Assessment of inflammatory burden contralateral to the symptomatic carotid stenosis using high-resolution ultrasmall, superparamagnetic iron oxide-enhanced MRI

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE It is well known that the vulnerable atheromatous plaque has a thin, fibrous cap and large lipid core with associated inflammation. This inflammation can be detected on MRI with use of a contrast medium, Sinerem, an ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO). Although the incidence of macrophage activity in asymptomatic disease appears low, we aimed to explore the incidence of MRI-defined inflammation in asymptomatic plaques in patients with known contralateral symptomatic disease. METHODS Twenty symptomatic patients underwent multisequence MRI before and 36 hours after USPIO infusion. Images were manually segmented into quadrants, and the signal change in each quadrant was calculated after USPIO administration. A mixed mathematical model was developed to compare the mean signal change across all quadrants in the 2 groups. Patients had a mean symptomatic stenosis of 77% compared with 46% on their asymptomatic side, as measured by conventional angiography. RESULTS There were 11 (55%) men, and the median age was 72 years (range, 53 to 84 years). All patients had risk factors consistent with severe atherosclerotic disease. All symptomatic carotid stenoses had inflammation, as evaluated by USPIO-enhanced imaging. On the contralateral sides, inflammatory activity was found in 19 (95%) patients. Contralaterally, there were 163 quadrants (57%) with a signal loss after USPIO when compared with 217 quadrants (71%) on the symptomatic side (P=0.007). CONCLUSIONS - This study adds weight to the argument that atherosclerosis is a truly systemic disease. It suggests that investigation of the contralateral side in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis can demonstrate inflammation in 95% of plaques, despite a mean stenosis of only 46%. Thus, inflammatory activity may be a significant risk factor in asymptomatic disease in patients who have known contralateral symptomatic disease. Patients with symptomatic carotid disease should have their contralateral carotid artery followed up.

Phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of Pasteurella multocida isolated from pigs at slaughter in New Zealand

AIMS: To examine pigs at slaughter in New Zealand for the presence of Pasteurella multocida, and to determine for isolates, their biochemical profi les, somatic and capsular types, and the presence or absence of the HSB and toxA genes, associated with haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) and progressive atrophic rhinitis (PAR), respectively. METHODS: Swabs from 173 lungs, 158 palatine tonsils and 82 nasal passages of pigs at two abattoirs in New Zealand were cultured for P. multocida using conventional techniques, and isolated colonies were subjected to biochemical tests for identi- fi cation of biovars. Somatic serotyping was conducted using an agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) test. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays were used to confi rm phenotypic identifi cation of colonies using species-specifi c primers, capsule type using serogroup-specifi c primers and multiplex PCR, and to test for the presence of HSB and toxA genes. RESULTS: Pasteurella multocida was isolated from 11/173 (6.4%) lung, 32/158 (20.2%) palatine tonsil and 5/82 (6.1 %) nasal swab samples, a total of 48 isolates from 413 samples (11.6%). Isolation rates per farm ranged from 1–53% of tissue samples collected from pigs 5–6 months of age. On phenotypic characterisation, isolates were allocated to seven main biovars, viz 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 12, and a dulcitol-negative variant of Biovar 8, the majority (30/48) being Biovar 3. Of the 42 isolates for which somatic serotyping was conducted, 10% were Serovar 1, 79% were Serovar 3, 2% were Serovar 6,1, 2% were Serovar 12, and 7% could not be typed. All 48 isolates were confi rmed as P. multocida using a species-specifi c PCR. In the capsular multiplex PCR, 92% of isolates were Capsular (Cap) type A, 2% were Cap D, and 6% could not be typed. None of the samples were positive for the HSB or toxA genes. CONCLUSION: Serovars or capsular types of P. multocida associated with HS or PAR in pigs were not detected. Establishment of species-specifi c, capsular and toxin PCR assays allowed the rapid screening of isolates of P. multocida, while serotyping provided an additional tool for epidemiological and tracing purposes.

