Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Thermal reactions of the major hydrocarbon components of biomass gasification gas

Gasification of biomass is an efficient method process to produce liquid fuels, heat and electricity. It is interesting especially for the Nordic countries, where raw material for the processes is readily available. The thermal reactions of light hydrocarbons are a major challenge for industrial applications. At elevated temperatures, light hydrocarbons react spontaneously to form higher molecular weight compounds. In this thesis, this phenomenon was studied by literature survey, experimental work and modeling effort. The literature survey revealed that the change in tar composition is likely caused by the kinetic entropy. The role of the surface material is deemed to be an important factor in the reactivity of the system. The experimental results were in accordance with previous publications on the subject. The novelty of the experimental work lies in the used time interval for measurements combined with an industrially relevant temperature interval. The aspects which are covered in the modeling include screening of possible numerical approaches, testing of optimization methods and kinetic modelling. No significant numerical issues were observed, so the used calculation routines are adequate for the task. Evolutionary algorithms gave a better performance combined with better fit than the conventional iterative methods such as Simplex and Levenberg-Marquardt methods. Three models were fitted on experimental data. The LLNL model was used as a reference model to which two other models were compared. A compact model which included all the observed species was developed. The parameter estimation performed on that model gave slightly impaired fit to experimental data than LLNL model, but the difference was barely significant. The third tested model concentrated on the decomposition of hydrocarbons and included a theoretical description of the formation of carbon layer on the reactor walls. The fit to experimental data was extremely good. Based on the simulation results and literature findings, it is likely that the surface coverage of carbonaceous deposits is a major factor in thermal reactions.

Large-eddy simulation of wind flows over complex terrains for wind energy applications

Wind energy has obtained outstanding expectations due to risks of global warming and nuclear energy production plant accidents. Nowadays, wind farms are often constructed in areas of complex terrain. A potential wind farm location must have the site thoroughly surveyed and the wind climatology analyzed before installing any hardware. Therefore, modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows over complex terrains containing, e.g. hills, forest, and lakes is of great interest in wind energy applications, as it can help in locating and optimizing the wind farms. Numerical modeling of wind flows using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become a popular technique during the last few decades. Due to the inherent flow variability and large-scale unsteadiness typical in ABL flows in general and especially over complex terrains, the flow can be difficult to be predicted accurately enough by using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Large- Eddy Simulation (LES) resolves the largest and thus most important turbulent eddies and models only the small-scale motions which are more universal than the large eddies and thus easier to model. Therefore, LES is expected to be more suitable for this kind of simulations although it is computationally more expensive than the RANS approach. With the fast development of computers and open-source CFD software during the recent years, the application of LES toward atmospheric flow is becoming increasingly common nowadays. The aim of the work is to simulate atmospheric flows over realistic and complex terrains by means of LES. Evaluation of potential in-land wind park locations will be the main application for these simulations. Development of the LES methodology to simulate the atmospheric flows over realistic terrains is reported in the thesis. The work also aims at validating the LES methodology at a real scale. In the thesis, LES are carried out for flow problems ranging from basic channel flows to real atmospheric flows over one of the most recent real-life complex terrain problems, the Bolund hill. All the simulations reported in the thesis are carried out using a new OpenFOAM® -based LES solver. The solver uses the 4th order time-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme and a fractional step method. Moreover, development of the LES methodology includes special attention to two boundary conditions: the upstream (inflow) and wall boundary conditions. The upstream boundary condition is generated by using the so-called recycling technique, in which the instantaneous flow properties are sampled on aplane downstream of the inlet and mapped back to the inlet at each time step. This technique develops the upstream boundary-layer flow together with the inflow turbulence without using any precursor simulation and thus within a single computational domain. The roughness of the terrain surface is modeled by implementing a new wall function into OpenFOAM® during the thesis work. Both, the recycling method and the newly implemented wall function, are validated for the channel flows at relatively high Reynolds number before applying them to the atmospheric flow applications. After validating the LES model over simple flows, the simulations are carried out for atmospheric boundary-layer flows over two types of hills: first, two-dimensional wind-tunnel hill profiles and second, the Bolund hill located in Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. For the twodimensional wind-tunnel hills, the study focuses on the overall flow behavior as a function of the hill slope. Moreover, the simulations are repeated using another wall function suitable for smooth surfaces, which already existed in OpenFOAM® , in order to study the sensitivity of the flow to the surface roughness in ABL flows. The simulated results obtained using the two wall functions are compared against the wind-tunnel measurements. It is shown that LES using the implemented wall function produces overall satisfactory results on the turbulent flow over the two-dimensional hills. The prediction of the flow separation and reattachment-length for the steeper hill is closer to the measurements than the other numerical studies reported in the past for the same hill geometry. The field measurement campaign performed over the Bolund hill provides the most recent field-experiment dataset for the mean flow and the turbulence properties. A number of research groups have simulated the wind flows over the Bolund hill. Due to the challenging features of the hill such as the almost vertical hill slope, it is considered as an ideal experimental test case for validating micro-scale CFD models for wind energy applications. In this work, the simulated results obtained for two wind directions are compared against the field measurements. It is shown that the present LES can reproduce the complex turbulent wind flow structures over a complicated terrain such as the Bolund hill. Especially, the present LES results show the best prediction of the turbulent kinetic energy with an average error of 24.1%, which is a 43% smaller than any other model results reported in the past for the Bolund case. Finally, the validated LES methodology is demonstrated to simulate the wind flow over the existing Muukko wind farm located in South-Eastern Finland. The simulation is carried out only for one wind direction and the results on the instantaneous and time-averaged wind speeds are briefly reported. The demonstration case is followed by discussions on the practical aspects of LES for the wind resource assessment over a realistic inland wind farm.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Power efficiency estimation and simulation of different control methods for the rotary screw compressor

