University admission marks in Catalonia: Some highlights from the empirical research

The results of the examinations taken by graduated high school studentswho want to enrol at a Catalan university are here studied. To do so,the authors address several issues related to the equity of the system:reliability of grading, difficulty and discrimination power of the exams.The general emphasis is put upon the concurrent research and empiricalevidence about the properties of the examination items and scores. Aftera discussion about the limitations of the exams' format and appropriatenessof the instruments used in the study, the article concludes with somesuggestions to improve such examinations.

Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be neither a difussion, nor a Markov process as the examples in section 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

A BPE model for the Burgers' equation

We study the BPE (Brownian particle equation) model of the Burgers equationpresented in the preceeding article [6]. More precisely, we are interestedin establishing the existence and uniqueness properties of solutions usingprobabilistic techniques.

An empirical evaluation of small area estimators

This paper investigates the comparative performance of five small areaestimators. We use Monte Carlo simulation in the context of boththeoretical and empirical populations. In addition to the direct andindirect estimators, we consider the optimal composite estimator withpopulation weights, and two composite estimators with estimatedweights: one that assumes homogeneity of within area variance andsquare bias, and another one that uses area specific estimates ofvariance and square bias. It is found that among the feasibleestimators, the best choice is the one that uses area specificestimates of variance and square bias.

Almost sure testability of classes of densities

Let a class $\F$ of densities be given. We draw an i.i.d.\ sample from a density $f$ which may or may not be in $\F$. After every $n$, one must make a guess whether $f \in \F$ or not. A class is almost surely testable if there exists such a testing sequence such that for any $f$, we make finitely many errors almost surely. In this paper, several results are given that allowone to decide whether a class is almost surely testable. For example, continuity and square integrability are not testable, but unimodality, log-concavity, and boundedness by a given constant are.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

A simple optimised search heuristic for the job-shop scheduling problem

This paper presents a simple Optimised Search Heuristic for the Job Shop Scheduling problem that combines a GRASP heuristic with a branch-and-bound algorithm. The proposed method is compared with similar approaches and leads to better results in terms of solution quality and computing times.

Biplots of compositional data

The singular value decomposition and its interpretation as alinear biplot has proved to be a powerful tool for analysing many formsof multivariate data. Here we adapt biplot methodology to the specifficcase of compositional data consisting of positive vectors each of whichis constrained to have unit sum. These relative variation biplots haveproperties relating to special features of compositional data: the studyof ratios, subcompositions and models of compositional relationships. Themethodology is demonstrated on a data set consisting of six-part colourcompositions in 22 abstract paintings, showing how the singular valuedecomposition can achieve an accurate biplot of the colour ratios and howpossible models interrelating the colours can be diagnosed.

Correspondence analysis of two transition tables

The case of two transition tables is considered, that is two squareasymmetric matrices of frequencies where the rows and columns of thematrices are the same objects observed at three different timepoints. Different ways of visualizing the tables, either separatelyor jointly, are examined. We generalize an existing idea where asquare matrix is descomposed into symmetric and skew-symmetric partsto two matrices, leading to a decomposition into four components: (1)average symmetric, (2) average skew-symmetric, (3) symmetricdifference from average, and (4) skew-symmetric difference fromaverage. The method is illustrated with an artificial example and anexample using real data from a study of changing values over threegenerations.

Pitfalls to avoid when measuring institutions: Is "Doing Business" damaging business?

Over recent years, both governments and international aid organizations have been devoting large amounts of resources to simplifying the procedures for setting up and formalizing firms. Many of these actions have focused on reducing the initial costs of setting up the firm, disregarding the more important role of business registers as a source of reliable information for judges, government departments and, above all, other firms. This reliable information is essential for reducing transaction costs in future dealings with all sorts of economic agents, both public and private. The priorities of reform policies should therefore be thoroughly reviewed, stressing the value of the legal institutions rather than trivializing them as is often the case.

Hypernormal densities

We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibilityand closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, makingthem particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation.Our methods generate forecasts that improve on standard methods based on AR-ARCH models relying on normal or Student's t-distributional assumptions.

Country effects in ISSP-1993 environmental data: Comparison of SEM approaches

Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.