Passivity Framework for Modeling, Composing and Mitigating Cyber Attacks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.

Material culture in massive multiplayer online role-playing games : the social, cultural and educational meanings of virtual goods in world of warcraft

Michaela Rizzolli

Playing with sound and gesture in digital audio games

This article introduces the genre of a digital audio game and discusses selected play interaction solutions implemented in the Audio Game Hub, a prototype designed and evaluated in the years 2014 and 2015 at the Gamification Lab at Leuphana University Lüneburg.1 The Audio Game Hub constitutes a set of familiar playful activities (aiming at a target, reflex-based reacting to sound signals, labyrinth exploration) and casual games (e.g. Tetris, Memory) adapted to the digital medium and converted into the audio sphere, where the player is guided predominantly or solely by sound. The authors will discuss the design questions raised at early stages of the project, and confront them with the results of user experience testing performed on two groups of sighted and one group of visually impaired gamers.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Improving speaking skill in the students of third, fifth and seventh levels at la salle languajes center (clus)through teaching technques such as : Role playing, student' presentations, games and grouppair word

Tesis (Licenciado en Lenguas Castellana, Inglés y Francés).--Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Ciencias de La Educación. Licenciatura en Lengua Castellana, Inglés y Francés, 2013

The implementation of tpr-games and imagery for the enhancement of a1 vocabulary in kindergarten at Francisco de Paula Santander School

Tesis (Licenciado en Lenguas Castellana, Inglés y Francés).--Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Ciencias de La Educación. Licenciatura en Lengua Castellana, Inglés y Francés, 2014

Safety and complexity: the inter-departmental threats to patient safety in the operating department

Purpose: Current thinking about ‘patient safety’ emphasises the causal relationship between the work environment and the delivery of clinical care. This research draws on the theory of Normal Accidents to extend this analysis and better understand the ‘organisational factors’ that threaten safety. Methods: Ethnographic research methods were used, with observations of the operating department setting for 18 month and interviews with 80 members of hospital staff. The setting for the study was the Operating Department of a large teaching hospital in the North-West of England. Results: The work of the operating department is determined by inter-dependant, ‘tightly coupled’ organisational relationships between hospital departments based upon the timely exchange of information, services and resources required for the delivery of care. Failures within these processes, manifest as ‘breakdowns’ within inter-departmental relationships lead to situations of constraint, rapid change and uncertainty in the work of the operating department that require staff to break with established routines and work with increased time and emotional pressures. This means that staff focus on working quickly, as opposed to working safely. Conclusion: Analysis of safety needs to move beyond a focus on the immediate work environment and individual practice, to consider the more complex and deeply structured organisational systems of hospital activity. For departmental managers the scope for service planning to control for safety may be limited as the structured ‘real world’ situation of service delivery is shaped by inter-department and organisational factors that are perhaps beyond the scope of departmental management.

Legal consideration on Convention for the Prevention of Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (at sea) and assessment of its implementation in Iran (The London [dumping] Convention)

