A política pública para resposta às ameaças químicas, biológicas, radiológicas, nucleares e explosivas

Esta pesquisa objetiva verificar de que forma, no Brasil, as políticas públicas relacionadas às ameaças químicas, biológicas, radiológicas, nucleares e explosivas (QBRNE) contribuem para o preparo de resposta a um incidente de tal natureza. No mundo contemporâneo há uma concentração das populações nos centros urbanos, tornando-as vulneráveis a desastres químicos, biológicos, radiológicos e nucleares, os quais podem ser desencadeados por eventos adversos, intencionais ou não, resultando em grandes impactos humanos, ambientais, materiais, sociais e econômicos à nação. O terrorismo é uma das possibilidades de ocorrência de um grande desastre, utilizando-se principalmente de atentados com explosivos e podendo se valer dos efeitos dos agentes contaminantes. Então, foram pesquisadas e apresentadas políticas públicas e ações do governo federal norte-americano para o trato de ameaças QBRNE, as quais são comparadas à situação prospectada no território brasileiro, por meio da legislação, políticas públicas, orçamento, documentos e bibliografia. Diversas instituições foram avaliadas quanto ao papel a ser desempenhado em uma situação emergencial, sendo os dados tratados por análise de conteúdo e historiografia. A literatura sobre política pública é ampla, com rica discussão sobre as boas práticas de gestão pública, a evolução do papel dos servidores públicos para um ser técnico e político simultaneamente e de que maneira é influenciada a concepção de uma política pública. O Modelo de Fluxos Múltiplos e a Teoria de Equilíbrio Pontuado são usados para compreender o processo dinâmico de construção da agenda decisória no governo federal para o tema estudado. Concluiu-se que as políticas públicas de resposta para ameaças QBRNE surgem dispersas em diversas instituições, promovidas pelas equipes técnicas, de maneira descentralizada e sem uma orientação do governo central, o que acarreta sobreposição de atividades, havendo casos de problemas não tratados, desprezando-se a complementação de recursos e efetivos.

Essays on monetary and banking theory

Esta tese de Doutorado é dedicada ao estudo de instabilidade financeira e dinâmica em Teoria Monet ária. E demonstrado que corridas banc árias são eliminadas sem custos no modelo padrão de teoria banc ária quando a popula ção não é pequena. É proposta uma extensão em que incerteza agregada é mais severa e o custo da estabilidade financeira é relevante. Finalmente, estabelece-se otimalidade de transições na distribui ção de moeda em economias em que oportunidades de trocas são escassas e heterogêneas. Em particular, otimalidade da inflação depende dos incentivos dinâmicos proporcionados por tais transi ções. O capí tulo 1 estabelece o resultado de estabilidade sem custos para economias grandes ao estudar os efeitos do tamanho populacional na an álise de corridas banc árias de Peck & Shell. No capí tulo 2, otimalidade de dinâmica é estudada no modelo de monet ário de Kiyotaki & Wright quando a sociedade é capaz de implementar uma polí tica inflacion ária. Apesar de adotar a abordagem de desenho de mecanismos, este capí tulo faz um paralelo com a an álise de Sargent & Wallace (1981) ao destacar efeitos de incentivos dinâmicos sobre a interação entre as polí ticas monet ária e fiscal. O cap ítulo 3 retoma o tema de estabilidade fi nanceira ao quanti car os custos envolvidos no desenho ótimo de um setor bancário à prova de corridas e ao propor uma estrutura informacional alternativa que possibilita bancos insolventes. A primeira an álise mostra que o esquema de estabilidade ótima exibe altas taxas de juros de longo prazo e a segunda que monitoramento imperfeito pode levar a corridas bancárias com insolvência.