Nowadays the energy efficiency has become one of the most concerned topics. Compressors are the equipment, which is very common in industry. Moreover, they tend to operate during long cycles and therefore even small decrease in power consumption can significantly reduce electricity costs during the year. And therefore it is important to investigate ways of increasing the energy efficiency of the compressors. In the thesis rotary screw compressor alongside with different control approaches is described. Simulation models for various control types of rotary screw compressor are developed. Analysis of laboratory equipment is conducted and results are compared with simulation. Suggestions of the real laboratory equipment improvement are given.

Optimization of the RNeasy Mini Kit to obtain high-quality total RNA from sessile cells of Staphylococcus aureus

Biofilm formed by Staphylococcus aureus is considered an important virulence trait in the pathogenesis of infections associated with implantable medical devices. Gene expression analyses are important strategies for determining the mechanisms involved in production and regulation of biofilm. Obtaining intact RNA preparations is the first and most critical step for these studies. In this article, we describe an optimized protocol for obtaining total RNA from sessile cells of S. aureus using the RNeasy Mini Kit. This method essentially consists of a few steps, as follows: 1) addition of acetone-ethanol to sessile cells, 2) lysis with lysostaphin at 37°C/10 min, 3) vigorous mixing, 4) three cycles of freezing and thawing, and 5) purification of the lysate in the RNeasy column. This simple pre-kit procedure yields high-quality total RNA from planktonic and sessile cells of S. aureus.

Novel control, haptic and calibration methods for teleoperated electrohydraulic servo systems

The aim of this thesis is to propose a novel control method for teleoperated electrohydraulic servo systems that implements a reliable haptic sense between the human and manipulator interaction, and an ideal position control between the manipulator and the task environment interaction. The proposed method has the characteristics of a universal technique independent of the actual control algorithm and it can be applied with other suitable control methods as a real-time control strategy. The motivation to develop this control method is the necessity for a reliable real-time controller for teleoperated electrohydraulic servo systems that provides highly accurate position control based on joystick inputs with haptic capabilities. The contribution of the research is that the proposed control method combines a directed random search method and a real-time simulation to develop an intelligent controller in which each generation of parameters is tested on-line by the real-time simulator before being applied to the real process. The controller was evaluated on a hydraulic position servo system. The simulator of the hydraulic system was built based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm combined with the foraging behavior of E. coli bacteria was utilized as the directed random search engine. The control strategy allows the operator to be plugged into the work environment dynamically and kinetically. This helps to ensure the system has haptic sense with high stability, without abstracting away the dynamics of the hydraulic system. The new control algorithm provides asymptotically exact tracking of both, the position and the contact force. In addition, this research proposes a novel method for re-calibration of multi-axis force/torque sensors. The method makes several improvements to traditional methods. It can be used without dismantling the sensor from its application and it requires smaller number of standard loads for calibration. It is also more cost efficient and faster in comparison to traditional calibration methods. The proposed method was developed in response to re-calibration issues with the force sensors utilized in teleoperated systems. The new approach aimed to avoid dismantling of the sensors from their applications for applying calibration. A major complication with many manipulators is the difficulty accessing them when they operate inside a non-accessible environment; especially if those environments are harsh; such as in radioactive areas. The proposed technique is based on design of experiment methodology. It has been successfully applied to different force/torque sensors and this research presents experimental validation of use of the calibration method with one of the force sensors which method has been applied to.

