INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Value creation and capital market valuation in the forest product industry

Tämä työ tähtää löytämään mahdollisia poikkeamia metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina-arvoissa ja tunnistaa tekijöitä jotka ovat vaikuttaneet pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yritysten tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä sekä yrityksen markkina-arvoon. Tämän työn päätavoitteena on kehittää diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuva arvonmääritysmalli jolla mitataan metsäteollisuusyritysten tosiasiallista arvoa yritysten suorituskyvyn ja arvoajureiden perusteella. Lisäksi tavoitteena on löytää selittäviä tekijöitä havaituille eroille yritysten tosiasiallisesten arvojen ja markkinaperusteisten arvojen välisillä. Teoreettisessa osassa esitellään rahoitusteorian pääpiirteet arvonmäärityksen kannalta, aikasempia tutkimuksia sekä metsäteollisuuden toimialakohtaisia tekijöitä. Empiirisessä osassa kehittetään diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuvaa arvonmääritymalli. Otos koostuu 32 suurimmasta Pohjoismaisesta ja Pohjoisamerikkalaisesta metsäteollisuusyrityksestä vuonna 2000. Tutkimuksen aikavälien 1991 -2000. Tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia jonka mukaan kasvuinvestoinnit eivät luo positiivisia odotuksia yrityksen tulevaisuuden kassavirroista. Tarkemmat löydöt ovat, että arvon luominen tutkimusajanjakson aikana ei vaikuttanut yhtä merkittävästi pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yrityksen tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä kuin mitatut tosiasialliset arvot. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina- arvot olivat keskimäärin riippuvaisempia itse yrityksestä, kuin sen toiminnasta.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

CRTC2 polymorphism as a risk factor for the incidence of metabolic syndrome in patients with solid organ transplantation.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Metabolic syndrome after transplantation is a major concern following solid organ transplantation (SOT). The CREB-regulated transcription co-activator 2 (CRTC2) regulates glucose metabolism. The effect of CRTC2 polymorphisms on new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) was investigated in a discovery sample of SOT recipients (n1=197). Positive results were tested for replication in two samples from the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS, n2=1294 and n3=759). Obesity and other metabolic traits were also tested. Associations with metabolic traits in population-based samples (n4=46'186, n5=123'865, n6>100,000) were finally analyzed. In the discovery sample, CRTC2 rs8450-AA genotype was associated with NODAT, fasting blood glucose and body mass index (Pcorrected<0.05). CRTC2 rs8450-AA genotype was associated with NODAT in the second STCS replication sample (odd ratio (OR)=2.01, P=0.04). In the combined STCS replication samples, the effect of rs8450-AA genotype on NODAT was observed in patients having received SOT from a deceased donor and treated with tacrolimus (n=395, OR=2.08, P=0.02) and in non-kidney transplant recipients (OR=2.09, P=0.02). Moreover, rs8450-AA genotype was associated with overweight or obesity (n=1215, OR=1.56, P=0.02), new-onset hyperlipidemia (n=1007, OR=1.76, P=0.007), and lower high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (n=1214, β=-0.08, P=0.001). In the population-based samples, a proxy of rs8450G>A was significantly associated with several metabolic abnormalities. CRTC2 rs8450G>A appears to have an important role in the high prevalence of metabolic traits observed in patients with SOT. A weak association with metabolic traits was also observed in the population-based samples.The Pharmacogenomics Journal advance online publication, 8 December 2015; doi:10.1038/tpj.2015.82.

Sickness certification in primary care: a survey on views and practices among Swiss physicians.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Studies from several countries (Scandinavia, United Kingdom) report that general practitioners (GPs) experience problems in sickness certification. Our study explored views of Swiss GPs towards sickness certification, their practice and experience, professional skills and problematic interactions with patients. METHODS: We conducted an online survey among GPs throughout Switzerland, exploring behaviour of physicians, patients and employers with regard to sickness certification; GPs' views about sickness certification; required competences for certifying sickness absence, and approaches to advance their competence. We piloted the questionnaire and disseminated it through the networks of the five Swiss academic institutes for primary care. RESULTS: We received 507 valid responses (response rate 50%). Only 43/507 GPs experienced sickness certification as problematic per se, yet 155/507 experienced problems in sickness certification at least once a week. The 507 GPs identified estimating a long-term prognosis about work capacity (64%), handling conflicts with patients (54%), and determining the reduction of work capacity (42%) as problematic. Over 75% would welcome special training opportunities, e.g., on sickness certifications during residency (93%), in insurance medicine (81%), and conflict management (80%). CONCLUSION: Sickness certification as such does not present a major problem to Swiss GPs, which contrasts with the experience in Scandinavian countries and in the UK. Swiss GPs did identify specific tasks of sickness certification as problematic. Training opportunities on sick-leave certification and insurance medicine in general were welcomed.