Internacionalização da empresa Marcopolo S.A. : um estudo de caso

A experiência internacional de empresas de países em desenvolvimento é relativamente nova, assim como os estudos sobre o desenvolvimento dessas atividades por esses países e, em particular, pelo Brasil. Esta pesquisa visou contribuir para o conhecimento sobre como as empresas brasileiras se internacionalizam e, para tanto, foi realizado um estudo de caso em profundidade com a Marcopolo S. A., uma organização em estágio avançado de operações internacionais. Apoiando-se em vertentes comportamentais e econômicas da literatura sobre o tema, buscou-se investigar o processo de internacionalização dessa empresa – suas motivações, como ela expandiu seus negócios no exterior, quais foram os principais obstáculos enfrentados e fatores facilitadores do processo. Também se estudou a relação entre internacionalização e resultados financeiros obtidos e a influência de políticas públicas. Atuar em mercados externos foi uma forma de ampliação de mercados e de diversificação de riscos para a empresa e hoje é o foco de sua estratégia de crescimento. O processo se desenvolveu de forma incremental, evoluindo de operações de menor comprometimento e em países mais próximos do Brasil, até a instalação de unidades em mercados mais distantes. Obstáculos de natureza econômica e cultural influenciaram suas atividades e o domínio tecnológico de produtos e de processos, assim como parcerias com montadoras, foram facilitadores do seu desenvolvimento internacional. Os resultados da pesquisa confirmaram os pressupostos da abordagem comportamental, reforçando a hipótese gradualista sustentada pela Teoria de Uppsala. O Paradigma Eclético também explicou os investimentos diretos realizados pela empresa, o que levou à constatação de que as duas linhas teóricas se complementam para explicar o caso. As operações da companhia em mercados externos foram historicamente mais rentáveis do que no mercado doméstico e esses resultados tornaram-se mais expressivos com a instalação de unidades no exterior. Por fim, constatou-se que algumas medidas de apoio governamental geraram efeitos positivos para as exportações, mas que não houve influência de políticas públicas para instalação de fábricas em territórios estrangeiros.

Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

A model of rural conflict : violence and land reform policy in Brazil

In the past ten years the struggle for land in Brazil has taken the shape of invasions of private land by welI organized groups of land less squatters. It is argued in this paper that these invasions and the resulting contlicts are a direct response to the land reform program which has been adopted by the govemment since 1985. which is based on the expropriation of farms and the creation of settlement projects. The set of formal and informal institutions which compromise the land reform program are used as the background for a game-theory model of rural contlicts. T estable implications are derived trom this model with particular emphasis on the etfect of policy variables on violence. These are then tested with panel data at state levei from 1988 to 1995. - It is shown that govemment policy which has the intent of reducing the amount of violence has the opposite etfect of leading to more incentives for contlicts.

Understanding e-government technology transfer: evidence from the transfer of a patent management system from EPO to INPI

Drawing upon Brazilian experience, this research explores some of the key issues to be addressed in using e-government technical cooperation designed to enhance service provision of Patent Offices in developing countries. While the development of software applications is often seen merely as a technical engineering exercise, localization and adaptation are context bounded matters that are characterized by many entanglements of human and non-humans. In this work, technical, legal and policy implications of technical cooperation are also discussed in a complex and dynamic implementation environment characterized by the influence of powerful hidden agendas associated with the arena of intellectual property (IP), which are shaped by recent technological, economic and social developments in our current knowledge-based economy. This research employs two different theoretical lenses to examine the same case, which consists of transfer of a Patent Management System (PMS) from the European Patent Office (EPO) to the Brazilian Patent Office that is locally named ‘Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial’ (INPI). Fundamentally, we have opted for a multi-paper thesis comprising an introduction, three scientific articles and a concluding chapter that discusses and compares the insights obtained from each article. The first article is dedicated to present an extensive literature review on e-government and technology transfer. This review allowed the proposition on an integrative meta-model of e-government technology transfer, which is named E-government Transfer Model (ETM). Subsequently, in the second article, we present Actor-Network Theory (ANT) as a framework for understanding the processes of transferring e-government technologies from Patent Offices in developed countries to Patent Offices in developing countries. Overall, ANT is seen as having a potentially wide area of application and being a promising theoretical vehicle in IS research to carry out a social analysis of messy and heterogeneous processes that drive technical change. Drawing particularly on the works of Bruno Latour, Michel Callon and John Law, this work applies this theory to a longitudinal study of the management information systems supporting the Brazilian Patent Office restructuration plan that involved the implementation of a European Patent Management System in Brazil. Based upon the ANT elements, we follow the actors to identify and understand patterns of group formation associated with the technical cooperation between the Brazilian Patent Office (INPI) and the European Patent Office (EPO). Therefore, this research explores the intricate relationships and interactions between human and non-human actors in their attempts to construct various network alliances, thereby demonstrating that technologies embodies compromise. Finally, the third article applies ETM model as a heuristic frame to examine the same case previously studied from an ANT perspective. We have found evidence that ETM has strong heuristic qualities that can guide practitioners who are engaged in the transfer of e-government systems from developed to developing countries. The successful implementation of e-government projects in developing countries is important to stimulate economic growth and, as a result, we need to understand the processes through which such projects are being implemented and succeed. Here, we attempt to improve understanding on the development and stabilization of a complex social-technical system in the arena of intellectual property. Our preliminary findings suggest that e-government technology transfer is an inherently political process and that successful outcomes require continuous incremental actions and improvisations to address the ongoing issues as they emerge.

