Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Of Structural Denial: A Narratological Study of the Structural Disintegration of the Novel Form

If an opening to the argument of this dissertation is of imperative necessity, one might tentatively begin with Herbert Quain, born in Roscommon, Ireland, author of the novels The God of the Labyrinth (1933) and April March (1936), the short-story collection Statements (1939), and the play The Secret Mirror (undated). To a certain extent, this idiosyncratic Irish author, who hailed from the ancient province of Connacht, may be regarded as a forerunner of the type of novels which will be considered in this dissertation. Quain was, after all, the unconscious creator of one of the first structurally disintegrated novels in the history of western literature, April March. His first novel, The God of the Labyrinth, also exhibits elements which are characteristic of structurally disintegrated fiction, for it provides the reader with two possible solutions to a mysterious crime. As a matter of fact, one might suggest that Quain’s debut novel offers the reader the possibility to ignore the solution to the crime and carry on living his or her readerly life, turning a blind eye to the novel itself. It may hence be argued that Quain’s first novel is in fact a compound of three different novels. It is self-evident that the structure of Quain’s oeuvre is of an experimental nature, combining geometrical precision with authorial innovation, and one finds in it a higher consideration for formal defiance than for the text itself. In other words, the means of expression are the concern of the author and not, interestingly, the textual content. April March, for example, is a novel which regresses back into itself, its first chapter focussing on an evening which is preceded by three possible evenings which, in turn, are each preceded by three other, dissimilar, possible evenings. It is a novel of backward-movement, and it is due to this process of branching regression that April March contains within itself at least nine possible novels. Structure, therefore, paradoxically controls the text, for it allows the text to expand or contract under its formal limitations. In other words, the formal aspects of the novel, usually associated with the restrictive device of a superior design, contribute to a liberation of the novel’s discourse. It is paradoxical only in the sense that the idea of structure necessarily entails the fixation of a narrative skeleton that determines how plot and discourse interact, something which Quain flouts for the purposes of innovation. In this sense, April March’s convoluted structure allows for multiple readings and interpretations of the same text, consciously germinating narratives within itself, producing different texts from a single, unique source. Thus, text and means of expression are bonded by a structural design that, rather than limiting, liberates the text of the novel.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

As 'conversas informais' extraprocessuais como meio de prova em processo penal

In the present thesis, we examine the approach to the so-called “informal conversations”, especially between a suspect or defendant and criminal police authorities. Our goal is to understand if criminal police authorities are allowed to testify about the content of these conversations, revealing facts that the suspect or defendant may have shared with them, as well as about evidence that they may have acquired through these statements. Firstly, we briefly present the notion of “informal conversations” and the great variety of situations they may encompass: intra or extra-procedural; prior or subsequent to someone acquires the status of defendant. Secondly, we analyse some of the principles and rules that are involved in this controversial issue: principles concerning the procedural structure, organization and dynamic; principles concerning the production and assessment of evidence in the trial hearing; principles concerning the prosecution and the powers of criminal police authorities; the procedural status of the defendant; the rules concerning the reading of statements in the trial hearing; the rules concerning hearsay testimonies. Thirdly, we go through the great amount of case law on the so-called “informal conversations” and related matters, analysing the most relevant cases and the arguments that sustain them, as well as the legal literature. Our goal is to understand the evolution, throughout the last two decades, of the different opinions regarding the approach to the various situations in which “informal conversations” may occur and in which the admissibility of a testimony by criminal police authorities is questioned. Finally, we defend a different approach for testimonies by criminal police authorities prior and subsequent to someone acquiring the status of defendant. We see the moment when someone acquires the status of defendant as a border area in the admissibility of “informal conversations”, because from then on the statements have to be collected and assessed according to the law, so all the other conversations (or any other evidence) collected informally are irrelevant. As to the specific case of the testimony about the re-enactment of the crime, given the high degree of difficulty in separating the defendant’s contributions that may be considered essential and those that may be considered less useful, but still relevant, we support the qualification of the defendant’s contributions as inseparable from the re-enactment, allowing it to be replicated and assessed in the trial hearing with no restrictions.

Machine ethics via logic programming

Machine ethics is an interdisciplinary field of inquiry that emerges from the need of imbuing autonomous agents with the capacity of moral decision-making. While some approaches provide implementations in Logic Programming (LP) systems, they have not exploited LP-based reasoning features that appear essential for moral reasoning. This PhD thesis aims at investigating further the appropriateness of LP, notably a combination of LP-based reasoning features, including techniques available in LP systems, to machine ethics. Moral facets, as studied in moral philosophy and psychology, that are amenable to computational modeling are identified, and mapped to appropriate LP concepts for representing and reasoning about them. The main contributions of the thesis are twofold. First, novel approaches are proposed for employing tabling in contextual abduction and updating – individually and combined – plus a LP approach of counterfactual reasoning; the latter being implemented on top of the aforementioned combined abduction and updating technique with tabling. They are all important to model various issues of the aforementioned moral facets. Second, a variety of LP-based reasoning features are applied to model the identified moral facets, through moral examples taken off-the-shelf from the morality literature. These applications include: (1) Modeling moral permissibility according to the Doctrines of Double Effect (DDE) and Triple Effect (DTE), demonstrating deontological and utilitarian judgments via integrity constraints (in abduction) and preferences over abductive scenarios; (2) Modeling moral reasoning under uncertainty of actions, via abduction and probabilistic LP; (3) Modeling moral updating (that allows other – possibly overriding – moral rules to be adopted by an agent, on top of those it currently follows) via the integration of tabling in contextual abduction and updating; and (4) Modeling moral permissibility and its justification via counterfactuals, where counterfactuals are used for formulating DDE.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Comprehensive income: evidence from Portuguese listed companies on reporting choices and value relevance