Optimization and validation of a methodology to determine total arsenic, As(III) and As(V), in water samples, through graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry

The Graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF AAS) was the technique chosen by the inorganic contamination laboratory (INCQ/ FIOCRUZ) to be validated and applied in routine analysis for arsenic detection and quantification. The selectivity, linearity, sensibility, detection, and quantification limits besides accuracy and precision parameters were studied and optimized under Stabilized Temperature Platform Furnace (STPF) conditions. The limit of detection obtained was 0.13 µg.L-1 and the limit of quantification was 1.04 µg.L-1, with an average precision, for total arsenic, less than 15% and an accuracy of 96%. To quantify the chemical species As(III) and As(V), an ion-exchange resin (Dowex 1X8, Cl- form) was used and the physical-chemical parameters were optimized resulting in a recuperation of 98% of As(III) and of 90% of As(V). The method was applied to groundwater, mineral water, and hemodialysis purified water samples. All results obtained were lower than the maximum limit values established by the legal Brazilian regulations, in effect, 50, 10, and 5 µg.L-1 para As total, As(III) e As(V), respectively. All results were statistically evaluated.

Optimization of the extraction of carrageenan from Kappaphycus alvarezii using response surface methodology

This study aims to optimize an alternative method of extraction of carrageenan without previous alkaline treatment and ethanol precipitation using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). In order to introduce an innovation in the isolation step, atomization drying was used reducing the time for obtaining dry carrageenan powder. The effects of extraction time and temperature on yield, gel strength, and viscosity were evaluated. Furthermore, the extracted material was submitted to structural analysis, by infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-NMR), and chemical composition analysis. Results showed that the generated regression models adequately explained the data variation. Carrageenan yield and gel viscosity were influenced only by the extraction temperature. However, gel strength was influenced by both, extraction time and extraction temperature. Optimal extraction conditions were 74 ºC and 4 hours. In these conditions, the carrageenan extract properties determined by the polynomial model were 31.17%, 158.27 g.cm-2, and 29.5 cP for yield, gel strength, and viscosity, respectively, while under the experimental conditions they were 35.8 ± 4.68%, 112.50 ± 4.96 g.cm-2, and 16.01 ± 1.03 cP, respectively. The chemical composition, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and infrared spectroscopy analyses showed that the crude carrageenan extracted is composed mainly of κ-carrageenan.

Optimization of image analysis techniques for quality assessment of whole-wheat breads made with fat replacer

The cellular structure of healthy food products, with added dietary fiber and low in calories, is an important factor that contributes to the assessment of quality, which can be quantified by image analysis of visual texture. This study seeks to compare image analysis techniques (binarization using Otsu’s method and the default ImageJ algorithm, a variation of the iterative intermeans method) for quantification of differences in the crumb structure of breads made with different percentages of whole-wheat flour and fat replacer, and discuss the behavior of the parameters number of cells, mean cell area, cell density, and circularity using response surface methodology. Comparative analysis of the results achieved with the Otsu and default ImageJ algorithms showed a significant difference between the studied parameters. The Otsu method demonstrated the crumb structure of the analyzed breads more reliably than the default ImageJ algorithm, and is thus the most suitable in terms of structural representation of the crumb texture.