Visions of Past Glory: Nationalism and the Construction of Early Finnish History

The study is an examination of how the distant national past has been conceived and constructed for Finland from the mid-sixteenth century to the Second World War. The author argues that the perception and need of a national 'Golden Age' has undergone several phases during this period, yet the perceived Greatness of the Ancient Finns has been of great importance for the growth and development of the fundamental concepts of Finnish nationalism. It is a question reaching deeper than simply discussing the Kalevala or the Karelianism of the 1890s. Despite early occurrences of most of the topics the image-makers could utilize for the construction of an Ancient Greatness, a truly national proto-history only became a necessity after 1809, when a new conceptual 'Finnishness' was both conceived and brought forth in reality. In this process of nation-building, ethnic myths of origin and descent provided the core of the nationalist cause - the defence of a primordial national character - and within a few decades the antiquarian issue became a standard element of the nationalist public enlightenment. The emerging, archaeologically substantiated, nationhood was more than a scholarly construction: it was a 'politically correct' form of ethnic self-imaging, continuously adapting its message to contemporary society and modern progress. Prehistoric and medieval Finnishness became even more relevant for the intellectual defence of the nation during the period of Russian administrative pressure 1890-1905. With independence the origins of Finnishness were militarized even further, although the 'hot' phase of antiquarian nationalism ended, as many considered the Finnish state reestablished after centuries of 'dependency'. Nevertheless, the distant past of tribal Finnishness and the conceived Golden Age of the Kalevala remained obligating. The decline of public archaeology is quite evident after 1918, even though the national message of the antiquarian pursuits remained present in the history culture of the public. The myths, symbols, images, and constructs of ancient Finnishness had already become embedded in society by the turn of the century, like the patalakki cap, which remains a symbol of Finnishness to this day. The method of approach is one of combining a broad spectrum of previously neglected primary sources, all related to history culture and the subtle banalization of the distant past: school books, postcards, illustrations, festive costumes, drama, satirical magazines, novels, jewellery, and calendars. Tracing the origins of the national myths to their original contexts enables a rather thorough deconstruction of the proto-historical imaginary in this Finnish case study. Considering Anthony D. Smith's idea of ancient 'ethnies' being the basis for nationalist causes, the author considers such an approach in the Finnish case totally misplaced.

Now that I have had this experience I am looking at studying…

The Community Aspirations Program in Education (CAP-ED) was started by CQUniversity’s Office of Indigenous Engagement in 2013. CAP-ED’s aim was to focus on building aspirations through small manageable learning projects, and to increase Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students’ participation in higher education. Initially the scope of the project was to develop and deliver an accredited certificate-level program to help Indigenous students transition into tertiary education by a) improving pathways and b) addressing their current knowledge gaps. However, the initial investigatory process and community consultation found that a more localised, targeted and intimate approach would work more effectively. In addition, a free or affordable certificate course that would meet community needs was beyond the financial scope of the project. From here, the Office of Indigenous Engagement began to explore other possibilities.

Molecular Mechanisms of Androgen Receptor Interactions

The androgen receptor (AR) mediates the effects of the male sex-steroid hormones (androgens), testosterone and 5?-dihydrotestosterone. Androgens are critical in the development and maintenance of male sexual characteristics. AR is a member of the steroid receptor ligand-inducible transcription factor family. The steroid receptor family is a subgroup of the nuclear receptor superfamily that also includes receptors for the active forms of vitamin A, vitamin D3, and thyroid hormones. Like all nuclear receptors, AR has a conserved modular structure consisting of a non-conserved amino-terminal domain (NTD), containing the intrinsic activation function 1, a highly conserved DNA-binding domain, and a conserved ligand-binding domain (LBD) that harbors the activation function 2. Each of these domains plays an important role in receptor function and signaling, either via intra- and inter-receptor interactions, interactions with specific DNA sequences, termed hormone response elements, or via functional interactions with domain-specific proteins, termed coregulators (coactivators and corepressors). Upon binding androgens, AR acquires a new conformational state, translocates to the nucleus, binds to androgen response elements, homodimerizes and recruits sequence-specific coregulatory factors and the basal transcription machinery. This set of events is required to activate gene transcription (expression). Gene transcription is a strictly modulated process that governs cell growth, cell homeostasis, cell function and cell death. Disruptions of AR transcriptional activity caused by receptor mutations and/or altered coregulator interactions are linked to a wide spectrum of androgen insensitivity syndromes, and to the pathogenesis of prostate cancer (CaP). The treatment of CaP usually involves androgen depletion therapy (ADT). ADT achieves significant clinical responses during the early stages of the disease. However, under the selective pressure of androgen withdrawal, androgen-dependent CaP can progress to an androgen-independent CaP. Androgen-independent CaP is invariably a more aggressive and untreatable form of the disease. Advancing our understanding of the molecular mechanisms behind the switch in androgen-dependency would improve our success of treating CaP and other AR related illnesses. This study evaluates how clinically identified AR mutations affect the receptor s transcriptional activity. We reveal that a potential molecular abnormality in androgen insensitivity syndrome and CaP patients is caused by disruptions of the important intra-receptor NTD/LBD interaction. We demonstrate that the same AR LBD mutations can also disrupt the recruitment of the p160 coactivator protein GRIP1. Our investigations reveal that 30% of patients with advanced, untreated local CaP have somatic mutations that may lead to increases in AR activity. We report that somatic mutations that activate AR may lead to early relapse in ADT. Our results demonstrate that the types of ADT a CaP patient receives may cause a clustering of mutations to a particular region of the receptor. Furthermore, the mutations that arise before and during ADT do not always result in a receptor that is more active, indicating that coregulator interactions play a pivotal role in the progression of androgen-independent CaP. To improve CaP therapy, it is necessary to identify critical coregulators of AR. We screened a HeLa cell cDNA library and identified small carboxyl-terminal domain phosphatase 2 (SCP2). SCP2 is a protein phosphatase that directly interacts with the AR NTD and represses AR activity. We demonstrated that reducing the endogenous cellular levels of SCP2 causes more AR to load on to the prostate specific antigen (PSA) gene promoter and enhancer regions. Additionally, under the same conditions, more RNA polymerase II was recruited to the PSA promoter region and overall there was an increase in androgen-dependent transcription of the PSA gene, revealing that SCP2 could play a role in the pathogenesis of CaP.