This work project aims at analysing choices related to Comprehensive income (CI) of Portuguese listed firms and understanding the reasons behind them. Additionally, it studies the relevance of CI versus Net Income (NI). It was found that firm’s size and volume of Other comprehensive income (OCI) are positively related with the choice for separate statements while smaller firms with positive NI and negative OCI tend to disclose less information about taxes. The value relevance of CI proved to be superior to that of NI but OCI seems to have no incremental value relevance.

IAS/IFRS mandatory adoption and cross-border M&A

This study investigates the effect of the mandatory implementation of IAS/IFRS on cross-border M&A activity. I test the hypothesis that the improvement in the comparability of financial statements among the adopting countries facilitates crossborder transactions. According to the expectations, I find support for enhanced crossborder M&As following the mandatory adoption of IFRS due to a likely increase in the comparability of financial reports. Additionally, listed targets from IFRS adopting countries do experience stronger positive influence on foreign M&A transactions than unlisted target from adopting countries and listed targets from IFRS non-adopting countries.

Financial reporting and inventory disclosure in the extractive industry

Companies in the Extractive Industry (E.I) have some particularities and special regulation that provides an interesting study of inventory and reporting in their financial statements. The theme thus chosen here, aims to make a comparison of the various methods of reporting inventories (recognition, measurement, presentation and disclosures) as well as the different accounting regulations in place. Moreover, inventories are a current asset which represents a large per cent of total assets. Another is that it also provides an opportunity for analysis of the different regulations in place for disclosures; the different standards implemented- IAS, US GAAP and/or regional standards.

Paving the way? Female leadership and attitudes toward gender

In a male dominant political world, the cases of female leadership are still a novelty. Looking at the episodes where a woman was head of state or government, the impact on attitudes and perceptions toward gender equality is evaluated. By instrumenting the presence of a female in government with the proportion of female seats in parliament, the results seem to suggest that individuals, when exposed to a woman as an executive political leader, report a higher tendency to agree with statements of gender discrimination.

Ações encobertas

The global and increasingly technological society requires the States to adopt security measures that can maintain the balance between the freedom, on the one hand, and the security and the respect for fundamental rights of a democratic state, on the other. A State can only achieve this aim if it has an effective judicial system and in particular a criminal procedure adequate to the new criminogenic realities. In this context, the national legislator has adopted, following other international legal systems, special means of obtaining proof more stringent of rights. Within those special means are included the covert actions, that, being a means to use sparingly, is a key element to fight against violent and highly organized crime. Therefore, the undercover agent, voluntary by nature, develops a set of activities that enables the investigation to use other means of taking evidence and/or probationary diligences itself, with the purpose of providing sufficient proof to the case file. In this milieu, given the high risks involved during the investigation, as well as after its completion, the undercover agent can act upon fictitious identity. This measure can be maintained during the evidentiary phase of the trial. Similarly, given the latent threat that the undercover agent suffers by its inclusion in criminal organizations, as well as the need for his inclusion in future covert actions it is crucial that his participation as a witness in the trial is properly shielded. Thus, when the undercover agent provides, exceptionally, statements in the trial, he shall do so always through videoconference with voice and image distortion. This measure can guarantee the anonymity of the undercover agent and concomitantly, that the adversarial principle and the right of the accused to a fair trial is not prejudiced since, in those circumstances, the diligence will be supervised in its entirety (in the audience and with the undercover agent) by a judge.

Reporting cash flow evidence from campanies listed in the Euronext Lisbon

Based on the 2013 and 2014 consolidated statements of cash flows of companies listed in Euronext Lisbon, this Work Project analyses the cash flow disclosures, namely if they are in accordance with International Accounting Standards 7, specifically the format, the choice of classification interests, dividends paid and received and the composition of cash and cash equivalents. Additionally, quality of income ratio is analyzed due to its importance for users of financial statements. The results show evidence of uniformity and consistency in the use of the direct method for reporting operational activities in both years, but there are some differences regarding the disclosure of interests and dividends, paid and received, respectively.