Toward a theory of international currency : a step further

We generalize the two-country, two-currency model of Matsuyama, Kiyotaki and Matsui to resolve two "shortcomings" in their approach. First, we endogenize prices and excb.ange rates. Second, we introduce monetary policy. We then use the model to address the following new questions: How does the fact that a currency circulates intemationally affect its purcb.asing power? Where does an intemational currency purcb.ase more? What are the effects on seignorage and welfare when a currency becomes intemational? How is policy affected by concems of currency substitution? How are national monetary policies connected, and what is the scope for international cooperation?

Corporate governance and its influence on the investment decision process of equity market's professionals: An inside view of how corporate governance issues influence the decision-making process of sell-side and buy-side professionals when analyzing Brazilian listed companies

Corporate governance has been in the spotlight for the past two decades, being subject of numerous researches all over the world. Governance is pictured as a broad and diverse theme, evolving through different routes to form distinct systems. This scenario together with 2 types of agency problems (investor vs. management and minorities vs. controlling shareholders) produce different definitions for governance. Usually, studies investigate whether corporate governance structures influence firm performance, and company valuation. This approach implies investors can identify those impacts and later take them into consideration when making investment decisions. However, behavioral finance theory shows that not always investors take rational decisions, and therefore the modus operandi of those professionals needs to be understood. So, this research aimed to investigate to what extent Brazilian corporate governance standards and practices influence the investment decision-making process of equity markets' professionals from the sell-side and buy-side. This exploratory study was carried out through qualitative and quantitative approaches. In the qualitative phase, 8 practitioners were interviewed and 3 dimensions emerged: understanding, pertinence and practice. Based on the interviews’ findings, a questionnaire was formulated and distributed to buy-siders and sell-siders that cover Brazilian stocks. 117 respondents from all over the world contributed to the study. The data obtained were analyzed through structural equation modeling and descriptive statistics. The 3 dimensions became 5 constructs: definition (institutionalized governance, informal governance), pertinence (relevance), practice (valuation process, structured governance assessment) The results of this thesis suggest there is no definitive answer, as the extent to which governance will influence an investment decision process will depend on a number of circumstances which compose the context. The only certainty is the need to present a “corporate governance behavior”, rather than simply establishing rules and regulations at firm and country level.

O Estado e a construção da ordem arquivística em Moçambique (1975-2010)

Esta tese tem como objetivo compreender o Arquivo Histórico de Moçambique (AHM) como lugar de informação arquivística e de ação do Estado em Moçambique, analisando o processo histórico de sua configuração, tendo em conta as implicações desse processo no cenário arquivístico nacional e relação com o projeto pós-colonial de nação, particularmente entre 1975 e 2010. Com base na visão do Estado ampliado em Gramsci e na teoria do Estado como relação em Poulantzas a tese mapeia a dimensão teórica do Estado, cujo poder baseia-se em informação. Esta abordagem, baseada na concepção teórica do Estado como campo de informação, consolida um quadro conceitual fundamental para o entendimento do Estado moçambicano e seu processo histórico de construção. A mesma abordagem conduziu o estudo de caráter histórico na análise dos processos de constituição e disponibilização de arquivos públicos, constituídos no quadro da configuração do AHM dentro do processo histórico de construção do Estado neste país em suas várias redes de interações, envolvendo diversos atores sociais, seja no universo político-administrativo ou arquivístico em si. Constatou-se uma mudança na trajetória do AHM, redefinindo o processo histórico de construção da memória e da identidade nacional através dos arquivos, dentro do processo de construção de uma ordem arquivística politicamente aceite, iniciado em 1975 e consolidado nos anos 2000.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for the catch-up in developing countries

This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled “Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries”, funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation.

