Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilizing encoding in scalable linear optics quantum computing

We present a scheme which offers a significant reduction in the resources required to implement linear optics quantum computing. The scheme is a variation of the proposal of Knill, Laflamme and Milburn, and makes use of an incremental approach to the error encoding to boost probability of success.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Use of the q-Gaussian mutation in evolutionary algorithms

This paper proposes the use of the q-Gaussian mutation with self-adaptation of the shape of the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms. The shape of the q-Gaussian mutation distribution is controlled by a real parameter q. In the proposed method, the real parameter q of the q-Gaussian mutation is encoded in the chromosome of individuals and hence is allowed to evolve during the evolutionary process. In order to test the new mutation operator, evolution strategy and evolutionary programming algorithms with self-adapted q-Gaussian mutation generated from anisotropic and isotropic distributions are presented. The theoretical analysis of the q-Gaussian mutation is also provided. In the experimental study, the q-Gaussian mutation is compared to Gaussian and Cauchy mutations in the optimization of a set of test functions. Experimental results show the efficiency of the proposed method of self-adapting the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms.

Binary games with many players

We examine a problem with n players each facing the same binary choice. One choice is superior to the other. The simple assumption of competition - that an individual's payoff falls with a rise in the number of players making the same choice, guarantees the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium (involving mixed strategies). As n increases, there are two opposing effects. First, events in the middle of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as many others - become more likely, but the payoffs in these events fall. In opposition, events in the tails of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as few others - become less likely, but the payoffs in these events remain high. We provide a sufficient condition (strong competition) under which an increase in the number of players leads to a reduction in the equilibrium probability that the superior choice is made.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

The Absence of Coronary Calcification Does Not Exclude Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease or the Need for Revascularization in Patients Referred for Conventional Coronary Angiography

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate whether the absence of coronary calcium could rule out >= 50% coronary stenosis or the need for revascularization. Background The latest American Heart Association guidelines suggest that a calcium score (CS) of zero might exclude the need for coronary angiography among symptomatic patients. Methods A substudy was made of the CORE64 (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors) multicenter trial comparing the diagnostic performance of 64-detector computed tomography to conventional angiography. Patients clinically referred for conventional angiography were asked to undergo a CS scan up to 30 days before. Results In all, 291 patients were included, of whom 214 (73%) were male, and the mean age was 59.3 +/- 10.0 years. A total of 14 (5%) patients had low, 218 (75%) had intermediate, and 59 (20%) had high pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease. The overall prevalence of >= 50% stenosis was 56%. A total of 72 patients had CS = 0, among whom 14 (19%) had at least 1 >= 50% stenosis. The overall sensitivity for CS = 0 to predict the absence of >= 50% stenosis was 45%, specificity was 91%, negative predictive value was 68%, and positive predictive value was 81%. Additionally, revascularization was performed in 9 (12.5%) CS = 0 patients within 30 days of the CS. From a total of 383 vessels without any coronary calcification, 47 (12%) presented with >= 50% stenosis; and from a total of 64 totally occluded vessels, 13 (20%) had no calcium. Conclusions The absence of coronary calcification does not exclude obstructive stenosis or the need for revascularization among patients with high enough suspicion of coronary artery disease to be referred for coronary angiography, in contrast with the published recommendations. Total coronary occlusion frequently occurs in the absence of any detectable calcification. (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors [CORE-64]; NCT00738218) (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:627-34) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Molecular orbital calculations of two-electron states for P-donor solid-state spin qubits