A importância da comunicação estratégica na alteração de comportamentos na sociedade : o caso Sociedade Ponto Verde

A comunicação estratégica poderá ser entendida como a comunicação alinhada com a estratégia global de uma organização para alcançar o seu posicionamento estratégico. Ou seja, para alcançar o sucesso, uma organização precisa de ter uma comunicação consistente com a sua identidade e, ao mesmo tempo, adequada ao seu público-alvo e ao tipo de sector onde se insere. Só desta forma consegue conquistar a confiança e fidelidade dos consumidores, essenciais para o alcance dos objectivos. Em relação à alteração comportamentos, é essencial que as empresas costruam uma estratégia de comunicação coerente e consistente, adaptando as mensagens e os públicos-alvo escolhidos. Neste âmbito da alteração de comportamentos, estudou-se neste trabalho a Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV), uma associação portuguesa sem fins lucrativos, que actua no âmbito da gestão e reciclagem de resíduos de embalagens. Procurou estudar-se a evolução da sua comunicação ao longo dos anos e a forma como adaptou as suas mensagens, de forma a conseguir incutir na sociedade portuguesa a importância do comportamento de reciclagem de resíduos. Neste estudo, procedeu-se a uma análise individualizada de cada uma das campanhas de comunicação da SPV e, posteriormente, aplicou-se um inquérito por questionário, para verificar a eficácia das mesmas campanhas perante o público-alvo. A metodologia utilizada neste trabalho consistiu na distribuição de um inquérito por questionário online, que permitiu recolher uma amostra probabilística por conveniência. Em seguida, recolhidos e tratados os dados referentes às 482 respostas recebidas, utilizou-se o programa SPSS (Stastitical Package for the Social Sciences) para analisar, tratar e discutir os resultados obtidos. Estes resultados demonstraram que, de facto, não houve uma grande percentagem de inquiridos que se lembram das campanhas da SPV. Os resultados são positivos e não desmentem a qualidade e coerência das mensagens, mas a verdade é que a percentagem de indivíduos que não se lembra de algumas campanhas chega a ser elevada (em especial nas campanhas iniciais da organização, quando existia falta de uma estratégia coerente). Justifica-se este facto, em parte, pelo excesso de informação e estímulos a que as pessoas estão sujeitas, pelo que a informação que retêm não fica para sempre, acabando por dar lugar a outras informações. Os indivíduos são inconscientemente selectivos com a informação que processam e guardam, pois não seria possível guardar toda a informação que lhes é transmitida. No que diz respeito à comunicação estratégica que visa alterar uma atitude e, posteriormente, um comportamento, conclui-se que, no geral, o comportamento das pessoas inquiridas aparenta ter sido influenciado pela comunicação da SPV, caso contrário, as respostas afirmativas quanto à reciclagem e de concordância com algumas das afirmações teriam sido inferiores. Ou seja, mesmo reconhecendo o carácter um pouco enviesado da amostra (não deverá ser considerada representativa da população portuguesa), é possível dizer que a estratégia de comunicação da SPV (em especial a partir de 2005) foi eficiente. Palavras-

Portugal Telecom

This Masters Thesis aims to be used in class for teaching purposes. The primary objective of the case is to understand the way critical anti-takeover measures can be used in a hostile takeover environment. The case portrays not only all defensive tools used by PT against Sonaecom (conditioned by the Portuguese Securities Code) but also all major interactions with relevant stakeholders. Communication is positioned as a central tool to stakeholders’ interaction. As a consequence of that, students are supposed to comprehend how PT used this instrument to implement its defensive strategy. This Masters Thesis was written essentially from PT’s perspective but it also includes all available Sonacom’s public statements and data. It joins several different points of view (from PT’s CEO and top management to PT’s employees and labor unions). Therefore, it is not supposed to mach exactly to one’s perspective of Sonecom’s takeover attempt but instead to be an aggregate view of the case. The mains idea is to promote debate in order to create an interactive class environment among session’s attendants. Main areas developed in this Thesis are Mergers and Acquisitions, Corporate Communication and Corporate Governance. The case's recommended questions are in line with these areas. Suggested answers for these questions are balanced with some academic documentation that can be complemented with some in-class notes according to the session's objectives.

A prestação de contas e o regime especial da invalidade das deliberações

The obligation of accountability, or the need to make known the economic and financial state of the companies, ceased to be a purely internal activity, becoming a necessity of a general nature. The knowledge of the financial state of the companies, wich is provided by accountability documents, reveals more and more elementary for all interested in the results obtained, whether in terms of profitability, either with a view to assessing the economic and financial health of the companies. This essay aims to a deeper analysis to matters of accountability, in particular, to the special invalidity scheme of corporate resolutions, wich is enshrined in art. 69º of Portuguese Companies Code. We chose to reference the accrual basis accounts approval, through the analysis of financial statements, laying down a set of principles and criteria applicable to different entities. After consideration of the special scheme versed in art. 69º, we conclude there is a certain ambiguity in the adoption of the criteria do delimit each of the hypotheses of the precept, since the legislator uses indeterminate concepts. Nevertheless, if there is a rule, this will be the annulment, and only exceptionally will apply the nullity scheme, where there is injury to the public interest and the interests of the creditors.