measure (EEM) and use of equipment to implement the EEM is required by the EEM contractors.

On competitive bidding: scoring and position probability graphs

Iso-score curves graph (iSCG) and mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters (SP) and Forecasting Parameters (FP) can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) used in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. The various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe the main SPs and FPs, and the representation of tendering data by means of iSCGs, enable the generation of two new types of graphs that can be very useful for bidders who want to be more competitive: the scoring and position probability graphs.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Upplevda problem med projektstyrningsmetoden Scrum i systemutvecklingsprojekt : En studie av Scrums-relaterade problem hos IT- företag i Borlängeregion

Många projekt misslyckas och en av anledningarna är dålig styrning av projektet i allmänhet och inom IT branschen i synnerhet. Baserad på kritik av de traditionella metoderna under de senaste åren, så har det uppkommit flera lättrörliga metoder som kallas Agila metoder. Scrum är den mest kända Agila metoden som används idag. Metoden lovar goda resultat, men i en artikel ur tidningen Computer Sweden (feb 2009) står det ”siffror visar att nio av tio Scrumprojekt misslyckas”. Artikeln triggade vårt intresse av att ta reda på vilka problem specifika för Scrum som många har kritiserat och valde därför att rikta in vår studie mot detta. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka om lokala IT-företag i Borlänge, Headlight, Sogeti ochstatliga nätkapacitetleverantören Trafikverket ICT lider av det allmänna problem som de andra Scrumanvändarna upplever i samband med användningen av metoden. Denna uppsats har fokus på fyra problemområden: bristfällig dokumentation, sämre effektivitet i arbetsprocessen, sämre effektivitet i arbetsprocessen i stora projekt samt bristande stöd för utvärdering. För vår studie har litteraturstudier och intervjuer genomförts. Intervjuserier gjordes på elva personer hos våra fallföretag. Målgruppen för våra intervjuer är Product Owner (PO) ScrumMaster (SM) och utvecklare. Vi kan efter genomförd studie dra slutsatsen att de allmänna upplevda problem som de andra Scrumanvändaren upplever har vi även kunnat identifiera hos våra fallföretag. Resultaten har bekräftats med insamlade data och vår teoretiska ram. I diskussionen presenterar vi rekommendationer för att undvik relaterade problem med Scrum.

Licenshantering av programvaror i enkommunal verksamhet : En fallstudie över licenshanteringen i Falu kommun

Forskningen visar att förändringar av informationsteknologin och en ökande anskaffning av nya programvaror har lett till underliggande problem som kan drabba heterogena programvarulicensmiljöer och stora organisationer. Underliggande problem i den stora kontexten är mjukvaruhantering. Licenshantering av programvaror är just en förgrening av det stora problemet. Stora organisationer som en kommunal verksamhet är drabbad av det här underliggande problemet på grund av komplexitet hos organisationens miljö. Att tillämpa förändringar i området programvarulicens är omöjligt utan att göra förändringar i hela den organisationsprocess som följer med det. Fallstudiens uppdrag är ett nytt omfattande område kring licenshantering av programvaror som kan vara väldigt lärorikt och en bra erfarenhet att ta del av. Uppsatsen beskriver hur en kommunal verksamhets licenshantering av programvaror ser ut och de problem som finns med den nuvarande licenshanteringsprocessen. Förarbetet med en litteraturstudie tillsammans med datagenereringsmetoderna intervjuer, dokumentstudier och observationer används för att studera fallet på djupet. Målet är att kunna ta fram de nuvarande problem som finns, analysera dem och ge rekommendation för åtgärder som det studerade fallobjektet, Falu Kommuns IT-kontor, kan använda. En rekommendation för en tydlig licenshanteringsprocessmodell anses vara ett bra akademiskt bidrag eftersom problemet med licenshanteringen av programvaror är ett generellt problem. Uppsatsens resultat är en processmodell om licenshantering av programvaror för organisationer med IT-tjänstkunder. Det är en generisk lösning som skulle kunna användas av andra kommunverksamheter och liknande organisationer.