Graduation portrait including Otto Gersuny, class of 1908, K. & K. Gymnasium; Teplitz, Germany (Teplice, Czech Republic).

Otto Gersuny (1890-1964), third row from the front wearing cap (see arrow)

Mast cells and endothelial erosion: Implications for human atherothrombotic disease

More than 40% of all deaths in Finland are caused by atherosclerosis. The complications of atherosclerosis are due to either detachment of the luminal endothelium (erosion) or rupture of the fibrous cap of an atherosclerotic plaque (rupture). As a result, a thrombus is formed at the site of the intimal lesion. Indeed, erosions cause roughly 40% of sudden atherothrombotic deaths and 25% of all atherothrombotic deaths. Erosions are overrepresented in young subjects, diabetics, smokers and women. This dissertation focuses on endothelial erosion. Endothelial erosions were studied in the context of arterial grafting and vascular inflammation. Special attention was given to the role of intimal mast cells and the methodological viewpoints of reliable identification of endothelial erosions. Mast cells are inflammatory cells mostly known for their ability to cause allergic symptoms. In addition to occurring in skin and mucosal surfaces, mast cells are abundant in arterial intima and adventitia. In this study, mast cells were found to associate with endothelial erosions in non-lesional and atherosclerotic human coronary arteries. Thus, mast cells may participate in atherogenesis at the initial phases of the disease process already. We also showed that the mast cell proteases tryptase, chymase, and cathepsin G are all capable of cleaving molecules essential for endothelial cell-to-cell and cell-to-extracellular matrix interactions, such as VE-cadherin and fibronectin. Symptom-causing carotid plaques were found to contain more inflammatory cells, especially mast cells, than non-symptom-causing plaques. Furthermore, the atherogenic serum lipid profile and the degree of carotid stenosis turned out to correlate with the density of carotid plaque mast cells. Apoptotic and proliferating cells were more abundant in non-symptom causing plaques (active renewal of endothelial cells), but erosions were larger in symptom-causing plaques (capacity of endothelial regeneration exceeded). The process of identifying endothelial erosions with immunostainings has been ambiguous, since both endothelial cells and platelets express largely the same antigens. This may have caused inaccurate interpretations of the presence of endothelial erosion. In the last substudy of this thesis we developed a double immunostaining method for simultaneous identification of endothelial cells and platelets. This method enables more reliable identification of endothelial erosions.

Officer guards and inmates, including Norbert Pollock, of the Boergermoor Labor Camp; Germany.