Pediatric advance care planning from the perspective of health care professionals: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric advance care planning differs from the adult setting in several aspects, including patients' diagnoses, minor age, and questionable capacity to consent. So far, research has largely neglected the professionals' perspective. AIM: We aimed to investigate the attitudes and needs of health care professionals with regard to pediatric advance care planning. DESIGN: This is a qualitative interview study with experts in pediatric end-of-life care. A qualitative content analysis was performed. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We conducted 17 semi-structured interviews with health care professionals caring for severely ill children/adolescents, from different professions, care settings, and institutions. RESULTS: Perceived problems with pediatric advance care planning relate to professionals' discomfort and uncertainty regarding end-of-life decisions and advance directives. Conflicts may arise between physicians and non-medical care providers because both avoid taking responsibility for treatment limitations according to a minor's advance directive. Nevertheless, pediatric advance care planning is perceived as helpful by providing an action plan for everyone and ensuring that patient/parent wishes are respected. Important requirements for pediatric advance care planning were identified as follows: repeated discussions and shared decision-making with the family, a qualified facilitator who ensures continuity throughout the whole process, multi-professional conferences, as well as professional education on advance care planning. CONCLUSION: Despite a perceived need for pediatric advance care planning, several barriers to its implementation were identified. The results remain to be verified in a larger cohort of health care professionals. Future research should focus on developing and testing strategies for overcoming the existing barriers.

Soins palliatifs en établissements médico-sociaux: Caractéristiques et spécificités [Palliative Care in Nursing Homes: Characteristics and Specificities].

Elderly patients in palliative situations residing in a nursing home present characteristics and specificities that clearly distinguish them from patients with advanced cancer. Besides the difficulty to define a precise prognosis, their many comorbidities, their communication difficulties because of cognitive disorders, their high sensitivity to primary and secondary effects of drugs render their management a real challenge for physician and caregivers. Accompanying these patients at the end of their life also raises many ethical problems, especially when they are no longer able to express their wishes and have not previously expressed advance directives.

Altered Sleep Homeostasis in Rev-erbα Knockout Mice.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The nuclear receptor REV-ERBα is a potent, constitutive transcriptional repressor critical for the regulation of key circadian and metabolic genes. Recently, REV-ERBα's involvement in learning, neurogenesis, mood, and dopamine turnover was demonstrated suggesting a specific role in central nervous system functioning. We have previously shown that the brain expression of several core clock genes, including Rev-erbα, is modulated by sleep loss. We here test the consequences of a loss of REV-ERBα on the homeostatic regulation of sleep. METHODS: EEG/EMG signals were recorded in Rev-erbα knockout (KO) mice and their wild type (WT) littermates during baseline, sleep deprivation, and recovery. Cortical gene expression measurements after sleep deprivation were contrasted to baseline. RESULTS: Although baseline sleep/wake duration was remarkably similar, KO mice showed an advance of the sleep/wake distribution relative to the light-dark cycle. After sleep onset in baseline and after sleep deprivation, both EEG delta power (1-4 Hz) and sleep consolidation were reduced in KO mice indicating a slower increase of homeostatic sleep need during wakefulness. This slower increase might relate to the smaller increase in theta and gamma power observed in the waking EEG prior to sleep onset under both conditions. Indeed, the increased theta activity during wakefulness predicted delta power in subsequent NREM sleep. Lack of Rev-erbα increased Bmal1, Npas2, Clock, and Fabp7 expression, confirming the direct regulation of these genes by REV-ERBα also in the brain. CONCLUSIONS: Our results add further proof to the notion that clock genes are involved in sleep homeostasis. Because accumulating evidence directly links REV-ERBα to dopamine signaling the altered homeostatic regulation of sleep reported here are discussed in that context.