We theoretically study the Hilbert space structure of two neighboring P-donor electrons in silicon-based quantum computer architectures. To use electron spins as qubits, a crucial condition is the isolation of the electron spins from their environment, including the electronic orbital degrees of freedom. We provide detailed electronic structure calculations of both the single donor electron wave function and the two-electron pair wave function. We adopted a molecular orbital method for the two-electron problem, forming a basis with the calculated single donor electron orbitals. Our two-electron basis contains many singlet and triplet orbital excited states, in addition to the two simple ground state singlet and triplet orbitals usually used in the Heitler-London approximation to describe the two-electron donor pair wave function. We determined the excitation spectrum of the two-donor system, and study its dependence on strain, lattice position, and interdonor separation. This allows us to determine how isolated the ground state singlet and triplet orbitals are from the rest of the excited state Hilbert space. In addition to calculating the energy spectrum, we are also able to evaluate the exchange coupling between the two donor electrons, and the double occupancy probability that both electrons will reside on the same P donor. These two quantities are very important for logical operations in solid-state quantum computing devices, as a large exchange coupling achieves faster gating times, while the magnitude of the double occupancy probability can affect the error rate.

The Use of Smell Identification Tests in the Diagnosis of Parkinson`s Disease in Brazil

Smell identification tests may be of routine clinical value in the differential diagnosis of PD but are subject to cultural variation and have not been systematically evaluated in the Brazilian population. We have applied culturally adapted translations of the University of Pennsylvania 40-item smell identification test (UPSIT-40) and the 16-item identification test from Sniffin` Sticks (SS-16) to nondemented Brazilian PD patients and controls. Pearson`s correlation coefficient between the test scores was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81, n = 204, P < 0.001). To calculate reliability measures for each test we used the diagnosis (either PD or control) as outcome variable for separate logistic regression analyses using the score in the UPSIT-40 or the SS-16 as a covariate. The SS-16 specificity was 89.0% with a sensitivity of 81.1% (106 PD and 118 controls). The UPSIT-40 specificity was 83.5% and its sensitivity 82.1% (95 PD and 109 controls). Regression curves were used to associate an individual`s smell test score with the probability of belonging to the PD, as opposed to the control group. Our data provide support for the use of the UPSIT-40 and SS-16 to help distinguish early PD from controls. (c) 2008 Movement Disorder Society

Anxiety Disorders and Rheumatic Fever: Is There an Association?

Introduction: Findings suggest that obsessive-compulsi e disorder (OCD) and related disorders, referred to as obsessive-compulsive spectrum disorders (OCSDs), are more common in patients with rheumatic fever (RF). Objectives: To determine whether RF or Sydenham`s chorea increases the probability of anxiety disorders in the relatives of individuals with RF with and without SC. Methods: This was a case-Control family study in which 98 probands and 389 first-degree relatives (FDRs) were assessed using structured psychiatric interviews. A Poisson regression model was used to determine whether the presence of any disorder in one family member influences the rate of disorders in the remaining family members. Results: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) occurred more frequently in the FDRs of RF probands than in those of control probands (P=.018). The presence of RF,GAD, or separation anxiety disorder in one family member significantly increased the chance of OCSDs in another member of the family.

Search for Chronic Beryllium Disease Among Sarcoidosis Patients in Ontario, Canada

Chronic beryllium disease (CBD) is clinically similar to other granulomatous diseases such as sarcoidosis. It is often misdiagnosed if a thorough occupational history is not taken. When appropriate, a beryllium lymphocyte proliferation tests (BeLPT) need to be performed. We aimed to search for CBD among currently diagnosed pulmonary sarcoidosis patients and to identify the occupations and exposures in Ontario leading to CBD. Questionnaire items included work history and details of possible exposure to beryllium. Participants who provided a history of previous work with metals underwent BeLPTs and an ELISPOT on the basis of having a higher pretest probability of CBD. Among 121 sarcoid patients enrolled, 87 (72%) reported no known previous metal dust or fume exposure, while 34 (28%) had metal exposure, including 17 (14%) with beryllium exposure at work or home. However, none of these 34 who underwent testing had positive test results. Self-reported exposure to beryllium or metals was relatively common in these patients with clinical sarcoidosis, but CBD was not confirmed using blood assays in this population.

Use of methotrexate in older patients - A risk-benefit assessment

Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

2-perfect directed m-cycle systems can be equationally defined for m=3,4, and 5 only

It is shown that quasigroups constructed using the standard construction from 2-perfect directed m-cycle systems are precisely the finite members of a variety if and only if m=3, 4 or 5.