973 resultados para Prediction theory


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Organisational dependence upon IT continues to grow yet experiences of satisfaction vary widely. Problematic, aged IT is often cited as being a fundamental problem in this respect and this is commonly termed legacy information systems. However, in this paper the author offers an alternative, and arguably more comprehensive, theory of legacy information systems that accommodates multiple viewpoints and recognises its inherent dynamism. The paper suggests a theory of legacy information systems that comprises of the concepts of temporal effects, interpretations and characteristics. It is argued that legacy information systems are constructed of many ‘legacies’ that are handed down continuously, forming an amorphous set of sociotechnical interdependencies and relationships.

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In 2001 45% (2.7 billion) of the world’s population of approximately 6.1 billion lived in ‘moderate poverty’ on less than US $ 2 per person per day (World Population Summary, 2012). In the last 60 years there have been many theories attempting to explain development, why some countries have the fastest growth in history, while others stagnate and so far no way has been found to explain the differences. Traditional views imply that development is the aggregation of successes from multiple individual business enterprises, but this ignores the interactions between and among institutions, organisations and individuals in the economy, which can often have unpredictable effects. Complexity Development Theory proposes that by viewing development as an emergent property of society, we can help create better development programs at the organisational, institutional and national levels. This paper asks how the principals of CAS can be used to develop CDT principals used to develop and operate development programs at the bottom of the pyramid in developing economies. To investigate this research question we conduct a literature review to define and describe CDT and create propositions for testing. We illustrate these propositions using a case study of an Asset Based Community Development (ABCD) Program for existing and nascent entrepreneurs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We found evidence that all the principals of CDT were related to the characteristics of CAS. If this is the case, development programs will be able to select which CAS needed to test these propositions.

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This is the third TAProViz workshop being run at BPM. The intention this year is to consolidate on the results of the previous successful workshops by further developing this important topic, identifying the key research topics of interest to the BPM visualization community. We note this year the continuing interest in the visualisation of process mining data and resultant process models. More info at: http://wst.univie.ac.at/topics/taproviz14/

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Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

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A system is something that can be separated from its surrounds, but this definition leaves much scope for refinement. Starting with the notion of measurement, we explore increasingly contextual system behaviour, and identify three major forms of contextuality that might be exhibited by a system: (a) between components; (b) between system and experimental method, and; (c) between a system and its environment. Quantum Theory is shown to provide a highly useful formalism from which all three forms of contextuality can be analysed, offering numerous tests for contextual behaviour, as well as modelling possibilities for systems that do indeed display it. I conclude with the introduction of a Contextualised General Systems Theory based upon an extension of this formalism.

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The purpose of this book by two Australian authors is to: introduce the audience to the full complement of contextual elements found within program theory; offer practical suggestions to engage with theories of change, theories of action and logic models; and provide substantial evidence for this approach through scholarly literature, practice case studies together with the authors' combined experience of 60 years.

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Building information models are increasingly being utilised for facility management of large facilities such as critical infrastructures. In such environments, it is valuable to utilise the vast amount of data contained within the building information models to improve access control administration. The use of building information models in access control scenarios can provide 3D visualisation of buildings as well as many other advantages such as automation of essential tasks including path finding, consistency detection, and accessibility verification. However, there is no mathematical model for building information models that can be used to describe and compute these functions. In this paper, we show how graph theory can be utilised as a representation language of building information models and the proposed security related functions. This graph-theoretic representation allows for mathematically representing building information models and performing computations using these functions.

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The Queensland University of Technology Research Team has recently edited a book on the idea of information experience. Authors from many parts of the world and focussed on many contexts have contributed chapters. The book represents the first attempt to profile and discuss information experience as a research domain and a research object, together with emphasis on different theories and methods being used in workplace, educational and community contexts. In this session members of the editorial team will introduce the book. We anticipate it will be of interest to any information professionals, students or researchers interested in understanding peoples' information experience.

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INTRODUCTION: The shortage of nurses willing to work in rural Australian healthcare settings continues to worsen. Australian rural areas have a lower retention rate of nurses than metropolitan counterparts, with more remote communities experiencing an even higher turnover of nursing staff. When retention rates are lower, patient outcomes are known to be poorer. This article reports a study that sought to explore the reasons why registered nurses resign from rural hospitals in the state of New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Using grounded theory methods, this study explored the reasons why registered nurses resigned from New South Wales rural hospitals. Data were collected from 12 participants using semi-structured interviews; each participant was a registered nurse who had resigned from a rural hospital. Nurses who had resigned due to retirement, relocation or maternity leave were excluded. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and imported into NVivo software. The constant comparative method of data collection and analysis was followed until a core category emerged. RESULTS: Nurses resigned from rural hospitals when their personal value of how nursing should occur conflicted with the hospital's organisational values driving the practice of nursing. These conflicting values led to a change in the degree of value alignment between the nurse and hospital. The degree of value alignment occurred in three dynamic stages that nurses moved through prior to resigning. The first stage, sharing values, was a time when a nurse and a hospital shared similar values. The second stage was conceding values where, due to perceived changes in a hospital's values, a nurse felt that patient care became compromised and this led to a divergence of values. The final stage was resigning, a stage where a nurse 'gave up' as they felt that their professional integrity was severely compromised. The findings revealed that when a nurse and organisational values were not aligned, conflict was created for a nurse about how they could perform nursing that aligned with their internalised professional values and integrity. Resignation occurred when nurses were unable to realign their personal values to changed organisational values - the organisational values changed due to rural area health service restructures, centralisation of budgets and resources, cumbersome hierarchies and management structures that inhibited communication and decision making, out-dated and ineffective operating systems, insufficient and inexperienced staff, bullying, and a lack of connectedness and shared vision. CONCLUSIONS: To fully comprehend rural nurse resignations, this study identified three stages that nurses move through prior to resignation. Effective retention strategies for the nursing workforce should address contributors to a decrease in value alignment and work towards encouraging the coalescence of nurses' and hospitals' values. It is imperative that strategies enable nurses to provide high quality patient care and promote a sense of connectedness and a shared vision between nurse and hospital. Senior managers need to have clear ways to articulate and imbue organisational values and be explicit in how these values accommodate nurses' values. Ward-level nurse managers have a significant responsibility to ensure that a hospital's values (both explicit and implicit) are incorporated into ward culture.

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This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.