Making use of sea, as a place for dumping of wastes and other materials from human activities wasn’t forbidden before creation of the convention on the prevention of marine pollution by dumping of wastes and other matters (London Convention). Therefore, industrial countries, without any specific consideration, were dumping their wastes into the world’s seas. Many years and before the beginning of rapid development of industry, the great self- purification of seas were preventing some of discharging problems. But gradually, the increase of industrial development activities, exceeded the production of wastes and other matters, and this led to the misuse of world’s seas and oceans as a dump site. One of the most important consequences of 1972 Stockholm World Conference was to focusing world attention on threats have jeopardized marine environment balance. World countries` leaders committed in Stockholm to begin protecting the environment. Finally, this movement at marine environment section led to the creation of London Convention in the same year. London Convention was concluded for cooperating between countries at December 29, 1972 to promote effective control of all marine environment polluting resources and to prevent marine pollution by dumping wastes and other matters. Then it was opened for signature to other countries. At last, after 15 states signature, this convention was entered in to force at August 30.1975. Ratification and execution of London Convention resulted in coordinated performance of countries in marine waste management. Common actions with supports and cooperation of different international, regional, governmental and non-governmental organizations and agencies prevent marine pollution by dumping of wastes and other matters. Due to the importance of wastes in our marine and coastal areas, investigation of the performance of London Convention can identify the lack of regulations and lack of regulation supports about marine pollution prevention by dumping of wastes and other matters in Iran. Considering this issue, proper protection of seas will be achieved. London Convention has been studied here to achieve intended purposes. In first chapter, generalities about marine environment, including the importance and necessity of marine environment protection, with the focus on some internal and international resources of environmental law accompanying with marine pollution and its recourses, and finally, due to the study theme, dumping of wastes and other matters at seas with its impacts have been investigated .In the section of international measures, a brief history of marine pollution and marine environment international law with international law framework, exclusively for controlling of wastes and other material discharge at seas and oceans has been reviewed. In second chapter, obligations, amendments, and annexes of London Convention have been investigated and classified. The obligations have been categorized in to legal obligations and technical and organizational obligations. In former section, subject ,purpose, territory, exceptions, rights and duties of parties, convention amendments,… and in latter, special requirements for wastes assessment, determination of pollutants` permissible limit, site selection and type of discharge selection, design principles for marine environment quality monitoring program, and discharge license issuance mechanism have been studied. In third chapter, due to the examination of convention performance in Iran, the internal law system for marine environment conservation and its pollution has been mentioned in detail. Considering this, two issues have been compared .firstly, convention obligations with regional treaties that Iran as a party to them and secondly, Iranian internal law there of .Finally, common and different aspects of these issues have been determined. At last, recommendations and strategies for convention enforcement and conformity of its obligations with internal regulations have been presented. Furthermore, translation of convention English text has been reviewed and its protocol has been translated.

Danger theory: the link between AIS and IDS?

We present ideas about creating a next generation Intrusion Detection System (IDS) based on the latest immunological theories. The central challenge with computer security is determining the difference between normal and potentially harmful activity. For half a century, developers have protected their systems by coding rules that identify and block specific events. However, the nature of current and future threats in conjunction with ever larger IT systems urgently requires the development of automated and adaptive defensive tools. A promising solution is emerging in the form of Artificial Immune Systems (AIS): The Human Immune System (HIS) can detect and defend against harmful and previously unseen invaders, so can we not build a similar Intrusion Detection System (IDS) for our computers? Presumably, those systems would then have the same beneficial properties as HIS like error tolerance, adaptation and self-monitoring. Current AIS have been successful on test systems, but the algorithms rely on self-nonself discrimination, as stipulated in classical immunology. However, immunologist are increasingly finding fault with traditional self-nonself thinking and a new ‘Danger Theory’ (DT) is emerging. This new theory suggests that the immune system reacts to threats based on the correlation of various (danger) signals and it provides a method of ‘grounding’ the immune response, i.e. linking it directly to the attacker. Little is currently understood of the precise nature and correlation of these signals and the theory is a topic of hot debate. It is the aim of this research to investigate this correlation and to translate the DT into the realms of computer security, thereby creating AIS that are no longer limited by self-nonself discrimination. It should be noted that we do not intend to defend this controversial theory per se, although as a deliverable this project will add to the body of knowledge in this area. Rather we are interested in its merits for scaling up AIS applications by overcoming self-nonself discrimination problems.

Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games

Attaran and colleagues in an open letter to WHO expressed their concern about the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro and the threat posed by the Zika epidemic (Attaran 2016). We agree that Zika virus is of great public health concern and much remains to be known about this disease. Care should be taken to reduce the risk of infection, especially to pregnant women. However, we argue that this is not sufficient reason for changing the original plans for the Games, in particular because of the time of the year when they will take place. The present article outlines several scientific results related to Zika and mosquito-borne infectious diseases dynamics that we believe ratify the current position of WHO in not endorsing the postponing or relocation of the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games (WHO 2016).

The manual of chess: containing the elementary principles of the game; illustrated with numerous diagrams, recent games and original problems.

Mode of access: Internet.