SysPRE: systematized process for requirements engineering in knowledge discovery projects

The domain of Knowledge Discovery (KD) and Data Mining (DM) is of growing importance in a time where more and more data is produced and knowledge is one of the most precious assets. Having explored both the existing underlying theory, the results of the ongoing research in academia and the industry practices in the domain of KD and DM, we have found that this is a domain that still lacks some systematization. We also found that this systematization exists to a greater degree in the Software Engineering and Requirements Engineering domains, probably due to being more mature areas. We believe that it is possible to improve and facilitate the participation of enterprise stakeholders in the requirements engineering for KD projects by systematizing requirements engineering process for such projects. This will, in turn, result in more projects that end successfully, that is, with satisfied stakeholders, including in terms of time and budget constraints. With this in mind and based on all information found in the state-of-the art, we propose SysPRE - Systematized Process for Requirements Engineering in KD projects. We begin by proposing an encompassing generic description of the KD process, where the main focus is on the Requirements Engineering activities. This description is then used as a base for the application of the Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations (DEMO) so that we can specify a formal ontology for this process. The resulting SysPRE ontology can serve as a base that can be used not only to make enterprises become aware of their own KD process and requirements engineering process in the KD projects, but also to improve such processes in reality, namely in terms of success rate.

Applying DEMO to model and automate a process in a workflow system: a case study in a city hall

Organizations are Complex systems. A conceptual model of the enterprise is needed that is: coherent the distinguished aspect models constitute a logical and truly integral comprehensive all relevant issues are covered consistent the aspect models are free from contradictions or irregularities concise no superfluous matters are contained in it essential it shows only the essence of the enterprise, i.e., the model abstracts from all realization and implementation issues. The world is in great need for transparency about the operation of all the systems we daily work with, ranging from the domestic appliances to the big societal institutions. In this context the field of enterprise ontology has emerged with the aim to create models that help to understand the essence of the construction and operation of complete systems; more specifically, of enterprises. Enterprise ontology arises in the way to look through the distracting and confusing appearance of an enterprise right into its deep kernel. This, from the perspective of the system designer gives him the tools needed to design a successful system in a way that’s reflects the desires and needs of the workers of the enterprise. This project’s context is the use of DEMO (Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations) for (re)designing or (re)engineering of an enterprise, namely a process of the construction department of a city hall, the lack of a well-founded theory about the construction and operation of this processes that was the motivation behind this work. The purpose of studying applying the DEMO theory and method was to optimize the process, automating it as much as possible, while reducing paper and time spent between tasks and provide a better service to the citizens.

O estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta de pleno emprego, estabilidade e condições dignas de trabalho para o Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do Estado como empregador de última Instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 13. 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa: ENEP, 2008.

O processo de criação do programa Universidade para Todos - PROUNI

From the end of the 80s, the Brazilian higher education experience strong growth, coming from the private sector, which would intensify further in the late 90th Higher education has become a lucrative business. With a drop in the number of students entering and strong competition, the number of idle places in private institutions of higher education reached 49.5% in 2004. That same year, by Measure, was the University for All Program (PROUNI) program, to include high school students from public higher education, offering scholarships to those students in private HEIs. In exchange, the IES gain tax exemption. The objective of this research is to investigate the game of interest occurred in the formulation of this program and identify the model and the political game and has led to the creation of PROUNI, analyzing the process occurred since the wording of a bill, the issue of Measure Law and that the legitimacy PROUNI, with the most important changes made initial model. Since the first draft of the Law to the final Act, the PROUNI was disfigured in its main points, as the percentage of stock for paying students, the process of selection of stock and bond of the IES program. Throughout the process of creating the program, it is quite clear the performance of the institutions representing the private higher education. As reference for the analysis was based on Rational Choice Theory of Political Science. The basic argument of the methods based on rational choice is the maximization of the benefit will be the main motivation of individuals, but they can give that your goals can be achieved more effectively through institutional action and thereby discover that their conduct is shaped by institutions. Thus, individuals rationally choose to get to a certain extent constrained to join in certain institutions, whether voluntarily or not. The PROUNI was submitted by government and public policy covered by the mystical aura of the discourse of social justice and economic development, as in higher education includes a stratum of people who would not have access to the university, due to restrictions in the supply network public higher education. However, the greatest benefit from the program are the private HEIs, which through a difficult time in a scenario marked by high competition and idleness of nearly half of the vacancies offered. The PROUNI became a program that prioritizes access and not the residence of the student to higher education. More serious than a supporting program for students Fellows is a program supporting the institutions of private education