Optimization of the HS-SPME-GC/MS technique for determining volatile compounds in red wines made from Isabel grapes (Vitis labrusca)

Abstract Brazilian wine production is characterized by Vitis labrusca grape varieties, especially the economically important Isabel cultivar, with over 80% of its production destined for table wine production. The objective of this study was to optimize and validate the conditions for extracting volatile compounds from wine with the solid-phase microextraction technique, using the response surface method. Based on the response surface analysis, it can be concluded that the central point values maximize the process of extracting volatile compounds from wine, i.e., an equilibrium time of 15 minutes, an extraction time of 35 minutes, and an extraction temperature of 30 °C. Esters were the most numerous compounds found under these extraction conditions, indicating that wines made from Isabel cultivar grapes are characterized by compounds that confer a fruity aroma; this finding corroborates the scientific literature.

Mechanical design and optics simulation of the illuminated Volvo Iron mark

Utilization of light and illumination systems in automotive industry for different purposes has been increased significantly in recent years. Volvo as one of the leading companies in manufacturing of luxury cars has found the great capacity in this area. The performance of such an illumination systems is one of the challenges that engineers in this industry are facing with. In this study an effort has been made to design a system to make the iron mark of Volvo being illuminated and the system is being evaluated by optics simulation in software using Ray optics method. At the end, results are assessed and some optimizations are carried out. Different kind of light guides, front side of the iron mark and some possible arrangement for LED also evaluated and different materials tested. The best combination from uniformity, color and amount of luminance aspect selected as a possible solution for this special project which can be used as a base for further studies in Volvo.

Optimization of Transportation System by Tailored Logistics Network: A Case Study in Automotive Industry

This thesis aims to redesign the supply chain system in an automotive industry in order to obtain space reduction in the inventory by using tailored logistics network. The redesigning process by tailored supply chain will combine all possible shipment methods including direct shipment, milk-run, milk-run via distribution center and Kanban delivery. The current supply chain system in Nissan goes rather well when the production volume is in moderate level. However, when the production volume is high, there is a capacity problem in the warehouse to accommodate all delivered parts from suppliers. Hence, the optimization of supply chain system is needed in order to obtain efficient logistics process and effective inventory consumption. The study will use primary data for both qualitative and quantitative approach as the research methods. Qualitative data will be collected by conducting interviews with people related to procurement and inventory control. Quantitative data consists of list of suppliers with their condition in several parameters which will be evaluated and analyzed by using scoring method to assign the most suitable transportation network to each suppliers for improvement of inventory reduction in a cost efficient manner.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.

GIS-based approach for optimization of onshore wind park infrastructure alignment in Finland

Wind power is a rapidly developing, low-emission form of energy production. In Fin-land, the official objective is to increase wind power capacity from the current 1 005 MW up to 3 500–4 000 MW by 2025. By the end of April 2015, the total capacity of all wind power project being planned in Finland had surpassed 11 000 MW. As the amount of projects in Finland is record high, an increasing amount of infrastructure is also being planned and constructed. Traditionally, these planning operations are conducted using manual and labor-intensive work methods that are prone to subjectivity. This study introduces a GIS-based methodology for determining optimal paths to sup-port the planning of onshore wind park infrastructure alignment in Nordanå-Lövböle wind park located on the island of Kemiönsaari in Southwest Finland. The presented methodology utilizes a least-cost path (LCP) algorithm for searching of optimal paths within a high resolution real-world terrain dataset derived from airborne lidar scannings. In addition, planning data is used to provide a realistic planning framework for the anal-ysis. In order to produce realistic results, the physiographic and planning datasets are standardized and weighted according to qualitative suitability assessments by utilizing methods and practices offered by multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The results are pre-sented as scenarios to correspond various different planning objectives. Finally, the methodology is documented by using tools of Business Process Management (BPM). The results show that the presented methodology can be effectively used to search and identify extensive, 20 to 35 kilometers long networks of paths that correspond to certain optimization objectives in the study area. The utilization of high-resolution terrain data produces a more objective and more detailed path alignment plan. This study demon-strates that the presented methodology can be practically applied to support a wind power infrastructure alignment planning process. The six-phase structure of the method-ology allows straightforward incorporation of different optimization objectives. The methodology responds well to combining quantitative and qualitative data. Additional-ly, the careful documentation presents an example of how the methodology can be eval-uated and developed as a business process. This thesis also shows that more emphasis on the research of algorithm-based, more objective methods for the planning of infrastruc-ture alignment is desirable, as technological development has only recently started to realize the potential of these computational methods.