Viehhandler (cattle dealer) Norbert Pollock of Ruethen, Westpflahlen (standing center in dark pants, white t-shirt and cap)

p53 and little brother p53/47: linking IRES activities with protein functions

The tumor suppressor p53 represents a paradigm for gene regulation. Its rapid induction in response to DNA damage conditions has been attributed to both increased half-life of p53 protein and also increased translation of p53 mRNA. Recent advances in our understanding of the post-transcriptional regulation of p53 include the discovery of internal ribosome entry sites (IRESs) within the p53 mRNA. These IRES elements regulate the translation of the full length as well as the N-terminally truncated isoform, p53/47. The p53/47 isoform is generated by alternative initiation at an internal AUG codon present within the p53 ORF. The aim of this review is to summarize the role of translational control mechanisms in regulating p53 functions. We discuss here in detail how diverse cellular stress pathways trigger alterations in the cap-dependent and cap-independent translation of p53 mRNA and how changes in the relative expression levels of p53 isoforms result in more differentiated p53 activity.

Molecular genetic studies on nemaline myopathy and related disorders

Nemaline myopathy (NM) is a rare muscle disorder characterised by muscle weakness and nemaline bodies in striated muscle tissue. Nemaline bodies are derived from sarcomeric Z discs and may be detected by light microscopy. The disease can be divided into six subclasses varying from very severe, in some cases lethal forms to milder forms. NM is usually the consequence of a gene mutation and the mode of inheritance varies between NM subclasses and different families. Mutations in six genes are known to cause NM; nebulin (NEB), alpha-actin, alpha-tropomyosin (TPM3), troponin T1, beta-tropomyosin (TPM2) and cofilin 2, of which nebulin and -actin are the most common. One of the main interests of my research is NEB. Nebulin is a giant muscle protein (600-900 kDa) expressed mainly in the thin filaments of striated muscle. Mutations in NEB are the main cause of autosomal recessive NM. The gene consists of 183 exons. Thus being gigantic, NEB is very challenging to investigate. NEB was screened for mutations using denaturing High Performance Liquid Chromatography (dHPLC) and sequencing. DNA samples from 44 families were included in this study, and we found and published 45 different mutations in them. To date, we have identified 115 mutations in NEB in a total of 96 families. In addition, we determined the occurrence in a world-wide sample cohort of a 2.5 kb deletion containing NEB exon 55 identified in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. In order to find the seventh putative NM gene a genome-wide linkage study was performed in a series of Turkish families. In two of these families, we identified a homozygous mutation disrupting the termination signal of the TPM3 gene, a previously known NM-causing gene. This mutation is likely a founder mutation in the Turkish population. In addition, we described a novel recessively inherited distal myopathy, named distal nebulin myopathy, caused by two different homozygous missense mutations in NEB in six Finnish patients. Both mutations, when combined in compound heterozygous form with a more disruptive mutation, are known to cause NM. This study consisted of molecular genetic mutation analyses, light and electron microscopic studies of muscle biopsies, muscle imaging and clinical examination of patients. In these patients the distribution of muscle weakness was different from NM. Nemaline bodies were not detectable with routine light microscopy, and they were inconspicuous or absent even using electron microscopy. No genetic cause was known to underlie cap myopathy, a congenital myopathy characterised by cap-like structures in the muscle fibres, until we identified a deletion of one codon of the TPM2 gene, in a 30-year-old cap myopathy patient. This mutation does not change the reading frame of the gene, but a deletion of one amino acid does affect the conformation of the protein produced. In summary, this thesis describes a novel distal myopathy caused by mutations in the nebulin gene, several novel nebulin mutations associated with nemaline myopathy, the first molecular genetic cause of cap myopathy, i.e. a mutation in the beta-tropomyosin gene, and a founder mutation in the alpha-tropomyosin gene underlying autosomal recessive nemaline myopathy in the Turkish population.

Graduation portrait including Otto Gersuny, class of 1908, K. & K. Gymnasium; Teplitz, Germany (Teplice, Czech Republic).

Otto Gersuny (1890-1964), third row from the front wearing cap (see arrow)

Lost in Translation : Translation Mechanisms in Production of Cocksfoot Mottle Virus Proteins