Det är enklare i teorin… Om skolutveckling i praktiken : En fallstudie av ett skolutvecklingsprojekt i en gymnasieskola

This dissertation is a case study dealing with a school development project that took place in an upper secondary school as a result of a merger of two schools with different cultures. The project used a method called “Frirumsmodellen” and was planned to be conducted in three steps. The first was to carry out a cultural analysis in order to map the preconditions to start a school development project. The second was to carry out concrete actions and finally study eventual effects from such activities by doing a second cultural analysis. My role was to be a supervisor in the school development work, but at the same time study how this work was conducted and its impact in the ordinary school day. The dissertation takes its departure in the fact that schools are political governed. The mission of schools is never neutral; it is always an expression of behind laying social forces, ideologies and ideals of the contemporary society. Of this reason, there is a close connection between the macro political level and the micro political level. Another point of departure is the transition from a modern to a post modern society that gives the character to the changes that take place in schools. Steering of schools has partly been treated as a technical implementation problem. Schools contain on going conflicts between different interest groups that, more or less regularly, end up in educational reforms. These reforms generate school development activities in the single school. Undoubtedly, this makes school development to a complex process. At a rather late stage of the study I decided not to fulfil my task to follow the original plan. I instead let the school development project as a model to be in focus. The over all purpose was formulated: How is it possible to understand what happened in the school development project in the Falkgymnasiet and why was it not possible to carry it out as it was said in the project plan? To interpret what took place during the project I did create an interpretation frame of implementation and complexity theory that also made it possible to critically scrutinise the “Frirumsmodellen”. Already in an early stage of the process it was obvious that the “Frirumsmodellen” did not supply any tools to use and it became disconnected from the project. The project in it selves was marginalised and made invisible. The headmaster used the situation to change things she thought were important to develop. As a result, things happened, but most of the involved people did not at first hand connect this to the project. It is, of course, difficult in detail to say what caused what. The complexity theory successively made the hidden patterns revealed, hidden unofficial potentates visible, as well as unpredictable conditions that generated reactions from the personnel in front of a development work. Together this was rather efficient obstacles for not changing this school. I also discuss school development and implementation problems on a general level, for example, the possibility to transform a top-down initiated project to be bottom-up driven and using project as a tool for school development work. It was obvious that headmasters and teachers must be prepared to handle the ideological dimensions of problems schools have to face. Consequently, development work is about making problems visible and to handle these in the intersection point between the intentions of educational policies, pedagogical researchers, school administrators, headmasters, teachers and pupils. The ideological dimension also contains an existential issue. Do I as a teacher share the intentions for the development work? If not, how must I act?

Inovação e gestão de projetos: os "fins" justificam os "meios"

O advento da globalização, a evolução dos meios de comunicação, aliados ao progresso dos recursos de tecnologia da informação, impuseram uma dinâmica de aceleração progressiva aos processos de mudança em geral. Este fenômeno tem feito com que, cada vez mais, as organizações busquem e renovem seus instrumentos de gestão, em prol do aprimoramento de atividades e processos que lhes garantam a inovação de um determinado produto e/ou serviço. Ao mesmo tempo em que a globalização torna os mercados mais competitivos, o “cliente moderno” passa a ter mais opções e a ser mais exigente. Diante desta realidade, é preciso que as organizações se adaptem a este novo cenário, de forma a cada vez mais oferecerem produtos e/ou serviços com maior qualidade e a preços mais competitivos. Entre as medidas que podem ser tomadas para alcançar este objetivo, encontra-se a prática de gerenciar projetos de uma forma mais profissional e planejada. E para auxiliar os gerentes nesta prática, um campo da administração está em ascensão: a Gestão de Projetos a partir da metodologia do Project Management Institute (PMI). Com as constantes fusões, aquisições e, consequentemente, diversificações dos negócios das organizações no atual mundo globalizado, o gerenciamento de projetos pode ser uma opção para que as organizações superem seus desafios e obstáculos relacionados à inovação e, ao mesmo tempo, alcancem seus objetivos de resultados e crescimentos almejados. Enfim, este ensaio teórico se propõe a debater a inovação e a gestão de projetos nas organizações contemporâneas, onde a primeira são os “fins” e a segunda, os “meios”.