Synergy Sources, Target Autonomy and Integration in Acquisitions

Determining the appropriate level of integration is crucial to realizing value from acquisitions. Most prior research assumes that higher integration implies the removal of autonomy from target managers, which in turn undermines the functioning of the target firm if it entails unfamiliar elements for the acquirer. Using a survey of 86 acquisitions to obtain the richness of detail necessary to distinguish integration from autonomy, the authors argue and find that integration and autonomy are not the opposite ends of a single continuum. Certain conditions (e.g., when complementarity rather than similarity is the primary source of synergy) lead to high levels of both integration and autonomy. In addition, similarity negatively moderates the relationship between complementarity and autonomy when the target offers both synergy sources. In contrast, similarity does not moderate the link between complementarity and integration. The authors' findings advance scholarly understanding about the drivers of implementation strategy and in particular the different implementation strategies acquiring managers deploy when they attempt to leverage complementarities, similarities, or both.

Cultural Diffusion Was the Main Driving Mechanism of the Neolithic Transition in Southern Africa

It is well known that the Neolithic transition spread across Europe at a speed of about 1 km/yr. This result has been previously interpreted as a range expansion of the Neolithic driven mainly by demic diffusion (whereas cultural diffusion played a secondary role). However, a long-standing problem is whether this value (1 km/yr) and its interpretation (mainly demic diffusion) are characteristic only of Europe or universal (i.e. intrinsic features of Neolithic transitions all over the world). So far Neolithic spread rates outside Europe have been barely measured, and Neolithic spread rates substantially faster than 1 km/yr have not been previously reported. Here we show that the transition from hunting and gathering into herding in southern Africa spread at a rate of about 2.4 km/yr, i.e. about twice faster than the European Neolithic transition. Thus the value 1 km/yr is not a universal feature of Neolithic transitions in the world. Resorting to a recent demic-cultural wave-of-advance model, we also find that the main mechanism at work in the southern African Neolithic spread was cultural diffusion (whereas demic diffusion played a secondary role). This is in sharp contrast to the European Neolithic. Our results further suggest that Neolithic spread rates could be mainly driven by cultural diffusion in cases where the final state of this transition is herding/pastoralism (such as in southern Africa) rather than farming and stockbreeding (as in Europe)

Effect of Seasonal Dynamics on Queen Densities of the Argentine Ant (Linepithema Humile) in an Invaded Natural Area of the NE Iberian Peninsula

The annual elimination of large numbers of Argentine ant queens near the advance front of an invasion could be a useful tool for weakening the species’ dispersion and, therefore, limiting its establishment in non-invaded areas. However, before carrying out trials to test the effectiveness of this method it would be essential to have sufficient knowledge of the effect of seasonal dynamics acting on the queens’ densities of the species in order to determine the most favourable period of the year to act. We analyzed the seasonal densities and nest dynamics of Argentine ant queens in an invaded Mediterranean natural ecosystem. We observed that the queens’ density varied depending on the season of the year and that this variation was mainly due to the seasonal dynamics of nest aggregations in winter and ant dispersions in summer. The greatest densities per litre of nest soil were observed in winter (December to March, approximately) and the lowest densities were observed in summer ( June to July). This information is essential for improving current knowledge of the Argentine ant’s biology and developing control methods based on the elimination of queens in invaded natural areas

Palaeolithic Populations and Waves of Advance

The wave-of-advance model has been previously applied to Neolithic human range expansions, yielding good agreement to the speeds inferred from archaeological data. Here, we apply it for the first time to Palaeolithic human expansions by using reproduction and mobility parameters appropriate to hunter-gatherers (instead of the corresponding values for preindustrial farmers). The order of magnitude of the predicted speed is in agreement with that implied by the AMS radiocarbon dating of the lateglacial human recolonization of northern Europe (14.2–12.5 kyr BP). We argue that this makes it implausible for climate change to have limited the speed of the recolonization front. It is pointed out that a similar value for the speed can be tentatively inferred from the archaeological data on the expansion of modern humans into the Levant and Europe (42–36 kyr BP)

The Role of the Delay Time in the Modeling of Biological Range Expansions

The time interval between successive migrations of biological species causes a delay time in the reaction-diffusion equations describing their space-time dynamics. This lowers the predicted speed of the waves of advance, as compared to classical models. It has been shown that this delay-time effect improves the modeling of human range expansions. Here, we demonstrate that it can also be important for other species. We present two new examples where the predictions of the time-delayed and the classical (Fisher) approaches are compared to experimental data. No free or adjustable parameters are used. We show that the importance of the delay effect depends on the dimensionless product of the initial growth rate and the delay time. We argue that the delay effect should be taken into account in the modeling of range expansions for biological species

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.