The present study focuses on the translational strategies of Cocksfoot mottle virus (CfMV, genus Sobemovirus), which infects monocotyledonous plants. CfMV RNA lacks the 5'cap and the 3'poly(A) tail that ensure efficient translation of cellular messenger RNAs (mRNAs). Instead, CfMV RNA is covalently linked to a viral protein VPg (viral protein, genome-linked). This indicates that the viral untranslated regions (UTRs) must functionally compensate for the lack of the cap and poly(A) tail. We examined the efficacy of translation initiation in CfMV by comparing it to well-studied viral translational enhancers. Although insertion of the CfMV 5'UTR (CfMVe) into plant expression vectors improved gene expression in barley more than the other translational enhancers examined, studies at the RNA level showed that CfMVe alone or in combination with the CfMV 3'UTR did not provide the RNAs translational advantage. Mutation analysis revealed that translation initiation from CfMVe involved scanning. Interestingly, CfMVe also promoted translation initiation from an intercistronic position of dicistronic mRNAs in vitro. Furthermore, internal initiation occurred with similar efficacy in translation lysates that had reduced concentrations of eukaryotic initiation factor (eIF) 4E, suggesting that initiation was independent of the eIF4E. In contrast, reduced translation in the eIF4G-depleted lysates indicated that translation from internally positioned CfMVe was eIF4G-dependent. After successful translation initiation, leaky scanning brings the ribosomes to the second open reading frame (ORF). The CfMV polyprotein is produced from this and the following overlapping ORF via programmed -1 ribosomal frameshift (-1 PRF). Two signals in the mRNA at the beginning of the overlap program approximately every fifth ribosome to slip one nucleotide backwards and continue translation in the new -1 frame. This leads to the production of C-terminally extended polyprotein, which encodes the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). The -1 PRF event in CfMV was very efficient, even though it was programmed by a simple stem-loop structure instead of a pseudoknot, which is usually required for high -1 PRF frequencies. Interestingly, regions surrounding the -1 PRF signals improved the -1 PRF frequencies. Viral protein P27 inhibited the -1 PRF event in vivo, putatively by binding to the -1 PRF site. This suggested that P27 could regulate the occurrence of -1 PRF. Initiation of viral replication requires that viral proteins are released from the polyprotein. This is catalyzed by viral serine protease, which is also encoded from the polyprotein. N-terminal amino acid sequencing of CfMV VPg revealed that the junction of the protease and VPg was cleaved between glutamate (E) and asparagine (N) residues. This suggested that the processing sites used in CfMV differ from the glutamate and serine (S) or threonine (T) sites utilized in other sobemoviruses. However, further analysis revealed that the E/S and E/T sites may be used to cleave out some of the CfMV proteins.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Tukien tuotannosta irrottamisen vaikutukset viljan, naudanlihan ja sianlihan tarjontaan Suomessa

This research discusses decoupling CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) support and impacts which may occur on grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork in Finland. The study presents the definitions and studies on decoupled agricultural subsidies, the development of supply of grain, beef and pork in Finland and changes in leading factors affecting supply between 1970 and 2005. Decoupling agricultural subsidies means that the linkage between subsidies and production levels is disconnected; subsidies do not affect the amount produced. The hypothesis is that decoupling will decrease the amounts produced in agriculture substantially. In the supply research, the econometric models which represent supply of agricultural products are estimated based on the data of prices and amounts produced. With estimated supply models, the impacts of changes in prices and public policies, can be forecasted according to supply of agricultural products. In this study, three regression models describing combined cultivation areas of rye, wheat, oats and barley, and the supply of beef and pork are estimated. Grain cultivation area and supply of beef are estimated based on data from 1970 to 2005 and supply of pork on data from 1995 to 2005. The dependencies in the model are postulated to be linear. The explanatory variables in the grain model were average return per hectare, agricultural subsidies, grain cultivation area in the previous year and the cost of fertilization. The explanatory variables in the beef model were the total return from markets and subsidies and the amount of beef production in the previous year. In the pork model the explanatory variables were the total return, the price of piglet, investment subsidies, trend of increasing productivity and the dummy variable of the last quarter of the year. The R-squared of model of grain cultivation area was 0,81, the model of beef supply 0,77 and the model of pork supply 0,82. Development of grain cultivation area and supply of beef and pork was estimated for 2006 - 2013 with this regression model. In the basic scenario, development of explanatory variables in 2006 - 2013 was postulated to be the same as they used to be in average in 1995 - 2005. After the basic scenario the impacts of decoupling CAP subsidies and domestic subsidies on cultivation area and supply were simulated. According to the results of the decoupling CAP subsidies scenario, grain cultivation area decreases from 1,12 million hectares in 2005 to 1,0 million hectares in 2013 and supply of beef from 88,8 million kilos in 2005 to 67,7 million kilos in 2013. Decoupling domestic and investment subsidies will decrease the supply of pork from 194 million kilos in 2005 to 187 million kilos in 2006. By 2013 the supply of pork grows into 203 million kilos.