Avaliando a gestão dos correios na Bahia através de indicadores de desempenho

A atividade postal se constitui numa das formas mais antigas de prestação de serviços da história da humanidade e tem início com a necessidade de comunicação das pessoas. O setor postal se organiza de acordo com a legislação dos Países, normalmente, em prestação de serviços públicos, a exemplo do que ocorre no Brasil. A realidade mercadológica do mundo tem mudado o relacionamento das organizações com os seus clientes, principalmente em função da globalização. O setor postal Brasileiro experimenta estas mudanças e passa a dedicar mais atenção aos clientes, através das atividades que desenvolve. Uma das maneiras de conferir se a atividade produz o resultado que se espera é a medição. E, analisando o caso dos Correios da Bahia, encontrou-se a oportunidade de implementar um modelo de avaliação de desempenho e gestão que poderá reorientar as atividades da organização, considerando outras variáveis além das operacionais, como financeiras, do ambiente interno, dos clientes e da responsabilidade social da organização. O caso foi estudado a partir de três modelos de avaliação de desempenho e gestão, com a opção por um deles. A escolha do modelo está vinculada aos objetivos do estudo, que são voltados à análise crítica dos indicadores de desempenho e a conseqüente proposição de um modelo capaz de corrigir desvios e adequar o processo de gestão. Dentre os modelos analisados, encontram-se o Quantum (HRONEC), o Capital Intelectual (STEWART) e o Balanced Scorecard (KAPLAN & NORTON), sendo que este último foi o proposto para o acompanhamento da gestão. Em razão das características e particularidades dos Correios da Bahia, foi sugerida uma alteração na arquitetura original do Balanced Scorecard, sendo incluída a perspectiva da responsabilidade social e do aspecto legal no campo das medições. O modelo é composto por cinco perspectivas com seus respectivos objetivos estratégicos, vinculados aos fatores críticos de sucesso e foi adaptado da obra Organização voltada para a estratégia dos autores KAPLAN & NORTON (2001). Com a adoção do modelo proposto é possível que as distorções verificadas na pesquisa sejam corrigidas e a gestão dos Correios da Bahia seja conduzida para o futuro de forma equilibrada.

Um método para definição de indicadores de desempenho aplicado à gestão de projetos de sistemas de informação

O presente trabalho apresenta a investigação realizada sobre a utilização de indicadores de desempenho para tomada de decisões na implementação de projetos de sistemas. Para a realização desta pesquisa, utilizou-se como revisão da literatura a metodologia do Project Management Institute, que aborda o gerenciamento dos projetos de sistemas e o conceito do Balanced Scorecard, que trata da utilização de indicadores na implementação das estratégias. Utilizou-se o BSC para se enfatizar o relacionamento entre os resultados dos projetos e as estratégias. Com auxílio de uma metodologia de natureza qualitativa, buscou-se, através de entrevistas semiestruturadas, identificar as experiências dos entrevistados (quinze executivos) acerca da utilização de indicadores de desempenho. Estas contribuições foram estruturadas em quatro etapas: dificuldades encontradas na implementação de sistemas de indicadores, aspectos a serem monitorados nos projetos, indicadores nas perspectivas e lições aprendidas. A partir da revisão da literatura e resultado da análise das entrevistas, propõe-se no capítulo 5 um roteiro para identificação de projetos prioritários e identificação dos indicadores-chave para gestão dos projetos.